The NFL postseason resumes with three more games Sunday. The defending champion Bucs kick things off against the Eagles, followed by the 49ers visiting the Cowboys and then the Chiefs hosting the Steelers in the nightcap.
Fantasy guru Matthew Berry, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (17-29-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-33, 0-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (54-47-1, 2-4), Anita Marks (310-271, 17-10) and Erin Dolan (4-5, 0-0), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (143-137, 5-6), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (61-54, 1-0) and Mackenzie Kraemer (8-15, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (30-30-1, 0-0) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (60-46, 4-1) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through end of regular season).
Here are their best bets for Sunday's wild-card games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Eagles-Buccaneers | 49ers-Cowboys | Steelers-Chiefs
Sunday's best bets
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5, 46)
Schatz: Both teams' offenses are better than their defenses, according to Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. The Buccaneers ended the year as the No. 1 offense in the league by that metric. The Eagles finished 11th on offense but also were just 25th on defense. Both like to pick up the pace, which leads to more points. Tampa Bay and Philadelphia ranked second and fifth, respectively, in situation-neutral pace. We estimate a 68% chance that this game will go over the total.
Pick: Over 46
Fortenbaugh: What happens when Philadelphia's top-ranked rushing attack runs into the brick wall known as the Tampa Bay run defense, which ranked third in the NFL defending the run this season? My guess is that Philly's offense bogs down and is forced to turn to the right arm of Jalen Hurts, who completed just 61.3% of his passes this season (worse than Davis Mills, Ben Roethlisberger and Taylor Heinicke). That's not where Philadelphia wants to live and, as a result, I think its offense struggles in a big way.
Pick: Under 46, first half under 23
Dolan: In six regular-season games against teams that finished with double-digit wins, the Eagles went 0-6 and lost by an average of 13 points, so I am steering clear of the spread and isolating my pick to the Eagles' team total.
The Bucs' defense allows 21 points per game. The Eagles' bread and butter is running the ball, and the Bucs' defense is built to stop the run. Tampa Bay surrendered the fewest rushing yards in the NFC, giving up less than 93 yards per game on the ground. This will hurt the Eagles. As a Birds fan, this is a tough one for me, but I think the Eagles' team total goes under 19.5 points.
Pick: Eagles team total under 19.5
Walder: Both this season and last season the Buccaneers have ranked third worst in what we call "non-obvious fourth-down error rate." In other words, Bruce Arians went against the recommendation of our win probability model more often than most other coaches when making fourth-down decisions. That's not good for the Bucs, but it does give us confidence that Ryan Succop's field goal expectation should be just a little higher than normal given the tendency toward conservative choices. FPI's baseline projection for Bucs field goals in this game -- not knowing about their game management tendencies -- is 1.7, too.
Pick: Succop over 1.5 total made field goals (-120)
Moody: It has been a superb season for Tom Brady, who led the league with 5,316 passing yards. In addition, the veteran quarterback finished the season strong with an average of 309 passing yards from Weeks 14 to 18. Brady (35) tied Kyler Murray for the most completions of 20 yards or more. The Eagles' secondary ranked 11th in the league for opponents yards per game (222). Philadelphia, however, is giving up the highest opponent completion percentage in the league (69.4%). Brady and the Buccaneers' offensive line have an advantage over the Eagles' defensive front, which is positive for Brady. Tampa Bay's offensive line allowed the fewest sacks (23) and Brady's experience and mental processing are unparalleled at this point in his career. Even if you blitz him, Brady will make you pay since his average snap-to-throw time this season was 2.5 seconds, ranking second among qualifying quarterbacks.
During the past month, the Buccaneers have lost Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and now Cyril Grayson to injury or release. Rob Gronkowski will be a crucial part of Tampa Bay's passing game. For his career, he has collected 89 receptions for 1,273 yards and 14 touchdowns with Brady in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Eagles allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Picks: Brady over 281.5 passing yards (+100), Brady over 2.5 TD passes (+155), Gronkowski over 56.5 receiving yards (-115), Gronkowski to score a TD (+130)
Marks: The Eagles lost to the Bucs 28-22 in Week 6 but have developed into a much better team since then. They are rested and healthy, and getting Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders back on offense will present a different challenge to this Bucs defense. Weather conditions are expected to be bad with a lot of rain and wind, which will help the Eagles and their dominant rushing attack. Fournette will lead the charge in the Bucs' backfield, considering Ronald Jones II is expected to be inactive, and Tampa will also be without Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin and Cyril Grayson. I expect Gronk to have a significant role, especially in a favorable matchup.
Pick: Eagles +8.5, Eagles +14.5 in 6-point teaser with over 40, Fournette anytime TD (-140), Gronkowski over 56.5 receiving yards (-115)
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 51)
Kezirian: San Francisco is a popular underdog pick, but I think Dallas is the right side. Yes, the Cowboys bolstered their record with weak NFC East opposition, but they also played well against strong competition when at full strength. It bears repeating. Dallas struggled when Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb battled injuries, but this offense is crisp and sharp at full strength. Meanwhile, I just do not trust San Francisco, as I believe Jimmy Garoppolo is inconsistent.
