Intro by Doug Kezirian
On the heels of their first losing weekend this NFL season, sportsbooks are bracing for what could be another winning weekend for the betting public. Eight of the 13 remaining games feature road favorites, and only one of those eight favorites is laying more than 6.5 points.
"We usually just need one thing to unscramble the puzzle. That's all. If you get that, then you're usually okay, even if some of the other stuff gets there. But when it all gets there, that's when you're in deep doo-doo," DraftKings sportsbook director John Avello told ESPN. "It was Christmas last week."
The public will likely flock to the road favorites, backing what they perceive as the better team laying a short number. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites in Washington and figure to be used in several teasers and money line parlays. And some bettors have already opened up teasers and money-line parlays with Tampa Bay, which defeated Philadelphia, 28-22 to begin Week 6.
Additionally, the Dallas Cowboys are the only undefeated team against the spread and are laying 3.5 points in New England. Caesars Sportsbook shared that Dallas represents 93% of this game's tickets. However, the Patriots are 15-4 as a home underdog under Bill Belichick, including the Oct. 3 reunion with Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (9-9-2, 2-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (6-9, 1-3), Joe Fortenbaugh (22-8-1, 4-1) and Anita Marks (101-59, 19-11), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (20-11, 13-6), ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder (22-25, 4-3) and Mackenzie Kraemer (1-6, 0-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (12-8-1, 1-3) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (18-11, 2-5) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 6 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
Jump to: Dolphins-Jaguars | Packers-Bears | Bengals-Lions | Texans-Colts | Rams-Giants | Chiefs-Washington | Vikings-Panthers | Chargers-Ravens | Cardinals-Browns | Raiders-Broncos | Cowboys-Patriots | Seahawks-Steelers
8:20 p.m. ET game
Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 42.5)
Schatz: Let's be honest, a bet on Ben Roethlisberger in this game is about the Seattle defense, not about Roethlisberger himself. Big Ben has two games this year over 256 passing yards, although he also came close to it with 253 against Denver in Week 5. Meanwhile, the Seattle defense has given up over 300 passing yards in four straight games. Seattle ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per drive. With a deep receiving corps, the absence of JuJu Smith-Schuster shouldn't affect Roethlisberger's passing totals. Just find whoever Jamal Adams is covering and throw to them.
Pick: Roethlisberger over 256.5 passing yards (-115)
Walder: DK Metcalf has earned 56.5 expected receiving yards per game, based on NFL Next Gen Stats information, on his targets this season. If Russell Wilson were his quarterback I wouldn't blink an eye at this line -- or one even a little higher -- because Wilson consistently produces strong completion percentage over expectation numbers. He simply completes more passes than an average QB, which is why it's reasonable to expect a serious drop-off with Geno Smith at the helm Sunday.
If a below average quarterback in Smith, plus a good receiver in Metcalf equates to an average completion percentage of expectation, then the target opportunity Metcalf has had this year wouldn't justify this line.
Pick: Metcalf under 64.5 receiving yards (-115)
4 p.m. ET games
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-3, 49.5)
Kezirian: I am excited to see Arizona against this opponent. The Browns have an elite rushing attack that leads the league in yards per game. Arizona also allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game, so it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals approach this game plan, especially with the uncertain status of Chandler Jones. At the end of the day, I trust the Browns to rack up the rushing yards and points, and I do not want to have to worry about Kyler Murray.
Pick: Browns team total over 26.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 44)
Fortenbaugh: The Raiders are a small handful of snaps away from a 1-4 record. As it stands, the Silver & Black are currently 3-2, but take note that the team has lost back-to-back games while generating a grand total of just 23 points and now boasts a negative score differential of -7 on the season. The real story here is the focus of the team after everything that has taken place this past week surrounding former head coach Jon Gruden's resignation. We saw a similar situation in Jacksonville last week when the Jaguars were forced to deal with head coach Urban Meyer's off-the-field missteps ... and the result was an 18-point home loss to the Titans. This is an excellent "get right" spot for the Broncos.
