As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 12!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 15-5-11*
*Closing line value for Giants-Buccaneers Week 11 Monday night game based on line as of this article's posting
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 46.5) at New York Giants
FPI Implied Line: Eagles -1.5
The Eagles are ... kind of hot right now? They've won three of their past four. None were against amazing teams but hey, at least Philly is winning games over mediocre opponents.
The real breakout has been Jalen Hurts. Between Weeks 6 and 10, Hurts led the NFL in Total QBR (as of this writing, his Week 11 QBR hadn't been calculated yet). And the Eagles averaged 4.8 yards per carry Sunday against the best rush defense in the league, New Orleans. Clearly, they're a legitimately dangerous team on the ground.
All that being said, FPI isn't buying the Eagles all the way yet. This is a team that going into the year FPI forecast to be the 28th-best in football. They've exceeded those expectations by quite a bit, and as a result we have them as the 19th-best team going forward. That's a big upgrade! But is that a more than a field goal favorite on the road kind of rank? Against the Giants -- who are bad but not, like, Jets bad or Jaguars bad -- FPI doesn't see it that way.
Particularly because FPI is on the other side of the key number 3, this is a significant difference between the model and the oddsmakers, really the only one of the week as of this writing.
FPI's side: Giants +3.5
Futures
Tennessee Titans to Win AFC (+700)
FPI Projection: 16% (+525)
FPI likes buying low on the Titans here after an embarrassing loss to the Texans.
In fact: the Texans and Jets are the two worst teams in football, per FPI, and the Titans have now lost to both of them. Strange! But Tennessee does have impressive wins under its belt, too.
Yes, there's fair reason to be concerned about the Titans' offense without Derrick Henry. But this bet is more about the Titans' situation than how good they are, because FPI has really never been in on Tennessee. It makes Mike Vrabel's team just the 15th best in football right now. Very much middle of the pack!
But what the Titans do have is an advantageous position in the standings. They're a game up on the Chiefs, perhaps the scariest team in the AFC behind them. But it's really a game and a half, because Tennessee already beat Kansas City earlier this year. Plus, the Titans have an easy schedule down the stretch, with the Jaguars, Dolphins and Texans making up three of their final six opponents. Put it all together and FPI gives Tennessee a 40% shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference, the best of anyone. That top spot comes with a bye (and probably a weaker divisional-round opponent), and would give Tennessee a shot at the Super Bowl even if isn't actually as strong as the other contenders in the conference.
Early Week 12 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
Chicago Bears (-3.5, 42) at Detroit Lions
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 50.5)
Buffalo Bills (-4.5, 46.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 51) at Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (PK, 43)
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5.5, 44.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 46.5) at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons (-1, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
New York Jets at Houston Texans (-3, 44)
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-2, 50)
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 48.5)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 46)
Monday
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 56) at Washington Football Team