On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff selection committee unveiled its first official rankings of the 2021 season. For all the emotion and campaigning and complaints -- of which I logged many -- we now know what the landscape is moving forward, whether we like it or not. So now that the order is set, let's take a look at the current CFP hierarchy, with a bit of a gambling bent.
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
Win percentage against the spread: 75.0% (6-2)
Average performance against the spread: +12.0 PPG (first)
Percentage of games going over: 37.5% (3-5)
Average performance against over/under: -3.8 PPG (96th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +13.8 PPG (first)
Last four games: 4-0 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: Second overall, eighth on offense, first on defense, 33rd on special teams
Biggest strength to date: Best defense in the country. The perfect combination of blue-chip recruiting, player development, aggression up front, big-play prevention in the back and gang tackling.
Biggest weakness to date: Red zone conservatism. They run the ball a ton and control the field beautifully, but if they haven't scored via big play (and their run game doesn't make many), they can bog down and settle for field goals. Hence the proclivity toward unders.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: Missouri (+29.1 projected scoring margin, 95% win probability), at Tennessee (+12.6, 77%), Charleston Southern (+48.1, 100%), at Georgia Tech (+21.1, 89%).
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Win percentage against the spread: 71.4% (5-2)
Average performance against the spread: +1.6 PPG (52nd)
Percentage of games going over: 50.0% (3-3-1)
Average performance against over/under: +4.2 PPG (19th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +6.0 PPG (25th)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: Third overall, third on offense, 10th on defense, 22nd on special teams
Biggest strength to date: Lots of well-utilized talent. The Tide are the only team besides Georgia to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive SP+. They make big plays and prevent them, they force three-and-outs and avoid them, they average 3.6 points per drive and allow 1.6. They aren't as good as last year's Bama team, but that's an almost impossible bar to clear.
Biggest weakness to date: An overreliance on third downs. Being great on third downs but facing too many of them is not the worst weakness in the world to have, but because of a lack of run explosiveness, the Bama offense is faced with plenty of third downs, and it gives opponents a chance to get off the field (it also leads to a few too many red zone field goals).
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: LSU (+22.6 projected scoring margin, 91% win probability), NMSU (+53.1, 100%), Arkansas (+17.9, 85%), at Auburn (+8.7, 69%).
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (8-0)
Win percentage against the spread: 75.0% (6-2)
Average performance against the spread: +9.6 PPG (third)
Percentage of games going over: 50.0% (4-4)
Average performance against over/under: +2.0 PPG (34th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +7.7 PPG (15th)
Last four games: 4-0 straight up, 4-0 ATS
SP+ rankings: 14th overall, 42nd on offense, 12th on defense, 87th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: Offensive explosiveness. Running back Kenneth Walker III is averaging 6.8 yards per carry, and leading receivers Jalen Nailor and Jayden Reed are averaging 19.2 yards per catch.
Biggest weakness to date: The defense bends a lot (and can't get off the field). MSU prevents chunk plays but ranks just 63rd in success rate allowed and 103rd in three-and-out percentage. Combined with an offense inclined toward quick drives, the defense is facing 83.3 snaps per game, most in the country.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at Purdue (+5.9 projected margin, 63% win probability), Maryland (+9.3, 70%), at Ohio State (-16.7, 17%), Penn State (+0.5, 51%)
No. 4 Oregon Ducks (7-1)
Win percentage against the spread: 25.0% (2-6)
Average performance against the spread: -2.3 PPG (86th)
Percentage of games going over: 50.0% (4-4)
Average performance against over/under: +1.5 PPG (42nd)
Average performance against SP+ projection: -2.0 PPG (87th)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 1-3 ATS
SP+ rankings: 23rd overall, 13th on offense, 44th on defense, sixth on special teams
Biggest strength to date: It's really hard to knock them off schedule. The Oregon offense ranks eighth in success rate, 11th in points per drive and 16th in yards per drive. Running back Travis Dye is thriving in the absence of the injured CJ Verdell, and the short passing game constantly moves the chains.
