The NFL postseason kicks off Saturday with Raiders-Bengals and Patriots-Bills. The Bengals rolled in their regular-season matchup with the Raiders, and the Patriots and Bills split their season series.
Fantasy guru Matthew Berry, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (17-29-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (25-33, 0-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (54-47-1, 2-4), Anita Marks (310-271, 17-10) and Erin Dolan (4-5, 0-0), fantasy and sports betting analyst Eric Moody (143-137, 5-6), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (61-54, 1-0) and Mackenzie Kraemer (8-15, 0-0), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (30-30-1, 0-0) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (60-46, 4-1) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through end of regular season).
Here are their best bets for Saturday's wild-card games games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Raiders-Bengals | Patriots-Bills
Saturday's best bets
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 49)
Berry: Anyone who has followed me knows I'm not always the biggest Josh Jacobs fan. But this week I am because the Raiders are. Jacobs has seen 69 carries over his past three games, including 25-plus in two of those contests. He has also handled 82% of the Raiders' RB carries over that stretch, including 26-of-28 in last week's must-win game against the Chargers. Cincinnati does have a much better run defense than Los Angeles, but the Bengals have still faced at least 22 rush attempts in five of their past six games. The Raiders need to slow this game down and keep Joe Burrow and company on the sideline as much as possible. Assuming the Raiders can keep this game relatively close, I expect them to once again lean heavily on Jacobs and the running game on the road.
Pick: Jacobs over 16.5 rush attempts (-110)
Dolan: The Bengals can put up big points, but can the Raiders keep up? While the Raiders average 22 points per game on the season, Las Vegas has posted more than 21 points in only two of its past six games. The Raiders did hit over 21.5 points in the two straight wins over the Colts and Chargers, but they lost 32-13 to Cincy on Nov. 21 at home.
The Raiders playing in cold weather will be a shock to the system. There is a possibility of snow with a kickoff temperature expected to be under 30 degrees. Derek Carr has made five starts when the temperature is under 38 at kickoff since 2014 and is 0-5 in those games. Cincinnati's defense currently ranks 16th in defensive efficiency and 17th in points allowed per game (22.12), but I don't see the Raiders being able to put up more than 21.5 points in Cincinnati due to the weather.
Pick: Raiders team total under 21.5 points
Fortenbaugh: I like the Bengals to hang a sizable number in this one. Cincinnati concluded the regular season in the top-seven in both scoring and yards per play and should find consistent success against a Raiders defense that ranked 20th in the NFL in points allowed on the road. Further, don't discount the fact that the Bengals rested several key starters in Week 18's meaningless showdown at Cleveland. As for the Raiders, this is a different offense with a healthy Darren Waller manning the tight end position, as we saw in Sunday night's overtime win over the Chargers. With Waller on the field this season, the Raiders are averaging a respectable 23.7 points per game. With Waller out of commission, the Silver & Black produced just 18.8 points per game this season. Take note that Cincinnati's defense ranks 17th in scoring and 19th in opponent yards per play, so there are some vulnerabilities that can be exploited.
Pick: Over 49, Bengals +0.5 in 6-point teaser with Bucs -2.5
Walder: Zay Jones' playing time increased dramatically after the Raiders cut Henry Ruggs; Jones never played more than 30% of offensive snaps before the bye and never played less than 69% after. His expected receiving yards per game -- based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats -- since the bye was 44.0. But his usage really picked up in the home stretch of the season. In the final five weeks, that expected receiving yards per game jumped all the way to 60.3. It's a long enough stretch that I think it's worth considering as the new normal for him. If that's true, the over is a great value.
Pick: Jones over 41.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: During Weeks 16 and 17, Joe Burrow passed for 971 yards and eight touchdowns, helping Cincinnati to the AFC North title before sitting out Week 18. Even if you exclude those two games, he averaged 260 passing yards per game from Weeks 1 to 15. Burrow and receiver Ja'Marr Chase are well known to have a great working relationship. In Weeks 13-17, Chase averaged 8.4 targets and 104.6 receiving yards per game. This season, he also scored several long touchdowns.
Jones ended the regular season on a positive note. From Weeks 12 to 18, he averaged eight targets, 52.7 receiving yards and 95 receiving air yards per game. The number of yards the ball traveled in the air on a passing play, from the line of scrimmage to the contact point, is known as the air yards. Jones has clearly been a target for Derek Carr in the passing game over the past seven games. The trend will continue against the Bengals in the wild-card round.
