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Scouts Inc.- Steve Muench played four years of Division I-AA football before joining Scouts Inc. in 2002. He has evaluated both NFL and college players for Scouts Inc., but his current focus is on the NFL draft.
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Scouts Inc.- QB for IUP (Indiana University of Pennsylvania) from 2003-2006
- With Scouts Inc. since the fall of 2007
Forget next season. Forget next month. And forget the 2016 NFL draft.
If you had to win just one college football game, for the national title this week, who would you take from the rosters of Alabama and Clemson?
Would you take Derrick Henry ahead of Shaq Lawson? And Deshaun Watson, or someone from Alabama's ridiculous defensive line depth chart?
We asked Scouts Inc.'s Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl to alternate 20 picks and work their way through the rosters of both teams who will face off on Jan. 11 in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T. Muench received the pretend first overall pick in this imaginary draft, because Muench's top two quarterbacks from a team that doesn't actually exist just transferred to Weidl's school, which also is not real.
No. 1 pick: Muench takes Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Watson threw what could have been a costly pick against Oklahoma and struggled to locate the strike zone at times. Yet I have no reservations about taking him first. He's streaky but he's an effective short-to-intermediate passer when he gets into a rhythm, and he has the arm strength to take the top off the coverage. Plus, it's his ability to make plays with his feet that sets him apart. He's a talented runner with above average instincts, quickness and speed. He has rushed for over 100 yards in five of his past six games and eight touchdowns during that span.
No. 2 pick: Weidl takes Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
From a statistical standpoint, Henry is coming off of a subpar performance against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl. However, credit needs to go to offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, who designed a great game plan for attacking the Spartans through the air. While there is some debate on Henry's pro potential, there is no questioning the value Henry has brought to the Crimson Tide offense.
No. 3 pick: Muench takes Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
The surplus of talent along these defensive lines had me considering going in another direction, but I ultimately couldn't convince myself to pass on Allen here. At 6-foot-3 and 283 pounds, he is an effective interior pass-rusher with the violent hands to get off blocks, the brute strength to drive blockers back into a quarterbacks' laps and enough quickness to occasionally split seams in pass protection. He's also coming off an impressive performance against Michigan State, when he recorded his 11th and 12th sacks of the year. Finally, he's not just a one-dimensional pass-rusher; he's a capable run-stuffer who shows the ability to stack blockers and disrupt the occasional play in the backfield.
No. 4 pick: Weidl takes Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
I'm a big fan of Allen, so it's hard to argue with Muench's pick. In fact, I had Ragland and Allen as the top two defensive players on my board, with Ragland slightly ahead of Allen. Knowing Muench's opinion on both players, I figured I was going to get only one of the two, either way. Ragland, a 250-pound senior, is a versatile three-down linebacker who has been the linchpin of what I believe is one of the deepest and most versatile fronts college football has ever seen. Ragland has very good range for his size and knock-back power as a tackler, and he has shown the ability to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks both as a blitzer and as an edge rusher on third down situations.
No. 5 pick: Muench takes Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
Teams have had a difficult time keeping the 6-foot-3, 270-pound Lawson out of the backfield, as he has racked up 23.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks this year. He's quick enough to slip blocks, plus he has the length and strength to drive blockers back. As a pass-rusher, he can beat offensive tackles around the edge, redirect inside when tackles take away the outside and drive through linemen when necessary. A knee injury forced him to miss most of the semifinal game against Oklahoma, but Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney is "very optimistic" that Lawson will play against Alabama, and with that in mind, I'm excited about landing him at No. 5 .
No. 6 pick: Weidl takes Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
Alabama needed a receiver to emerge, and the highly-touted recruit has filled that role admirably in his first season. He shows good polish as a route runner and has an extra gear tracking down the deep ball. He also has shown the ability to create after the catch and is a threat to take it the distance when finding green grass. Ridley has come on strong lately for Alabama, accumulating a combined 16 catches for 240 yards and two touchdowns against Florida and Michigan State. Most importantly, Ridley has provided a home run threat on the perimeter that prevents teams from loading up the box to stop Henry and the run game.
No. 7 pick: Muench takes Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
Ridley is by far the best receiver in this group and a good value at No. 6, especially when you consider his progression this year. However, there were a few players that would have been good values at No. 6, and Ridley wasn't the best among them on my board. Reed was. The 6-foot-4, 323-pounder is a stout run defender with the heavy hands to get off blocks once he locates the ball, and his ability to generate push as a pass-rusher makes it tough for quarterbacks to step up. (While this is a college football draft, it's still worth noting that he currently grades out as the No. 6 overall prospect on our board.)
No. 8 pick: Weidl takes Tim Williams, DE, Alabama
Williams exploded onto the scene this year with 10.5 sacks. He flashes explosive first-step quickness and adequate flexibility to win with speed, while also showing quality speed-to-power capabilities. Williams isn't a full-time starter, but I like his value and matchup for the title game. Clemson will look to spread the Alabama defense out, and it will be imperative that the Tide are able to apply pressure on Watson by rushing just four defenders at times. Williams has finally provided Alabama with a pure edge rusher that they have been lacking over the years, and he will have a chance to make a significant impact in this game.
