Intro by Doug Kezirian
While a potential Super Bowl matchup of Tom Brady against Bill Belichick has generated buzz this week, this Sunday's game between Tampa Bay and Buffalo also could be a Super Bowl preview. The Bucs are currently 3- or 3.5-point home favorites, depending on the sportsbook.
"You're going to see this number kick around three and 3.5 all week," SuperBook executive director John Murray told ESPN. "There's already a ton of money on this game, period. Lot of money on both sides. Lot of money on the game total both ways ... definitely going to be the biggest handle game of the day."
The Bills may now be relegated to the wild card race after losing at home to the Patriots on Monday in a bizarre and windy game. However, since becoming a legitimate contender last season, the Bills are 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Another Buffalo loss could open the door for the surging Chiefs to wind up the AFC's top seed. Kansas City has won five straight games.
"I think Kansas City the last four or five weeks is one of the most interesting stories in the NFL," Murray said. "All of a sudden the Chiefs are winning with their defense,"
Kansas City has held each opponent to 17 points or less during this current five-game win streak, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown more than one TD pass in just one of those games.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (13-23-2, 0-2 last week), Tyler Fulghum (15-23, 6-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (38-35-1, 2-3) and Anita Marks (202-185, 16-10), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (100-93, 8-6), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (51-44, 2-2) and Mackenzie Kraemer (5-13, 1-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (26-22-1, 2-2) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (41-35, 3-3) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 13.)
Here are their best bets for Sunday's Week 14 games.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Ravens-Browns | Jaguars-Titans | Raiders-Chiefs | Saints-Jets | Cowboys-Washington | Falcons-Panthers | Seahawks-Texans | Lions-Broncos | Giants-Chargers | 49ers-Bengals | Bills-Buccaneers | Bears-Packers
Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET game
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 43)
Fortenbaugh: I'm not going to overthink this one. The Bears have been abysmal on offense this season, ranking 29th in yards per play and 30th in scoring. So is it any surprise to learn that this outfit hasn't topped 27 points in any of its 12 contests this season? As for Green Bay, the Packers are coming off a bye and are a lucrative 21-7 ATS in their past 28 showdowns with the Bears, not to mention 13-3 ATS over their past 16 games overall. There's a reason Aaron Rodgers had no problem telling the fans at Soldier Field, "I own you," back in Week 6. It's because that sentiment is true.
Pick: Packers -12.5
Bearman: Back in 2014, Rodgers told everyone to R-E-L-A-X after a 1-2 start and the Packers went all the way to the NFC title game. This year, he said "I own you" after scoring in Chicago and, we should totally believe him ... because he does own the Bears. The Packers are 20-7 ATS vs. the Bears with Rodgers under center, including 5-0 dating back to 2019, with the past three decided by double digits. By the way, it's not just the Bears. The Packers are a league-best 10-2 ATS this season and 10-1 since the opening-week disaster vs. the Saints. The Packers' defense has surprisingly been just as good as its offense and now faces a Bears offense that is dead last in passing, 30th in total yards and third-to-last in points scored. As Joe said, don't overthink this one. It might be the largest spread in the past 20 years of this rivalry, but one team and one player does, in fact, own the other team.
Pick: Packers -12.5
Fulghum: Rodgers owns the Bears. Justin Fields is returning to action for the first time in weeks on the road against a Green Bay defense that has been amazing even without two of its best players. Anything under 14 is good by me, unless you think the Packers get bored.
Pick: Packers -12.5
Schatz: The Bears' defense was playing well earlier in the season, but it's down to 18th in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. Khalil Mack, Danny Trevathan and Duke Shelley are all on IR. This situation sets up pretty well for the Packers (third in offensive DVOA) to score plenty of points. In particular, the Bears are the worst pass defense in the league against deep throws (16 or more yards in the air). But the Packers' defense hasn't been great either, coming out as just average in DVOA this season. The Bears' offense isn't very good, but it's realistic that the Bears will score enough points on Green Bay to push this game over the total. We estimate a nice 69% chance that this game will go over.
Pick: Over 43
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-10, 42)
Schatz: This line has moved around, starting at 8.5 and dropping to 7.5, then turning around and going up to 10. Denver is the clear favorite in this game, but 10 points seems like a bit much. The Broncos are 18th in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and the Lions are 29th, not 32nd as you would expect given their 1-10-1 record. Detroit is much better than Denver on special teams, the kind of thing that could keep this a close field-position battle rather than a Denver blowout. Both teams have trouble in the red zone, which could also keep things close. For all their losses, the Lions have finished within 10 points of their opponent in nine out of 12 games this season.
