Intro by Doug Kezirian
Whenever Nick Saban and Alabama take the field, they seemingly are breaking or extending a record -- and Saturday will be just the latest case. The Crimson Tide are poised to become the largest road favorite over an AP top-15 team since 2000, laying 15.5 points against the No. 11 Florida Gators.
"How much of this line is an overreaction to how dominant 'Bama was against Miami," pro bettor Jay Romano said to ESPN, referencing the Crimson Tide's 44-13 mauling in the season opener. "The Gators have a better defense than Miami. They're playing (at home) in The Swamp. They're familiar with this Alabama team and have been able to play with them the last couple years. And we haven't seen Bryce Young in a hostile environment."
Alabama is favored for an 83rd straight game, which is the nation's longest active streak, and is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games games as double-digit favorite. The public will ride the Tide and thus they will have to pay a tax to back Saban, who is 10-0 in his career against Dan Mullen.
"You're never going to make a living betting against 'Bama. I don't care about the situation. However, having said that, where is the Florida money coming from other than the sharps? This line is likely going up," Romano said. "It's taking everything in me not to grab the 15.5 points."
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (4-9 overall, 2-6 last week), Bill Connelly (6-4, 3-2), Tyler Fulghum (2-1, 1-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (5-4, 1-3) and David M. Hale (2-5, 1-2) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Saturday's best bets
No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies at West Virginia Mountaineers (-3, 50.5), Noon ET
Connelly: I'm just putting total trust in SP+ in this one. It had Virginia Tech a healthy 33rd to start the season -- certainly higher than most humans had them -- and the Hokies have looked fantastic thus far, actually rising to 22nd. WVU feasted on FCS newcomer Long Island last week but got outplayed significantly by Maryland in Week 1, and I'm honestly not really sure why the Mountaineers are favored. It should be pretty tight, and even the Tech-loving SP+ has it only a three-point game. But Tech should probably be the three-point favorite, not WVU.
Pick: Virginia Tech +3
Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 25 Michigan Wolverines (-27, 54), Noon ET
Connelly: Time to put faith in ... Michigan? What could possibly go wrong? The Wolverines have looked legitimately strong in their first two games, and while those games were against WMU and Washington, they overachieved against the closing line by a combined 31 points. SP+ has had a stronger read on UM than the books so far and thinks this is more like a five-touchdown game, not four.
NIU has done better than expected thanks to bursts -- two quick touchdowns in the first half against Georgia Tech in a one-point win and an out-of-nowhere four-touchdown binge to turn a 26-point deficit against Wyoming into a brief one-point lead -- but while that shows plenty of heart and opportunism, it probably isn't sustainable. UM should be able to avoid a binge and win comfortably.
Pick: Michigan -27
Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 58.5), 2:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: I respect situational spots probably more than most handicappers. It's hard to imagine a worse one than what both Florida State and Notre Dame faced last weekend, coming off a short week and overtime thriller. Neither covered, but at least Notre Dame escaped the upset bid. The Irish survived Toledo and now seem like a good buy-low opportunity. I trust Brian Kelly to get his team back on track. Purdue has handled its business in the first two games, but this is a step up in class compared to its first two opponents. I think the rivalry game brings out the best week of practice for the golden domers and we see a convincing win Saturday.
Pick: Notre Dame -7
Fortenbaugh: What does this game mean to Notre Dame? I ask because with several marquee matchups on the schedule, it's easy for the Purdue game to slip through the cracks, especially when you consider a Soldier Field showdown with Wisconsin is on deck for the Irish. For the Boilermakers, this game means everything, as evidenced by the fact that Purdue is 5-1 against the spread in its last six trips to South Bend. Additionally, Jeff Brohm's squad is 17-5 ATS over its last 22 games as an underdog. That Irish defense has been highly suspect through two games, allowing a grand total of 67 points while ranking 64th in opponent yards per play. Purdue should be able to move the ball in this one.
Pick: Purdue +7
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5, 58.5) at No. 11 Florida Gators, 3:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: Led by quarterback Bryce Young, who is currently completing 70% of his passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, Alabama's offense shouldn't have an issue scoring on a Florida defense that has already surrendered 34 total points to Florida Atlantic and South Florida. I know 34 points may not seem like a lot, but it's Florida Atlantic and South Florida! The Gators are currently deploying a two-quarterback system featuring Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson, the latter of whom has put up huge ground numbers (11 carries, 275 yards, two touchdowns) and should pose problems for a Tide front seven that is already down linebacker Christopher Allen (foot) and could be without linebacker Will Anderson (knee). Florida's offensive pace should put this number over the top.
Pick: Over 58.5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes (-26.5, 61), 3:30 p.m. ET
Fulghum: Love this spot for Ohio State to bounce back in front of the home fans in a "get right" spot. C.J. Stroud and his bevy of wide receivers should light up the Tulsa secondary. After the loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes have a great opportunity and the incentive to go off and light up an inferior opponent.
