Intro by Doug Kezirian
Riding a three-game win streak, are the Chiefs back as a juggernaut and Super Bowl contender? That is what many bettors and oddsmakers are asking themselves, and we should get a solid answer this Sunday when they host the Cowboys as 2.5-point favorites.
"We did open this game pick 'em, which would indicate in our opinion that Dallas is the better team because Kansas City gets a little bit of a bump with the game being at home," John Murray told ESPN, explaining the line prior to Kansas City's game in Las Vegas on Sunday night. "We reopened it with Kansas City as a 2.5-point favorite after the Chiefs' performance on Sunday night."
Many bookmakers expect this game to be the most heavily bet of the weekend. Early action indicates this will be fairly evenly bet, but the public will certainly back the over.
"You almost can't have a high enough number on a game like this," Murray said. "At some point you will see some resistance from the wise guys who will bet the under, but we haven't gotten there yet."
Kansas City covered last week against the Raiders but is still just 3-7 ATS this season. Dallas is 8-1 ATS, which is the league's second-best mark behind only Green Bay at 9-1.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (12-19-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (8-20, 0-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (34-23-1, 1-5) and Anita Marks (165-146, 13-24), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (79-60, 6-7), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (41-39, 3-2) and Mackenzie Kraemer (3-8, 1-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (21-17-1, 1-3) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (34-24, 1-4) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 11 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Colts-Bills | Ravens-Bears | Lions-Browns | Texans-Titans | Packers-Vikings | Dolphins-Jets | Saints-Eagles | Washington-Panthers | 49ers-Jaguars | Bengals-Raiders | Cowboys-Chiefs | Cardinals-Seahawks | Steelers-Chargers
8:20 p.m. ET game
Kraemer: The Steelers are 15-4-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons, and they are 3-1 outright as an underdog this season. This line is simply too much credit to a Chargers team that has won one game by more than six points all season. While Mason Rudolph struggled last week, he's not much of a downgrade from Ben Roethlisberger. Expect the Steelers to lean on the running game again, and the Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL in virtually every category. Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery are currently on the COVID-19 list, which could further deplete that run defense. This should be a close game, and getting the key numbers of 3, 4, and 6, the Steelers should stay within the number. I also lean towards the under, but for the purposes of this column, I will take Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers +6
4 p.m. ET games
Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 49.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Fortenbaugh: Cincinnati's ninth-ranked scoring offense is coming in hot after a bye week that followed back-to-back losses to the Jets and Browns, so you have to figure Joe Burrow & company are licking their lips at the sight of that Las Vegas defense, which just got torched by the Chiefs for 41 points on Sunday night. Take note that Vegas home games are averaging a healthy 51.6 points per outing. The Raiders offense has frosted over a bit in recent weeks but should have enough firepower to cover their end of the bargain in this one.
Pick: Over 49.5
Bearman: Holiday season means Raiders swoon. Happens every year like clockwork, but it was a little earlier this time around due to the myriad of off-field issues and poor play. The Raiders finished off the last two seasons 2-5 and 1-5 and this year are 0-2 since their bye. Cincinnati is off a bye and has more talent top to bottom. I like the Bengals at almost pick 'em here but like the over better. That new stadium, or maybe the Raiders defense, is an overs heaven (11-2 to the over), but either way, the Bengals have the right offense to keep that trend going. Four of the five games at Allegiant Stadium this year have hit 55 or more, with the only missing one being a Matt Nagy-Justin Fields production. Twenty-two points is the least Las Vegas has given up at home this season, even allowing 29 to the 30th-ranked Miami offense with Jacoby Brissett. The Bengals, meanwhile, have allowed 75 points over their last two games -- to the Jets and Browns. Not good. Before those two losses, they scored 75 points in two wins and currently have the ninth-ranked scoring offense at 26.2 points per game. A good offense, struggling defense and playing in Las Vegas ... we take the over.
