The 2021-22 NBA season is upon us with a more normal October-June schedule. The Milwaukee Bucks are the defending NBA champions after knocking off the Phoenix Suns in six games in July. Can they repeat? Are the Warriors back now that they are healthy?
Betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks, Eric Moody and Tyler Fulghum, along with NBA senior writer André Snellings, give us their picks for the NBA title, win totals and season-long awards.
For a list of all preseason odds, click here.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Oct. 17.
Title picks
Milwaukee Bucks to win NBA championship (8-1)
Snellings: Despite being the defending champions, the Bucks have only the third-best odds to win this season's championship, behind the Nets (+230) and Lakers (+400) and just ahead of the Warriors (+1000). The Bucks are the clear value pick among this group, for multiple reasons.
Part of it is some of the turmoil and instability on the other top teams, with the Nets dealing with high-profile player uncertainty, the Lakers trying to incorporate 11 new players on the oldest roster in the league and the Warriors relying on their 30-something core to get fully healthy and remain that way for an extended playoff run. But more of it is the Bucks themselves. Over the past three seasons, they've had solidly the best record and scoring margin in the NBA with the same core players. That core is still young, with Giannis Antetokounmpo only 26 years old and Khris Middleton just hitting 30. Last season's new impact addition, Jrue Holiday, is now fully acclimated to the team and they know how to play together to maximum effect. Plus, having won a championship, the boulder-sized stress that had weighed them down in previous postseasons is gone. I expect this Bucks team to have a serious post-championship bump that allows them to play loose and easy, and if they stay healthy they will be a problem for any team that seeks to dethrone them.
Golden State Warriors to win NBA championship (10-1)
Moody: Some bettors may gravitate toward the Nets as the next NBA champions, but the Warriors can't be forgotten about. The team will go as far as two-time MVP Stephen Curry takes them, and we can't forget how remarkable Curry was last season, leading the NBA in scoring and finishing with the fourth-highest player efficiency rating (33.4). The veteran point guard is still in his physical prime and has been surrounded with a strong supporting cast to make another push to the championship. Veterans Otto Porter Jr., Andre Iguodala and Nemanja Bjelica add quality depth. Rookie lottery picks Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody could be factors as well, and all of these players should fit in nicely with the others on the Warriors' roster. And let's not forget about Klay Thompson and James Wiseman. Thompson is shooting for returning around Christmas, and if that happens he has a chance to be a difference-maker for the Warriors as they approach the playoffs. The addition of Dejan Milojevic to Golden State's coaching staff has not been publicized enough. The Serbian native is in charge of Wiseman's development plan and has an impressive résumé of players whom he has developed (the most notable is Nikola Jokic). The Warriors could use one of their bigs to step up after having to play small ball quite a bit last season, and if Wiseman -- the No. 2 overall pick in 2020 -- improves in his second season, that will help the Warriors' championship chances tremendously.
Denver Nuggets to win Western Conference (10-1)
Snellings: I agree with Caesars that the Lakers (+180) are the most likely team to come out of the West, but the team has a lot of risk factors to deal with: age, health, chemistry and fit all could leave the door open for another team to sneak in. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have an awful lot in their favor for a team given just the sixth-best odds in the conference. They were in the conference finals two seasons ago and were playing even better last season before starting point guard Jamal Murray got injured. Nikola Jokic is the defending MVP, and is still only 26 years old. The Nuggets have dramatically upgraded their frontcourt from that conference finalist team of two seasons ago, with the trade deadline addition of Aaron Gordon and young Michael Porter Jr. developing into a star before our eyes. And there's a very good chance that Murray is able to return to game action before the season ends, which would give them their fully loaded roster by the postseason. A fully stocked Nuggets squad has a solid chance to defeat any team in the West, and is good value at 10-1.