Biggest weakness to date: The defense is less than the sum of its parts. They have Kayvon Thibodeaux but rank 104th in sack rate. They have active and exciting pieces everywhere you look but rank 77th in success rate allowed and 64th in points per drive allowed. It keeps lesser opponents in games far longer than they should be at times.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at Washington (+5.7 projected scoring margin, 63% win probability), Washington State (+13.0, 77%), at Utah (-0.7, 48%), Oregon State (+11.5, 75%).
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
Win percentage against the spread: 56.3% (4-3-1)
Average performance against the spread: +5.9 PPG (14th)
Percentage of games going over: 62.5% (5-3)
Average performance against over/under: +3.6 PPG (26th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +8.1 PPG (13th)
Last four games: 4-0 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: First overall, first on offense, 15th on defense, first on special teams
Biggest strength to date: The best offense in the country. It says a lot that the general vibe following the Buckeyes' 33-24 win over Penn State on Saturday was one of disappointment for the offense. Against the No. 5 defense, per SP+, they managed only 6.9 yards per play and 466 total yards.
Biggest weakness to date: The defense still isn't 100% trustworthy. They have allowed only 14.7 points per game since the 35-28 loss to Oregon, but they did get hit for 27 first downs and 24 points by a one-dimensional Penn State offense. There are better offenses on the schedule ahead.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at Nebraska (+13.8 projected margin, 79% win probability), Purdue (+25.1, 93%), Michigan State (+16.7, 83%), at Michigan (+6.6, 65%).
No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)
Win percentage against the spread: 62.5% (5-3)
Average performance against the spread: +4.0 PPG (24th)
Percentage of games going over: 50.0% (4-4)
Average performance against over/under: +1.7 PPG (38th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +5.4 PPG (34th)
Last four games: 4-0 straight up, 2-2 ATS
SP+ rankings: 10th overall, 30th on offense, ninth on defense, 82nd on special teams
Biggest strength to date: A beautifully well-rounded defense. The Bearcats rank fifth in success rate allowed, 13th in explosive play rate allowed, seventh in yards allowed per drive and third in points allowed per drive. They're stingy, aggressive and consistent.
Biggest weakness to date: The offense stalls out. Cincy averages 3.0 points per drive (14th in FBS), but the Bearcats go three-and-out 33% of the time (99th). They fall into lulls, often early in games, and while they eventually snap out of it and thrive, that could easily backfire at some point.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: Tulsa (+21.2 projected scoring margin, 89% win probability), at USF (+26.6, 94%), SMU (+13.2, 78%), at East Carolina (+19.3, 87%).
No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (7-1)
Win percentage against the spread: 75.0% (6-2)
Average performance against the spread: +7.6 PPG (seventh)
Percentage of games going over: 50.0% (4-4)
Average performance against over/under: +2.6 PPG (31st)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +5.6 PPG (32nd)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: Fifth overall, 18th on offense, eighth on defense, third on special teams
Biggest strength to date: Defensive efficiency. The Wolverines rank 11th in points per drive allowed, 10th in three-and-out percentage and 28th in success rate. Even in the loss to Michigan State, they forced five punts (three three-and-outs) and picked off two passes.
Biggest weakness to date: Finishing drives. Their offense ranks 81st in goal-to-go touchdown rate, and their defense ranks 58th. It has been an issue all year, and it cost them on Saturday in East Lansing -- they settled for four field goals and allowed touchdowns on all five of MSU's scoring opportunities. They created more chances and lost anyway.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: Indiana (+17.9 projected scoring margin, 85% win probability), at Penn State (+0.6, 52%), at Maryland (+9.4, 71%), Ohio State (-6.6, 35%).
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (9-0)
Win percentage against the spread: 44.4% (4-5)
Average performance against the spread: -4.7 PPG (104th)
Percentage of games going over: 66.7% (6-3)
Average performance against over/under: +3.9 PPG (21st)
Average performance against SP+ projection: -3.1 PPG (94th)
Last four games: 4-0 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: Eighth overall, second on offense, 53rd on defense, seventh on special teams
Biggest strength to date: Extreme offensive efficiency. Even when quarterback Spencer Rattler was supposedly struggling behind center, the Sooners stayed ahead of the chains and moved the ball consistently. With Caleb Williams having taken over as QB No. 1, the big plays have begun to return, too.