Pick: Over 49.5
Schatz: C.J. Uzomah is a boom-and-bust tight end, with two 90-yard, two-touchdown games this year but 35 yards or less in the other seven contests. I like him to find a space somewhere in the middle against a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in DVOA covering tight ends. The Raiders have allowed at least 30 yards to opposing tight ends in seven of nine games this season.
Pick: Uzomah over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
Walder: I'm back again to my favorite bet of 2021: fading Ja'Marr Chase after his hot start. The aforementioned stat I typically rely on for these props -- expected receiving yards per game -- is usually very close to the line. It's the outliers that I pay close attention to -- and this is an extreme one. Chase's expected receiving yards per game has been just 46.5. It's a credit to him that his actual receiving yards per game is 92.8, but I'm happy to bet on the consistency of the opportunity rather than his ability to exceed it. And while the Raiders do have a below average pass defense, that is priced in. In Chase's last game, this line was 73.5 and he went way under, and the line has gone up, presumably because of Las Vegas.
Pick: Chase under 75.5 receiving yards (-115)
Fulghum: The Bengals have steadily increased their throw rate from the season's beginning to where we are now. Joe Burrow is fully recovered from the knee injury, the offensive line has held up, and -- of course -- Chase has been absolutely balling, giving the team three very capable wideouts. A matchup against Las Vegas shouldn't invoke any change, and Tyler Boyd has the lowest threshold to clear and should see about an 18-22% target share
Pick: Burrow over 268.5 passing yards (-115), Boyd over 41.5 receiving yards (-115)
Moody: Derek Carr's 261 passing yards last week against the Chiefs were his third-lowest of the season. The Raiders quarterback averages 314 passing yards per game. Aaron Rodgers (344), Jared Goff (202), Lamar Jackson (257), Mike White (405) and Baker Mayfield (218) have averaged 285.2 passing yards per game against the Bengals over the last five games. Carr should be able to surpass that per-game number, and Hunter Renfrow should remain a key component of the Raiders' passing game. Since the beginning of the season, he has caught at least five balls in every game except one. Over the last two games, he has stockpiled 18 targets.
Picks: Carr over 282.5 passing yards (-115), Renfrow over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Bengals are coming off a bye to face a Raiders defense that is allowing teams to score in 75% of their red zone possessions. The Raiders play a ton of Cover 3, which Burrow thrives in. I expect him and Tee Higgins to pick up where they left off before the bye week (Higgins was averaging 10 targets per game).
Pick: Bengals -1, Higgins over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 56)
Kezirian: Let's pump the brakes in assuming the Chiefs are now back to being among the league's elite teams. They have won three straight games, but the opponents don't mean much to me. They defeated the Giants, Raiders and Packers without Aaron Rodgers. They only covered one of those wins, and that dominant win over Las Vegas still had some question marks. Patrick Mahomes got away with some risky passes. I think Dallas is the better team and I trust them a lot more.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Fortenbaugh: I'm not buying into Kansas City's recent three-game winning streak, as the Chiefs defeated an imploding Raiders outfit, the Packers without Rodgers and the lousy Giants. And they only covered the spread in one of those contests! Kansas City still ranks 30th in both turnover differential and opponent yards per play as well as 17th in penalties per game. To put it bluntly, this is an undisciplined squad at the moment. On the flip side, Dallas is 4-0 against the spread on the road this season while beating the closing number by an average of 6.1 points per game.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5, Cowboys +8.5 in 6-point teaser with Buffalo -1
Schatz: It certainly looked like the Kansas City offense was back to its usual explosive ways in last week's big win over Las Vegas, but overall the longer term is a better guideline than the short term. In the longer term, over the course of this entire season, Kansas City has certainly been a better team than its record -- remember, there's a lot of randomness to turnovers -- but Dallas has been a better team than that. Football Outsiders DVOA has Dallas third and Kansas City 14th. ESPN's FPI, giving more strength to offense, has the two teams closer, but Dallas is still fourth with Kansas City eighth. What about Dallas being stuck on the road? Yes, Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest places to play in the NFL, but it's likely susceptible to the same disappearance of home-field advantage we've seen around the rest of the league in 2021. The Chiefs have already lost twice at home this season.