Pick: Lions +10
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10, 43)
Marks: Daniel Jones is not expected to play because of a neck injury, Mike Glennon needs to pass concussion protocol, and there is a good chance Jake Fromm will have to start for the Giants. It would be Fromm's first career start. The Giants have not had home cooking all week; they flew straight to Arizona and spent the week out west to prepare for the Chargers game. I like both running backs to find success in this matchup, Ekeler against a Giants defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and Barkley to be utilized in the passing game as well.
Pick: Chargers -4 in 6-point teaser with Broncos -4, Ekeler over 105.5 combined rushing and receiving yards (-110), Golladay under 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 48.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Fortenbaugh: In one of the biggest "red flag" line moves of the week, Cincinnati opened as a 2.5-point favorite before a deluge of San Francisco money moved the number all the way to 49ers -1.5. Why? For starters, Kyle Shanahan's crew is 4-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season with a +31 point differential. Standout linebacker Fred Warner is expected back in the lineup, and dual-threat playmaker Deebo Samuel could see the field on Sunday as well. But the bottom line here is that, while pleasantly surprising in 2021, the Bengals aren't nearly as solid as their record indicates, as Cincinnati ranks 20th in opponent yards per play, 20th in turnover differential and 29th in sacks allowed. Don't be scared to wager on Cincinnati missing the playoffs at a price of -110.
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Schatz: The Bengals have the better win-loss record this season, but there's a big gap between these teams in advanced analytics. The 49ers are seventh overall in DVOA despite being just 6-6. They rank in the top 10 for both offense and defense. The Bengals, on the other hand, are just 19th in DVOA. ESPN FPI has a similar gap; San Francisco is ninth, and Cincinnati 20th. Part of the gap between win-loss record and analytics is that San Francisco has played one of the league's hardest schedules and Cincinnati has played the easiest based on average DVOA of opponent. The Bengals have two particular weaknesses that are very bad to have against the San Francisco offense: They rank 24th in DVOA against tight ends, and they rank 29th against passes in the middle of the field.
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Marks: Joe Burrow's pinkie injury is significant because of the impact it has on his throwing the ball. Burrow has three touchdown passes and five interceptions over his past four games. Tee Higgins is dealing with an ankle injury, and Ja'Marr Chase has been struggling to find explosive plays in the passing game recently. The Bengals expect to be without Logan Wilson, so George Kittle could be in line for another huge night.
Pick: 49ers -1.5, Kittle anytime TD (+119), Burrow under 34.5 passing attempts (-105)
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 53.5)
Fulghum: It's fantasy gold, Jerry! This game features two of the top four teams in the NFL in pass rate over expectation and two of the top eight run defenses in the NFL in terms of yards per rush. Both these teams prefer to put the ball in the hands of their MVP-caliber QBs, and the matchup dictates that is the most efficient way for both offenses to move the ball and score in this game. With no gale-force winds expected in Tampa Bay, sit back and watch both QBs let it rip.
Picks: Over 53.5, Josh Allen over 40.5 pass attempts (-120), Tom Brady over 40.5 pass attempts (-125)
Marks: The Bills' pass defense presents a much different challenge than the Falcons' did. Buffalo gets after the quarterback with a 30% pressure rate, and opposing QBs are averaging less than a 60% completion percentage. Brady will be in for a more challenging afternoon. Fournette continues to dominate the Bucs' backfield, and as we saw last week, the Bills could struggle against the run. The Bills will be without Tre'Davious White, so Dane Jackson is the lucky DB to face Mike Evans on Sunday. Good luck with that!
Picks: Brady under 303.5 passing yards (-140), Fournette over 55.5 rushing yards (-110), Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-120), Mike Evans scores TD (+117)
Moody: Allen has averaged 245 passing yards per game over his past four. The Buccaneers' defense has been performing much better lately, especially in the secondary. Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke and Trevor Siemian averaged just 237 passing yards per game over the past five games against them.
Evans is averaging 7.8 targets and 66.2 receiving yards over his past four games, and a high portion of his snaps will likely be against Jackson, who will replace White (torn ACL).
Rob Gronkowski has averaged 8.7 targets and 84 receiving yards per game since returning in Week 11. His rapport with Brady is well known, and Bills linebackers will have difficulty slowing him down in the middle of the field.