Pick: Dallas -3
Schatz: The 49ers are going to give the ball to their best playmakers in the playoffs, and Deebo Samuel has been fantastic as a runner this season. Samuel set the all-time record for rushing value by a wide receiver in Football Outsiders' DYAR metrics, with 6.2 yards per carry. Samuel has topped 30 rushing yards in six of his past eight games. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense ranks second in DVOA against the pass but 16th against the run.
Pick: Samuel over 28.5 rushing yards (-120)
Moody: Samuel has been a headache for opposing defenses this season, both as a receiver and as a rusher. He is going to be the focal point of the 49ers' offense against the Cowboys. Samuel has averaged 11 opportunities (rushing attempts and targets) and 110.3 total yards per game this season with an even more impressive 48 yards after the catch per game. Short passes are one way to negate an aggressive pass rush. Samuel will be on the end of many of them.
Picks: Samuel over 28.5 rushing yards (-120), Samuel over 58.5 receiving yards (-150), Samuel to score a TD (-135)
Marks: Believe it or not, the 49ers are the most complete team in the postseason, especially with the return of Emmanuel Moseley. They rank first in red zone conversion rate, and Garoppolo is the best QB against Cover 3 (76% completion percentage) -- and the Cowboys play Cover 3 almost 50% of the time. Elijah Mitchell is averaging 4.7 YPC, and with his success comes the opportunity to use play-action, and the Cowboys' defense ranks 24th against play-action. Samuel should have a monster day, considering Trevon Diggs has given up over 950 receiving yards to opposing WRs this season, the most a cornerback has allowed in 16 years.
Picks: 49ers alt line +3.5 (-110), 49ers +9 in 6-point teaser with Chiefs -6.5, Samuel to score a TD (-135), Garoppolo over 252.5 passing yards (-115), Samuel over 4.5 receptions (+105), Mitchell over 90.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5, 46)
Fortenbaugh: The total closed at 44.5 when these two met back in Week 16 and went over only thanks to a garbage time touchdown scored by Pittsburgh that put the final score at 36-10 in favor of Kansas City. So why has the total been adjusted 1.5 points north for the rematch? I think there's value in the under considering the fact that Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the league in yards per play and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is averaging a paltry 6.2 yards per passing attempt this season, the second-lowest average of his 18-year career. T.J. Watt played just 38 snaps the first time these two got together, so an increased workload should help to limit Kansas City's offensive output.
Pick: Under 46, first half under 23.5
Schatz: Roethlisberger had only one passing touchdown against the Chiefs a few weeks ago, and the fantasy projections at Football Outsiders are projecting him for only 1.5 touchdowns in this game. The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in only eight of 17 games this season. But we know that the Chiefs take their foot off the gas pedal with a fourth-quarter lead, which increases the chance of a late Steelers score that could hit this over for Roethlisberger. For the full season, the Chiefs' pass defense DVOA (23rd) is actually ranked lower than their run defense DVOA (20th). And most importantly, look at those sweet, sweet odds! I would never take this bet with even odds, because it looks like an even bet. But with +155 odds? That's positive expected value!
Pick: Roethlisberger over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+155)
Dolan: The Chiefs have been better in the first half, posting a 9-8 first-half ATS record, while Pittsburgh has a 6-11 first-half ATS record.
The Chiefs beat the Steelers 36-10 three weeks ago. In that game, Kansas City was up by 23 points at the half. After that loss, Pittsburgh became the first team in NFL history to trail by at least 23 points at halftime in three straight road games. The Steelers just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Chiefs. If the Steelers do come alive, it is typically in the second half of games.
The Steelers led the league with 55 sacks this season, but if the Steelers' defense does not get to Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs should cover the points in the first half.
Pick: Chiefs first half -7
Walder: Based on expected completion probability of his targets, Diontae Johnson is averaging 7.3 expected receptions per game. That alone would have me leaning toward the over on this prop, but what seals the deal is the expected game script here; the Steelers figure to be down and needing to pass downfield in order to have a prayer against the Chiefs.
Pick: Johnson over 6.5 receptions (-110)
Berry: This is a high number, but I still like the over here. Johnson has seen at least 10 targets in 12 of his 16 games this season, including 25 total targets over the last two weeks. And that volume goes up even further when Pittsburgh is playing from behind. In games where the Steelers have lost this season, Johnson is averaging 11.8 targets and 7.5 receptions, having caught at least seven passes in four of those six contests. With Pittsburgh being a 12.5 point underdog to the Chiefs, Johnson should have plenty of opportunities to hit the over on Sunday.
Pick: Johnson over 6.5 receptions (-110)
Marks: The last time these two teams met, 16 Chiefs players were in COVID-19 protocols heading into their matchup. Travis Kelce was inactive, Tyreek Hill was a shell of himself and Clyde Edwards-Helaire left the game in the second quarter due to a shoulder injury. Mahomes still passed for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. I see much of the same this week against a Steelers team that has been on an emotional roller coaster the past three weeks. Mahomes and K.C.'s offense will score at will, and Big Ben and Johnson will be playing catch-up in the second half.
Pick: Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs (+155), Johnson over 6.5 receptions (-110)