Four games into an NFL season is a fairly significant sample size to start drawing conclusions. It used to be the exact quarter mark of the regular season, but now we have a 17th game.
Either way, I think we're starting to see some trends that we can rely on as real, and not dismiss as small-sample-size outliers or anomalies. Let's take a look at some teams in the Power Rankings I think are out of place:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4) -- too high
Even if they are the defending Super Bowl champions, this is too high for what this team has shown in 2021. The Bucs' pass defense is a real problem. They can't stop anyone through the air, and almost allowed Mac Jones to dink and dunk them to death in Foxborough on Sunday night. The Bucs are 1-3 ATS this season and until they show a more complete outfit, I think it's wise to fade them (or pass this week since they are playing the wretched Miami Dolphins but laying a rather sizable 10 points).
Dallas Cowboys (9) -- too low
This is way too low for the only team in the NFL that is 4-0 ATS. The most consistent team we've seen against the spread since the season began is the Cowboys. Now, they have to lay a TD+ to the Giants at home in Week 5, but with the way the opportunistic Dallas defense is playing, they should be able to take care of business at home unless they revert to 2020 form and allow Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley to run all over them.
New Orleans Saints (17) -- too high
It's just so hard to back a football team in 2021 that cannot move the football or score on offense. Seventeenth in the rankings seems a tad too high for this crew. Somehow, Sean Payton's scheme has turned into a low-volume, inefficient mess. Alvin Kamara is getting 20-plus carries a game -- which is good -- but what about his dynamic ability in the passing game? It's been nonexistent. If ever there is a spot to get right for the Saints' offense, it's this week against the wildly underachieving Washington Football Team defense, but I'm wondering if the Saints' offense will be the tonic that unit needs to finally get right. I'd rather back the WFT as a 1-point home underdog.