The NBA playoffs are reaching the end, but there are plenty of betting opportunities each night and in futures. Which teams will emerge from the postseason?
Our analysts -- Doug Kezirian (29-16 regular season, 1-2 play-in, 16-11 playoffs), Joe Fortenbaugh (14-14, 1-1, 16-16, André Snellings (61-42-1, 5-4, 54-60-2), Tyler Fulghum (24-30, 1-1, 23-14) and Anita Marks (24-17, 0-6, 28-25) -- are here to give their best bets for the playoffs.
Records through Friday. Odds by Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless noted otherwise.
Saturday's best bets
Game 6: Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks (-2, 216.5)
Bucks lead series 3-2
Kezirian: The Bucks responded off an embarrassing loss just as I thought they would and dominated Game 5. Similarly, I expect the Hawks to do the same at home. Part of that handicap is a likely return of Trae Young. Regardless, Nate McMillan rightfully criticized his team's effort and they should bounce back in front of their home crowd. Plus, the Hawks now have a better idea of how Milwaukee plans to attack without Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Hawks should fire from the gates.
Pick: Hawks first quarter -.5 (-125)
Marks: This obviously is a difficult game to handicap not knowing if both Giannis and Young will be active and attractive. I'm wagering this game assuming Giannis will be inactive, and Young will be limited. The Hawks back on their home court will fuel this squad and Nate McMillan will have his guys ready with a solid game plan for tonight.
Meanwhile, the Bucks come back to reality, where not every player on the roster will have a career night. I have liked John Collins throughout this series, and like him even more night with Giannis doubtful. Clint Capela has faded in this series, and I see much of the same this game. Bogdan Bogdanovic's knee issue seems behind him as he landed 7 of 15 from downtown last game. His stroke should get even better in HOTlanta! I expect Young to be active, but limited, therefore Kevin Huerter will still get his minutes to help dish. The Bucks Bobby Portis will have to fill the void of Giannis if inactive, but I don't anticipate Middleton to have as much success tonight as he did feeding off the energy in Milwaukee last game.
Pick: ATL -2.5, Collins over 24.5 PAR, Bogdanovic over 3.5 3-pointers made, Huerter over 4.5 assists (+105), Capela under 10.5 rebounds (+100), Portis over 25.5 Pts/Reb, Middleton under 43.5 PAR
Series picks
Conference finals
Atlanta Hawks (+360) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-475)
Snellings: The Bucks come in as big favorites in this series, and I do expect them to win. I've had them as the favorites all season, and after their war of attrition with the Nets, I still see them as most likely to win this year's championship. But with that said, the Hawks have been drastically underestimated this entire postseason and still seem to be. After Nate McMillan took over as the interim head coach on March 2, the Hawks generated the best record in the Eastern Conference with 27 wins and 11 losses (the Bucks were fourth in the East at 25-13). I picked them to win both of their playoffs series, against the Knicks and the top-seeded 76ers, in large part because they've been playing at a high enough level to support that. They have a puncher's chance against the Bucks because they run more on-ball picks than anyone. Per Second Spectrum, Trae Young has utilized more on-ball picks (3,909) this season than any other player in the NBA, and the Bucks aren't particularly strong at defending that play. Jrue Holiday has allowed 1.03 points per chance as the ball-handler defender against picks, ranking 265th among 310 players to defend at least 100 picks.
Ultimately, I think the Bucks will be too much for the Hawks and could win this by 2 games (-220). They have better size at every position, the Hawks don't have an answer for Giannis in the paint and, since they have home-court advantage, they get up to four games out of "home Middleton" vs. a max of three of "road Middleton." But I expect this to be a hard-fought series, with the Bucks winning in six.
Pick: Bucks to win (-475), Hawks +2.5 (-130)
Phoenix Suns (-200) vs. LA Clippers (+170)
Snellings: For the series, the Suns look like the stronger team. Of the two absent superstars, it seems to me that Paul (who is reportedly vaccinated) has a better chance than Leonard to return in a timely manner. With both out, I'd favor the Suns -- and with both healthy, I would as well. Thus, given the unknowns, I'll settle into that evaluation. The Suns have a more balanced team, with a potent backcourt, excellent 3-and-D wings and a strong interior presence at both ends of the floor. The Clippers have a puncher's chance with their strong wings-based attack and reliance on the 3-pointer, but the Suns are stronger top to bottom. My pick is Suns in six.
Pick: Suns to win (-200), Suns -1.5 games (+100)
Conference semifinals
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks (Nets - 210, Bucks +180)
Snellings: This series pits very possibly the two best teams in the NBA against one another, especially considering the major injuries affecting the other contenders. The Nets feature the most star-studded Big Three in the NBA and have been the betting favorite to win the championship for most of the season. But I've long been on record that I believe the Bucks are the best team in the East, and they have an excellent chance to win this series.
The Bucks had a combined +9.4 point scoring margin during the past two seasons before this one, indicating they were playing at a historically elite level in those regular seasons. Teams flirting with 10-point scoring margins typically win championships -- and often as part of dynasties. This made the Bucks' losses the last two postseasons even more glaring. But those losses could clearly be traced to two factors: 1. opponents with elite defensive front lines that could wall off Giannis Antetokounmpo, forcing the Bucks' supporting cast to try to create offense that they were unable to do, and 2. a team defense that didn't switch nearly enough, which was deadly against front lines that could produce from the perimeter. The Bucks changed key personnel and team philosophy this season, with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton taking a much larger role in team offense creation, and P.J. Tucker joining Holiday to give them team a big punch on the defensive end. After spending the regular season apparently tinkering and acclimating, the Bucks brought it all together to crush a Heat team that was the defending Eastern Conference champs, ranked sixth in ESPN BPI and were fresh off dominating the Bucks in the postseason in the bubble.
The Nets may be in the argument for most gifted offensive talent ever, but they don't have much interior presence on either end. They've been vulnerable to strong interior players all season, and they will be facing the best interior finisher in the NBA in Giannis. The Bucks also have great size versatility, able to field twin tower units with multiple 7-footers as an alternative to their Giannis/Tucker death lineups.