Awards
Michael Porter Jr. to lead the league in scoring (250-1)
Fulghum: This is outrageous preseason value on one of the four to five most gifted scorers in the NBA today. Porter Jr. is the favorite to win Most Improved Player (+1000). After securing a max extension and growing last season as a pro with Jamal Murray out, MPJ is primed to break out in a massive way in his third season. The closest replica to Kevin Durant in the NBA, Porter is a 6-foot-10 bucket getter. This preseason, he averaged 19.5 PPG (in just 24.0 MPG) on shooting splits of .517/.538/.667 (gotta work on those free throws, Mike). What's even more impressive about that 53.8% clip from downtown is that they came on 6.5 attempts per game. This is not a fluke, either. MPJ shot 42.2% from 3 as a rookie, then bumped that up to 44.5% as a sophomore. The shooting stroke is one of the best in the universe, and he finally might get the usage and minutes from Michael Malone required to lead the league in scoring. Bottom line, +25000 is outrageously mispriced value for the bettor.
Cade Cunningham to win NBA Rookie of the Year Award (+260)
Moody: The Detroit Pistons apparently turned down multiple offers before selecting Cunningham first overall, and are clearly positioning the rookie to be the face of their franchise. It's easy to see why; Cunningham was superb in his lone season at Oklahoma State. The 6-8, 220-pound guard amassed 20.1 points, 2.3 3-pointers, 6.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks in 35 minutes per game. Some may be concerned about Cunningham's turnovers per game in college, but he played well during the Summer League and should continue to easily acclimate to the NBA game. Cunningham has little competition with the Pistons and is bigger and more powerful than LaMelo Ball. With Cunningham's defensive versatility, he's my favorite to win Rookie of the Year.
Damian Lillard to win regular-season scoring title (7-1) and regular-season made 3-pointers leader (4-1)
Moody: Lillard averaged 28.8 points per game with a 45.1 FG% last season, with three games in which he went off for 60 or more points. He also made 39.1% of his 3-pointers. The only other player over the past four seasons who has made more 3-pointers than Lillard (1,009) is James Harden (1,063). The Portland Trail Blazers have lost depth this offseason due to the departures of Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr. and Derrick Jones, which also puts more on Lillard.
Donovan Mitchell to win regular-season scoring title (30-1)
Snellings: In my projections, Bradley Beal is the most likely to win the scoring title at a projected 33.6 PPG. But he's also the favorite in Vegas at +300, which isn't much value. However, I also project Mitchell to finish in the top 5 in the NBA in scoring, and his odds are long enough to be worth considering. Mitchell's scoring average has increased in every season of his career, and increased by 2.4 PPG last season even though he played fewer minutes than the season before. Mitchell is 25 years old, building toward his NBA athletic peak with enough experience that the game has completely slowed down for him by now. Also, consider that in the last two postseasons combined, Mitchell has averaged a whopping 33.9 PPG that, if he could match in the regular season, would be higher than my projections for Beal. All told, Mitchell is a good longer-shot candidate who has a legitimate chance to claim the prize.
Draymond Green to win regular-season assist title (40-1)
Snellings: In my projections, James Harden is the most likely to win the assists title at a projected 9.5 APG. But he's also one of the favorites in Vegas at +150. Vegas has Russell Westbrook, who has led the NBA in assists per game in three of the past four seasons, as the outright favorite at +110. However, I struggle to see either Westbrook or LeBron James, who led the league in assists in 2019-20, leading the league in assists in a season when they're on the same team. They will have to share the playmaking duties too much for that. Green, on the other hand, finished third in the NBA with 8.9 APG last season, and he could easily top that this season. The Warriors are full of finishers, and with Klay Thompson expected back at some point this season and Jordan Poole sizzling the nets from deep this preseason, those finishers should be even better this season. Green has been the de facto point guard on the Warriors for years, but last season he really leaned into it with Stephen Curry playing more off the ball. And it worked, resulting in Curry leading the league in scoring. Green could very well flirt with or even surpass double-digit assists this season, and at 40-1 odds this is a long shot bet with a real chance to pay out.
James Harden to win MVP (25-1)
Snellings: Harden's odds are way too low, likely because teammate Kevin Durant (+700) has the third-best odds on the board. But consider this: Durant hasn't finished in the top three in the MVP vote since he won it back in 2014. Durant also still has major injury question marks as he continues his return from a devastating Achilles tear in the 2019 playoffs. He played in only 35 of 72 regular-season games last season, giving him 35 total since 2018-19. Harden, on the other hand, has finished in the top three in the MVP vote five times in the past seven seasons. Also, last season Harden was the member of the Nets' Big Three to lead the team in real plus-minus (RPM), indicating he may have been having the biggest impact. Finally, with the uncertainty surrounding Kyrie Irving's availability, Harden may be asked to consistently carry the primary playmaking role on a Nets team expected to have one of the best records in the NBA. He should have much better than the 11th-best chance to win the MVP, and there is solid value in his 25-1 odds.
