With five weeks of the NFL season already in the books, we have enough of a sample size to confidently assess each and every team. Injuries have set in. Players and coaches are no longer "new" to the team. Performance is no longer small-sample-size theater, but a legitimate indicator of production.
After taking a look at ESPN's Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, here are three teams that stand out that I want to target this weekend:
1. Dallas Cowboys (6)
Good teams win. Great teams cover. The Cowboys are the only remaining undefeated team ATS in the NFL. Therefore, they are the only truly great team I see at the moment in the NFL. Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level. Ezekiel Elliott looks better than he has in two years. The offensive line has avoided catastrophic injury. And the defense is wildly opportunistic, led by ball-hawking CB Trevon Diggs. The Cowboys should be no lower than No. 3 on this list, and have a legitimate claim to be No. 1. Their Week 6 test is a rather mundane trip to New England as 4-point road favorites. That's not even close to the line I think this should be (6-7 points), so I will gladly go heavy on the Cowboys -4 against a Pats team that has trouble scoring and almost lost to the lowly Texans last week.
2. Tennessee Titans (11)
The Titans are not one of the 12 best teams in the NFL. Sorry, Tennessee. Yes, Derrick Henry is an otherworldly running back who just might break the single-season rushing record and carry the ball 30 times a game, but this team is far from complete. The defense is a massive issue, and getting away from offenses like the Jaguars, Jets and Colts (their past three opponents) will likely expose them. Well, it just so happens that the Titans host the Bills in Week 6 on Monday night. I'm not sure if you noticed, but the Bills are very likely the best team in the AFC ... and have a legitimate claim as the best team in the entire NFL. I'll gladly lay the 5.5 points with the Bills on the road Monday night. In fact I'd play the Bills all the way up to 6.5 with comfort. I think the Titans are no match for Buffalo's horsepower.
3. Houston Texans (28)
It's admirable the effort that this team is giving week in and week out, but the NFL is not a participation league. The simple fact remains that the Texans are still the most talent-deficient roster in the league. Davis Mills might have just played the game of his life in Week 5 against the Patriots, but the Texans still came away a loser. That said, I'm in no hurry to lay the 10 points with the Colts at home in Week 6 -- just because it's hard to trust that particular team at the moment -- but I will point out that Indianapolis might be a strong Survivor or Eliminator pick. Although it failed me Week 1 (thanks, Jacksonville *eye roll emoji*), my strategy of picking against the Texans each week of the season has worked out fine since then. I honestly do not think they will win another game this season. I couldn't position them higher than 31st on a good day in these power rankings.