All told, this shapes up as a great series. But I've got the Bucks winning it in six games. This opens up three levels of bets, depending on your level of confidence.
Pick: Bucks +1.5 games to win series (-130); Bucks to win series (+180); Bucks -1.5 games to win series (+260)
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Atlanta Hawks (76ers -180, Hawks +160)
Snellings: This is another series that could swing on unknowns about player health. As well as the Hawks are playing, if we knew for sure that Joel Embiid was healthy and would be available for the entire series, the 76ers would have to be favored. But with him having missed most of the last two games of the last series with a "partial meniscus tear," it is very unclear what Embiid's status is coming into this matchup. And given the way the Hawks scorched the Knicks in the first round, that uncertainty really opens the door for a potential upset.
When facing a similar scenario in the first round of the playoffs, I picked the Suns +1.5 games over a Lakers team facing injury question marks at the top. I feel like that's the safest play here, as well. Picking the Hawks with a handicap hedges against a full-strength Embiid because the Hawks would still have a reasonable chance to compete either way. They're playing that well right now, and they've got the size and offensive versatility to make even a fully healthy 76ers squad work. But if Embiid is limited or unable to go full bore, the Hawks have a reasonable chance to win outright. In that scenario, in fact, I'd have the Hawks in six. This, again, opens up a range of potential bets, depending on how aggressive you want to go.
Pick: Hawks +1.5 games to win series (-135), Hawks to win series in 7 (+680), Hawks -1.5 games to win series (+270)
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns (Suns -210, Nuggets +175)
Snellings: The series shapes up to be hard fought and may turn on just how much Paul's shoulder may have improved after a few days of rest. If he's healthy, with their stronger defense, the Suns should be favored to win Game 1, as well as to eke out a very competitive series. If Paul isn't at his best for the entire series, though, the Nuggets have the chops to pull this one out. I've got the Suns in 7, which means I like the Nuggets with the handicap. If you're feeling aggressive toward the Nuggets, should they win, they'd likely do so in six as Game 6 is on their home court.
Picks: Nuggets +1.5 (-115); aggressive → Nuggets -1.5 (+325)
LA Clippers vs. Utah Jazz (Jazz -130, Clippers +110)
Snellings: All told, it's a fascinating match-up. I could talk myself into either team on any given day. That's probably why I think this series has a good chance to go at least six games. I'll take the Clippers in six games.
Series predictions: Clippers (+130); Clippers +1.5 (-200); aggressive → Clippers -1.5 (+175)
First round
Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets (best-of-7 first-round series)
Kezirian: Props to Boston for a solid win over a Wizards squad, thanks to Jayson Tatum's memorable 50-point performance. But this is a much different situation and too much of an ask. The Nets might be a bit overpriced in the futures market, but they are still a distinctly better team. Tatum is fantastic and Kemba Walker can certainly deliver in big games, but this team just lacks the horses to hang. Brooklyn is finally healthy with Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden all playing together. Of course I wish they had more than eight games together, but it will not inhibit them in this series.
Brooklyn won and covered all three regular-season meetings, winning each one by at least nine points, and I expect the Nets to have similar ease in this round. This should be a one-sided series. As much as I think a -1400 series price has value, no one enjoys laying that kind of lumber. However, I think -2.5 games (-140) is a solid play, since it allows the Nets to blow one game and still cash a ticket. Boston could easily steal a game, perhaps at home in Game 3.
Pick: Nets -2.5 games (-140)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets (best-of-7 first-round series)
Kezirian: I loved Denver's midseason acquisition of Aaron Gordon, but the championship hopes were derailed with Jamal Murray's knee injury. It's really too bad because Gordon fit in perfectly, and Michael Porter Jr. is evolving into a reliable and solid scorer. They obviously still have a chance to make a run, but I am going to side with Portland. The Blazers weathered the storm of injuries to CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic and now seem overwhelmingly loaded on offense. I think the Blazers, who will certainly allow points with their poor defense, have too much offense for Denver.
The Game 1 point spread also is a good indication. Denver is only a one-point favorite on its home court. Portland figures to be in the neighborhood of four points when the series shifts to the Pacific Northwest. Obviously the Nuggets have one more home game as the higher seed, but I like Portland's chances. Blazers in six games (+400) is worth a sprinkle too.
Pick: Blazers to win series (-125)
Snellings: This shapes up as one of the better matchups of the first round, with two teams that are both stronger than public perception. The Nuggets were many people's dark horse before Murray's injury, but in reality the combination of the late-season addition of Gordon and the emergence of Porter Jr. have allowed the Nuggets to remain similarly formidable even with the loss of Murray. They ended the season winning 13 of their last 18 games with a +5.3 point scoring margin, even though they gave their starters some rest in late games, and enter the playoffs as a team with Conference Finals upside.
However, the Trail Blazers enter the playoffs on an even higher note, with solid evidence this is their true level. Once Damian Lillard returned from late-season injury, the Trail Blazers finished 10-2 with a +13.2 point scoring margin in their first extended period all season that the team was fully healthy. The core of this team made the conference finals in 2019 and was one of the hottest teams in the bubble in 2020 before running into the eventual champion Lakers in the playoffs, and they seem poised to potentially mount an extended run this postseason. In a wide-open bracket, they have a better chance to emerge than the current +5500 title odds credit them.
Pick: Trail Blazers to win series (-125); consideration as a long-shot flyer for championship winner (+5500)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns (best-of-7 first-round series)
Snellings: As Doug pointed out, the Suns have the ability to win this series. I'll go further and say they have a reasonable chance to represent the Western Conference in the Finals -- as long as they don't have to go through a fully healthy, in-form Lakers team. That is one of the biggest questions of the postseason -- how healthy are the Lakers and what should we expect from them? What they showed in their play-in victory was a team that was still possibly hurting, and definitely rusty. As such, I think a strong Suns team with home-court advantage has a good chance to push them to the brink, if not over. On the NBA page, I picked the Lakers to win in seven games. Here, I can predict the Suns to win -- with the series handicap.