Biggest weakness to date: A dreadful pass defense. The pass rush is far less scary than it was last year (81st in sack rate), and a banged-up secondary has allowed a 177.3 passer rating over the past five games, the equivalent of turning every Big 12 QB into Bryce Young. The win over Texas Tech was a step in the right direction, at least, and good health could solve some issues. But there's a reason four of their past five games have hit the over.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at Baylor (+1.4 projected margin, 53% win probability), Iowa State (+5.9, 63%), at Oklahoma State (+4.4, 60%).
No. 9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-0)
Win percentage against the spread: 56.3% (4-3-1)
Average performance against the spread: +5.9 PPG (14th)
Percentage of games going over: 37.5% (3-5)
Average performance against over/under: +4.6 PPG (16th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +9.6 PPG (fifth)
Last four games: 4-0 straight up, 2-2 ATS
SP+ rankings: 28th overall, 10th on offense, 61st on defense, 34th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: An offense that scores and scores. Quarterback Sam Hartman is up to third in Total QBR, and his top two receivers, Jaquarii Roberson and A.T. Perry, average 18.4 yards per catch between them. The run game is good enough when RPO reads dictate a handoff. This offense is unique and deadly.
Biggest weakness to date: They have to play defense, too. After promising early play, the Demon Deacons allowed 127 points over a three-game stretch against Louisville, Syracuse and Army. You can run the ball all day on them, and the pass defense isn't amazing, either. Giving up seven to Duke on Saturday was good, but better offenses await.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at North Carolina (-4.1 projected scoring margin, 41% win probability), NC State (+1.5, 54%), at Clemson (-11.4, 26%), at Boston College (+5.4, 62%)
No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
Win percentage against the spread: 62.5% (5-3)
Average performance against the spread: +4.0 PPG (24th)
Percentage of games going over: 62.5% (5-3)
Average performance against over/under: +3.4 PPG (27th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +4.1 PPG (41st)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: 13th overall, 21st on offense, 18th on defense, 69th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: Great defense at the beginning and end of drives. Against a tough schedule to date, the Irish rank 24th in three-and-out percentage and 25th in goal-to-go TD rate allowed. You can move the ball on them, but they make some random quick stops, and they hold you to field goals when you drive.
Biggest weakness to date: They're off schedule way too much. Kyren Williams' firepower was evident against North Carolina on Saturday -- in particular, his downright nasty 91-yard TD run -- and Kevin Austin Jr. and Avery Davis average 15.2 yards per catch between them. But the Irish rank 85th in success rate and 88th in three-and-out rate.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: Navy (+30.2 projected scoring margin, 96% win probability), at Virginia (+2.8, 57%), Georgia Tech (+13.1, 78%), at Stanford (+15.7, 82%).
No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1)
Win percentage against the spread: 75.0% (6-2)
Average performance against the spread: +2.7 PPG (43rd)
Percentage of games going over: 31.3% (2-5-1)
Average performance against over/under: -4.8 PPG (105th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +6.3 PPG (22nd)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 4-0 ATS
SP+ rankings: 31st overall, 69th on offense, 11th on defense, 80th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: Ultra-aggressive defense. They rank sixth in points allowed per drive, fifth in yards allowed per drive and fourth in three-and-out percentage. They're great against the run and pressure your passer without blitzing. They haven't allowed over 24 points in a game all season.
Biggest weakness to date: The offense keeps opponents in games. The Cowboys have settled in on a run-first, run-second identity to minimize mistakes and give the defense decent field position, but they're 78th in both success rate and points per drive and 69th in offensive SP+.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at West Virginia (+2.4 projected scoring margin, 55% win probability), TCU (+9.0, 70%), at Texas Tech (+4.8, 61%), Oklahoma (-4.4, 40%).
