The Florida Gators and Alabama Crimson Tide fans might not want to hear it -- but there wasn't much separating the 2008 Gators team that won the SEC and BCS titles from the 2009 Crimson Tide squad that did the same.
Nobody is confusing Tim Tebow with Greg McElroy at the college level (yet), but the point is that there are basic similarities among all conference and BCS champions.
We ran the stats of every Division I team, looking specifically at the national and conference champions of the past several years, to find out what statistical categories correlate to college football success. Then we set statistical benchmarks for each league to see what's been required for each conference champion (for example, you better score a lot of points if you want to win the Pac-10; in the ACC, not so much).
We'll be checking back weekly by midseason in order to show how conference leaders and contenders are doing against our model -- but this serves as an introduction to "The Eliminator" (an earlier version appeared in ESPN The Magazine's 2008 college football preview issue).
Take a look below to see what it takes to win each league, and find out what teams and stats to keep an eye on this season.
STAT RESOURCES: ESPN ACC statistics, ACC website
OFFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Score 21.6 or more points per game
Have a field goal percentage of 70 percent or better
Average 3.25 yards per carry or better
DEFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Hold opponents to 24.8 points per game or fewer
Average 4.9 tackles for loss per game or more
SPECIAL TEAMS BENCHMARKS
Average 2.6 punts per game or fewer
Explanation: North Carolina Tar Heels defensive end Robert Quinn told Sports Illustrated this summer that if the Tar Heels' offense can score 21 points per game in 2010, his team should be in good shape. According to the Eliminator, Quinn came very close: The Tar Heels will need to score 21.6 points per game to win the ACC title. As you can see, champs historically haven't needed to score a lot of points -- or stop other teams from scoring a lot of points -- to win the ACC. But they have needed a good kicker. Not only do ACC champs make more field goals than those of other conferences, but they connect on their attempts at a better clip. Of all the conferences, the ACC is the most wide open from an Eliminator standpoint: Last season, three teams (Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Miami Hurricanes and UNC) met all six benchmarks, while two-thirds of the league met four or more.
What to watch for: Among ACC title contenders, Miami has the best kicking situation with senior Matt Bosher and his 88 percent field goal percentage returning. UNC is in good shape as well, with junior Casey Barth (21-for-25 last season).
Keep up with conference trends all season via the ACC blog.
STAT RESOURCES: ESPN Big 12 statistics, Big 12 website
OFFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Score 30.3 points per game or more
Have a QB rating of 138 or better
Have a red zone scoring percentage of 88 percent or better
DEFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Hold opponents to 24.5 points per game or fewer
Have 1.3 interceptions per game or more
Hold opponents to fewer than 130.92 rushing yards per game
Explanation: The Big 12 is the league known for its prolific passing attacks, but when it comes to team success, quarterback rating is more important than total yardage or TDs. Efficiency also comes into play in the red zone, where Big 12 championship hopefuls must be sharp. For these reasons, the Horns' Colt McCoy was the difference in the Big 12 last season, giving Texas an edge over closest Eliminator competition Oklahoma and Texas Tech (four benchmarks met each). On defense, teams need to take advantage of the interception opportunities created by the pass-happy offenses while controlling opponents' running games.
What to watch for: Question marks dot the quarterback situations of several contenders, including Nebraska (Zac Lee is the likely starter) and Texas (Garrett Gilbert was thrown into the fire in the BCS title game, and now the reins are his). The only returning quarterback who surpassed the 138.24 efficiency mark last season is Mizzou's Blaine Gabbert.
Keep up with conference trends all season via the Big 12 blog.
STAT RESOURCES: ESPN Big East statistics, Big East website
OFFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Average 25.9 points per game or more
Have a red zone scoring percentage of 82 or better
Post a 135 passing efficiency rating or better
DEFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Hold opponents to 24 points per game or fewer
Hold opponents to 3.81 yards per carry or less
Average 6.71 TFL per game or more
Explanation: The Big East is a conference in which a lot of teams can get bunched together in the middle to top of the league, but quarterback play often can be the determining factor. Cincinnati's Tony Pike and Pittsburgh's Bill Stull helped their teams clear all six benchmarks last season. Looking for this season's sleepers? Rutgers passed three categories and had arguably the league's best defense, and QB Tom Savage could be much better in his second season. B.J. Daniels was efficient enough last season to keep South Florida (four of six benchmarks cleared) in the mix, while Kirk Herbstreit's dark horse pick in the Big East, Connecticut, cleared four as well.
What to watch for: Keep an eye on game-breaking WRs like Pittsburgh's Jon Baldwin, West Virginia's Jock Sanders and Cincinnati's Vidal Hazelton -- they should help boost their QBs' passer ratings.
