Intro by Doug Kezirian
Like it or not, the College Football Playoff rankings have an impact. And oddsmakers are part of that reach.
"We're probably going to have to keep an eye on the Cincinnati line because of motivation," Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN. The undefeated Bearcats are ranked No. 6, which is a far cry from being second-ranked in the voter polls. "[The CFP release] made them more motivated."
Similarly, there is also a negative to getting recognition and perhaps earning a bigger bull's-eye. The committee ranked Michigan State at No. 3, and Mucklow is considering the potential of the lights being too bright.
"If there can be a slip-up, it will be Michigan State," Mucklow said about the Spartans, who are three-point favorites at Purdue. "If any other number than -3, you'd probably move it. If we don't see anything, we might juice it to get some Michigan State money.
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (21-20 overall, 0-2 last week), Bill Connelly (22-22-1, 2-2-1), Tyler Fulghum (9-7, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (18-18, 2-2) and David M. Hale (11-12-1, 0-2-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 10 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Saturday's best bets
Army Black Knights at Air Force Falcons (-2.5, 37), 11:30 a.m. ET
Hale: You know the drill. Anytime two service academies get together, take the under. The under is 39-9-1 in these games dating back to 2005. Does Vegas know this too? Of course. And at some point, the odds makers will simply say, "Screw it!" and set the line at 3. Until then, however, we're sticking with the plan.
If you're looking for a little extra excitement, though, FPI suggests Army should be a two-point favorite in this one, so we'll take the points, too, and assume the final score is Air Force 2, Army 0.
Pick: Army + 2.5, under 37
Missouri Tigers at No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-38, 59.5), Noon ET on ESPN
Fulghum: This is very simple. Missouri is the only FBS team in the country yet to cover a football game this season (0-8 ATS). Do we really think the Tigers' first cover is coming against the most dominant team in the country? I -- a Mizzou graduate -- sure don't think so. Lay it with the Bulldogs and play the under thinking Mizzou scores no more than 6-7 points.
Pick: Georgia -38, under 59.5
Liberty Flames at No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels (-9.5, 67.5), Noon ET
Hale: It's Hugh Freeze's triumphant return to Oxford, and there's ample buzz surrounding the upstart Flames playing an SEC power. You know who hates it when the attention is on someone other than himself, though? Lane Kiffin. He's the guy who is supposed to suck all the oxygen from the room before every big game. He's the guy who tells fans when to get their popcorn ready. He's the guy who has golf balls thrown at him during football games. And now America wants to talk about Hugh friggin' Freeze? Nah. We can't have that. Kiffin's going to steal this show, and he's going to have fun doing it.
Pick: Ole Miss first half -6.5
Kansas State Wildcats (-24, 56) at Kansas Jayhawks, Noon ET
Fulghum: The Jayhawks backed up their amazing near-upset of Oklahoma in Lawrence ... by promptly getting beat 55-3 at Oklahoma State. I think we know who the Jayhawks are. Betting against them has been extremely profitable this season, as they are just 1-7 ATS with an astounding -224 point differential. I'll take the
Pick: Kansas State -24
SMU Mustangs (-5.5, 70.5) at Memphis Tigers, Noon ET on ESPN2
Connelly: So we've got a couple of things working for us here. First, of the 16 games this season that have had midweek point totals of 70 or higher, only two have gone over. So simply betting under on anything 70 or higher generally works out pretty well for you. Second, while the last two SMU games have each topped 80 points, the last six Memphis games have averaged only 55.2 points. The Tigers both settle for and force quite a few field goals, and their defense hasn't really been all that bad. SP+ projects 60.1 points (SMU 31.4, Memphis 28.7), and while I'd lean more toward 65-ish, there's still a cushion there.
Pick: Under 70.5
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (-3, 54) at Purdue Boilermakers, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Fortenbaugh: This is a potential flat spot for Sparty, which is off a monster comeback win over archrival Michigan on Saturday. With Michigan State now standing 8-0, you couldn't fault it for looking ahead at upcoming dates with Ohio State and Penn State while simultaneously wondering, "What if?" Meanwhile, wedged in between all those positive vibes stands little old Purdue and a defense that ranks ninth in the country in points allowed (17.1 per game). But perhaps most important of all is that Purdue currently ranks 14th in the nation in passing offense (307.1 YPG) while Michigan State's defense ranks an abysmal 127th (out of 130 schools) in passing defense. The Boilermakers stunned previously unbeaten Iowa earlier this year. Could the same fate befall the Spartans?
Pick: Purdue +3
Navy Midshipmen at No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5, 47), 3:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: This one's all about cushion. SP+ projects a 30.2-point advantage for Notre Dame. Subtract a point or two because the Irish are without a couple of injured linemen (and safety Kyle Hamilton, though that might not mean as much against an option team). Subtract a point or two because of Navy's slow tempo. Subtract a point or two because Navy has exceeded expectations semi-regularly of late. Even with those adjustments, you get something in the range of Notre Dame by 24-27. The line is -20.5, so I say go Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame -20.5
No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (-4.5, 50), 3:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: This is a tough spot for Bo Nix and Auburn following a big prime-time win over Ole Miss and now having to travel to Kyle Field a week later to take on a Texas A&M squad that is well rested thanks to a bye week. Jimbo Fisher's squad brings an elite defense to this matchup that currently ranks third in the country in scoring (16.1 PPG) and 11th in opponent yards per play. The early money moved this total from 52.5 to as low as 49 at some shops at the time of this writing. Note that the under is 9-2 in Auburn's last 11 conference showdowns and 9-3 in Texas A&M's last 12 games when coming off a bye.
