Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays. This week's best bets are listed below in no particular order.
Season results: 105-92 (+8.9 units)
Probability rates are based on 2021 results. For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our staff roundtable on the topic.
Cooper Kupp under 116.5 receiving yards (-115)
The highest receiving yardage prop I charted through Week 17 was 113.5. Kupp opened at 125.5 this week. The line has since fallen, but I'm still open to fading the extremes. Kupp's line has been above 96 four times this season (including each of the last two weeks) and he has cleared it only once. Kupp is chasing a record (he needs 136 yards to break Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage mark) and has a good matchup against a COVID-ravaged 49ers' secondary, but we can't expect the Rams to simply force feed Kupp without abandon, as there are significant playoff implications for both teams. The 49ers have allowed four receivers to reach 117 yards this season, though one was Kupp (122 yards in Week 10). Betting against Kupp is a dangerous game, but his output this season suggest the under is the smarter play.
Projection: 105 receiving yards
Keenan Allen under 6.5 receptions (+105)
Allen has reached seven catches 47% of the time this season, though most of that damage was done prior to December. He has fallen short of seven receptions in four straight games and has exactly four in his last two games. This week, Allen will be facing off against a Raiders defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season. Granted, Allen was one of them (Week 4), but only six receivers have caught more than six passes against Las Vegas this season.
Projection: 6.1 receptions
Trevor Lawrence under 0.5 passing TDs (+185), under 1.5 passing TDs (-230)
I included 0.5 and 1.5 here since I've seen both available. Lawrence hasn't thrown more than one touchdown pass in a game since Week 1, totaling seven during his last 15 games (seriously). That's why the 1.5 line is attractive despite ugly vig. Lawrence has also failed to throw a single touchdown pass in exactly half of his 16 starts, so it's surprising that we're getting such generous vig on that one, especially in a tough matchup against a motivated Colts team (they lock up a playoff spot with a win). The Colts allowed a ton of pass TDs earlier this season but have held five of their last seven opponents below two passing TDs. Two of them had zero, including Lawrence in Week 10.
Projection: 0.6 passing TDs
Jalen Guyton under 19.5 receiving yards (-135)
Guyton has fallen short of 20 yards in 67% of his games this season. A lack of volume has been the culprit, as he has cleared three targets only three times, two of which came prior to Week 7. Guyton is generally on the field for roughly half of Los Angeles' pass plays and he has seen his workload sink recently (two targets in his last two games) as the team has incorporated impressive rookie Josh Palmer into the offense more often. Guyton has primarily been used in the short area, sporting an 8.9 average depth of target. Of his 25 catches this season, only five have gone for 20-plus yards, so he'd likely need multiple catches to hit this mark; he has reached two catches in only eight games this season.
Projection: 18.4 receiving yards
Deebo Samuel over 52.5 receiving yards (EV)
Samuel has gone over 52 yards in 73% of his games this season, and that high hit rate is despite a mid-season lull in which he was primarily used as a rusher and essentially phased out of the passing game. In fact, if we ignore the three games spanning Weeks 11-14 in which he totaled 22 carries and seven targets, Samuel has hit 53 yards in 11 of 12 games (the exception was a 52-yard effort in Week 3). Though he's still involved in the run game, Samuel's targets have rebounded in recent weeks (17 over his last two games). He'll also benefit from the probable return of Jimmy Garoppolo in a game the 49ers need to win in order to make the playoffs. The Rams have faced the fifth-most WR targets this season and have allowed the eighth-most yards and ninth-highest catch rate to the position. Twenty-two wideouts have reached 53 yards against them this season.
Projection: 74 receiving yards
Rex Burkhead under 41.5 rushing yards (-115)
Burkhead has fallen short of 42 rushing yards in 87% of his games this season, including 13 straight to open the season. Of course, that's a bit misleading, as Burkhead didn't reach five carries in a game until Week 11. Still, despite averaging 13.0 carries per game from Weeks 11-15, he was held below 42 yards in five straight games. His volume has been up with David Johnson out the last two weeks and he has posted rushing lines of 22-149-2 and 16-47-0. The former was an elite matchup against a poor Chargers run defense that was extremely shorthanded (COVID), and the latter saw Burkhead average an ugly 2.9 yards per carry. The low-end efficiency is the norm for Burkhead this season, as his 3.66 YPC ranks in the 15th percentile at the position. Houston's poor run blocking has been a major issue, as it has supplied Burkhead with 1.55 yards before contact (seventh percentile). In addition to Johnson returning this week, Burkhead will have his hands full with a Titans run defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and fifth-lowest YPC (3.8) to running backs this season. Burkhead ran for 40 yards on 18 carries against the Titans in Week 11 (a game Houston surprisingly won). The Titans will be heavily motivated to win this game, as a victory would lock up the top seed in the AFC and a bye during the wild-card round.
Projection: 40 rushing yards
Van Jefferson over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jefferson has gone over this line 69% of the time this season. In fact, the second-year receiver hasn't really been given much respect on the prop market, as he has gone over his receiving yardage line in eight of 12 tracked weeks. Jefferson's snaps were down a bit last week, but he still racked up five targets and 67 air yards. He has played 80% of the offensive snaps (84% of pass plays) and is handling 15% of the Rams' targets and 24% of the air yards this season. The opposing 49ers have allowed 8.4 yards per target (ninth-highest) and a 68% catch rate (fourth-highest) to wide receivers this season and are now dealing with major COVID issues in the secondary. Jefferson is one of 27 receivers to reach 40 yards against the 49ers this season, having totaled 54 yards when these teams met in Week 10.
Projection: 45 receiving yards