Pick: Suns +1.5 games to win series (-150)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat (best-of-7 first-round series)
Snellings: The Heat dealt with injuries and COVID-19 absences all season, including 20 missed games by Butler. In the last 11 games that Butler played, the Heat went 9-2 with a +6.3 point scoring margin that could reasonably be more indicative of their actual level entering the postseason. They also beat the Bucks pretty handily in the bubble playoffs last season and, as Tyler points out, they have an excellent core in Butler and Bam Adebayo to give them confidence this time around as well.
However, the Bucks feel like a team that just used the regular season as an extended preseason, in which they were tinkering with their squad to best prepare them for the postseason. The Bucks had a combined +9.4 point scoring margin during the past two seasons, but struggled with two specific issues in the playoffs: an over-reliance on Giannis Antetokounmpo on offense, and at the other end of the court their defense didn't switch enough. The Raptors in 2019 and the Heat in 2020 both exploited these weaknesses to put them out of the playoffs.
As a result, Jrue Holiday was brought in during the offseason and P.J. Tucker mid-season, and the coaching staff adjusted their strategies all season to address these specific deficits. The end result was a Bucks team that wasn't as dominant in the regular season, with a +5.9 point scoring margin, but one poised to be much stronger in the playoffs. The Bucks could have avoided the Heat in the first round by resting their players for their game last week, when a Heat win would've likely earned them a higher seed. The Bucks chose to face their nemesis, and I think they're confident that they're ready this time around.
Pick: Bucks -1.5 games (-135)
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks (best-of-7 first-round series)
Snellings: These are two of the hotter teams of the second half of the season, and both continue to fly under the national radar. The Hawks made a midseason coaching change to Nate McMillan on March 1, and after that finished the season 27-11 with a +4.4 point scoring margin. Over that same stretch, the Knicks went 23-14 with a +3.6 point scoring margin, but finished even hotter by winning 16 of their last 20 with a +6.2 point scoring margin. The Knicks won all three regular-season meetings, but they only played once during the McMillan era, a game the Hawks were winning handily early but lost in overtime after Trae Young sprained his ankle and left early.
Overall, the Knicks win with a strong defense (fourth in the NBA with 107.8 defensive rating) and a punishing, if somewhat inefficient, inside-out offense built around Julius Randle. The Hawks appear to be their mirrors, with a top-10 offense (114.3 offensive rating, ninth in the NBA) and a lesser defense. However, the Hawks' defense improved under McMillan, and they are actually a better rebounding team than the Knicks on the strength of the understated interior dominance of Clint Capela.
The Hawks have the stronger perimeter game, as well as an advantage in the middle, which ultimately should help them win the series. Since they're the lower seed, if they win the series I think it's likely they'd do so at home in Game 6 after stealing an early game on the road.
Pick: Hawks to win series (-130); Hawks -1.5 games to win series (+180)
Thursday's best bets
Game 5: Bucks 123, Hawks 112
Bucks lead series 3-2
Fulghum: With the expectation that Giannis Antetokounmpo misses at least one game, Jrue Holiday (and Khris Middleton) are going to absorb the lion's share of the usage left on the floor with the Greek Freak on the bench. Holiday has lower, more reasonable thresholds to clear, so I'll side with those bets in a crucial Game 5 matchup at home.
Pick: Holiday over 21.5 points, Holiday over 36.5 PAR
Snellings: This series...wow. With my expectation that Trae Young will play in game 5 but Giannis will not, I don't have the Bucks as the favorites in this game. They could win if Middleton turns in one of his 40-ish point masterpieces and the rest of the squad plays over their heads, but with the level the Hawks have played in this postseason I'd favor them over a Giannis-less Bucks team, even on the road. Interestingly, with Giannis out, I expect the Bucks to be both weaker on defense and more free-firing on offense, so I see this as a potentially high-scoring affair.
Pick: Hawks +2.5, over 216
Wednesday's best bets
Game 6: Suns 130, Clippers 103
Suns win series 4-2
Fortenbaugh: Despite a 62-point first quarter and the fastest pace metric of the entire series (97.5), Game 5 still only eclipsed the closing total by fewer than seven points. Throw in the fact that the Clippers shot a ridiculous 54.8 percent from the field (their fourth-best of 18 playoff games) and I'm willing to bet that Game 5 was the outlier in an otherwise consistently low-scoring series.
Pick: Under 215
Snellings: We knew the Clippers were going to come out hard in Game 5 with their backs against the wall. They've built a legacy as the team that won't give up and will scrap to the end. The Suns, on the other hand, came out with much lower intensity, as coach Monty Williams pointed out in the postgame press conference. But for Game 6, despite the Suns still holding a 3-2 series advantage, I expect both teams to come out with their hair on fire. The Suns absolutely do not want to have to come home for a Game 7 after having squandered a 3-1 series lead, and Chris Paul will be a very vocal presence to emphasize that.
And, given the respective health of the two teams, when both teams are locked in the Suns should be the better team. As Joe pointed out, the Clippers were on fire in Game 5. I expect the Suns to have a much stronger defensive performance in Game 6, forcing the Clippers to shoot over and through consistent contests, making this the type of defensive struggle we got the last time this series was in Los Angeles.
Pick: Suns -1, under 215
Kezirian: Game 5 began with a weird vibe thanks to the late scratch of Ivica Zubac, and I just think the Phoenix game plan was turned upside down with the Clippers turning to small ball without their starting center. Regardless, the Clips have been the tougher team in the series and demonstrated a relentless approach all postseason. However, I expect Phoenix to respond with more energy from the tip coming off a loss. Paul should set the tone for the entire locker room, and I expect the Suns to start strong
Pick: Suns first quarter pick 'em (-115)
Fulghum: Paul George has been phenomenal in this series. It doesn't appear Kawhi Leonard is likely to play this series, so George is assuming a lion's share of the responsibility for the Clippers -- and he's delivering. He has averaged 14.7 rebounds and 6.8 assists over the last three games, while playing no less than 41 minutes in any contest. At home and with the season on the line once again, expect George to have a full stat sheet.