Pick: Under 50
Utah State Aggies (-18.5, 71) at New Mexico State Aggies, 4 p.m. ET
Connelly: As referenced with SMU-Memphis, betting the under on anything 70 and above is usually a solid play. Plus, only one of the last five Utah State games has topped 54 points. The last two NMSU games have gotten wild and topped 80, but while USU's defense isn't amazing, it should be good enough to keep the total tamped down a bit. SP+ projects exactly 60 points (USU 37.0, NMSU 23.0), so you've got some room to work with, even though Utah State is tempo-heavy.
Pick: Under 71
Tennessee Volunteers at No. 18 Kentucky Wildcats (-1, 57), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Connelly: Tennessee played like a top-20-level team for each of its last four games before a Week 9 bye. The Volunteers walloped bad Missouri and South Carolina teams, nearly beat a top-15 Ole Miss in a classic, and had Alabama on the ropes deep into the second half before a late Tide flurry.
Meanwhile, Kentucky has scored more than 20 points just once in its last five games. The boost the Wildcats got from a new offensive coordinator and key transfers (QB Will Levis, WR Wan'Dale Robinson) seems to have worn off, and while the Wildcats' defense is still solid, Tennessee has been good enough to win this one straight up. Add that to the fact that Road Team +1 is a generally favorable line (even if it didn't work out for SMU +1 at Houston last week), and you've got enough to trust the Vols. If it's possible to
Pick: Tennessee +1
No. 22 Iowa Hawkeyes (-12, 40.5) at Northwestern Wildcats, 7 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Northwestern has a pitiful offense, and I am having a hard time envisioning how it scores double digits against Iowa. I realize the Hawkeyes have come back to earth and lost two straight games, but the Wildcats are so limited. Kirk Ferentz should have his guys ready to rock and grind out a comfortable win. I realize Pat Fitzgerald historically has performed well in the underdog role, but this team is beneath his usual standard. He's 1-3 ATS as a 'dog this season, and Northwestern has beaten only Rutgers, Ohio and Indiana State outright. Iowa is a much superior team.
Pick: Iowa -12
No. 4 Oregon Ducks (-7, 51) at Washington Huskies, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Fortenbaugh: First and foremost, keep your eye on the weather for this Pac-12 showdown because the forecast for Seattle at the time of this writing called for showers with winds in the neighborhood of 16 mph. That's good news for a Washington defense that enters Saturday allowing fewer than 20 points per game while ranking 23rd in the country in opponent yards per play. Speaking of the Huskies, take note that they aren't exactly moving at the speed of light on offense, as evidenced by the fact that the program currently ranks 92nd in plays per game. It's also worth noting that the under has cashed in 13 of Washington's last 16 contests.
Pick: Under 51
Clemson Tigers (-4, 46.5) at Louisville Cardinals, 7:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: All right, time to put my money where SP+'s mouth is again. SP+ continues to trust Clemson more than either the books or eyeballs do -- elite defense, recent history and solid recruiting rankings conspire to make it think the Tigers are going to turn it on and play like a top-10 team any minute now -- and it therefore has come up short with a majority of Clemson projections. The Tigers did earn a push last week (or a win if you nabbed Clemson -9.5) thanks to a last-second defensive score, but that offset an FSU defensive score earlier in the game.
The Clemson offense should have success on the ground against an iffy Louisville defense, and the Cardinals just lost another starter (cornerback Kei'Trel Clark) to a season-ending injury. Louisville has only beaten a collapsing Boston College in the last month, and if there's any worthwhile trend associated with this game, I think it favors Clemson.
Pick: Clemson -4
Virginia Tech Hokies (-3, 47) at Boston College Eagles, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Hale: The Hokies' offense has been a massive disappointment this season, but this is a matchup with plenty of advantages. QB Braxton Burmeister has been awful when pressured in 2021 -- 29.5% completions (126th out of 128 qualified QBs), 0.51 yards-per-dropback (126th) and a 3.3 raw QBR (110th) -- but when he has had a clean pocket, he has held his own. Boston College's defense ranks 125th nationally in pressure rate and is last in the ACC in sacks. The Virginia Tech ground game has been a mess, too. The O-line has been disappointing, but the backs have also done almost nothing after first contact. But the Eagles also rank 103rd in yards-per-rush allowed, allowing 230 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games. Then there's the BC offense, which has amassed just 40 points during a four-game losing streak. It's a gift to Virginia Tech's defense.
The Hokies haven't been what their fans wanted this season, but this is still a decent team. BC, on the other hand, has fallen apart without QB Phil Jurkovec. It would be a shocker if the Eagles kept this one close.
Pick: Virginia Tech -3
USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils (-8.5, 60), 10:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Both teams have underachieved but I think ASU has a better chance to bounce back and cover. USC is in a rut and they are in jeopardy of getting rolled in this situation. The Trojans just lost star wide receiver Drake London to injury and barely beat 0-8 Arizona. Meanwhile, Arizona State is coming back-to-back losses and I think Herm Edwards can push the right buttons to get them on track. I also expect the Sun Devils to score at will against this mediocre USC defense.
Pick: Arizona State -8.5 and ASU team total over 34.5 points
No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-7.5, 45.5), 11:00 p.m. ET
Kezirian: This is a situational play against San Diego State. First, the Aztecs just suffered their first loss and we have routinely seen teams unravel in these situations. They needed to run the table to have a truly special season. Additionally, Hawai'i is a difficult road trip for all schools and the Rainbow Warriors thrive in the home underdog role. They're already 2-0 ATS as the home 'dog and I like them here.
Pick: Hawai'i +7.5