The Arizona Cardinals (11-6) visit the division rival Los Angeles Rams (12-5) to wrap up wild-card weekend (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, MegaCast on E+).
This week, ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry, betting analysts Anita Marks, Eric Moody and Joe Fortenbaugh, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN Stats & Info's Seth Walder, along with Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz, offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (4, 49.5)
Schatz: My pick in this game is driven by weighted DVOA, focusing on how well teams have played over the last nine to 10 weeks instead of the entire season. The Cardinals had a strong 37-20 win over the Rams in Los Angeles, but that was way back in Week 4. Things have changed since then. Personnel has changed. The Cardinals, most importantly, no longer have DeAndre Hopkins. The Rams have added Von Miller and exchanged Robert Woods for Odell Beckham Jr.
But also, the quality of these teams' performances has changed. The Rams ranked fifth in DVOA this season, with a weighted DVOA similar to their total season DVOA (there's a 0.4% difference). The Cardinals, however, ranked 10th in total DVOA and fall to 16th if you look at weighted DVOA to give less consideration to games from September and October. This has nothing to do with the Colt McCoy games at midseason. In fact, when you remove the McCoy games, Arizona's offensive DVOA actually drops slightly. The Cardinals' passing game has been very average since Kyler Murray returned in Week 13. Their running game hasn't been anything special all year. This game should look more like the second meeting of these teams, when the Rams beat the Cardinals 30-23 on Monday Night Football in Week 14.
Pick: Rams -4
Bearman: I have been on the Cardinals since before the season started (over 8 wins, +650 to win the NFC West), so I'm not going to stop now. Yes, they do not have DeAndre Hopkins and have been a shell of the team that started 7-0, but four points is too much in this matchup of fairly equal teams. They split the season series, with each team winning comfortably on the road. For whatever reason, Arizona has played much better on the road, including the 37-20 win in L.A. back in October. The Cards are a league-best 8-1 away from home, averaging 28.9 points per game (second-best), compared with under 22 points per game at home. The Cardinals are also 6-0 ATS and outright as an underdog this season, the most outright wins as an underdog in a single season without a loss in the Super Bowl era.
As for the Rams, they have the talent and ability to win the whole thing but continue to fall short of expectations. Their season is full of streaks, with win streaks of three, four and five games and a losing streak of three. The collapse last Sunday, which cost them the No. 2 seed and allowed a division rival to make the playoffs, is unexplainable. Up 17-0, the once-proud Rams defense made Jimmy G look like Joe Montana out there. Now they get Murray for the third time. Murray has passed for 651 combined yards and run for 100 in the two games vs. the Rams defense this season. The injuries continue to mount on that side of the ball for the Rams, as Jordan Fuller is out for the season and Leonard Floyd and Taylor Rapp may not play. The five-game win streak up to Week 18 is a little fraudulent, as they squeaked by a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team and three non-playoff teams in the Vikings, Jaguars and Seahawks. The only good win in there was vs. these same Cardinals, and if they repeat that performance, I'll be wrong.
Recent history says there will be an upset this weekend, as underdogs are 15-3 ATS in this wild-card round the past four seasons, with at least one outright upset in 12 of the past 14 seasons. Also, since 2014, underdogs are 7-0 ATS in divisional rematches in the postseason (5-2 outright). To me, as talented as the Rams are, they are not a team to be trusted and I will take the four points with Arizona and sprinkle a little on the money line.
Pick: Cardinals +4
Marks: Arizona's defense has been horrible of late, allowing 354 total yards per game over their past five matchups, and opponents are scoring on 53% of their possessions. Offensively, the Cards have struggled without Hopkins, who is not expected back Monday night. Zach Ertz is averaging 11 targets per game without Hopkins in the lineup, and the loss of Rams safety Fuller gives Ertz a nice matchup. Eighty percent of the Rams' touchdowns come through the air, and 75% of the TDs allowed by the Cards' defense are via the pass, so expect Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Beckham to put up good numbers.
