This article is part of our Summer Stock series, a three-week look at the programs generating the most buzz coming out of spring practice.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
When Brian Kelly took the Notre Dame job in December 2009, fans were primed for the high-powered spread offense he'd featured in his four years at Cincinnati, when his teams combined for a 41-12 record. After all, the year before Kelly arrived in South Bend, his Bearcats were fourth in the country in scoring offense (38.6 points per game) and second in passing efficiency (161.21). They'd even averaged 138.7 yards rushing, more than all but one of Charlie Weis' teams in his five years as Fighting Irish head coach.
But while the Notre Dame defense improved over its 2009 output, making huge jumps in categories like scoring defense (from 63rd in the nation to 23rd), interceptions (50th to 19th) and sacks (89th to 54th), the new offense needed more time to take root. Now, a year later, is it ready to produce?
With the quarterback situation and the status of star wideout Michael Floyd still up in the air, it's hard to say with complete certainty. But if the numbers are any indication, the offense has a chance to show improvement -- and a run to a BCS bowl game could follow.
Here's some good news for Irish fans: With Kelly, the second year may be the charm. In his second season at Cincinnati, the Bearcats' scoring offense improved by 15 points per game, and the team's passing efficiency soared from 45th in the nation to eighth. Both categories are critical to success in college football, and even a modest improvement in these areas would go a long way toward allowing this Notre Dame team to take the next step. (How important is QB rating? Seven of the top eight teams in passing efficiency last season finished in the top 10 of the final AP poll. The eighth, the Arkansas Razorbacks, finished the year at No. 12.)
First, though, the coaches need to settle on a QB. A Week 9 injury to Dayne Crist, his second knee injury in as many years, set back his development at a time when both Kelly and offensive coordinator Charley Molnar thought their then-junior quarterback was just starting to understand the nuances of the new offense. Following that game, a 28-27 home loss to the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Notre Dame's season looked irredeemable.
Then a funny thing happened: The Irish rallied behind freshman Tommy Rees, finishing the season 4-0, including the Irish's first win against USC since 2001 and a Sun Bowl victory over the Miami Hurricanes.
Now that Crist has healed from surgery to repair the ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee, he'll have to prove to the staff that he can be more of the accurate, heady passer they saw in Rees down the stretch. "Handling those seven to eight throws a game when the protection's right, the receiver's open, you've got the right scheme, and all you have to do is execute -- that would be the key for Dayne to solidify his hold on the job," Molnar says.
The Irish went 4-5 in Crist starts last year (though that includes the Tulsa loss, in which he threw only two passes before being injured), and while his passing efficiency rating was a bit lower than that of Rees (129.3 versus 132.0), he faced tougher defenses along the way. To wit: Crist's opponents, on average, ranked 59th nationally in pass efficiency D, while the teams Rees faced ranked 72nd.
If Crist needs to improve his decision-making and completion rate, then Rees has to do a better job getting the ball downfield. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound sophomore showed himself to be an impressive leader at the end of 2010, and while he's not known for his strong arm like the 6-foot-4, 235-pound Crist, Rees' 11.1 yards per completion isn't far off Crist's 11.7. "He showed some signs this spring of really airing the ball out and putting it on the money," Molnar says. "If he can do that on a consistent basis, it'll be hard to beat him out."
Regardless of whether Crist or Rees gets the starting nod, it remains to be seen who will be on the receiving end of passes this year. Losing the dynamic Floyd -- who led the team last season with 79 receptions for 1,025 yards and 12 touchdowns but was suspended March 21 after his third alcohol-related brush with the law since 2009 -- would be a huge blow to the Irish offense, which already had to deal with the early draft entry of stud tight end Kyle Rudolph, the Vikings' second-round pick. "It's always difficult to replace an All-American receiver," Molnar says. "Regardless, we've got a Plan A with Mike Floyd, and we've got a Plan B moving on without Michael."
If they have to go to Plan B, the Irish will need production from wideouts Theo Riddick and T.J. Jones, as well as from junior tight end Tyler Eifert. The team could afford to improve upon last season's 6.8 yards per attempt average.
Notre Dame's defense will take all the help it can get. After an ascendant 2010, the Irish D returns eight players who started at least eight games last season, including junior linebacker and All-America candidate Manti Te'o, who led the team with 133 tackles. With the addition of freshman pass-rushers Ishaq Williams, Stephon Tuitt and Aaron Lynch -- the 6-foot-6, 260-pound freshman from Cape Coral, Fla., who turned heads with seven tackles, including 1.5 for a loss, in the spring game -- Notre Dame could start to approximate Kelly's high-pressure Cincinnati defenses that consistently ranked among the nation's elite in sacks, interceptions and TFLs (all important stat categories in the Eliminator rankings).
In the secondary, fifth-year senior safety Harrison Smith (93 tackles, seven interceptions) leads a veteran unit that helped the Irish post a defensive passing efficiency rating of 115.75, good for 25th in the country and a significant improvement over the 2009 pass D (134.76, 82nd). While the Irish had their share of luck last year -- who can forget USC's Ronald Johnson dropping a potential game-winning touchdown with just over a minute to go in Notre Dame's 20-16 win? -- they did finish the season 25th in defensive FEI, Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Irish ranked 69th in 2009.
The offense, on the other hand, finished 42nd in the country in FEI last season. But given Kelly's history and a manageable 2011 schedule -- only Stanford looks like a top-10 team, and like other ND opponents, such as Michigan, Pitt and Maryland, the Cardinal went through an offseason coaching change -- Notre Dame should be able to boost that number by season's end. If Floyd is back in the fold, and the winner of the Crist/Rees battle plays to expectations, Kelly might become known for the two-year turnaround. And as Bruce Feldman notes (see box, above right), that could be enough to land the Irish in a BCS bowl.
Ian Gordon covers college basketball and college football for ESPN Insider. A former contributing editor at ESPN The Magazine, he is currently a San Francisco Bay Area-based freelance writer. He is a regular contributor to The Mag and Insider, writing mostly about college hoops and baseball. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.