Pick: Broncos -3.5, under 44
Moody: Courtland Sutton has totaled 19 targets and 167 receiving yards over the last two games. He also has 644 air yards (indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught). The only wide receiver with more is Davante Adams (728). Teddy Bridgewater is proactively testing defenses downfield, and Sutton should not have a problem creating separation against the Raiders' cornerbacks. One matchup in particular that it would be wise for Bridgewater to exploit is whenever Sutton is matched up against Amik Robertson.
Pick: Sutton over 63.5 receiving yards (-120)
Marks: With what the Raiders have had to deal with this week, it will be difficult to be ready for this game. The loss of Gruden and his play-calling will set this offense back. Sutton has the seventh-best target share (11 in Week 5) and fourth-best air yards in the NFL; he is due for a big day against a Raiders secondary that is weak against explosive passing plays.
Pick: Broncos -3.5, Sutton over 63.5 receiving yards (-120)
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 51) at New England Patriots
Bearman: Is there really this much confidence in Bill Belichick and this much distrust for the Cowboys? We have a 5-0 ATS team that is rolling everyone going up against a Pats team that should have lost to the Texans last week as 9-point favorites. I had this as a TD game before the line game out. The Patriots' offense is a real problem. They haven't broken 25 points yet this season and they haven't exactly played murder's row of defenses, facing the Dolphins, Texans, Saints, Jets and Bucs. Only the Saints rank in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
The Pats are 24th in DVOA on offense, 26th in total yards, 27th in rush yards, 20th in passing and 26th in points per game. That needs to improve if they are going to keep up with a Dallas offense that is second in the NFL, scoring 34 points per game and ranking second in total yards and rushing yards. The Cowboys' unbeaten ATS run will come to an end at some point, but not to the Patriots, who, by the way, are 0-3 at home this season (only cover came vs. Bucs).
Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Moody: Jakobi Meyers is averaging 9.2 targets, 6.2 receptions and 60.4 receiving yards this season. The Cowboys' defense has allowed three wide receivers to exceed 100 or more receiving yards; Chris Godwin (105 yards), DJ Moore (113) and Kadarius Toney (189) have all had huge performances against Dallas' secondary. The best way for the Patriots to get Meyers involved is via the slot. The only other receiver who has seen more slot targets than Meyers (33) this season is Cooper Kupp (35). Godwin and Toney's performances are notable because they operate primarily in the slot.
Pick: Meyers over 5.5 receptions (+110), Meyers over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Schatz: The Cowboys currently rank seventh in first-quarter DVOA, showing they do a good job of scripting their initial plays and getting the offense off the ground. So far this season, they've outscored opponents 45-24 in the first quarter. The Patriots' offense ranks just 27th in first-quarter DVOA, and opponents have outscored them 23-10 in the first quarter, with the only Patriots points coming against the lowly Jets in Week 2.
Pick: Cowboys -0.5 in the first quarter (+105)
9:30 a.m. ET game (in London)
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 47) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Schatz: These are two very bad teams, ranked No. 30 and No. 31 in our DVOA ratings. They're both below average on offense and defense. So why do I favor the over in this game? Pace. Jacksonville and Miami rank first and third, respectively, in total pace this season, i.e. seconds of game clock per play. Some of that comes from being behind in games, but these two teams are also above average in situation-neutral pace. This game goes over 47 in over 70% of our simulations.
Pick: Over 47
Moody: It's wise to evaluate rookies on a game-to-game basis in order to understand how they are improving. Trevor Lawrence completed 23 of 33 passes for 273 yards in the Jaguars' loss to the Titans in Week 5, as offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer have catered the offense to Lawrence's strengths. Miami's defense has faced Mac Jones, Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Carson Wentz and Tom Brady so far this season. That group of quarterbacks has averaged 297 passing yards per game against the Dolphins. Lawrence has a high passing floor in this game.
