Intro by Doug Kezirian
Betting handle is almost always commensurate with fan interest, and Sunday Night Football is a prime example. Tom Brady's much-anticipated Foxborough return is generating massive interest from the betting public.
"This will be the biggest volume regular season game of the year," Caesars Sportsbook Vice President of Trading Craig Mucklow said. "There isn't a primetime matchup all season of this magnitude and the betting volume will reflect that."
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened as 4.5-point favorites but the line immediately jumped to -7. And that's where is has stood all week but once the public arrives and kickoff nears, the lopsided action could drive it higher.
"It would probably cap at 7.5 because you will get the sharp money buying back at the 7.5. The public will drive the number up and the sharps will take the other side eventually," Mucklow said. Brady and Belichick formed arguably the most impressive betting tandem of quarterback and head coach. They went 189-128-7 ATS (59.6%), which ranks second all-time. And now they face off for the first time, and Belichick is catching a full touchdown as a home underdog.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (4-8-2, 0-4 last week), Tyler Fulghum (3-6, 2-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (13-7-1, 4-1) and Anita Marks (64-35, 13-9), Stats & Information's Seth Walder (13-17, 4-7) and Mackenzie Kraemer (0-2, 0-4), sports betting Deputy Editor David Bearman (8-3-1, 4-0) and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (11-5, 3-2) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
8:20 p.m. ET game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 49) at New England Patriots
Fortenbaugh: I think the Patriots are overvalued. Not just in this game, but in general. That's what two decades of elite production will do to the perceptions of the masses. Since Tom Brady exited for Tampa, New England is 8-11 both straight up and against the spread. This season, Bill Belichick's club is an underwhelming 1-2 despite having faced questionable quarterback opposition in Tua Tagovailoa, rookie Zach Wilson and Jameis Winston. Brady gets it done.
Pick: Bucs -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Packers -0.5
Moody: Jakobi Meyers has been one of the few bright spots for a Patriots offense that ranks 22nd in total yards per game. He has developed a rapport with rookie quarterback Mac Jones and leads the team in targets (29), receptions (19), receiving yards (176) and receiving air yards (293). He is positioned to exceed 63.5 receiving yards against the Buccaneers' secondary. Tampa Bay has allowed exceptional receiving performances from Amari Cooper (139 yards), Calvin Ridley (63) and Cooper Kupp (96) this season. Meyers could be the next receiver to join this list. (I have more thoughts on the big game and special props here.)
Pick: Meyers over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
Walder: This line is not respecting the kind of opportunity Mike Evans has been given this year. There is only one receiver -- one! -- who has more expected air yards based on the quantity and depth of their targets, expected completion percentage and expected YAC (per NFL Next Gen Stats) than Evans this year, and that's Cooper Kupp. Evans' 205 receiving yards pales in comparison to the 270 we would expect from an average QB-receiver combination, given the targets he has received. But here's the thing: Brady and Evans aren't average! Positive regression is incoming.
Pick: Evans over 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Kezirian: I was close to pulling the trigger and laying the points but I am just brainwashed by Bill Belichick's success. It's really hard to fade him, especially when he has burned me the few times I have. In 2020, the Patriots somehow beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night as home underdogs. It was quite a surprise. As for this matchup, I do not trust Tampa's secondary and Mac Jones could conceivably hang enough points. But ultimately, I think the Bucs get the win.
Pick: Bucs -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Bengals -1.5
4 p.m. ET games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 55)
Fulghum: Both of these offenses are ridiculously dynamic. Kyler Murray is a co-MVP favorite. Matthew Stafford has taken his game to an elite level with Sean McVay's playcalling. The Cardinals have the second-highest no-huddle rate in the NFL. The Rams are throwing at the second-highest situation-neutral rate in the league. I see far fewer paths to the under than the over in this matchup.
Pick: Over 55
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 52)
Fortenbaugh: This is a good "buy low" spot on the Seahawks, who have won 12 of the past 14 meetings between these two rivals. Additionally, take note that 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brutal 3-13-2 against the spread as a home favorite. The difference in this game will be San Francisco's depleted secondary going up against a Seattle passing attack that currently ranks first in the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4) with a quarterback in Russell Wilson who is completing 73.3% of his passes this season. I would like the Seahawks if it got to +3 or better.
