Joe Fortenbaugh, David M. Hale and Tyler Fulghum provide their best bets for the highly anticipated College Football Playoff semifinal matchups.
The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats, and then the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines face the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (all times Eastern)
Friday, Dec. 31
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5, 57.5)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Hale: In the annals of great underdog stories, this game affords the world one of the most remarkable: a chance for those scrappy upstarts from Tuscaloosa to prove themselves against mighty Cincinnati. OK, that's the rhetoric Alabama wanted to sell this week, that the Tide have been the overlooked team all season, and Cincinnati is actually the clear favorite. The rest of the world disagrees. Indeed, it's only to Alabama's benefit to have its own players shunning the rat poison and embracing the chip on their shoulder (even if that chip is more like a speck of dust). A slighted Alabama is the best Alabama, as it showed in the SEC championship game. And yet, it seems foolish to assume that's the real version of the Tide just because it's the one we saw most recently. Alabama lost to Texas A&M. Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Auburn all took the Tide to the brink. That was hardly a dominant Alabama team, and the line here feels like Vegas has ignored those data points completely. A win for Cincinnati would be a shocker -- but not exactly impossible. Look back through Alabama's semifinal opponents over the years -- 2020 Notre Dame, 2017 Clemson, 2016 Washington, 2015 Michigan State -- and Cincinnati is probably better than all of them. Of course, Alabama also won those games by an average of 22 points. Still, the Bearcats' defense is legit, the offense is chock full of veteran talent, and this isn't the 2020 version of Alabama, even if it looked the part against Georgia. The history of non-Power 5 teams in big games is filled with far more competitive games than blowouts, and we'll lean toward this being another closer-than-you'd-think moment for the little guys.
Pick: Cincinnati +13.5
Fortenbaugh: Alabama wide receiver John Metchie is out for the season with a knee injury suffered in the SEC championship game, which will sting a bit against a legit Cincinnati secondary that features some names you'll hear playing on Sundays down the line. Speaking of the Bearcats, this is their Super Bowl. I'd imagine a game plan similar to what we saw in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl between Oklahoma and Boise State when the Broncos emptied the playbook and left it all on the field. Keep in mind with a spread this big, the back door is wide open late if Alabama has a comfortable lead and pulls its starters. That's what happened last year against Notre Dame when Irish quarterback Ian Book scored a touchdown with less than a minute remaining to cover the 18.5-point spread.
Pick: Cincinnati at +14 or better; under 58 points
Kezirian: Maybe I will eat some crow but I do not understand this line. Alabama has trucked CFP opponents as double-digit favorites so I doubt the Tide come out flat or look past a Group of 5 opponent. As for the talent on the field, the Tide are far superior. I do not expect much from Cincy's offense, as Nick Saban has several weeks to prepare for a unit that was not all that potent. I also believe offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien will have the right solution to a strong UC defense. Remember, he just designed a game plan that carved up Georgia's defense and he has been able to coach his Heisman quarterback Bryce Young the past few weeks. The Bearcats have an elite secondary but I have faith in Bama, given what I saw from them against the Bulldogs.
Pick: Alabama -13.5
Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5, 45.5)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami
Fortenbaugh: Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara is not Alabama quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young. That's important to note because Alabama smoked Georgia by throwing the ball early and often as well as running an up-tempo offense. That's the exact opposite of how Michigan likes to play football, as the Wolverines want to pound the rock between the tackles while grinding the clock. Remember, Georgia enters the playoff having stewed for 27 straight days over that Alabama humiliation.
Pick: Georgia -7.5
Hale: Who is the real Georgia? Is it the team that dominated all comers (except, sort of, Clemson) in the regular season? Or is it the team that was steamrollered by Alabama in the SEC championship game? Is Stetson Bennett a mobile QB who gives Georgia its best shot against Michigan's ferocious pass rush or the former walk-on who lacks the downfield passing ability to win on a big stage? Is Georgia's D, which allowed just eight touchdowns in the regular season, primed for a big day against a Wolverines team that appears to play more to the Dawgs' strengths, or is it the unit that was picked apart by Young? Honestly, there are good cases to be made on all sides here, which is what makes the line so confounding. Buy one side of the argument, and Georgia should cover with ease. Buy the other, and 7.5 is a huge number. In the end, we'll split the difference -- with Georgia's defense likely to return to form against Michigan's power run game, but Bennett likely to run into some trouble against David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson, too. This one might end up looking a lot like that opener against Clemson, where points are at a premium, and two elite defenses show off on a big stage.
Pick: Under 45.5
Fulghum: The Wolverines enter this game as a 7.5-point underdog, and that is just a bit too much for a team that was an FBS-best 11-2 ATS this season. When I forecast how these teams interact on the field, it looks like a battle of strength on strength. Like the Spider-Man meme. I just think Michigan is the better Spider-Man. The Wolverines' offense is more potent due to a dominant OL and the two-headed monster of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum in the backfield. I'd rather have McNamara than Bennett, though neither is all that exciting. The Georgia defense is legit, no doubt, but so too is Michigan's led by Hutchinson and Ojabo. Plus, the Wolverines crafted their CFP résumé against much better competition in the Big Ten East than the Bulldogs did against an awful SEC East schedule. I'll take the Wolverines and the points, and even sprinkle a little on the outright win.
Pick: Michigan +7.5