The run game also should excel. James Robinson rushed for 149 yards on 18 attempts against the Titans last week and has 75 or more rushing yards in three consecutive games while averaging 17 attempts per game. The Jaguars will most likely continue to feature Robinson against the Dolphins, and the battle in the trenches is fairly even between Jacksonville and Miami's offensive and defensive lines. Robinson's volume and efficiency are what make this over rushing prop attractive. The only other running back with higher yards per attempt than Robinson (5.8) is Dallas' Tony Pollard (6.4).
Pick: Lawrence over 236.5 passing yards (-115), Robinson over 75.5 rushing yards (-120)
Walder: The Jaguars and Dolphins have been the two worst teams in total efficiency, which is expected points added per play with garbage time down-weighted. The difference between them? Miami has played the hardest schedule in the league while Jacksonville has played the sixth-easiest, and Miami's starting quarterback has only played in 1.5 games. With Tua Tagovailoa now back at practice, I'm willing to wager the market is underrating the difference between these two teams.
Pick: Dolphins -3
1 p.m. ET games
Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 44) at Chicago Bears
Fortenbaugh: The Bears rank 30th in scoring, last in yards per play on offense and have topped 20 points in a game just once this season. The good news, however, is that after getting roasted for 34 points and 386 total yards of offense in Week 1 against the Rams, the Chicago defense has battened down the hatches and held the opposition to just 16.5 points per game. Both Green Bay and Chicago rank in the bottom seven in the NFL in pace, so neither team is in a hurry to get the snap off on a consistent basis.
Pick: Under 44
Moody: There has been a lot of chatter over A.J. Dillon's performance last week against the Bengals, and rightfully so, but let's not forget about Aaron Jones. He finished with 109 yards on 19 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets). Since 2019, Jones has averaged 18.8 opportunities and 98.5 total yards per game. I believe the Packers will lean heavily on its offensive line and running game against the Bears. This is a matchup that should be exploited.
It's unlikely the Bears force the Green Bay Packers into a shootout. This bodes well for Dillon as well, as Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has shown a willingness to get the second-year back more involved. Dillon has accrued 28 total touches over the last two weeks. This trend and statistical production should continue in Week 6.
Pick: Jones over 83.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115), Dillon over 50.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 47.5) at Detroit Lions
Walder: This bet burned me last week, but I'm hanging tough. Dan Campbell is sneaky aggressive on fourth down. And I'm going to bank on that not being fully priced into the lines yet. That means he'll eschew field-goal opportunities other teams might take in favor of going for it, therefore depressing our field goal expectation for the Lions.
I'm also heading back to a Ja'Marr Chase under. The rookie has been pretty awesome, don't get me wrong. But when we look at his receiving yards expectation -- based on expected air yards and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats -- we see a pretty wild story. Chase is averaging just about 49 expected yards per game, but has accrued a massive 216 receiving yards over that expectation -- over 70 more than everyone else in the league. I expect Chase to have a great career, but I wouldn't expect him to be the receiving yards over expectation leader going forward.
Pick: Lions field goals under 1.5 (-106 at FanDuel), Chase under 70.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Ja'Marr Chase has to be in the Rookie Of The Year conversation. In Week 5, he posted six catches for 159 yards and a TD. Joe Burrow and Chase have picked up where they left off at LSU, and this week he has a great matchup on a fast track.
Pick: Chase over 70.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kezirian: The Lions have demonstrated competitiveness and effort. While I think that will translate to a win or two in the near future, this is not the situation. Detroit is frisky, but Cincy outclasses the Lions on many fronts. The Bengals are 3-2 and eyeing the playoffs, while Jared Goff still struggles to read defenses.