Picks: Allen under 290.5 passing yards (-115), Evans over 58.5 receiving yards (-135), Gronkowski over 46.5 receiving yards (-120)
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 43)
Walder: I know Baltimore's passing offense hasn't looked great recently, but these receiving lines have sunk too far. Normally when I compare the expected receiving yards per game -- based on air yards, expected completion percentage and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats -- to a receiver's line, they're very close. Marquise Brown's and Mark Andrews' are not. Based on the targets they've received, the Ravens wide receiver and tight end have earned 74.3 and 71.3 expected receiving yards per game this season. I like each of their chances of going over.
Picks: Brown over 55.5 receiving yards (-115), Andrews over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Lamar Jackson struggled mightily against the Browns in Week 12, accounting for 165 passing yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Jackson also rushed for 68 yards on 17 carries. Jackson, Tim Boyle, Mac Jones, Joe Burrow and Ben Roethlisberger averaged 197.6 passing yards against the Browns' defense over the past five games. The Ravens' offensive line ranks fourth in run-block win rate. It would be wise for Baltimore to use that to its advantage.
Picks: Jackson under 228.5 passing yards (-115), Jackson over 63.5 rushing yards (-115)
Marks: The Ravens and Browns will be missing a number of playmakers on both sides of the ball, are committed to the rushing game more than the pass, and play at a snail's pace, so I expect a low-scoring game. Jackson faced the Browns two weeks ago and rushed for over 65 yards, and I envision much of the same against a blitz-happy Browns defense. Baker Mayfield will be playing with an injured wide receiving corps and will need Donovan Peoples-Jones (10 targets over his past two games) and Austin Hooper to step up against a depleted Ravens secondary.
Picks: Under 43, Jackson over 63.5 rushing yards (-115), Freeman over 11.5 rushing attempts (-135), Hooper over 35.5 receiving yards (-120)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-8.5, 43.5)
Marks: Laquon Treadwell has become the wide receiver of choice for Trevor Lawrence as of late. Treadwell is playing 90% of the snaps, running routes in 70% of dropbacks, averaging six targets per game over his past two contests, and the Vikings' defense is allowing over 8 yards per target.
Pick: Treadwell over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 48)
Walder: The Chiefs are on a five-game winning streak, but all is not as well as it seems. Even during that stretch, they rank only 12th in offensive expected points added per play. Yes, the defense has been much, much better. But I'm not fully buying Kansas City's return to the top of power rankings. Nor is the Football Power Index, which ranks Kansas City only eighth.
In addition, I like Byron Pringle's over. His expected receiving yards per game has been 30.1. That's a decent bit above this line and doesn't consider that Pringle has been playing more recently. He has been on the field for between 46% and 72% of the snaps in each of the past six games. In the Chiefs' first six games, he played between 17% and 39%.
Pick: Raiders +9.5, Pringle over 23.5 receiving yards (-125)
Marks: I'm still not sold on this Chiefs offense that has been unable to score more than 22 points in five of the past six games. The Raiders allowed 41 points in the first matchup, but expect a different defense scheme and for this game to be a lot closer in Vegas. Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard aren't expected to play, so Josh Jacobs will get the lion's share of the touches in the Raiders' backfield. Pringle has become the second wide receiver option for Patrick Mahomes and put up 46 receiving yards against the Raiders a few weeks back. Hunter Renfrow is a target monster, averaging nine targets per game over the past five weeks.
Picks: Raiders +15.5 in 6-point teaser with Seahawks -2.5, Jacobs over 95.5 rushing/receiving yards (-105), Pringle over 23.5 receiving yards (-125), Renfrow over 6.5 receptions (-120)
Moody: The Chiefs rotate their wide receivers behind Tyreek Hill, and Demarcus Robinson is averaging only 2.2 targets and 16.4 yards receiving so far this season. But Patrick Mahomes, despite his ups and downs, is averaging 282 passing yards per game, and I expect Robinson to surpass 16.5 receiving yards. Mahomes threw for 406 yards against the Raiders in Week 10 and has averaged 327 passing yards per game in seven career games against the Raiders. Dak Prescott threw for 375 yards against Las Vegas.
Picks: Mahomes over 284.5 passing yards (-115), Robinson over 16.5 receiving yards (-115)
New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 43) at New York Jets
Fulghum: I realize the Saints' offense lacks the punch it once had, but this line seems to ignore just how big the coaching difference is between Sean Payton and Robert Saleh at the moment. The Jets' defense is putrid by just about every measure possible. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in points per game allowed, yards per play allowed and defensive EPA. Sean Payton should still be able to skewer this defense with Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara. Plus, I do not like the outlook for Zach Wilson and the Jets' offense matching up against a New Orleans pass funnel defense that is the best in the league against the run.