Pick: Seahawks team total over 25.5 points
Marks: Give me the better quarterback and the points. Wilson is 65% ATS after a loss and as a road underdog and will be facing a beat-up 49ers secondary. Jimmy Garoppolo, on the other hand, has a backfield that is in shambles, and although he has just one interception, he has had three "turnover-worthy" plays.
Pick: Seahawks +8.5 in 6-point teaser with Panthers +10.5
Pick: DK Metcalf OVER (75.5) receiving yards -115
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-1, 45)
Schatz: This is one where I'm counting on the continued importance of preseason projections in the early part of the season. We knew going into this season that the Baltimore and Denver defenses should be good, and both were projected in the top 10. Denver is fifth so far this year in DVOA, and Baltimore is only 20th. Baltimore plays at an average pace in neutral situations, but the Broncos rank 31st in neutral pace and dead last in total pace (one play every 32 seconds, compared to an NFL average of 28 seconds).
Pick: Under 45
Walder: Marquise Brown overs absolutely killed me last year ... but I just can't resist. In terms of opportunity -- based on air yards, expected completion percentage and expected YAC based off of NFL Next Gen Stats -- Brown is averaging an expected 88.9 receiving yards per game this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league right behind Stefon Diggs. Diggs' line is at 83.5, but Brown's is down at 52.5. While it's reasonable at this point to expect Brown to come in under his expectation, the differential here is huge. I expect he'll convert his opportunity into, well, more than 52 yards.
Pick: Brown over 52.5 receiving yards (-155)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 45.5)
Bearman: Week 1 feels so long ago. Remember when the Steelers went into Buffalo to knock off the Super Bowl-contending Bills and the Packers no-showed vs. the Saints? A strong first-half defense, a blocked punt and maybe some early-season rust from the Bills led us to think the Steelers were contenders. Since then, Big Ben has struggled mightily and the offensive line has been awful, leading to home losses to the Raiders and Bengals in which Pittsburgh was never in either game. After trailing at home on MNF to the Lions, the Packers have put together six solid quarters of football to show us they are who we thought they were. Aaron Rodgers has completed 75% of his passes for six TDs and no picks in the past two games, both in prime time. He should have no trouble at home against a struggling Steelers team that will not be able to match points. I jumped on this Monday morning as soon as I saw it was under a TD, as it feels more like a 10- to 14-point Packers win.
Pick: Packers -6.5
Fortenbaugh: The Steelers are a blocked punt at Buffalo away from being 0-3 thanks to a brutal offensive line and an over-the-hill quarterback who plays in boots made of cement. Green Bay's defense has turned the corner from that Week 1 debacle against the Saints and currently ranks a respectable 12th in the NFL in opponent yards per play (5.5). Pittsburgh has given me no reason to overthink this one.
Pick: Packers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Bucs -0.5
Marks: Ben Roethlisberger is struggling and has had to get rid of the ball quickly behind a bad offensive line. His QBR is just 35.5 and his average yards per pass sits around 5. His receivers are dropping balls too. And Pittsburgh's defense has had its own share of issues. The Steelers did not record a sack in last week's loss to the Bengals, and now have to go up against Rodgers. All signs point to Green Bay.
Pick: Packers -6.5, Packers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Saints -1.5
Kezirian: I am a bit reluctant to lay the points with Green Bay because I think we get a solid effort from Pittsburgh, as the Steelers also start to get healthier. However, 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has less mobility than the actual Big Ben clock and Aaron Rodgers is a total beast. It's hard to envision the Pack not getting the win at home. I believe Pittsburgh is the AFC North's worst team.
Pick: Packers -0.5 in 6-point teaser with Bengals -1.5
1 p.m. ET games
Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 54.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Moody: Tyreek Hill has caught only eight of 11 targets for 73 receiving yards over the past two games. He's due for an eruption, and the Eagles' shaky secondary provides him a great spot to do so. Hill has averaged 113.7 receiving air yards and 85.7 receiving yards since 2020. His output in Week 4 should be more in line with his recent per-game averages.
Pick: Hill over 76.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Eagles have to get back to running the ball. This week is a prime opportunity to do just that against a Chiefs team that is allowing over 5 yards per carry. Miles Sanders hasn't hit this mark since the season opener, but the Eagles will have to give him the ball to find success.