Pick: Bengals -3.5
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-10, 43)
Fulghum: The Colts are installed as 10-point favorites in this game, so you'd think it'd be a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor on the ground. It will be. But a passing yardage prop of 245.5 is just too low for Carson Wentz in a game his team is expected to win and with a matchup as soft as Houston. Michael Pittman Jr. has emerged as a true alpha to lean on, and Taylor is a guy who is getting more work in the passing game and taking short dump-offs for big gains, inflating Carson's yardage totals.
Pick: Wentz over 245.5 passing yards (-125)
Schatz: Mark Ingram has 68 carries so far this season and has at least 14 carries in three games (Week 1 in a win over the Jags and in losses to the Browns and Patriots). In the other two games, he had only six carries in each, but those were games where Houston was blown out from the jump. I know the line on this game is large, but a blowout from the first quarter doesn't seem like the Indianapolis M.O., even if the Colts manage to eventually beat the Texans by double digits. Ingram should be a part of the game plan for most or all of this game.
Pick: Ingram over 9.5 carries (-115)
Moody: Davis Mills threw for 312 yards against the Patriots last week. I don't consider this a sign of things to come from the rookie, but Mills does have a plus matchup against a Colts secondary that was just eviscerated by Lamar Jackson on Monday Night Football. Indianapolis is heavily favored, which should result in the Texans having to rely more on Mills, Brandin Cooks and the passing game.
Cooks only has two games this season with 10 or more targets, but he's in good position to have his third against the Colts in a game the Texans are expected to trail. Cooks has averaged 78.4 receiving yards per game and has two games of 100 or more yards. The Colts defense has allowed three substantial wide receiver performances so far in 2021: Tyler Lockett (100 yards), Cooper Kupp (163) and Marquise Brown (125).
On the other side, the Colts gave up a 16-point fourth-quarter lead to the Ravens by not putting the football in the hands of their most talented player. Indianapolis somehow finished with only 24 rushing attempts, and Jonathan Taylor had just 15. When you combine the Colts' offensive line and Taylor's playmaking ability against the Texans' defensive front, the result should be fireworks that rival Macy's 4th of July Fireworks display. Taylor should be provided as many touches as possible against Houston's defense.
Pick: Mills over 212.5 passing yards (-115), Cooks over 64.5 receiving yards (-120), Taylor over 98.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115)
Walder: The Texans run Cover-2 43% of the time under defensive coordinator Lovie Smith -- by far the highest rate in the league -- according to ESPN's coverage classification using NFL Next Gen stats. And Cover-2 just so happens to allow a higher rate of receptions per drop back to running backs than almost any other coverage. So even though Taylor isn't the main receiving back in Indy, I like his chances to rack up a few yards that way on Sunday. I will note, this angle has worked out poorly for me so far this year, but I'm still rolling with it.
Pick: Taylor over 12.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Pittman is averaging six receptions per game and is receiving almost 30% of the Colts' target share. This week he has a juicy matchup against a Texans secondary that has allowed a ton of receiving yards to opposing ball-catchers.
Pick: Pittman over 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kezirian: I realize the Colts played extremely well on Monday night and have every opportunity to win the game. Unfortunately for Indy fans, Lamar Jackson was incredible and sometimes that is all it takes. I do not expect Mills to shine like the former MVP, but Houston did show some encouraging signs, nearly upsetting New England. I think Wentz's shaky play entices me to back Indy, and I do not expect much hunger from the Colts. The Texans are more than capable of keeping this inside the number.
Pick: Texans +10
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 48.5) at New York Giants
Schatz: Offense, offense, offense; that's the story of the Rams this season. The Rams are the No. 3 offense in the league according to the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. But you may be surprised that the Giants rank 15th. Both teams have been much better on offense than on defense, where the Rams are 14th and the Giants just 26th. Sure, the Giants have injuries on offense, but they've had injuries for most of this year's games and still their offense has been better than expected. This game goes over 48.5 in two-thirds of our simulations, and those simulations were based on Mike Glennon as the Giants quarterback. If Daniel Jones is healthy enough to play, the odds of this game going over the total are even higher.