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Kraemer: I will get on the Cowboys cover train, which is now 8-1 ATS on the season, the second-best mark behind only the Packers. The Cowboys have been the better offensive team this season, ranking third in EPA per play, compared to the Chiefs at fifth, and the Cowboys appear to be getting back to full strength with Michael Gallup returning last week and Tyron Smith on track to play this week. Defensively, it's no contest, with the Cowboys ranking fifth in EPA and the Chiefs at 30th. Outside of Mahomes vs. Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have the edge at almost every unit, and even there, Prescott edges out Mahomes in Total QBR this season. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS at home this season, while the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS on the road. Maybe the Chiefs turned a corner last week, but they haven't covered back-to-back games in over a year, and I don't expect that to change this week.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Marks: The wrong team is favored here. KC is 0-5 ATS at home this season, and the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS on the road. This line is a reaction to the Chiefs win last week. Dallas' defense will be the fastest KC will have faced all season and their secondary will be able to match up with the Chief's speedy receivers. I'm still not buying KC's improved defense and the Cowboys explosive offense will be too much for them to handle.
Pick: Cowboys +8.5 in 2-team teaser WFT +9.5
Schatz: The most important thing about the Seahawks is to understand the difference between what Russell Wilson and Geno Smith have done this season. Yes, Wilson had a very bad game against Green Bay a week ago. It's possible that his finger is still injured and that has sapped him of his abilities. It's also possible that it was just a bad game. Even including last week's shutout, Seattle's offensive DVOA is fifth in the games Wilson started compared to 25th in the games Smith started. The quality of Seattle's offense when Wilson starts is enough to make this line a 50-50 proposition, even if Kyler Murray starts for the Cardinals. But the possibility that Colt McCoy makes another start while the Cardinals hold Murray back through the Week 12 bye pushes this pick over the edge and makes it a strong value.
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
1 p.m. ET games
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7, 50)
Bearman: I believe the Colts continue to be undervalued in the betting market due to their 0-3 start. They've won five of their last seven, but I do recognize none of the five are vs. winnings teams (Miami, Houston, SF, Jets, Jacksonville). More relevant to this discussion are the losses, which have come by three and nine points to the Titans, three to the Rams, six to the Ravens and 12 in Week 1 to Seattle. All except the first week were one-score games late. They have beaten bad teams big and lost close, competitive games to good teams, which they face this week in the Bills.
Indy's defense has quietly jumped into the top 10 in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, and they have the second-best rushing offense since that 0-3 start, one yard less than the Eagles. The Bills, who will attempt to stop the Indy rushing attack with the third-best rush defense, continue to befuddle bettors. Some weeks they look like Super Bowl contenders, blowing out KC and the Jets, and other weeks they sneak by Miami and lose to Jacksonville. Not to take anything away from the AFC East leaders, but of their six wins, only one can be considered vs. a good team, and that was the Chiefs. They beat Washington, Miami twice, the Jets and Texans. This is a step up in class, and while I think the Bills will slow down Jonathan Taylor and win the game, seven points is too many to give here.
Pick: Colts +7
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 45) at Chicago Bears
Schatz: Justin Fields finally broke out with a huge 291-yard passing day against Pittsburgh last week. But that's just one game. You shouldn't put extra stock in Fields' big day, because it was against the Steelers; the Pittsburgh defense has been just average against the pass this year. And in his previous six starts, Fields never got higher than 210 passing yards. So I'm on Fields and the under this week despite the fact that the Ravens defense this year has also not been up to its usual historical standard and ranks just 24th in DVOA against the pass. Don't forget that the weather forecast (chillier, with light winds and a 25% chance of rain) also favors running. Our numbers suggest we should expect Fields to go under this prop 72% of the time.
