As soon as games wrap up on a Sunday, sportsbooks have to react quickly and set their early lines for the following week. They aren't the only ones: This season, we're running ESPN's Football Power Index immediately upon conclusion of the 4 p.m. ET window so we can compare our numbers with those from Caesars Sportsbook.
That early comparison, before the market has fully materialized, is probably our best chance to find a line that's a little off. And it gives us a chance to potentially get ahead of line movement.
Our point of comparison is FPI's implied line. FPI's standard game predictions are means that don't account for the intricacies of football's scoring -- like 3 and 7 being key numbers -- but our implied line represents a median prediction given an understanding of the scoring environment. That's a long way of saying this is a better apples-to-apples comparison for betting.
Because we're trying to jump on early lines immediately after games, I think the best way for us to measure success is through closing line value. More than anything, we're looking for movement in the right direction. So I'm keeping a running tally -- for both games and futures -- in this spot each week.
Now, let's dive into Week 11!
Closing line value record (W-L-T): 12-5-11
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens (-6, 45) at Chicago Bears
FPI Implied Line: Ravens -3.5
The Ravens have sneakily been worse than you think this season on a play-by-play efficiency level. The biggest shocker is the defense, which has quietly been below average all season, ranking 21st in EPA per play. They have virtually no edge over Chicago on defense, both efficiency-wise and in terms of what FPI expects going forward.
While the offense has been Baltimore's better side of the ball, that unit was put on blast by the Miami Dolphins in a prime-time game Thursday. Miami, which ranked 27th in EPA per play heading into that game, successfully blitzed the heck out of the Ravens and stifled Lamar Jackson and Co.
Was it an aberration? Perhaps. Baltimore ranked seventh in EPA per play on offense entering that contest. But it happened, and every data point counts. Chicago's offense is certainly worse -- Justin Fields had the worst QBR in the league entering Week 10 -- and that's where Baltimore's edge almost entirely lies.
Keep in mind that Chicago is not only home but it has a rest advantage coming off a bye (albeit a slightly muted one because the Ravens had a mini-bye, too), which is part of the reason why FPI would make this line lower than you might expect.
FPI's side: Bears +6
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5, 50.5)
FPI Implied Line: Buccaneers -9
It doesn't look like the Bucs are going to hold on to the No. 1 FPI rank for very long. Through our initial run Sunday evening they dropped behind the Bills after Buffalo took care of business against the Jets and the Bucs were somehow beaten on both sides of the ball by Washington, who ranked 27th in FPI entering Sunday.
The Bucs have now dropped to 11th in EPA per play on defense, a dip from last season's Super Bowl team that ranked fifth in the same category.
FPI would have made this game a 10-point spread on Sunday morning. After Tampa Bay's performance, it dropped its number to 9. Caesars also moved its line by a point -- though from 12.5 before Sunday's game to 11.5, a less significant point drop than 10 to 9. So the differential here is both partially because FPI already had the difference between these two teams as smaller than Caesars, and also because it moved a little more after Sunday.
Like with Chicago, the Giants are coming off a bye, and get a little rest advantage boost in FPI's prediction as a result.
FPI's side: Giants +11.5
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 43.5)
FPI Implied Line: Panthers -3.5
We're working under the assumption that Cam Newton is the starter for this game. While FPI penalizes quarterbacks pretty harshly when they don't play for an extended period of time -- it figures that the QB is either injured or deemed not good enough to earn playing time -- it still believes Carolina is a little better off with Newton than with Sam Darnold. As it should, in my opinion, because Darnold ranks 28th in QBR this year.
But you know who ranks 27th? Taylor Heinicke. Even after Washington stunned the Bucs on Sunday. So as long as Carolina can get anything better from Newton than what Darnold gave them -- and they should -- they'll have the quarterback advantage in this one.
Carolina's defense has also been under-the-radar good: It ranks third in EPA per play on that side of the ball, with a particular strength against the pass. The Panthers rank fourth in pass rush win rate, with Brian Burns and Haason Reddick leading the charge. Washington, in contrast, ranks 30th in EPA per play on defense, and defensive lineman Chase Young suffered what Ron Rivera described as "potentially an ACL" tear on Sunday.
FPI's side: Panthers -2.5
Early Week 11 lines (as of 10 p.m. ET Sunday, via Caesars Sportsbook)
Thursday
New England Patriots (-5.5, 46.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 44)
Miami Dolphins (-3, 45.5) at New York Jets
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 43.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7, 49.5)
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-10, 46)
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 46.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10, 45.5)
Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 49.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens (-6, 45) at Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
Arizona Cardinals (-2, 50) at Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 47.5)
Monday
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5, 50.5)