Pick: Over 48.5
Moody: Cooper Kupp has averaged 11.2 targets and 104.6 receiving yards per game this season. He was even productive last week when Robert Woods exploded to the tune of 150 yards receiving yards. It would be wise for quarterback Matthew Stafford to take advantage of Kupp's matchup against Giants cornerback Adoree' Jackson. Kupp leads all wide receivers in receptions (25) and receiving yards (360) from the slot. New York's defense has allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game (270.2) this season.
Pick: Kupp over 81.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Jones (concussion) will not be 100% if he's able to play. And with Glennon as his backup, the advantage goes to the Rams in the QB category. Stafford should thrive against a Giants secondary that is 22nd in TD rate and 32nd in completion rate to opposing QBs. Darrell Henderson is one of the few "bell cow" backs (getting 60% of the touches in Week 5), and the Giants are allowing close to five yards per carry.
Pick: Rams team total over 29.5 (-115), Stafford over 2.5 TD passes (+155), Henderson over 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
Walder: This line first popped to 10.5 given the possibility of Glennon starting at quarterback for the Giants. Even if we assume that to be the case, FPI thought that was an overreaction. It would have made the line Rams -7.5 with Glennon. However, Jones now appears possible, if not likely, to start a week after suffering a concussion that knocked him out of the Giants' game against the Cowboys. Should that happen, the Giants would be quite the value -- even after the line moved down to 9.5. The difference between Glennon and Jones is more than a point; in FPI's mind, it's 2.5 points.
Pick: Giants +9.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 55.5) at Washington Football Team
Moody: Terry McLaurin has had the unfortunate pleasure to catch passes from so many different NFL quarterbacks I've lost count. However, he has still been productive. McLaurin has averaged 8.1 targets, 5.1 receptions and 71.7 receiving yards per game in 34 active games since 2019. This season he is averaging 80 receiving yards per game, and he has accumulated the most targets without a drop (49) by any player. The Chiefs defense is getting obliterated in the passing game to the tune of 296.4 yards per game. McLaurin is talented enough to consistently win against all of the Chiefs cornerbacks but could particularly exploit slot cornerback L'Jarius Sneed.
On the other side, Patrick Mahomes has a great opportunity to bounce back after a difficult game against the Bills defense on the national stage. Washington's defense has allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, and Mahomes has averaged 307.1 passing yards per game since 2018.
Pick: McLaurin over 77.5 receiving yards (-115), Mahomes over 311.5 passing yards (-115)
Walder: Opponents are playing Mahomes differently this year; they're throwing way more middle field open coverage his way. In fact, Mahomes has faced middle field open coverage -- like Cover-2, Cover-4 or 2-Man -- 66% of the time (excluding near the goal line), according to ESPN pass coverage metrics powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. No other QB is over 51%. The defensive strategy is to limit the big plays, force Mahomes to either hand it off or throw short. Now, Kansas City may still be successful. In fact, Mahomes still leads the league in QBR. But I'm just betting here that the defense will execute the big play part of the equation.
Pick: Mahomes' longest passing completion under 38.5 yards (-115)
Marks: The Chiefs' defense is awful; they have given up 30 or more points in four straight games. Chiefs games are averaging 63 combined points and Washington games are averaging 55, so expect to see points in this matchup. Taylor Heinicke should shine this week against a KC secondary that is allowing 10 yards per attempt and 14 yards per completion. Expect the Chiefs to give Darrel Williams the ball to try and eat up time of possession and keep Heinicke and crew off the field.