Pick: Sanders over 60.5 rushing yards (-120)
Kezirian: Let's not pour dirt on the Chiefs just yet. They have faced three potential playoff teams and are a few plays away from an undefeated mark. I realize that is life in the NFL and they clearly need to clean up some things on defense but I still believe in the defending AFC champs. Andy Reid is not quite getting the same hype as Tom Brady is, but I do think this will be a good week of preparation for KC. That's obviously magnified with back-to-back losses. I am also not a big believer in Philly so happy to roll with KC to win by two or more points.
Pick: Chiefs -1 in 6-point teaser with Bengals -1.5
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 43.5)
Bearman: Last week I read Aaron's pick on Saints/Patriots under 43 and immediately added it to my board. Two struggling offenses, both of which had better-than-average defenses. Mac Jones gave the Saints seven points at home and they still didn't get to 43. Now we get an offense that's arguably just as bad or worse in the Giants on the road and the total is higher. The Giants have slightly better offensive numbers than the Patriots, with most of it coming in the Thursday night game against Washington. The Saints meanwhile, come in sixth in defensive scoring and yards allowed and third in rushing defense, which will be good enough to stop the only thing the Giants have been able to do: run. Oh, and by the way, the Giants are 14-4-1 to the under the past two seasons, most in the NFL. Hopefully, Jameis Winston doesn't give away points like Jones did. Laying more than a TD with an inconsistent team and an inconsistent QB is a bad idea, so I'm going to focus on the total here in a game that should be around 24-13.
Pick: Under 43.5
Moody: Winston has amassed only 62 pass attempts and 387 passing yards through three games, but he wasn't asked to do much last week against the Patriots with New Orleans leading the entire game. This week he has a plus matchup against the Giants. Teddy Bridgewater (264), Taylor Heinicke (336) and Matt Ryan (243) all had success against New York's secondary. Winston has yet to hit the over on his passing yard total, but I'm betting that to change against the Giants this week.
Pick: Winston over 200.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: The Saints are back home in the dome where they have a huge home-field advantage. Their defense has been better than expected and has a top-three pressure rate on opposing QBs. That's bad news for a Giants offensive line that has one of the worst pass-blocking rates.
Pick: Saints -7, Saints -1.5 in 6-point teaser with Packers -0.5, Taysom Hill over 1.5 receiving yards (-120)
Pick: Daniel Jones UNDER Passing yards (236.5) -115
Walder: These are two of the weaker pass rushes, but I'm on the over anyway. When it comes to sacks, my hierarchy of importance is generally QB sack rates, then pass protection, and then pass-rushing ability. In this case, both quarterbacks attract sacks at an above-average rate -- both this season and over the past several seasons. Plus, each team's pass protection has been middling thus far. Though neither of them have lit the world on fire this year, the opportunities should be there for Cameron Jordan and Leonard Williams, plus rookies Azeez Ojulari and Payton Turner.
Pick: Total sacks over 4.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 45) at New York Jets
Kraemer: The Jets have the worst offense in the NFL through three games, and it has been especially bad in the first half. Through three games, the Jets have scored three points in the first half. All three Jets games have also gone way under the total. On the flip side, the Jets' defense has been better than expected despite a lot of youth, and the Titans could be without A.J. Brown and possibly Julio Jones. Expect a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, who typically does his best work in the second half. Henry is averaging under 3.0 yards per carry in the first half and 5.9 yards per rush in the second. He takes advantage of tired defenses, and as a result, I'm isolating the first half to target this total.
Pick: First half under 23 points
Walder: My goodness, 110.5 rushing yards is the line? I mean, I get it, it's Derrick Henry and his team is going to be winning. The attempts will be there. But here's the thing: For as good as Henry is, that's an awfully high number for someone going against what actually is a pretty good run defense, according to our win rates. The Jets rank fifth in run stop win rate and still are first in projected run stop win rate going forward. I'll bank on the one good part of the Jets keeping Henry in check.
Pick: Henry under 110.5 rushing yards (-110)
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 50.5)
Schatz: So far this season, Dallas ranks second in offensive DVOA in first quarters, and Carolina ranks fourth. Quarter and half splits are often just noise, but first-quarter offensive DVOA can be a useful indicator of how well a team plays in neutral situations when the entire playbook is available and how well the offensive coordinator scripts the first couple series of plays. A touchdown and a field goal is all it takes for this prop to push, and more than that will win. Dallas and Carolina have combined for 49 points in the first quarter so far this season.