Pick: George over 16.5 rebounds + assists (-120)
Tuesday's best bets
Game 4: Hawks 110, Bucks 88
Series tied 2-2
Fortenbaugh: Atlanta's offensive rating plummets from 111.2 to 90.2 without Trae Young on the floor, while its defensive rating surges from 111.4 to 96.9. Essentially, and to the surprise of absolutely nobody, the Hawks become a much worse offensive team but significantly better defensive unit when Young exits the floor. This is important to keep in mind, given the sprained ankle the Oklahoma product sustained at the end of the third quarter of Game 3. Throw in the slower pace at which these two teams have been playing throughout the course of this series and I'll wager half a unit on the under in Game 4.
Pick: Under 221
Snellings: The Hawks and Bucks battled throughout Game 3, with the Hawks as the aggressors that would burst out to leads and the Bucks as the hunters that would then track them back down to even. That pattern continued through the first three quarters and even into the fourth, before the Bucks finally overtook them and pulled away down the stretch. Two very important things happened to trigger that last breakaway: Young suffered a bone bruise that slowed him after he returned to the game, and Khris Middleton started wielding a blowtorch that allowed him to outscore the entire Hawks team 20-17 in the fourth quarter. The Bucks were thus able to win a second consecutive game and retake home court advantage.
Key takeaways moving forward: 1) The Bucks now have the wind at their backs. In these playoffs, when in tense situations, they've at times lost their shooting strokes and had to turn the game into defensive slugfests in order to compete. But when they've been comfortable, the shots have flowed and the team has gotten much more formidable, which has led to some blowout victories. 2) The times in this series where the Hawks have controlled have been fueled almost entirely by Young being unguardable. His ability to use picks out top and either blur to the paint and break down the defense or knock down rainmaking 3-pointers is what gives the Hawks a puncher's chance. But we saw at the end of Game 3 that if Young lacks explosion it can really limit what he and the team can do offensively. He's currently listed as questionable to play on Tuesday. I'd be surprised if he sat, but even if he plays, will he have enough explosiveness to be Ice Trae for four quarters against an aggressive Bucks defense? And as Joe points out, if he's unable to do that, it's difficult to see the Hawks' offense scoring enough to really compete with a relaxed Bucks squad.
Pick: Bucks -6, under 221
Fulghum: With Young at less than 100 percent and Bogdan Bogdanovic also compromised, the Hawks offense is in bad shape. Milwaukee has been one of the best defensive teams in this postseason, and they have the opportunity here to take a hold of the series with a strong defensive effort vs. a banged up Hawks squad.
Pick: Hawks team total under 106.5
Monday's best bets
Game 5: Clippers 116, Suns 102
Suns lead series 3-2
Fortenbaugh: All aboard the under train. The scoring in this series has decreased in each contest, from 234 points in Game 1 to 207 points in Game 2 to 198 points in Game 3 to 164 points in Game 4. Yet, the oddsmakers have only adjusted the total a few points, from a high of 222.5 in Game 2 to a low of 214.5 for Game 5. Pay particular attention to Games 3 and 4, which featured an average pace of 90.8, as those are the only two games in this series in which Chris Paul has played. To put that pace metric into perspective, the New York Knicks finished the regular season with a pace metric of 96.3, which ranked slowest in the NBA. This series has been even slower than that.
Pick: Under 214.5
Snellings: Choo-choo! I'm definitely aboard that "under" train with Joe, especially in a closeout game. I'm expecting the Clippers to fight tooth and nail and Patrick Beverley to be inside Devin Booker's skin the entire game. The bigger question, to me, is whether the Suns can close them out. They're at home, withPaul back in the swing of things and Booker getting used to life after the broken nose. Given Paul's history of losing playoff series after his team leads 3-1, you have to feel that the Suns will be fully focused on getting the job done as quickly as possible.
With that said, in this series, when the Suns win, the games are close. That's why, despite the Suns leading 3-1, the Clippers have actually outscored them by three points overall in the series. The spread is 5.5 points, but only one of the Suns' wins has been by more than that - and that win was by six points. The Suns may very well win this game, but the Clippers will likely make them earn it. I'll take them with the points.
Pick: Clippers +5.5, under 214.5
Kezirian: Anyone who watched Game 4 understands the thought process. Both teams look fatigued, but I genuinely think the Clips have hit a wall. This will be their 18th game in 38 nights - the last handful without Kawhi Leonard. That is taking its toll on Paul George and other key scorers. Additionally, Paul has been slowing the pace considerably, often walking the ball up the court after a made Clippers bucket.
Pick: Under 214.5
Marks: Stick a fork in 'em! The Clippers are done. Los Angeles has played 14 games in 26 days, their star player is out, and Paul George (who is averaging 40 minutes a game) has no more legs with which to shoot. Deandre Ayton has been the dominating force throughout this series, and posted 22 rebounds in his last game. Ivica Zubac is the only player the Clippers have to contest Ayton -- and played 35 minutes in Game 4. The Suns are one game away from advancing to the Championship, and the the Clippers are out of gas, so this game has the potential to become a blowout in the fourth quarter. Lay the points!
Pick: Suns -5.5, Zubac double-double (-120), Reggie Jackson over 3.5 rebounds (-105), Ayton over 11.5 rebounds (+105), Mikal Bridges over 4.5 rebounds (-105), George under 2.5 3-pointers (+120)
Sunday's best bets
Game 3: Bucks 113, Hawks 102
Bucks lead series 2-1
Snellings: Do you remember, back when he was with the Warriors, Kevin Durant was being challenged by Patrick Beverley in a series, and he gave the "You know who I am?" press conference? To me, that's what Game 2 of the Bucks-Hawks series felt like -- the Bucks looking at the Hawks, the rest of the world, and themselves, and delivering the reminder...you know who we are.
In the first round of the playoffs, against the Heat, the Bucks had a hard-fought Game 1, which they barely won at the buzzer, and then they dominated Game 2 and the rest of the series for a sweep. The Heat were a really good team, and the pressure of the situation allowed them to challenge in Game 1, then the Bucks recalled themselves and it was never close after. In the scheme of things, this year's Hawks are more analogous to the Heat -- a good team that steps up to the plate and won't beat themselves, and if no one meets their energy could even make the Finals -- than they are to the Nets team the Bucks just eased their way past. Now that the Bucks seem to have realized this as well, they should be favored to go into Atlanta and take Game 3 in a convincing manner.
