As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones. This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into the Super Bowl!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 22-15-18
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Rams (-4, 50 opening line) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
FPI Implied Line: Rams -4.5
In the biggest game of the year, FPI leans toward laying the points. It's a matchup between the model's No. 4-ranked team and No. 13-ranked team, so 3.5 points (where the line opened at Caesars before moving to 4) isn't quite going to cut it in terms of the difference.
This is partly a story of recency. The Bengals have played better offensively over their past six games, ranking eighth in EPA per play as opposed to 16th prior to that. FPI is not going to overweigh that recent play and instead will look at the entire body of work from Cincinnati -- which is solid but not overwhelming.
Joe Burrow's statistics are impressive, but they are also misleading. He leads the league in both yards per pass attempt and completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but both of those stats are conditional on attempting a pass. The issue for Burrow and the Bengals is that too often he doesn't, and it's not because he's scrambling, it's because he has a sack problem.
Both the Bengals' shoddy offensive line and Burrow are to blame for his very high 9% sack rate, and it's a huge concern. It would be a concern in any game, but particularly this one because the Rams, led by Aaron Donald, boast the league's best pass-rush win rate. Burrow is going to be under duress all game long.
Do you know the only team more efficient on plays when a pass is attempted than the Bengals? It's the Rams (at least, entering the NFC Championship Game). And they have the opposite offensive line situation; they entered Sunday with the league's best pass-block win rate, per ESPN pass-blocking metrics and NFL Next Gen Stats.
While Matthew Stafford certainly played worse in the second half of the season, the Rams still entered Sunday's contest as the third-best passing offense in the league and the seventh best overall, according to EPA per play over the course of the year.
Ultimately, the Bengals probably have a slight edge at quarterback in the Super Bowl, but the Rams will absolutely dominate the trenches. FPI leans toward Los Angeles.
FPI's pick: Rams -4