Picks: Burrow over 262.5 passing yards (-115), Chase over 71.5 receiving yards (-115), Chase anytime TD, Jones over 41.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Bengals are coming into this matchup rested at home and comfortable in frigid conditions. The Raiders head into wild-card weekend after an emotional OT game against the Chargers in which their defense was on the field for close to 40 minutes and had to defend 88 plays. Las Vegas' red zone defense is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to score touchdowns over 80% of the time, and their offense converts TDs at only a 37% rate. They are also the most penalized team in the NFL; the Bengals are the least. Burrow has a favorable matchup, considering the Raiders play a ton of Cover-3, something Burrow thrives against. Joe Mixon should be the focal point of the offense because the Raiders struggle against opposing ball carriers and have allowed 23 touchdowns to running backs this season.
Pick: Bengals -5.5, Bengals +0.5 in 6-point teaser with 49ers +9, Bengals first quarter -0.5, Joe Mixon anytime TD (+440), Mixon over 99.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110), Bengals ML parlay with Rams (+115)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4, 44)
Schatz: Based on our advanced metrics at Football Outsiders, this is the headline matchup of the weekend. Buffalo finished the year second overall in DVOA. The Patriots finished the year fourth. The teams are roughly similar when we split up the units as well. The Patriots are ninth in offensive DVOA, the Bills 10th. Although the Patriots run a lot more than the Bills, the two teams are similar in efficiency running the ball (Patriots seventh, Bills ninth). Defense is similar as well, with the Bills first and the Patriots fourth. And on special teams, the two teams finished 18th and 19th.
The Patriots, of course, slipped past the Bills in Week 13 with a run-heavy game plan built for a cold, windy night. The Bills got revenge three weeks later, but there's reason to believe Josh Allen's fantastic offensive performance from that second game might not be likely to repeat in this wild-card game. For the season, DVOA rates the Patriots as the No. 1 defense in the league on third and fourth down. But Allen converted 6 of 12 third downs and 3 of 4 fourth downs against the Patriots in Week 16. He converted four of five pass attempts on third down with 10 or more yards to go! It's unlikely to happen again. Fewer third-down conversions means fewer extended drives, which means fewer points for the Bills.
The forecast for Saturday night in Buffalo is calling for temperatures in the teens with winds between 10 and 15 mph. It's not going to be another game like that Week 13 contest in which the Patriots threw only three passes, but the weather will be a factor. That should also keep this game closer. The Bills are rightly favored, but the Patriots have the best chance to win -- or cover -- of the three AFC road teams.
Pick: Patriots +4
Walder: Production-wise, Cole Beasley has had a bit of an up-and-down year, but he still commands targets. In fact, his 112 targets this year outpaced the 107 he received in his breakout 2020 campaign. He averaged 47.1 expected receiving yards per game this year, which is far enough off this line that I'm willing to hit the over.
Pick: Beasley over 33.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Moody: Devin Singletary rushed for only 75 yards in two regular-season games against a Patriots defense that ranks sixth in run stop win rate. To attack New England's defense through the air, the Bills will rely on franchise quarterback Josh Allen. In the regular season, Buffalo has run the football only 40.3% of the time.
The Patriots can't rely completely on Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and their running game. The Bills will force rookie quarterback Mac Jones to beat them, which benefits his favorite target, Jakobi Meyers, who has averaged 7.4 targets and 51 receiving yards per game this season. Even though the matchup against the Bills' secondary isn't ideal, the Patriots will find ways to feed him the ball whether it is from the slot or on the outside. Meyers should amass enough yards to exceed the prop.
Picks: Singletary under 59.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel), Meyers over 44.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Marks: Weather conditions are expected to be below freezing at kick off. Josh Allen has played in 4 games at below freezing in his NFL career and has never passed for more than 200 yards, or above 56% completion in one of those 4 games, along with 4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The Pats defense ranks 3rd in pass coverage, 7th in pressure rate, and has only allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season. The team with the better rushing attack, especially in the 4th quarter will have the advantage, hence why I like the Pats in this spot. Two games the Pats faced the Bills this season, they were able to rush for 370 total yards.
Pick: Patriots +4, Patriots +10 in 2-team, 6-point teaser with under 50, Harris over 14.5 rushing attempts, Harris anytime TD (+120), Allen under 239.5, Allen under 45.5 rush yards, Patriots to have most punts (-105)
Walder: Matt Judon had 12.5 sacks this season, but this is too good of a price on the under to pass up. The big reason: Josh Allen doesn't take sacks. His 3.6% sack rate was second only to Tom Brady this season. Plus, this is a game the Bills are expected to be winning, so that should create fewer pass rush opportunities for Judon, who ranked a good-not-great 19th in pass rush win rate at edge this year.
Pick: Judon under 0.5 sacks (-104 at SugarHouse)