Pick: Bucks -4, under 224
Saturday's best bets
Game 4: Suns 84, Clippers 80
Suns lead series 3-1
Fortenbaugh: I'm betting on the law of averages in Game 4. Phoenix shot a pathetic 38 percent from the field in Game 3, which was the club's worst shooting performance in 13 playoff games and third-worst shooting display in 85 total games played this season. In the process, Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to convert just 10 of 40 field-goal attempts. Do we really see that happening for a second game in a row? Keep in mind the fact that the Suns are 16-7 against the spread when coming off a loss this season (regular season and playoffs combined).
Pick: Suns -1
Snellings: The Clippers continued their amazing tendency to win Game 3 of a series after losing the first two games. In each of the first two rounds, they also went on to win Game 4 as well. A lot of elements went into what happened in Game 3. For the Suns, Paul returned from a long layoff with a rusty game, Booker was fresh off a broken nose and getting used to playing with a mask, and the red-hot Cameron Payne sprained his ankle four minutes into the game. The Clippers also made a lot of adjustments, particularly defensively, and played at a high level at home. Ivika Zubac started at center and played Deandre Ayton to a standstill. And the Clippers just played like the more desperate team, winning most of the hustle plays on their way to a double-digit victory.
For Game 4, I'd expect Paul to be more settled in and Booker to start getting more comfortable as well. But we don't know yet whether Payne will be on the court, which is an important factor. Given the Clippers' patterns and feistiness at home, in addition to the Suns working through question marks, I think the Clippers have a good chance to pull out another defensive-oriented game on Friday.
Pick: Clippers +1, under 219
Friday's best bets
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks (-7.5, 226)
Game 2: Bucks 125, Hawks 91 (Series tied 1-1)
Kezirian: The situational spot screams for a play on Milwaukee, but I am going to ride with the Hawks. I just think the market continues to dismiss Atlanta and has not properly assessed their current worth. This is a very good team, and Trae Young is playing extremely well. Plus, Mike Budenholzer has giant limitations and I doubt he will make the appropriate adjustments to limit Young, while Nate McMillan continues to push all the right buttons. Finally, the Bucks defense has implemented a philosophy this season of protecting the rim and allowing three-point shots. It does not make a ton of sense in this current era and, consequently the Bucks were poor in three-pointers allowed this season. I feel that trait alone will allow the Hawks to cover again.
Pick: Hawks +7.5
Fortenbaugh: Young's points prop for Game 1 closed at 28.5 before the NBA's newest sensation torched the Bucks for 48 points in a 116-113 upset. For Game 2, bookmakers have adjusted Young's points prop to 30.5 in anticipation of the over money likely to flow in from the betting public. With this in mind, I'm going the other way and betting the under for two key reasons. First, Young shot 50 percent from the floor in Game 1, which was his third-best shooting performance in 13 playoff games. Do we see that happening again? Second, the Bucks will no doubt make some key adjustments defensively when it comes to how they guard Young. Remember something else: Everybody loved the Game 2 over on the points props for both Devin Booker and Paul George after what they did in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. How did that work out?
Pick: Young under 30.5 points
Fulghum: Game 1 featured 229 points, and that was with Ice Trae going off for 48, Jrue Holiday netting 33 and John Collins posting 23. All three drastically outperformed their market expectation. Expect some individual regression for each in Game 2. On top of that, the Bucks -- wanting to avoid an 0-2 hole -- will likely try to get more physical with the Hawks and slow things down, much like they did with the Nets.
Pick: Under 226
Snellings: It continues to surprise me that so many still don't see the Hawks as legitimate contenders. They had the best record in the Eastern Conference after Nate McMillan took over as head coach in March, manhandled a tough Knicks squad in the first round and then defeated the top seed in the East in the second round. While I still think the Bucks win the series, the seven-point spread was too large for Game 1. And the 7.5-point spread for Game 2 is too large as well. Even if the Bucks hit back hard, as expected, the Hawks have shown they can take a punch and remain in it until the end. And as we saw against the Nets, even when the Bucks win must-have games, they often do so in close, competitive fashion.
For the Bucks to win, they need to get a "home" performance from Khris Middleton. Prior to Game 1, Middleton was averaging 27.2 PPG on 53% shooting and 50% from 3-point range at home and 20 PPG on 37% shooting and 29% on 3-pointers on the road. But in Game 1, at home, Middleton turned in a "road" performance with 15 points on 6-for-23 shooting, including 0-for-9 on 3s. I look for him to bounce back in a major way in this must-have game. I also look for the Bucks to get a lot more physical on defense and to play a lot more of the switching defense they ended the game with, as opposed to the drop coverage of most of the game that let Young go off.
Pick: Hawks +7.5, under 226, Middleton over 23.5 points (-115)
Marks: The Hawks are a bad matchup for the Bucks and Mike Budenholzer is going to have to make some changes in order to win tonight. The focus needs to be on slowing down Young, because there is no stopping him. Young's floaters are daggers and I anticipate that Giannis Antetokounmpo will concentrate on Young defensively, especially in the paint to counter with his length near the rim. That in turn will open up looks and rebounds for both Collins and Clint Capela, from whom I expect huge contributions tonight.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a shell of himself of late as he deals with his knee injury, so I don't expect much production from him. Meanwhile, the Bucks will need more offensive firepower, and I can see Bryn Forbes getting more playing time. The Bucks will win, but the Hawks cover.
Pick: Hawks +7.5, Collins double-double (+115), Capela over 13.5 rebounds (-105), Bogdanovic under 14.5 points + rebounds (-110), Forbes over 5.5 points (-125)
June 24 best bets
West Finals Game 3: Phoenix Suns (-1, 218.5) at LA Clippers
Game 3: Clippers 106, Suns 92 (Suns lead series 2-1)
Snellings: The Clippers have made an art form of going down two games to none, then surging back to win the next two games and get back into the series. If the same teams that played Games 1 and 2 were coming together for Game 3, I'd expect that pattern to continue. The big question, of course, is whether Chris Paul will be back. There is reported optimism in Suns camp that he'll be back as soon as this game, which would give them another dimension and make them much more formidable, especially on the road, where the role players are typically not as strong as at home without a floor general like Paul to help create shots for them.