Pick: Fields under 217.5 passing yards (-115)
Walder: Running back David Montgomery has been averaging 11.2 expected receiving yards per game this season based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats, so this line seems a bit high. Add in that the Ravens play an above average amount of man coverage, which results in fewer completions to running backs, and I'm definitely going under.
Pick: Montgomery under 17.5 receiving yards (-120)
Moody: Before the Bears' bye week, Fields completed 17 of 29 passes for 291 yards and one touchdown against the Steelers in his best game to date. He gained 45 yards on eight carries. Fields now faces a Ravens defense that has allowed 283.3 passing yards per game, including recent 400-yard passing performances from Carson Wentz (402) and Joe Burrow (416). He could also succeed as a runner in this matchup. During Fields' last four games, he has averaged eight rushes and 57.2 rushing yards. Additionally, he has thrown an interception in each of his last four starts. An interception in five consecutive starts would be tied for the second-longest streak by a rookie quarterback over the past five seasons.
This season, Montgomery is averaging 18.6 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 87.6 yards per game. While the Bears' offensive line ranks 11th in run block win rate, the Ravens' defense ranks fourth in run stop win rate. Montgomery should play an active role in the Bears offense as a receiver out of the backfield and as a runner.
Picks: Fields over 217.5 passing yards (-115), Fields over 35.5 rushing yards (-115), Fields over 0.5 INTs (-160), Fields over 7.5 rushing attempts (+115), Montgomery over 84.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Marks: Fields has slowly developed into the quarterback the Bears thought he could become. The Ravens have allowed 12 touchdowns from outside the red zone and play a lot of man coverage, so expect Fields to run the ball a lot. Fields has posted over 38 rushing yards in each of his last four games.
Pick: Over 39 in 6-point teaser with Lions-Browns under 49.5, Fields over 35.5 rushing yards (-115)
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-11.5, 43.5)
Marks: The Browns and Lions are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL, both starting quarterbacks are dealing with injuries and both teams are committed to running the ball. They will look for sustained long drives while eating up time of possession.
Pick: Under 49.5 in 6-point teaser with the Ravens-Bears over 39
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10, 44.5)
Fulghum: With Julio Jones on IR and Derrick Henry on the shelf with an injury, the Titans offense is now distilled to just A.J. Brown absolutely dominating target share. He has seen 30.8% of Ryan Tannehill's targets over the past six games. A matchup against Houston's awful defense should yield an absolute eruption game from one of the most physically gifted wideouts in the sport.
Pick: Brown over 72.5 receiving yards (-115), Brown longest reception over 24.5 yards (-110)
Marks: Teams are scoring over 65% in games against the Texans, and yet the Texans offense is only scoring 23%. Tyrod Taylor will have a tough go at it against a Titans defense that is ranked 12th in pressure and sack rate. I expect D'Onta Foreman to get the bulk of the carries in a revenge game for him against his former team that cut him after he suffered a knee injury.
Pick: Titans -4 in 6-point teaser with the Bills -1, D Foreman OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)
Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 49) at Minnesota Vikings
Fortenbaugh: How about some love for the Green Bay defense? While all the attention has been on quarterback Aaron Rodgers (shocker) this season, the other side of the ball has quietly put together a remarkable campaign, as evidenced by the fact that the Packers currently rank third in the NFL in both scoring defense and opponent yards per play and have allowed just 13.8 points per game over their last seven outings. Throw in the fact that the offense ranks dead last in the NFL in pace and you have some key ingredients for an under wager. As for Minnesota, it's the standard Jekyll and Hyde act we've become accustomed to, with the defense allowing an impressive 17 points per game at home this season as opposed to an unimpressive 28.6 points per game on the road.
