Eliminator Challenge is one of the simplest and most fun games during the NFL season. Pick one team to win each week. If that team wins, you advance to the next week. Lose once, and you're out. The only caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
The key is to find a good balance of picking winners while also not mortgaging future weeks by burning up all of your good teams early on. Injuries and teams either overachieving or underachieving will always open up more opportunities later, so early in the season there is less incentive to worry about saving teams.
To make these recommendations, I look at a combination of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), point spreads from Caesars Sportsbook, injury reports, upcoming schedules and any other stats that can potentially provide an edge.
You can find all the rules here. (For more on how the FPI is calculated, click here and here.)
Last week, two of the four most popular selections lost in the Tennessee Titans (at New York Jets) and the New Orleans Saints (vs New York Giants). The Saints were the first loss of the year for this column. The Buffalo Bills were the most popular selection, and they rewarded players to an easy 40-0 win over the Houston Texans.
This week, five teams are favored by at least a touchdown, but there are no obvious selections like the Bills last week. Four of them are mentioned below, with the Minnesota Vikings topping the list.
The Vikings are the only big favorite playing in their easiest game all season on paper as they host the Detroit Lions. That gives them a slight edge over the New England Patriots, who play a Texans team (possibly the worst in the league) with a rookie quarterback facing Bill Belichick.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
This is the most optimal choice of the week when considering Minnesota's chance to win and future opponents. This is by far the easiest game on the schedule for Minnesota the rest of the season, with the only game coming close is a home game against the Bears in Week 18, when it's impossible to predict motivations. Recently, this has been a one-sided series with the Vikings going 6-0 with five double-digit wins against the Lions since signing Kirk Cousins.
The Lions have not pulled off an upset as an underdog of at least six points in the last three years, going 0-14 in that span. Detroit has come close to some big wins this year, but they are still a bottom-five team in the NFL, and are dealing with numerous injuries.
Line: Vikings -7.5
FPI chance to win: 74%
Eliminator Challenge: 14% selected
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
The Texans have reclaimed last place in ESPN's Football Power Index, and until Davis Mills either improves or Tyrod Taylor gets healthy, it's hard to see the Texans winning a game, especially when the opposing head coach is Bill Belichick. No rookie quarterback has beaten Belichick and the Patriots since 2013, and the one time they faced a rookie this year, Zach Wilson threw four interceptions.
While the Patriots are not necessarily built to win high-scoring games or cover large spreads, they should be able to get the win. And with the Patriots sitting at 1-3, they need this game, badly. New England still has home games remaining against the Jaguars (Week 17) and Jets (Week 7), so there are other chances to use them. But until proven otherwise, taking any respectable team against the Texans looks like a winning strategy.
Line: Patriots -9
FPI chance to win: 69%
Eliminator Challenge: 16% selected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins
Tampa Bay is the only double-digit favorite this week and the biggest FPI favorite on the board, and they get a slight edge over the Cowboys as the third-best option this week. The Dolphins offense has been the second-worst in the NFL this season based on efficiency, and they have yet to average five yards per play in any game this season.
The Buccaneers have a major edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, not to mention the quarterback matchup of Tom Brady vs Jacoby Brissett. Tampa Bay has several more usable weeks, including Week 7 (Bears), Week 17 (at Jets), Week 11 (Giants) and Week 13 (at Falcons), which is why they are third, but they are a fine selection.
Line: Buccaneers -10
FPI chance to win: 75%
Eliminator Challenge: 12% selected
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
The Cowboys are the third-biggest favorites of the week according to the FPI. They are the only team in the league to cover the spread in each of their first four games this season, led by an elite offense and a surprising defense that rates ninth in efficiency. While the Giants have been extremely good covering spreads as a road underdog recently (9-2 ATS with Daniel Jones), they've won only two of those games outright by a total of four points.
Dak Prescott has won seven straight starts against the Giants with 16 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Prescott is also 17-2 outright when laying at least six points, including 12-1 at home. The Cowboys have a few more usable weeks, including the Week 12 Thanksgiving game against the Raiders, where FPI considers them the largest favorites on the slate. They also host the struggling Falcons in Week 10.
Line: Cowboys -7
FPI chance to win: 73%
Eliminator Challenge: 18% selected