The unknown makes this difficult. I'll lean toward the Clippers to bounce back, because even if Paul does play he may have some rust to work off. And the Clippers are fighting for their playoff lives after an incredibly crushing loss in Game 2. And both teams struggled from the field last game, an unusual event in their recent days of hot shooting, so I'll expect a scoring bounce back Thursday.
Pick: Clippers +1, over 218.5
Fortenbaugh: Kawhi Leonard's knee injury created a scoring void that Reggie Jackson has been more than happy to fill. In 11 playoff games with Leonard on the floor, Jackson was averaging only 12.5 points on 10.9 shots per game while eclipsing 36 minutes played just twice. Contrast that with the four games Leonard has missed, as Jackson is averaging a healthy 23 points on 16.2 shots per game while topping 36 minutes in all four contests. For those who watch "Daily Wager," yes, I'm chapped that this prop missed in Game 2 (because of a late line move), as Jackson had 19 points with 7:55 remaining in the game and failed to go over. Consider this a spite bet.
Pick: Jackson over 19.5 points (-105)
Marks: The "Floor General" should be back in action, doing what he does best -- creating more organized ball and distribute. The last time Paul faced the Clippers, he played 32 minutes and put up 28 points and 10 assists. I see him feeding Deandre Ayton all night long.
There is no Kawhi Leonard again in Game 3, which means Jackson should post another 40-minute game. He has become the Robin to Paul's Batman. Jackson is averaging four rebounds per game without Kawhi on the court. In Game 1, he had six rebounds and he had five in Game 2. With Paul back, I expected better defense from the Suns, which means more missed shots for the Clippers, which equals more rebounding opportunities.
However, my favorite prop bet tonight involves Ivica Zubac. The Clippers need to play big boy ball to defend Ayton, so I expect Zubac to play at least 30 minutes tonight. He played 34 minutes last game and finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds. Nicolas Batum is not 100 percent and DeMarcus Cousins plays horrible defense.
Pick: Paul over 8.5 assists (-140), Jackson over 3.5 rebounds (-135), Zubac over 7.5 rebounds, Ayton double-double (-140)
June 23 best bets
Eastern Finals Game 1: Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks (-7, 226.5)
Hawks 116, Bucks 113 (Hawks lead series 1-0)
Fortenbaugh: The regular-season Bucks featured a very different profile from what we're seeing out of postseason Milwaukee. During the regular season, Giannis Antetokounmpo and company averaged 120.1 points per game (first in the NBA) while allowing 114.2 points per game (2nd in the league) at an average pace of 102.85 (second in the NBA). Contrast that with 11 playoff contests in which the Bucks are scoring just 107.9 points per game while allowing 102.3 points per game at an average pace of 97.6. Throw in Atlanta's newfound defensive prowess following the Nate McMillan hiring and I'm betting Game 1 stays under the total of 226.5.
Pick: Under 226.5
Fulghum: The Hawks keep continuing to impress me, so I'm finally going to join the bandwagon. Atlanta has won each of its first two Game 1 road tests (107-105 in New York and 128-124 in Philadelphia) as the underdog. Seven points is just too much for the way Trae Young and the Hawks are playing. Young went for 32 in the Game 1 win over the Knicks and 35 in the Game 1 win over the 76ers.
Pick: Hawks +7, Young over 28.5 points
Snellings: The Bucks and Hawks are fresh off two seven-game series, but they did get multiple days off to recover before Wednesday's tipoff. As such, both teams should come in at a sweet spot of playing at a high level but with fresh legs as well. The Hawks beat the top-seeded 76ers straight up, on the road, and it wasn't a fluke. Their outside-in offense can be very potent, and coach Nate McMillan has them playing strong defense as well. As Joe alluded to, the Bucks' offense has been lower-scoring in the postseason, even against a Nets team not expected to be very strong on defense. The Hawks have a solid chance to be very competitive in this game, so the 7-point spread seems a bit large.
On the Bucks' side, this is a home game, which has proven to be a huge deal for Khris Middleton. In the playoffs thus far, Middleton is averaging 27.2 PPG on 53 percent shooting and 50 percent on 3-pointers at home and 20 PPG on 37 percent shooting and 29 percent on 3s on the road. "Home Middleton", against a Hawks defense missing its best wing defender in De'Andre Hunter, has a good chance to hit the over on points scored. The Bucks are also 5-0 at home this postseason, which could bode well for a potential win, but I expect the game to be competitive.
Pick: Hawks +7, under 226.5, Middleton over 24.5 points (-115)
June 22 best bets
Western Conference Finals Game 2: LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns (-6, 224)
Suns 104, Clippers 103 (Suns lead series 2-0)
Fortenbaugh: Game 1 closed with a total of 220 points and soared over thanks to Phoenix's impressive 120-114 victory. As a result, the Game 2 total has been bumped north four points to 224, which has me itching to fire on the under. Sunday's series opener featured two teams that combined to shoot over 40 percent from deep and over 50 percent from the floor. I don't see that happening again, as two of the league's better defenses make the necessary adjustments to compliment their below-average pace metrics.
Pick: Under 224
Snellings: Like Joe pointed out, Game 1 had a lot more shooting and scoring than one might expect based on the caliber of defenses involved. However, it should be noted that the Clippers (No. 1, 41.1% 3-point percentage) and Suns (No. 7, 37.8 3-point percentage) both ranked among the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA this season, and both are missing key perimeter defenders in Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard. Also, the Clippers shot 43.3% from behind the arc and 50.1% from the field for their entire series against the Jazz, while the Suns shot 42.5% from deep and 51.6% from the field for their series against the Nuggets. As such, the hot shooting performances from Game 1 could very well be replicated in Game 2.
The other takeaway I took from the series opener was that these two teams were pretty evenly matched. The game was close throughout, with some lead changes each way, and it took Devin Booker's monster fourth quarter for the Suns to ultimately pull away for their six-point win. While the Suns certainly have the capacity to win Game 2 as well, the Clippers also have the ability to keep the game competitive, if not steal a win outright. According to ESPN BPI, the Suns should be favored in this game - but only by 2.9 points.