Picks: Saints -5.5, Hill over 54.5 rushing yards (+105), Kamara over 107.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110), Kamara scores TD (-185)
Marks: Hill gets no respect, I tell ya! Whatever Gardner Minshew did to the Jets last week, Hill can do better. Hill rushed for over 100 yards last week and will have a field day against a Jets rushing defense that is allowing over 180 rushing yards per game and has allowed 22 touchdowns to opposing backfields. Deonte Harris is suspended, so Tre'Quan Smith's target share will increase (he had seven targets last week). I'm playing the Saints in a two-team money-line parlay with the Seahawks, who should get another win Sunday against a Davis Mills-led Texans team.
Picks: Saints ML parlay with Seahawks (-118), Hill over 54.5 rushing yards (-115), Tre'Quan Smith over 18.5 receiving yards (-110), Hill scores TD (+108)
Kraemer: Seven of the past nine Jets games have gone over the total, thanks to a defense that is dead last in the NFL in most categories. The only two games the Jets held their opponents in check were in Weeks 11 and 12 against the Dolphins and Texans, which have two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. When the Jets face teams with strong offensive lines, they have shown no ability to slow them down. The Jets have been gashed against the run and on screen passes, two areas where the Saints excel, especially with Kamara returning this week. With Kamara back and Mark Ingram and Ty Montgomery dealing with COVID protocol, Kamara should get a heavy workload. Offensively, the Jets are second in total offense and 13th in points per drive over their past six games, so they should be able to contribute to the over.
Pick: Over 43, Kamara scores TD (-165)
Dallas Cowboys (-4, 48) at Washington Football Team
Schatz: The Cowboys have been inconsistent in recent weeks, with three losses in their past six games. Washington is red hot, with wins in four straight games. But this pick is about looking at the longer-term picture, not just recent weeks. Dallas is still fourth in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings and third in our weighted DVOA ratings that give less weight to early-season games. Washington is 21st overall in DVOA and, despite its recent winning streak, 22nd in weighted DVOA. That gap suggests a line larger than just four points between these teams. In particular, the Washington defense is just 30th against the pass, so this game looks good for Dak Prescott and the Dallas receivers. In particular, Washington struggles to cover the opposition's No. 2 receiver, where it ranks dead last in DVOA. Would that be CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper? Both could have big games.
Pick: Cowboys -4
Marks: The Cowboys do not win if they can't run the football, and they come into this game with both Ezekiel Elliott (knee) and Tony Pollard (foot) dealing with injuries. Washington has won four straight since its bye week, has found success in the running game and is playing a lot more aggressively on defense. Taylor Heinicke will find success on the ground and through the air, because Dallas is giving up over 14 yards per catch to opposing wideouts. Yes, you read that correctly.
Pick: Washington +10.5 in 6-point teaser with Chargers -4, Heinicke over 22.5 rushing yards (-115), Terry McLaurin over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Michael Gallup has averaged eight targets and 57 receiving yards per game since returning in Week 10. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper missed time or were hindered, which has helped him. Cooper should play a full allotment of snaps, so Gallup might see fewer targets. However, Washington's secondary is vulnerable. Its defense has allowed the third-most opponent passing yards per game (264). In addition, Lamb is also in a great position to succeed with his route running and ability to separate from defenders. He leads the Cowboys in receiving yards, targets, catches and touchdowns and is averaging 8.2 targets and 76.6 receiving yards per game.
McLaurin's reception totals have declined over the past four games as Washington has prioritized its running game. During that span, he has averaged 59 receiving yards per game. Washington might be forced to rely more on Heinicke and the passing game going against a Cowboys offense that leads the NFL in total yards per game (416.3). Over the past five games, the Washington Football Team's defense allowed 83 receiving yards per game to Deonte Harris, Hunter Renfrow, Tyreek Hill, Olamide Zaccheaus and Tim Patrick.
Picks: Gallup over 48.4 receiving yards (-115), Lamb over 71.5 receiving yards (-110), McLaurin over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 42)
Schatz: We don't know what we're going to get out of Cam Newton after two very different games since returning to the Panthers. But we know what we're going to get out of the Falcons, and it won't be much. Despite five wins, they really aren't very good. They've been blown out a lot this year and currently rank dead last in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings (31st on offense, 29th on defense, and 32nd on special teams). We also know what we're going to get out of the Panthers' defense. It has been pretty good this year, especially against the pass, where it ranks fifth. The Panthers are only 20th against the run, but it will be hard for the Falcons' offense (31st in run offense DVOA) to take advantage of that. Carolina beat Atlanta 19-13 earlier this season -- one of the Falcons' rare close losses -- and I expect something similar this week. The Panthers, who have one of the best defenses in the league against tight ends, held Kyle Pitts to just two catches and 13 yards in that game.