Pick: First quarter over 10 points
Moody: DJ Moore is off to a fabulous start to the season. The potential that has always been there is finally on full display. Moore has averaged 10.3 targets, 7.7 receptions and 95 receiving yards per game. This week he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed Chris Godwin, Mike Williams and Jalen Reagor to post a combined average of 83 receiving yards per game this season. Moore is averaging 12.4 yards per reception.
Pick: Moore over 76.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Panthers' defense has been one of the best in the league so far this season and is particularly good on third down, where it has allowed opponents to convert just over 20% of the time. The Panthers also boast the No. 1 pressure rate at 48%. On the offensive side, Moore has become Sam Darnold's favorite target, getting more than a 24% target share in all three weeks.
Pick: Panthers +4.5, Panthers +10.5 in 6-point teaser with Seahawks +8.5, Moore over 5.5 receptions (-150)
Walder: Don't expect nice, neat pockets for either quarterback in this game. The Cowboys and Panthers rank 30th and 32nd in pass block win rate, respectively. And it's a total mismatch when Dallas has the ball, too, because the Panthers are tied for the league lead in pass-rush win rate with Brian Burns, Haason Reddick and Morgan Fox all bringing the heat. Plus, while Darnold has been a shade above average when it comes to avoiding sacks this year, I'm still leaning on my strong prior that he takes sacks at a very high clip. Yes, DeMarcus Lawrence is missing for Dallas, but Micah Parsons has been bringing plenty of pressure.
Pick: Total sacks over 5.5 (+110 at DraftKings)
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-16.5, 47)
Schatz: Houston's defense so far this year has been ... good? The Texans currently rank 12th in defensive DVOA through three games. The Bills' defense has been even better, ranking second so far behind only the Carolina Panthers. Buffalo's offense was spectacular against the Washington Football Team but had some struggles in the first two weeks. Houston's offense is run by third-round rookie Davis Mills -- enough said. My one worry here is that Buffalo has played with a very high situation-neutral pace, but I doubt this game will be situation-neutral for very long. The line predicts a Buffalo win, and I predict the total scoring to stay down.
Pick: Under 47
Walder: Houston runs Cover 2 a whopping 54% of the time under defensive coordinator Lovie Smith, according to ESPN coverage metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats. That's well beyond the league average of 20% and also way ahead of the next-heaviest Cover 2 team, the Falcons, at 35%. One production attribute of Cover 2 is that it allows more receptions to running backs, as it leaves a vacated area where the back can catch a checkdown. I'll bank on Devin Singletary taking advantage.
Pick: Singletary over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
Marks: The Bills are rolling. They have put up 74 combined points over the past two games against what we thought at least were solid defenses in Miami and Washington. Allen & Co. will keep things going. Emmanuel Sanders, who is averaging over 14 yards per reception, should catch a deep ball.
Pick: Bills team total over 31.5 points, Allen over 2.5 TD passes (+130), Sanders longest reception over 19.5 yards (-125)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3, 42)
Bearman: I'm 2-0-1 this year fading the Bears and am going to keep on doing it. After everyone screamed from the rooftops that the problem was Matt Nagy not giving up on Andy Dalton, you saw what the result of Justin Fields' first start was -- 6-for-20 for 68 yards and nine sacks. The 47 total yards and 1 net yard of passing were both the lowest since 1981 for Chicago. The Bears are dead last in most offensive categories through three weeks, scoring a combined 40 points. And yet, they are favored this week by a field goal. Yes, it's the 0-3 Lions. But it's the 0-3 Lions who covered against the Niners, had a halftime lead over the Packers on the road and lost on a 66-yard FG to the Ravens last week after a non-call set it up. Detroit is better than its record shows and will pick off a few wins this season, starting this week in Chicago. I was tempted to take the under with Chicago's offense as bad as it is, but the Lions' defense has given up yards and points in two of three games, so we will just stay with the Lions covering this and play them live in parlays.