Pick: Clippers +6, over 224
Kezirian: This line does not make a whole lot of sense, unless Chris Paul plays. However, that seems unlikely. The Clippers faced a horrible situational spot in Game 1, coming off back-to-back grueling wins against the Jazz and then traveling to Phoenix to face a well-rested Suns squad. We saw the Clips fatigue down the stretch, even though Ty Lue did what he could by using 10 players. Game 2 will have a much more regular feel, and I think this comes down to the wire.
I realize the Suns have won eight straight playoff games but I do not think the point spread should have increased from four to six between these first two games in the series. The NFL has popularized the concept of key numbers in sports betting but the NBA also has its valuable spreads. In the last five years, including the postseason, 5.6% of games were decided by exactly four and six points each and 6.4% were decided by exactly five points. This point spread increase is quite valuable, especially when I believe the Clips are a live underdog.
Pick: Clippers +6
Fulghum: With Paul and Leonard presumed out for Game 2, I think we can assume much of the same as in Game 1. George and Booker should dominate the basketball again, with minutes north of 40 and usage rates north of 35%. Paul George took 15 3-point shots in Game 1. Booker scored an easy 40 on just 29 shots (51.7% shooting).
Pick: George over 3.5 made 3-pointers, Booker over 30.5 points
Fortenbaugh: With Leonard on the shelf, Reggie Jackson has become the Robin to George's Batman. In 11 playoff games with a healthy Leonard, Jackson was averaging 12.5 points on 10.9 shots per game while eclipsing 36 minutes in just two of 11 contests. However, in the three games since Leonard went down with a knee injury, Jackson's numbers have skyrocketed to 24.3 points on 16.6 shots per game while playing 36 or more minutes in all three matchups. I expect that trend to continue tonight in Phoenix.
Pick: Jackson over 18.5 points
June 20 best bets
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (-7, 216.5)
Game 7: Hawks 103, 76ers 96 (Hawks win series 4-3)
Snellings: Game 7s are typically tough, defensive-minded affairs. The 76ers are the top seed, and they're playing at home. They've put together stretches of dominance in the series that show that a blowout is possible, even in a Game 7. With that said, the Hawks have shown remarkable resilience in taking the 76ers' best punches and bouncing back with runs of their own.
On the injury front, Joel Embiid has been playing on an injured knee all series, and outside of one stretch in the second half of Game 4 has been largely dominant. The bigger health question on Sunday may be Bogdan Bogdanovic, who was forced to miss the end of Game 6 and is questionable. Bogdanovic is a key player for the Hawks, and it will hurt them if he sits or is limited.
Ultimately, after all of the strong play on both sides, it's hard to imagine that this game would descend into a noncompetitive affair. Whoever wins is likely to have to earn it in the fourth quarter, so a seven-point margin seems too large.
Pick: Hawks +7, under 216.5
LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns (-4, 221.5)
Game 1: Suns 120, Clippers 114 (Suns lead series 1-0)
Snellings: It is currently unknown whether Chris Paul (COVID-19 protocol) or Kawhi Leonard (knee) will be available for this game, but I'm not planning to see either. The other major dynamic here is that the Clippers are coming off yet another war of attrition against the Jazz, which just ended Friday, while the Suns have been off for a week after sweeping the Nuggets. Much like the first game of the Clippers-Jazz series last round, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Clippers come in much sharper as the Suns work the rust off, but then for the Suns to finish stronger as the Clippers fatigue.
As far as the matchup, the Clippers sans Leonard have more limitations than the Suns sans Paul. Terrence Mann and Reggie Jackson were wonderful lieutenants to Paul George for the Clippers in Games 5 and 6, but they were helped by the Jazz defense being overly predicated on Rudy Gobert's rim protection. They exploited that unmercifully to create mismatches and wide open shots from the perimeter. The Suns, on the other hand, don't have that weakness on defense. Deandre Ayton is more mobile than Gobert, but more importantly the Suns' forwards and perimeter players are strong defenders in their own right that help close down defensive gaps. We saw that last round when the Nuggets' perimeter options were fresh off torching the Trail Blazers but were unable to get nearly the same looks against the Suns.
Meanwhile, while Paul was arguably the MVP of the second round of the playoffs, the Suns have a strong backup option in Cameron Payne. In both the regular season and the playoffs, the Suns' scoring differential is about +9 per 100 possessions with Payne on the court. The Suns are still able to run the lion share of their sets, with Devin Booker taking on a larger role to keep the team in balance.
Pick: Suns -4, under 221.5, Clippers first half +2 (-110)
June 19 best bets
Milwaukee Bucks at Brooklyn Nets (-1, 215)
Game 7: Bucks 115, Nets 111 OT (Bucks win series 4-3)
Fulghum: The under is 5-0-1 in this series so far. Game 1 opened with a total of 239, and here we are looking at a Game 7 that is 24 points lower than that -- and it's still not small enough.
James Harden has returned and played 40-plus minutes in each game. Because of his balky hamstring, Harden has turned into strictly a 3-point shooter on offense. Of the 19 field-goal attempts he has taken in Games 5 and 6, 74% of them were from deep. Harden should play 40-plus minutes again in Game 7, and any time he lets it go it will likely be from deep.
Pick: Under 215, Harden over 2.5 made 3-pointers
Kezirian: Sometimes a narrative surfaces and provides an opportunity to find value. I think that's exactly what we have with Giannis Antetokounmpo and his 3-point shooting. First and foremost, he did not attempt a single 3-pointer in his last game. Obviously the criticism has become a factor, and he put forth an efficient and dominating performance. I think we see a similar approach in Game 7, but even if he does shoot from behind the arc, he has only hit two 3-pointers or more in two of his 10 playoff games
Pick: Antetokounmpo under 1.5 made 3-pointers (-160)
June 18 best bets
Game 6: Philadelphia 76ers (-3, 221.5) at Atlanta Hawks
Game 6: 76ers 104, Hawks 99 (Series tied 3-3)
Snellings: This series has epitomized the unpredictable nature of this postseason. The 76ers have looked unstoppable for large swathes of all five games, yet somehow the Hawks are up three games to two despite Joel Embiid playing at a high level in every game. The Hawks have shown they can take the 76ers' best punch, and they have both the ability and the confidence to hit back. They're never out of any game and, more importantly, they believe that to be the case. The Hawks have the chance to close this series out, at home, in six games. While I fully expect the 76ers to play an outstanding game, I did pick the Hawks in six before the series began. As such, how could I not take them with the points with the chance for them to fulfill my prediction?
