As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 14!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 16-9-11
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13, 45)
FPI Implied Line: Packers -10
There's quarterback uncertainty here, but no matter how it shakes out FPI will be on the Bears. We have Fields set as the more likely starter right now, but he's also the quarterback the model thinks is currently worse ... and it still believes this is too many points.
Green Bay clearly has the edge on both sides of the ball. Looking at Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, the Packers have been the fourth-best offensive team and the Bears have been the fourth worst. Defensively the edge is smaller, 14th to 22nd, respectively.
How much is that difference worth going forward? FPI makes it 8.8 points, then gives the Packers a bonus for home field and another for coming off a bye. That brings our mean prediction up to 11.8 points. However, what we're looking for here is FPI's median prediction -- and that's 10, a relatively common scoring number. Note that part of the shrinking effect here is because the total isn't particularly high. If this total were, say, 51, we'd move another half-point in the Packers' direction.
FPI's side: Bears +13
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3, 43.5)
FPI Implied Line: Panthers -5
There's one key piece of information we know FPI does not know: The Panthers fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady on Sunday. Brady is well regarded, but is his absence the entire explanation of the difference between FPI and the oddsmakers? I doubt it.
I think there's another factor here: Cam Newton. In his return as a starter for Carolina, Newton completely flopped last week, posting a 5.9 Total QBR. There's every reason to be pessimistic given that performance. But the model takes into account Newton's performance, weighing his most recent play most heavily and also penalizing him for not playing earlier this year. It, rightfully, is not going to completely change its opinion on someone just because of one game.
In the end, it still prefers Newton to Sam Darnold but barely -- which is not exactly an endorsement of Newton. Even given that, it still likes Carolina by more than a field goal.
FPI's side: Panthers -3
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 53.5)
FPI Implied Line: Buccaneers -2
FPI is never going to quit the Bills. Even after another Bucs win (30-17 at the Falcons), our model still makes Buffalo and Tampa Bay virtual equals going forward (with a very slight edge toward Buffalo). As of this writing the Bills are first in defensive EPA per play and fifth in offensive EPA per play, while Tampa is eighth and first, respectively -- hence, FPI seeing them as very similar going forward.
Home-field advantage has decreased in the NFL and isn't worth a full field goal -- not even with Tampa Bay getting an extra day's rest. While Buffalo's rating could change in either direction after Monday night, as of Sunday night, FPI sees the Bills getting a field goal plus the hook as a value.
FPI's side: Bills +3.5
Early Week 14 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 45)
Sunday
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (Pick 'em, 43.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-11, 43.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints (-6, 44) at New York Jets
Dallas Cowboys (-5, 49) at Washington Football Team
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3. 43.5)
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 43.5) at Houston Texans
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, 45.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 47.5)
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 53)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13, 45)
Monday
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 52)