Pick: Lions +3
Cleveland Browns (-2, 51.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Schatz: This pick is less about the quality of the defenses, despite the impressive show of pass rush that the Browns put on against Chicago last week. After all, the Vikings rank 25th in defensive DVOA, and while the Browns are first in pass rush win rate, the Vikings are just 30th. No, this pick is more about pace. Both of these teams like to run the ball and take time off the clock. Minnesota and Cleveland are 25th and 26th, respectively, in situation-neutral pace so far this season. The Vikings will run the ball to try to slow down that Cleveland pass rush, which will make for longer drives -- in time, if not in yardage. Our simulations estimate that this game should go under 51.5 points roughly 69% of the time.
Pick: Under 51.5
Fortenbaugh: The Vikings are the NFL's premier Jekyll and Hyde act when it comes to home/road splits, as the crowd noise inside U.S. Bank Stadium provides the defense with an extra layer of ammunition. In two road contests this season, Mike Zimmer's crew is permitting an average of 30.5 points and 420 yards per game. In one home date -- a win over Russell Wilson and Seattle last Sunday -- the Vikings allowed just 17 points and 389 total yards. This Minnesota defense will offer Baker Mayfield his stiffest challenge to date. Meanwhile, the Browns currently rank fifth in the NFL in opponent yards per play (4.6) and will provide Minnesota with its most daunting defensive test of the season. I'm a bit surprised this total is sitting above 50.
Pick: Under 51.5
Moody: The Browns' offensive identity revolves around Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and the running game. Cleveland ranks first in rushing attempts per game (34). However, the Vikings (290) have allowed the sixth-most opponent passing yards per game. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 246-plus yards in two out of three games this season, and from Week 13 of last season through Week 4 of this season he is averaging 279 passing yards per game. The Vikings' defense has allowed Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson a combined average of 319.6 passing yards per game. This bodes well for Mayfield in Week 4.
Pick: Mayfield over 249.5 passing yards (-115)
Marks: Things just line up for Cleveland this week. The Browns are a top-10 offense, and now Mayfield, who has completed 73.8% of his passes, gets Odell Beckham Jr. back in the mix. The Vikings' pass defense has allowed over 260 receiving yards and three total TDs to opposing teams' No. 1 receivers.
Pick: Browns team total over 26.5, Mayfield over 249.5 passing yards (-115)
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (-1.5, 42.5)
Walder: This is the opposite version of the Devin Singletary pick I made a few games ago. Running backs catch .09 passes per dropback against Man-1, below the average against all coverages of .13 receptions per dropback. And no team runs more Man-1 than Miami at 56%, per ESPN coverage metrics using NFL Next Gen Stats data. That should lower our expectation for Nyheim Hines' receiving day just enough to get me interested.
Pick: Hines under 3.5 receptions (-160)
Washington Football Team (-1.5, 48) at Atlanta Falcons
Schatz: The Falcons might have narrowly beaten the Giants last week, but they were slaughtered in the first two weeks of the season. Even after a close win, they rank dead last in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. Atlanta is 32nd on offense -- its running game has been awful, with just 3.8 yards per carry -- and 30th on defense. That makes the Falcons only the second team since 2010 to rank in the bottom three on both offense and defense after three weeks (Miami in 2019 was the other). Washington is only 23rd in overall DVOA and its defense is a disappointing 29th, but there's a very sizable gap between Washington and the Falcons, the same size as the gap between Washington and Tampa Bay. I still think Taylor Heinicke is better than the average backup, even though he had his first game of negative passing DVOA last week. And home-field advantage for Atlanta? With home teams going 24-24 so far this season, this looks like it's the third straight year with no recognizable home-field advantage.
Pick: Washington +1.5
Moody: The good news is that Calvin Ridley is averaging 9.7 targets per game this season. The bad news is that he is averaging only 8.8 receiving air yards per target. As a point of reference, Ridley averaged 14.3 air yards per target last season. This could change against Washington's defense. Ridley should have a significant advantage against all of the Football Team's cornerbacks, especially Benjamin St-Juste and William Jackson III. Washington's defense has allowed an average of 90 receiving yards this season to opposing teams' top wide receivers.
Pick: Ridley over 76.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Falcons have the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense, and Heinicke's mobility will help Washington get into the red zone to put up points. J.D. McKissic played almost 50% of the snaps last week and was on the field regularly in third-and-long situations. He had six targets and five receptions two weeks ago against the Giants.
Pick: Heinicke over 1.5 TD passes (-140), Heinicke over 261.5 passing yards (-115), McKissic over 30.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings), Mike Davis under 2.5 receptions (+130)