Pick: Ohio State first quarter -7
Old Dominion Monarchs at Liberty Flames (-27.5, 54), 6 p.m. ET on ESPN3
Fulghum: Liberty is 2-0 ATS so far this season and has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Malik Willis and head coach Hugh Freeze. As a small school independent, the Flames are incentivized to run up the score as often as they can, and Freeze is more than happy to do so. The Liberty defense is also pretty stout, holding opponents to just 10.0 PPG this season
Pick: Liberty -27.5
Utah Utes (-7.5, 44.5) at San Diego State Aztecs, 7 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: This is an excellent buy-low spot on the Utes, who are coming off a brutal Holy War performance against BYU in which Utah converted only 2-of-9 third-down opportunities, finished -2 in turnover differential and held the ball for just over 24 minutes in a nine-point loss despite closing as seven-point favorites. Take note that the Utes are 11-3 against the spread in the regular season when coming off a loss over the last five years. Don't expect much from an anemic San Diego State offense that is currently overvalued following wins against New Mexico State and Arizona -- two horrific programs.
Pick: Utah -7.5
No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6, 53), 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Kezirian: I am really pumped to watch this game. Not only is the "white out" atmosphere going to resonate, but I want to see a Big Ten school like Penn State deliver against an SEC school like Auburn. If you may recall, my favorite season win total play was Auburn under seven wins. This is a situation where I anticipated a loss, and that's because of Bo Nix's road woes. In 12 starts away from Jordan-Hare Stadium, he has never surpassed 300 passing yards and has only thrown three TD passes once. Plus, he's not exactly lights out on the plains.
I expect Auburn to approach things very conservatively on offense and lean on its strong defense. Penn State has demonstrated a stout defense as well, so this should be a low-scoring battle most of the way. I am a bit concerned that one team may unravel in the second half, much like we saw with Iowa and Iowa State last weekend. So I'll ride with the first half under.
Pick: First half under 26.5
Stanford Cardinal (-11, 49) at Vanderbilt Commodores, 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Kezirian: Perhaps people do change, contrary to what jaded daters will tell you. Stanford is now an offensive juggernaut and David Shaw is comfortable throwing the ball, especially when protecting a lead. Okay, that's a bit much, but Stanford did unveil a much different offense last week with its dominant win at USC. Tanner McKee took over the starting quarterback job and showed why he was such a top recruit. The QB turned down offers from high-profile programs like Florida and Auburn; he was the No. 3 pocket passer in the class of 2018, right behind Trevor Lawrence and J.T. Daniels, before taking two years off for his LDS mission. His 16-for-23 passing performance with two touchdowns against USC was no fluke.
On the flip side, Vanderbilt is still abysmal. Yes, the Commodores rallied from a 14-0 deficit to pick up their first win last week, but it came against Colorado State. Both schools suffered convincing losses to FCS schools in their openers. Vandy should get smoked, even if it's consecutive road games for the Cardinal.
Pick: Stanford -12
Connelly: Pretty much what Doug said. SP+ isn't designed to account for things like "You played the first game with the wrong quarterback," but it still projects the Cardinal to win by 14.8. Any extra adjustment you give them for playing McKee makes this an even safer bet, and that's before we talk about the fact that Vandy's win over (a very bad) CSU came with the Commodores getting outgained by two yards per play. This should indeed be a blowout.
Pick: Stanford -12
Rice Owls at Texas Longhorns (-26, 52.5), 8 p.m. ET
Connelly: Like Stanford, Texas might have begun the season with the wrong quarterback. Hudson Card was solid against Louisiana but overwhelmed against Arkansas, and Casey Thompson filled in and both steadied the ship and, evidently, won the starting job. He'll be the first-stringer against Rice.
Again, as with the Stanford game, SP+ liked Texas to cover (it says UT by 32.9), even without any sort of "correct quarterback" adjustment. Rice games can be tricky since they can slow the tempo way down at times, but if Thompson's insertion means any sort of bonus points for the Horns, they should win by four-plus touchdowns.
Pick: Texas -26
No. 19 Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5, 51.5) at No. 23 BYU Cougars, 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
Fortenbaugh: This is a major flat spot for a BYU program that just defeated archrival Utah in the Holy War for the first time since 2009. Take note that everything broke right for the Cougars in that contest, from their performance on third down (11-for-19) to turnover differential (+2) to time of possession (35:26). Arizona State plays a nasty brand of defense in which the Sun Devils have allowed just 24 points through two contests while holding the opposition to a paltry 2.8 yards per play (third in the NCAA). Also note that ASU brings back 20 starters from a squad that went 3-0 against the spread on the road last season.
Pick: Arizona State -3.5
Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 13 UCLA Bruins (-11.5, 62.5), 10:45 p.m. ET
Connelly: SP+ has had a strong read on UCLA as well, so let's ride that hot streak until it runs out. Fresno State has been one of the stronger teams in the Mountain West thus far and threw a scare into Oregon with a second-half charge, but UCLA rode a dynamite run game and aggressive defense to a blowout of Hawaii and a shockingly comfortable win over LSU. There's always a chance that Chip Kelly's Bruins spent their bye week reading the proverbial press clippings -- are clippings still a thing? -- and come out flat after their big win. If that's the case, or if their aggression is misplaced and takes some counterpunches, they could struggle for a while. But UCLA has shown just about as much raw upside as any team outside of Tuscaloosa or Athens, so let's ride that out until SP+'s faith actually proves misplaced. It says UCLA by 18.1, and that's good enough for me.
Pick: UCLA -11.5