No. 9 pick: Muench takes A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
That's early at No. 8 for a situational player who had better stay in his rushing lane when he's applying that pressure. Meanwhile, I've landed the Tide's top three defensive linemen in Allen, Reed and now Robinson, whose versatility makes them that much harder to handle . The 6-foot-4, 312-pound Robinson is an effective interior run-stopper who can line up on the inside next to Reed, allowing Allen to set the edge at defensive end in run-heavy situations. Robinson can move outside, where he has the power to push offensive tackles and make it tough for the quarterback to get outside, which allows Allen to rush from the inside (where he's most dangerous) in pass-heavy situations.
No. 10 pick: Weidl takes Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
Very predictable No. 9 pick and response by Muench. While Robinson is a talented player, unfortunately Alabama is not playing Michigan State and its pro-style attack again on Monday. Styles make fights, and Clemson will undoubtedly look to spread the Tide out and attack the perimeter with tempo to try and neutralize the advantage the Tide have up front. That said, I don't value the run-stopping defensive tackles as highly as Muench for this matchup and therefore will take Alexander, who I believe will play a much more impactful role. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has been masterful designing calculated downfield shots off play-action to a pair of speedsters in Ridley and fellow WR ArDarius Stewart. Alexander is the best pure cover corner in this game and has the talent to hold up with either receiver on an island.
No. 11 pick: Muench takes Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson
No. 12 pick: Weidl takes Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
No. 13 pick: Muench takes Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
No. 14 pick: Weidl takes BJ Goodson, LB, Clemson
No. 15 pick: Muench takes Ben Boulware, DB, Clemson
No. 16 pick: Weidl takes Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
No. 17 pick: Muench takes Cordrea Tankersley, CB, Clemson
No. 18 pick: Weidl takes ArDarius Stewart, RB, Alabama
No. 19 pick: Muench takes Jordan Leggett, TE, Clemson
No. 20 pick: Weidl takes Jayron Kearse, CB, Clemson
Next best available
Weidl: 1. Alabama CB/PR Cyrus Jones; 2. Clemson DT Christian Wilkins; 3. Alabama OLB Ryan Anderson; 4. Alabama C Ryan Kelly; 5. Alabama RB Kenyan Drake.
Muench: 1. Alabama OLB Ryan Anderson; 2. Clemson S T.J. Green; 3. Clemson DT Christian Wilkins; 4. Clemson OT Mitch Hyatt; 5. Alabama CB/PR Cyrus Jones.
Predictions
Muench: Alabama 24, Clemson 20
Look for Watson to flash his big-play ability as a runner, but he'll need to exploit mistakes. As much as Clemson's offensive line has exceeded expectations this year, the Tide have the talent and depth up front to control the line of scrimmage. They'll make it tough for Watson and Gallman to find room to work between the tackles. The second level of the run defense, starting with Ragland, covers enough ground and tackles well enough to make it difficult for Watson & Co. to get outside.
Alabama also has the power rushers to collapse the pocket without getting caught out of rush lanes. As a passer, Watson has the arm strength to strike deep, but the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams to a neck injury in the season opener robbed him of his best vertical threat. While he has the quick release, Watson is a streaky short-to-intermediate passer, and Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart won't make it easy for him to get comfortable.
The most intriguing matchup when Alabama has the ball will be offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin facing Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables. Venables has the front seven to slow Henry and make it tougher for quarterback Jake Coker to dink-and-dunk by crowding the line of scrimmage with his talented corners.
On the other hand, the Tide offensive line matches up with the Clemson front better than vice versa, and Kiffin excels at finding ways to get the hands into of his playmakers, starting with Ridley. In the end, Alabama's front seven and Kiffin's ability to keep the Tigers off-balance will end in Alabama head coach Nick Saban hoisting another championship trophy.
Weidl: Alabama 30, Clemson 16
The matchup I'm most looking forward to seeing is Watson and the Clemson offense going up against a Tide defense. The Tigers' spread offense and the mobility of Watson will be a tougher matchup for the Alabama defense than the pro-style offense presented by Michigan State.
However, two things give the advantage to Alabama in my opinion:
First and foremost is their front seven, which is the deepest and most versatile I've ever studied in college football, with four potential top-40 picks in this year's NFL draft.
Secondly, the Tide secondary is much improved this year and has done a nice job of minimizing big plays through the air.
Alabama has a distinctive advantage in the trenches, and its ability to rotate fresh bodies on a regular basis will wear on the Tigers' offensive line. That said, Clemson must be able to piece together success on early downs to stay ahead of the chains, where they can then use up-tempo plays to try to neutralize the Tides' advantage up front.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Tigers' defense also has been playing well. It has the front seven to give Henry and the Alabama rushing attack problems and matches up well in the secondary against the Tide's perimeter. However, Alabama has been getting better balanced offensively thanks to improved play from Coker, and Kiffin has done a great job of mixing up looks and play calls.
At the end of the day, I give the advantage to Alabama in this one. Watson's dual-threat capabilities will keep the Tigers' in the game early on. However, look for the Tide's defensive line to eventually overwhelm Clemson up front and put the brakes on this offense in the second half. Offensively, Alabama will have to earn their points, but look for them to make enough plays to get a comfortable lead and eventually lean on Henry to close out the game.