Pick: Washington team total over 23.5 (-125), Heinicke over 267.5 passing yards (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (-1, 46) at Carolina Panthers
Bearman: I'm still selling the Vikings and buying the Panthers. The Vikings did all they could to lose last week to the Lions and the Panthers should have beaten Philly if not for allowing an inexcusable late punt block. To me, the Panthers are the better team through five weeks, and they are playing at home. After a 3-0 start, the Panthers lost to a good Cowboys team and should have beaten Philly; both of those games were without Christian McCaffrey, and they didn't play badly in either one. Sam Darnold had an uncharacteristic three INTs last week, matching his total for the season, and failed to complete two thirds of his passes for the first time all season.
I was down on the Vikings prior to the season and they've done nothing to change that, surviving Detroit and beating an overrated Seattle team. They are winless in their last seven games as a favorite, and Kirk Cousins is just 8-10 with a 55 QBR on the road over the last three seasons. Anytime I can get what I perceive as the better team at home with points, I am going to take it. In this case, we won't need the points and will play them to win outright. If McCaffrey does suit up, this is a steal.
Pick: Panthers ML (+100)
Schatz: A big part of this pick is the difference between Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings and DAVE ratings. DAVE is our ratings system that combines performance this year (i.e. DVOA) with preseason projections. Research has shown that preseason projections still play a large role in predicting how well teams will play going forward, as late as three months into the season. They certainly play a role after just five games.
Right now, the DVOA ratings based solely on 2021 have the Vikings slightly ahead of the Panthers. Minnesota is 13th and Carolina is 17th. Not a big gap, but enough to narrowly favor the Vikings given the disappearance of home-field advantage for the third straight season. Incorporate prior knowledge with DAVE ratings, however, and now the gap is Minnesota 13th and Carolina 24th. Yes, McCaffrey may be back for Carolina this week, but no running back in the league is worth more than a point or two. And Justin Jefferson should go off against a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers. I liked this line better when it started at Vikings +1, but the difference between that and Vikings -1 isn't enough for me to come off this pick.
Pick: Vikings -1
Moody: DJ Moore had a season-low 42 receiving yards last week, but he averaged 10.8 targets and 99.5 receiving yards per game from Weeks 1-4 and now faces a subpar Vikings secondary. The Vikings' defense has given up some monster receiving performances this season, to Ja'Marr Chase (101), Rondale Moore (114) and DK Metcalf (107). Moore has a good chance to join that group once the dust settles on Week 6.
Pick: Moore over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: Cousins is going to struggle against a Panthers defense that pressures the quarterback over 40% of the time. Darnold should have a field day against one of the worst corner combos in the NFL (Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland). Expect Moore to have a huge day, considering he is Darnold's go-to in target share and the Vikings have given up big plays to WRs.
Pick: Panthers +1, Moore over 6.5 receptions (+110)
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 52)
Fortenbaugh: Play with fire long enough and you're going to get burned. Related: The Baltimore Ravens are a team that likes to play with fire. If Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn't fumble the football in Week 2, if Justin Tucker doesn't convert a game-winning, NFL-record 66-yard field goal in Week 3 and if Indianapolis doesn't blow a 19-point lead with 16 minutes remaining in Week 5, the Ravens are 1-4 instead of 4-1. As it stands, the Ravens are currently 3-1 in one-score games this season and enter Sunday's date with the Chargers operating on a short week following their comeback win on Monday night. Like Neo in "The Matrix," the Chargers are beginning to believe. Whether or not they are "The One" remains to be seen, but they're definitely live in Week 6.
Pick: Chargers +3
Marks: Two of the best gunslingers in the NFL face off this week. Lamar Jackson coming off an 86% completion game in Week 5, and Justin Herbert has thrown 11 touchdowns passes over the last three weeks. Both quarterbacks can take over the game, but Lamar has a more difficult challenge against a Chargers secondary that is limiting explosive passing plays. Jackson will have to run the ball to move the chains and keep pace with Herbert's scoring power.
Pick: Chargers +9 in 6-point teaser with Panthers +7, Chargers team total over 25.5 (-110), Lamar Jackson over 10.5 rush attempts (-140)