Keep up with conference trends all season via the Big East blog.
STAT RESOURCES: ESPN Big Ten statistics, Big Ten website
OFFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Score 29 points per game or more
Have a third-down conversion percentage of 42 or better
Rush for 153.58 yards per game or more
DEFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Hold opponents to 23.3 points per game or fewer
Hold opponents to 3.64 yards per rush or fewer
Average 2.31 sacks per game or better
Explanation: Things seem pretty simple in the Big Ten: Run the ball and stop the run. It's more complicated than that, of course, but those two things have been essential to becoming a Big Ten champion. Just as important, however, is third-down conversion percentage, which is a very strong indicator of college football success.
What to watch for: The Buckeyes return 15 starters from a team that bounced back to clip the statistically inferior Penn State and Iowa last season. On sleeper watch, Wisconsin's offense last season made it a premier Eliminator team (the Badgers met all six benchmarks, tied for tops with the Buckeyes). Meanwhile, here's a case for Iowa's stellar '09 campaign being a fluke: The Hawkeyes passed only three of six Eliminator benchmarks last season -- and none of the offensive indicators.
Keep up with conference trends all season via the Big Ten blog.
STAT RESOURCES: ESPN Pac-10 statistics, CFBStats on Pac-10
OFFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Score at least 30.5 points per game
Have a completion percentage of 58 or better
Average 4.08 yards per carry or better
Post a turnover margin of 0.15/per game or better
DEFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Hold opponents to 23.8 points per game or fewer
Hold opponents to a 38.74 third-down conversion percentage or less
Explanation: Pac-10 champs are dangerous on offense both in the running game and the passing game, but keep an eye on that completion percentage number, as it's more important than the number of TDs a QB is throwing. Turnover margin matters out west, as well; only the Pac-10 and SEC have a benchmark in this category on the right side of 0.
What to watch for: Some rising stars (Jake Locker, Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley) and untested first-year starters (Darron Thomas, Ryan Katz) are lining up at QB for Pac-10 contenders, and they'll need to be accurate throwing the football for their teams to succeed. Cal, Arizona and UCLA haven't gotten much preseason buzz, but all three were solid Eliminator teams last season (three of six benchmarks), so don't rule out one of those schools achieving sleeper status in 2010.
Keep up with conference trends all season via the Pac-10 blog.
STAT RESOURCES: ESPN SEC statistics, SEC website
OFFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Score 29.5 points per game or more
Have a turnover margin per game average of 0.31 or better
Rush for 4.31 yards per carry or more
DEFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Hold opponents to 19.9 points per game or fewer
Hold opponents to a 110.88 quarterback rating or lower
Average 2.21 sacks or more per game
Explanation: Unsurprisingly, SEC champs dominate the defensive indicators for team success, meaning that this season's champ better be able to keep the reins on opponents' offenses. Champions also must do well at producing takeaways, protecting the football, getting big production out of their running games and getting after the quarterback. SEC champs have held opponents to an unreal 110.88 (or lower) quarterback rating.
What to watch for: SEC teams are as good as anybody in the country at harassing quarterbacks (high sacks per game and defensive passing efficiency numbers), and everyone from Florida to LSU to Alabama to Ole Miss should have a formidable group of guys applying the pressure this season. Sleeper watch: The Rebels might have been better last season than some gave them credit for, clearing five of six benchmarks (third behind perfect Alabama and Florida).
Keep up with conference trends all season via the SEC blog.
STAT RESOURCES: ESPN college football statistics, NCAA website
OFFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Average 29.7 points per game or more
Average 160 rushing yards per game
Have a QB rating of 133.63 or better
Have a 0.36 turnover margin or better
DEFENSIVE BENCHMARKS
Hold opponents to 19.9 points per game or fewer
Average 2.29 sacks per game or more
Explanation: The turnover game becomes even more important when the stakes are raised at the BCS title level, while an efficient QB and a formidable ground game are musts as well. When it comes to the national championship Eliminator, there's even less room for error, as no top-10 finisher met fewer than three benchmarks last season.
What to watch for: Three teams from this season's top 10 cleared all six benchmarks last season: Alabama (of course), Florida and Virginia Tech. A season-opening win over Boise State (the Broncos, by the way, missed the sacks benchmark last season) could vault the Hokies into the national title conversation, and with eight starters back on offense, they have the Eliminator blueprint to pull it off. Defensive-minded teams like Ohio State, Iowa and Nebraska will have to generate some more O in 2010 if they hope to clear all six benchmarks -- and hold up the BCS trophy in January.
Jeff Dooley is a contributor to ESPN Insider. Statistical analysis for "The Eliminator" was performed by Tom Haberstroh.