Pick: Under 49
Moody: Aaron Rodgers is averaging 242.9 passing yards per game this season and has three games over 270 yards. From 2016 to 2020, he averaged only 265.3 passing yards per game. Rodgers has amassed 6,130 passing yards in 25 career games against the Vikings (245.2 average). This trend continues in Week 11, which opens the door for A.J. Dillon to have a monster game, considering Minnesota's defense allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game (130.6) and ranks 32nd in run stop win rate. Last week, Dillon rushed for 66 yards against the Seahawks after Aaron Jones sustained a knee injury near the end of the third quarter. He is physically capable of handling a large workload. While playing for Boston College from 2017 to 2019, Dillon rushed for 1,000 yards or more in each season. Throughout his collegiate career, he rushed for 150 or more yards in 14 games, and he exceeded 200 yards rushing in four games. Among his Boston College records are rushing yards and touchdowns. With 845 rushing attempts during his college career, Dillon missed just two games. I expect him to put up big numbers against Minnesota's defense.
Picks: Rodgers under 270.5 total passing yards (-115), Dillon over 79.5 rushing yards (-120)
Marks: Aaron Jones is out, and the next man up is AJ Dillon, who will get a ton of volume this week. He received 23 touches last week which produced 128 yards and 2 touchdowns. This week he has a juicy matchup against the Vikings' rush defense that ranks 31st in the NFL.
Pick: AJ Dillon over 112.5 rushing and receiving yards (-110)
Miami Dolphins (-3, 44.5) at New York Jets
Bearman: The Jets have allowed 45, 45, 31 and 54 points the last four games. The 175 points over the four-game span is the second-most allowed in the last 50 years, per our ESPN Stats & Information department. If the beleaguered Miami offense was ever going to figure it out, it would be against this defense. However, they couldn't against Houston and used defense to score vs. Baltimore. The Dolphins offense is 29th in total yards, 32nd in rushing and 21st in passing. The offensive line is last in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate model. And the Jets offense isn't much better, no matter who the QB is. They are 22nd in total yards, 30th in rushing and 11th in passing, mostly in trying to keep up with the defensive ineptitude (see the Colts game).
Meanwhile, Miami seems to have located it's missing defense from 2020 over the last three games, which is why the make-no-sense Jets are switching to veteran Joe Flacco. According to NFL's Next-Gen Stats, the 38 times Miami used their DBs to blitz Lamar Jackson last week is the most by any team since they started charting in 2016. Not sure Flacco knows what is coming. Even though the Jets have played historically bad on defense, a Dolphins-Jets game, including the four with Brian Flores at Miami, has not gone over 45 since 2017. All six of those games were Dolphins covers, but laying three points on the road doesn't sound like a good idea with this squad. As scary as it sounds with the Jets defense, I would play the under here. They are not going to allow the Dolphins to score at will. Plus, I am attending it, which historically makes it automatically an unwatchable punt-fest.
Pick: Under 44.5
Marks: Since Malcolm Brown has been inactive, Myles Gaskin has stepped into the lead back role for the Fins. The Dolphins have a difficult time running on anyone, but this a favorable matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed 20 touchdowns to opposing ball-carriers. I expect this game to be close, considering Flacco is getting the start, and Gaskin should be a part of the passing attack.
Pick: Gaskin over 3.5 receptions (+105)
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 43)
Marks: The Eagles have found a rhythm running ball, which has been a huge reason for their success the last few weeks. The Saints have allowed opposing quarterbacks to run the ball this season (Taylor Heinicke put up 40 yards on the ground against them). As for the Saints, with Trevor Siemian under center, Deonte Harris leads the team in targets with 17, and Adam Trautman has a juicy matchup against an Eagles defense that has had a difficult time defending tight ends.
Picks: Eagles -1.5, Hurts over 47.5 rushing yards (-115), Trautman over 25.5 receiving yards (-115), Harris over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
Schatz: Somehow, Siemian has not thrown an interception this season. But he has certainly been in danger of throwing a pick, over and over again. History shows that passes defensed are a stronger indicator of future interceptions than past interceptions. Essentially, a certain percentage of passes defensed will get semi-randomly turned into interceptions in the same way a certain percentage of forced fumbles will randomly be turned into fumble recoveries. Siemian had four passes defensed in half a game in Week 8, then 10 passes defensed in Week 9 and another seven in Week 10. One of these days, one of those passes defensed is going to be turned into an interception. It may even happen for an Eagles defense that has only six interceptions this year and averages just 2.1 passes defensed per game.