Pick: Rams team total over 27.5, Stafford over 271.5 passing yards (-115), Kupp over 105.5 receiving yards (-115), Beckham to score TD (+165), Ertz over 5.5 receptions (+100), Murray over 38.5 rushing yards (-115)
Moody: Monday night will mark the Cardinals' first playoff game since 2015. It will be Kyler Murray's first playoff game as well. In two games against the Rams this season, he had 651 passing yards. Over the last five games of the season, Los Angeles has given up big passing performances, including Murray. Jimmy Garoppolo, Tyler Huntley, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Murray combined to average 273.4 passing yards per game. Christian Kirk has caught 75 of 100 targets this season for a career-high and team-high 939 receiving yards. In addition to him, Zach Ertz will also continue to be an integral part of the offense after the loss of DeAndre Hopkins. Ertz has caught 28 of 43 targets for 256 receiving yards over the last four games of the regular season. It has been a roller coaster ride for the Rams to end the regular season. Matthew Stafford has averaged 248 passing yards per game over the last three games with a 65.4% completion percentage and six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Despite his big performance against the Cardinals back in Week 14, when he threw for 287 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions, Arizona's defense closed the season allowing an average of 226.3 passing yards per game. During that period, the Cardinals faced Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson.
Picks: Murray over 254.5 passing yards (-115), Kirk over 53.5 receiving yards (-115), Ertz over 53.5 receiving yards (-115), Ertz over 5.5 receptions (+100), Stafford under 271.5 passing yards (-115), Stafford over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
Berry: Field goal props? Field goal props! Not sexy but you know what is? Making money. Matt Prater has hit this number in five of his past six games and has attempted at least three kicks in four of his past five. And this isn't a new trend as Arizona finished top-five in field goal attempts during the regular season. This should be a relatively close game, so I don't expect the Cards to blow off any field goal chances. And considering the Rams had the league's eighth best red zone defense during the regular season, I like the odds of Arizona stalling on a few drives and giving Prater the opportunity to make at least two field goals and hit the over.
Pick: Prater over 1.5 total made field goals
Walder: This is like a spread trade on Rams sacks. Whatever the right price is for Rams pass rushers against Kyler Murray (who takes sacks at an average rate), I feel confident that Aaron Donald and Von Miller should not have the same price, which is currently the case. Not only did Donald have more sacks this season than Miller, 12.5 to 9.5, but he had a higher pass rush win rate too, 27% to 21%.
Picks: Donald over 0.5 sacks (-110 at SugarHouse), Miller under 0.5 sacks (-118 at SugarHouse)
Fortenbaugh: Evaluate these teams for who they are, not who they were. The Rams have been suspect as of late, but Los Angeles did close the season winning five of their final six. As for Arizona, the Cardinals commenced the season 7-0 before devolving into a mid-tier squad that finished 4-6, with their scoring average dropping from 32.1 ppg during that initial seven-game run to just 22.4 ppg over the last ten outings. Additionally, the defense came unglued during that same time stretch, going from surrendering just 16.2 ppg to 25.2 ppg. McVay's playoff experience vs. Kingsbury's postseason inexperience is the cherry on top for me.
Looking at some player props, Los Angeles plays the third-most amount of zone coverage in the NFL, something that A.J. Green has eaten up this season. Case in point: In the first meeting between these two clubs, the veteran wideout hauled in five passes on six targets for 67 yards and a touchdown, and then upped the ante in the rematch by grabbing seven of ten targets for 102 yards. Considering the high game total and pass-first nature of these football teams, I believe Green's over 43.5 receiving yards prop is priced too low.
On the other sideline, if Tyler Higbee's prop price seems too low, there's a great reason as to why. Despite the fact that Higbee has eclipsed this total in each of his last four games, he's running into one of the league's elite defenses when it comes to defending the tight end position. During the regular season, Arizona surrendered the third-fewest receptions to opposing tight ends (59), fourth-fewest receiving yards (611) and fewest touchdowns (2). Take note that in the only game in which Higbee faced Arizona this season, he caught just four passes for 36 yards.
Pick: Rams -3.5, Green over 43.5 receiving yards, Higbee under 40.5 receiving yards