Kezirian: I realize Brooklyn has been a bit of a circus lately but Harden is someone who can thrive in this situation. Durant is obviously the main scorer but in this offense, Harden is a guy who can routinely post triple-doubles, especially if Kyrie Irving does not return to the Nets. Brooklyn has some solid players surrounding their two All-Stars and that plays well into Harden's skillset.
Win totals
New York Knicks under 43.5 wins
Fortenbaugh: Everybody and their grandma loves the New York Knicks this season. How could you not? Head coach Tom Thibodeau took a down-on-its-luck, 21-win club from the 2019-20 season and transformed it overnight into a smashing success, complete with the franchise's first winning record and playoff appearance since the 2012-13 campaign. But how much of what we saw last season is capable of being repeated this season? Do we see the Knicks ranking first in both opponent 3-point percentage (.337) and field goal percentage (.440) again this year? What about Derrick Rose? Will the 34-year-old post another career high in effective field goal percentage (.530)? And then there's Julius Randle and his breakout 24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 6.0 APG slash line, which led to the seven-year veteran's first All-Star appearance. Regression can be cruel, and the Knickerbockers will know that all too well this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves over 33.5 wins
Fortenbaugh: It's easy to dismiss a Timberwolves outfit that hasn't won a playoff series since 2004 and has qualified for just one postseason appearance over the past 17 years. But look close enough and you're likely to find a glimmer of hope that this upcoming campaign could be different. For starters, let's explore the transformation this club underwent transitioning from head coach Ryan Saunders to Chris Finch. In 31 games under Saunders last season, Minnesota went 7-24 with an offensive rating of 105.7 (28th) and an effective field goal percentage of 50.7 (26th). Now, compare that with the 41 games played under Finch in which the club posted a mark of 16-25 to go along with its offensive rating of 111.9 (17th) and effective field goal percentage of 53.0 (19th). Year 2 of Anthony Edwards and more than just 42 appearances from D'Angelo Russell could have this team contending for a playoff spot.
Orlando Magic under 22.5 wins
Kezirian: In short, Markelle Fultz might be their best player. They do have nice building blocks for the future with Jonathan Isaac, Mo Bamba and rookie Jalen Suggs, but this is going to be a work in progress. The NBA is no longer littered with tanking teams so the potential wins will be few and far between. This is a team that should struggle to reach 20 wins.
Houston Rockets under 26.5 wins
Kezirian: This will be a fun team that will certainly have some eye-opening nights but that doesn't necessarily translate into wins. The Rockets are filled with 19- and 20-year-olds to go alongside Christian Wood, but ultimately it's going to take some time to put it all together for wins. Houston finished with the NBA's worst record last year at 17-55, and I do not see a 10-win improvement.
Philadelphia 76ers over 50.5 wins
Fulghum: The 76ers were the No. 1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference last season. They had the best home record in the East (29-7) and won 68.1% of their games, which equates to 55.8 over the course of an 82-game season. Was it disappointing that they got bounced in the second round of the playoffs? Of course. Does that make them an inferior regular-season team? No, it does not. Now that it appears Ben Simmons will end up playing for the 76ers again this season, this number is too low for a team with that kind of talent.
Heat over 48.5 wins (-110); Heat win Southeast Division (-115)
Marks: I love the addition of Kyle Lowry, giving Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo a legit PG to open up their offense. Add to that the solid supporting cast (Markieff Morris, P.J. Tucker and Victor Oladipo) and one of the best coaches in the NBA in Erik Spoelstra, and I expect the Heat to have a bounce-back season.
Golden State Warriors over 48.5 wins; Stephen Curry most 3-pointers (-170); Curry wins MVP (+750)
Marks: The Warriors will be a force in the West with the expected return of Klay Thompson around Christmas, helping them get back to their Warrior ways. They added better defenders to their roster, and if they were still healthy, they could compete with the Lakers to represent the West. Curry will once again lead the league in 3s; he shot 42% from beyond the arc last season, and with Klay helping with spacing ... watch out for the season of Curry!