Pick: Panthers -2.5
Walder: I know Newton looked horrendous last week, but Carolina is
Pick: Panthers -2.5
Marks: The Panthers are coming off a bye with a new playcaller in Jeff Nixon. They have had two weeks to fine-tune an offense that will be engineered to help Newton have success. Jobs are on the line, and the Panthers need to shine against a Falcons defense that is last in pressure rate and has only 15 sacks on the season. With Christian McCaffrey done for the season, Chuba Hubbard takes over the backfield and should see the lion's share of carries.
Pick: Panthers -2.5, Newton scores TD (+150)
Moody Newton's return to Carolina has brought both highs and lows this season. In his first start against the Washington Football Team, he passed for a touchdown and ran for another. In the following week's game against the Dolphins, the wheels came off. He threw two interceptions and averaged just 4.4 passing yards per attempt. Newton had a bye week at the perfect time to recalibrate. He is expected to start Sunday against a Falcons team that allowed 269.6 passing yards per game over the past five weeks to Tom Brady, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, Dak Prescott and Trevor Siemian.
Pick: Newton over 191.5 passing yards (+100)
Seattle Seahawks (-8.5, 41.5) at Houston Texans
Bearman: I've been playing Seattle unders the past few weeks, taking advantage of Russell Wilson's rushed finger recovery and an offense that put up 28 total points over the previous three games. That came back to hurt me last week as the Seahawks put up 30 vs. the Niners. Of course, when you bet, you aren't counting on a 73-yard fake punt TD and a safety either, so that 30 points is a little inflated. The Seahawks' offense is still averaging only 12.3 PPG game since their bye and the Seattle defense has held opponents to 16.7 PPG over the past six games, sixth best in the league.
On the home sideline, we have the 2-10 Houston Texans, owners of the worst offense in the league and one of the worst we've seen in a long time. Houston averages 13.7 points, 254.5 yards, 78.8 rush yards and 175.8 pass yards per game. All but the passing yards (31st) are dead last. And that's 11.5 points per game since Week 1's 37-21 win over the Jags. Not surprisingly, the past four Texans games have all gone under the total, and no one has played more unders than the Seahawks (9-2-1 to the under). I do not expect a lot of points in this one. Could Seattle reach 30 without a fake punt? Sure. But then the Texans would have to score in double figures, something they have done in only half their games this season.
Pick: Under 41.5
Kezirian: A major pitfall of betting the NFL is focusing on what you last saw. While Wilson did play his best game since returning from injury just last weekend, I am viewing it more as a confirmation that he is healthy. I know what he's capable of because of a great career; I just needed to see it after three subpar games. Along the same lines, I have seen enough of Davis Mills. The rookie QB has been dreadful. The Texans have failed to muster double-digit points in four of his six starts. He somehow played very well against New England, throwing three TD passes, but he has been very poor in every other outing. Seattle is 4-8, but that record is misleading, given Wilson missed three games and struggled in the next three.
Pick: Seahawks -8.5
Walder: I haven't seen a reason yet to not fade DK Metcalf. This receiving total is out of line with his expected receiving yards per game (47.4), and even in victory last week, Wilson posted a QBR of only 30.8. Wilson has been shaky since returning from his finger injury, and while he might return to form at some point, I don't think it makes sense to assume this is the week that happens until, well, it happens.
Pick: Metcalf under 62.5 receiving yards (-105)
Moody: Brandin Cooks is averaging 8.2 targets, 61.7 receiving yards and 91 receiving air yards per game and will play an active role in the Texans' offense no matter who the quarterback is against a Seahawks defense that has allowed 275.8 passing yards per contest.
Since Wilson returned from injury, Metcalf has seen only two more targets than Tyler Lockett. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron said a few weeks ago that he wants Metcalf to be more involved in the Seahawks' offense, and Sunday brings a golden opportunity. Metcalf is averaging 7.1 targets and 59.2 receiving yards per game this season and has a good chance of exceeding those averages against a Texans defense that over the past five games has allowed Michael Pittman Jr., Elijah Moore, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jaylen Waddle and Cooper Kupp to average 85.6 receiving yards per game against it.
Picks: Cooks over 57.5 receiving yards (-115), Metcalf over 62.5 receiving yards (-125)