Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also not mortgaging future weeks by burning up all your good teams for later. Injuries and teams either overachieving or underachieving will always open up more opportunities later, so early in the season there is less incentive to worry about saving teams.
To make these recommendations, I look at a combination of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), point spreads from Caesars Sportsbook, injury reports, upcoming schedules and any other stats that can potentially provide an edge.
You can find all the rules here. (For more on how the FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
Last week, most of the top picks survived, but not without drama. The New England Patriots overcame a double-digit deficit in the second half against the Houston Texans. The Minnesota Vikings needed a 54-yard field goal on the final play to beat the Detroit Lions. And on Monday night, the Baltimore Ravens pulled off the biggest comeback of them all, coming back from 16 down in the 4th quarter to win against the Indianapolis Colts.
On paper, last week looked difficult, but this week looks even tougher. No team is more than a 73% favorite according to FPI. That is only scheduled to happen one more time the rest of the season.
Indianapolis is the obvious choice this week, hosting the Houston Texans. If you want to avoid the chalk or save the Colts for later, the options are either using an elite team on the road (Rams, Buccaneers, Bills, Chiefs) or getting cute with a team like the Packers, Bengals or Broncos.
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
The Colts are the biggest FPI favorites of the week and the second-biggest betting favorites. It's a tough spot for the Colts, coming off a historic blown lead to the Ravens on a short week, but there aren't many other great options. Indianapolis actually has more future value than you might think, with home games against the Jets (Week 9) and Jaguars (Week 10) still to come, but both of those weeks have more options on paper than this week. In higher stakes Eliminator pools, I would expect the Colts to be the overwhelming top pick, but given the other options on the board, it's hard to go against them. The Colts have done well in this series of late, going 5-2 against Houston under Frank Reich despite being underdogs four times.
Line: Indianapolis -9.5 (-440 ML)
FPI chance to win: 73%
Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants
The Rams are the other double-digit favorite this week. They are entering a string of games where they are usable, with upcoming games against the Lions (Week 7), Texans (Week 8), and Jaguars (Week 13), and considering the fact that they are a top-3 team according to FPI, they have a lot of future value. However, given the Giants' struggles and multitude of injuries, I have more faith in the Rams to actually win than the Bills, Buccaneers and Chiefs. Sean McVay is 10-0 as a road favorite of at least five points in his career.
Line: Los Angeles -10.5 (-650 ML)
FPI chance to win: 70%
Eliminator Challenge: 29% selected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Buccaneers have six easier games the rest of the season according to FPI, but given the options this week, burning the Buccaneers is as good a pick as any out there. Tampa Bay is one of the biggest favorites on the betting board, and big favorites on Thursday nights tend to do well. Teams favored by at least seven points are 58-7 on Thursday nights in the last 15 seasons, including 22-2 since 2016.
Line: Tampa Bay -7 (-300 ML)
FPI chance to win: 71%
Eliminator Challenge: 10% selected
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
This is probably the least confident pick in the article all season, but this is arguably the most difficult week to pick this season. If you're looking to avoid Colts and Rams chalk, and you don't want to burn the Buccaneers, Bills or Chiefs, the Packers are viable. There isn't a single week all season until Week 18 where Green Bay is one of the four biggest FPI favorites, so their future value is minimal. The Bears offense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play, and they have two touchdown passes all season. While the defense has been respectable, they've never been able to slow down Aaron Rodgers. In the last nine meetings Rodgers has played, he has 20 touchdown passes and one interception, going 8-1 in those games.
Line: Green Bay -4.5 (-210 ML)
FPI chance to win: 5%
Eliminator Challenge: 4% selected