No. 12 Baylor Bears (7-1)
Win percentage against the spread: 75.0% (6-2)
Average performance against the spread: +8.9 PPG (fourth)
Percentage of games going over: 62.5% (5-3)
Average performance against over/under: +5.9 PPG (10th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +7.1 PPG (17th)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: 19th overall, 44th on offense, 14th on defense, 29th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: A well-rounded attack. The Bears play in a solid defensive conference but still rank ninth in success rate (13th rushing, 15th passing), ninth in explosive play rate, fifth in goal-to-go TD rate and 17th in points per drive. (Why do they rank 44th in offensive SP+? Because SP+ uses priors, and they're still getting dragged down by ranking 91st on offense last year. It's the same as Clemson getting propped up by priors, but in reverse.)
Biggest weakness to date: Too many big plays allowed. They're 65th in explosive play rate allowed, and some poor tackling -- they're 74th in tackle success rate -- has produced quite a few glitches in run defense.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at TCU (+6.9 projected scoring margin, 66% win probability), Oklahoma (-1.4, 47%), at Kansas State (+2.9, 57%), Texas Tech (+12.7, 77%).
No. 13 Auburn Tigers (6-2)
Win percentage against the spread: 62.5% (5-3)
Average performance against the spread: +3.6 PPG
Percentage of games going over: 50.5% (4-4)
Average performance against over/under: -1.6 PPG (70th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +3.4 PPG (47th)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS
P+ rankings: 15th overall, 34th on offense, 16th on defense, 19th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: They're going to run the ball better than you. Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter are averaging 24 carries and 150 yards per game, and they average a 46% rushing success rate while holding opponents to 38%. You have to take to the air to beat them (unless you're Georgia).
Biggest weakness to date: You can beat them through the air. Auburn ranks 106th in passing success rate allowed and 112th in completion rate allowed. The Tigers don't allow a ton of big plays, but in losses to Penn State and Georgia they allowed 43-for-54 passing for 533 yards, four touchdowns and an interception.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: at Texas A&M (-6.8 projected scoring margin, 35% win probability), Mississippi State (+6.4, 64%), at South Carolina (+12.9, 77%), Alabama (-8.7, 31%).
No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (6-2)
Win percentage against the spread: 62.5% (5-3)
Average performance against the spread: +0.9 PPG (61st)
Percentage of games going over: 37.5% (3-5)
Average performance against over/under: -6.0 PPG (110th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: -1.9 PPG (84th)
Last four games: 3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: Seventh overall, 24th on offense, seventh on defense, 17th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: The defense gives you nothing easy. The Aggies rank sixth in points allowed per drive and 18th in success rate allowed. They control the trenches, pressure the passer without blitzing and get hands on passes from sideline to sideline.
Biggest weakness to date: Zach Calzada isn't always the Zach Calzada we saw against Alabama. He played the game of his life in the upset of the Crimson Tide but has reverted to form since, completing just 25 of 49 passes with two interceptions (and four touchdowns) against Missouri and South Carolina. With no word on if or when original starter Haynes King might return, it appears Calzada's the guy, for better or (often) worse.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: Auburn (+6.8 projected scoring margin, 65% win probability), at Ole Miss (+3.2, 57%), Prairie View A&M (+42.7, 99%), at LSU (+10.7, 73%).
No. 15 BYU Cougars (7-2)
Win percentage against the spread: 44.4% (4-5)
Average performance against the spread: +0.4 PPG (67th)
Percentage of games going over: 33.3% (3-6)
Average performance against over/under: -0.7 PPG (58th)
Average performance against SP+ projection: +0.0 PPG (74th)
Last four games: 2-2 straight up, 3-1 ATS
SP+ rankings: 54th overall, 26th on offense, 77th on defense, 116th on special teams
Biggest strength to date: A versatile and exciting offense. BYU throws a lot on running downs, runs a lot on passing downs, stays ahead of the chains (11th in success rate) and makes big plays (ninth in explosive play rate). Whatever you aren't good at defending, the Cougars can exploit.
Biggest weakness to date: A bend-but-don't-break defense that bends too much. The Cougars don't allow a ton in the big-play department, but they are far too giving -- they rank 116th in success rate allowed and 115th in yards allowed per drive. They don't tackle well enough to contain good offenses.
SP+ projections for remaining regular-season games: Idaho State (+29.2 projected margin, 95% win probability), at Georgia Southern (+17.5, 84%), at USC (-3.0, 43%)