Pick: Siemian over 0.5 interceptions (-115)
Walder: The Saints run defense has been absurdly good; they're allowing opponents 2.85 yards per designed carry, which is on pace to be the lowest in our dataset since 2006. They're also first in run stop win rate, an ESPN metric that's powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. Now, Jalen Hurts can still scramble and that's not included in the designed carry stat I mentioned at the top, but roughly half his rushes are by design. I'm fading the Eagles ground game based on the matchup.
Pick: Hurts under 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
Moody: Over their first 10 career games, Hurts, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III are the only quarterbacks with 2,000 or more passing yards, 500 or more rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Hurts is in a good spot against a Saints defense that over the last five games has allowed quarterbacks to pass for 269.2 yards per game. He has also amassed 547 rushing yards through Week 10. The only other quarterback with more is Lamar Jackson.
DeVonta Smith has caught nine of 12 targets for 182 receiving yards over the last two weeks. With 603 receiving yards this season -- third most among rookies -- Smith is looking to become the second Eagles player with 650 receiving yards in his first 11 career games since 1970 (DeSean Jackson had 699 in 2008). It's remarkable how well Smith runs routes for a rookie, and he is also proving he can win at catch points, too. He's capable of being productive against shadow coverage from Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
Picks: Hurts over 207.5 total passing yards (-115), Hurts over 46.5 rushing yards (-115), Smith over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 43)
Kraemer: Both of these teams pulled off major upsets last week, but I trust Carolina more long term, mostly because of its defense. The Panthers rank third in defensive efficiency, and they're even better now that Shaq Thompson is back healthy and in the lineup. Meanwhile, Washington has a natural flat spot after upsetting the Buccaneers last week and hosting a Monday Night Football game next week. Washington is banged up offensively and they lost Chase Young for the season on defense. Plus, while I don't like to handicap emotion, Cam Newton's return home to Carolina should give a jolt to the Panthers' fan base and cause a great atmosphere in the Queen City. Washington has lost seven times this season, all by at least four points, and I think it becomes eight on Sunday.
Pick: Panthers -3.5
Marks: Cam will start on Sunday, but my expectations are low, considering he needs to get up to speed in a new offense. Washington's playoff hopes are still alive, and it enters this game with swag after beating the Bucs last week.
Pick: Washington +9.5 in 6-point teaser with Cowboys +8.5
San Francisco 49ers (-6, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Schatz: I'm not sure people realize quite how good the 49ers' offense has been this season, partly because they have played the fifth-toughest schedule of opposing defenses. The 49ers are currently sixth in yards per play, but if you factor in the schedule they rise to third in offensive DVOA. For all the criticism he gets as a product of scheme, Jimmy Garoppolo is 11th in the league in QBR. Offense is also the better side of the ball for Jacksonville, which ranks 24th on offense but 28th on defense.
You might expect a strong game for the 49ers until the Jaguars score a few points late while trying to catch up. But it's more likely that the Jaguars keep this game surprisingly close in the first half but gradually give way to the 49ers' offensive assault. Jacksonville is second in the league in rushing DVOA and their offense ranks ninth in the league in the first quarter, before it drops to 22nd or lower in the second through fourth quarters. The Jaguars will need to score their points before they have to give up on the running game because of a big San Francisco lead. Nevertheless, we have this game going over 45 points in 75% of simulations.
Pick: Over 45
Marks: Elijah Mitchell is dealing with a finger injury, and the 49ers added Deebo Samuel to the rushing equation last week. Samuel rushed six times for 22 yards. If Mitchell is limited, I expect much of the same in Week 11.
Pick: Samuel over 5.5 rushing yards (-120)