Pick: Hawks +3, over 221.5
Utah Jazz (-2, 219.5) at LA Clippers
Game 6: Clippers 131, Jazz 119 (Clippers win series 4-2)
Kezirian: Hats off to the Clippers for an impressive win without Kawhi Leonard, and their depth, along with Paul George, may find a way to get it done again. However, I am siding with the Jazz. The Clips played loose and with nothing to lose in Game 5, but I expect the Jazz to respond. Also, they figure to shoot better than they did in the second half (3-for-24 from 3-point territory). Plus, the Clips started doubling Donovan Mitchell around halfcourt. I anticipate Quin Snyder to make the proper adjustment and replace Royce O'Neale with a better shooter at the top of the key. Thus, I expect a strong start from the Jazz in a desperate situation.
Pick: Jazz -2, Jazz -.5 first quarter
Snellings: I agree with Doug, that the Jazz are likely to put their absolute best foot forward in this game. But the Clippers have the chance to clinch, at home, and make it to the first conference finals in team history. The Jazz have clearly been missing point guard Mike Conley's table-setting all series, and in both games in Los Angeles the Jazz's non-Mitchell shooters have particularly struggled. Conley's status for Game 6 is unknown, but he has missed each of the first five games with a recurring hamstring injury that would seemingly make it unlikely for him to return at full speed. Plus, Mitchell has obviously been struggling with his own ankle injury and showed definite signs of a lack of mobility in Game 5. Even with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, Paul George and Reggie Jackson are playing at a high enough level that the Clippers are in prime position to win this game and fulfil another of my pre-series picks (Clippers in six).
Pick: Clippers +2, over 219.5
June 17 best bets
Game 6: Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5, 220)
Game 6: Bucks 104, Nets 89 (Series tied 3-3)
Fulghum: Giannis Antetokounmpo has been pretty consistent scoring the basketball in this series. He's scored 34 points in three games, 33 in another, and had one outlier performance with 18 points in Game 2.
The point prop is rock solid, so I'll pivot to the rebounds-and-assists prop, which I think is just a bit too high. Giannis has yet to crack 16 rebounds and assists in a single game this series. He's averaging just 15.2 rebounds and assists per game this series so I think there's room for error here.
Pick: Antetokounmpo under 18.5 rebounds and assists (-125)
Kezirian: With trepidation, I am backing the Bucks. Obviously we know the issues in Game 5's collapse. I am not entirely sure Mike Budenholzer will make all the right adjustments, but I am a big believer in situational handicapping. The Bucks figure to be the healthier and more desperate team, so I will bank on Milwaukee responding with a solid performance and just hope that Kevin Durant and Jeff Green cannot repeat their performances from Tuesday.
Returning from his hamstring injury, James Harden scored just five points while making only one of his 10 field goal attempts. I just don't see how that significantly improves after 45 minutes and only one day off. He's a former MVP and an elite athlete, but asking him to score 17 points feels like too much.
Pick: Bucks -5.5, Harden under 16.5 points
June 16 best bets
Game 5: Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (-6, 223.5)
Hawks 109, 76ers 106 (Hawks leads series 3-2)
Snellings: This game, like the series, swings so much on the unknown of Joel Embiid's health. The 76ers were dominant in Games 2 and 3 and the first half of Game 4, behind Embiid's excellent play. But he was clearly limited in the second half of Game 4, and the Hawks were able to come back to win and even the series. Embiid has reportedly been dealing with a partially torn meniscus, and it's unclear what we can expect from him moving forward.
Meanwhile, the Hawks continue to step up in their first playoffs exposure as a team. Trae Young continues to accomplish scoring and assist feats only previously accomplished by the greats, and the Hawks continue to show that they can produce enough to make runs and counter-runs, even against the powerful 76ers. With Embiid's status uncertain and such a wide spread, the Hawks have a reasonable chance to keep this game close or perhaps even steal it like they did Game 1.
Pick: Hawks +6
Kezirian: This series is incredibly intriguing, and the Hawks feel like live 'dogs, given the health of Embiid. The big man does not look as healthy as he did earlier in the series, and with only one day off, I do not expect him to look much better. However, while his offense suffered in Game 4, his defense was still strong. I am riding the under, as I expect Philly to play its signature strong defense and be limited offensively.
Pick: Under 223.5
Fulghum: Role players generally perform better at home in the playoffs and Seth Curry especially likes the home rims at Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers sharpshooter is connecting at a 57-percent clip from deep in this series. At home, he's even better. Curry was 10-of-15 from three in games 1 and 2. Curry also benefits from being the fourth concern in the Hawks defensive game plan behind Embiid, Harris, and Simmons (driving the basketball).
Pick: Seth Curry over 14.5 points, Seth Curry over 2.5 3-pt FG
LA Clippers at Utah Jazz (-2.5, 222)
Clippers 119, Jazz 111 (Clippers lead series 3-2)
Snellings: The Jazz continue to miss Mike Conley Jr., who is currently listed as questionable again ahead of Game 5. He's the table setter, and without him, the team has struggled to create shots for anyone outside of superstar Donovan Mitchell. Game 5 will again be in Utah, where the Jazz had mixed results, as the non-Mitchell team shot 21-of-61 (34.4%) in Game 1 but 27-of-37 (57.4%) in Game 2. The Jazz won both of those games, in large part because Mitchell was outstanding in both. He has scored at least 30 points in every game in the series, and if either Conley is able to play or the role players perform more similarly to Game 2, the Jazz have a solid shot on Wednesday. However, in the four games to date, the non-Mitchell Jazz have only shot over 42% from the field that one time, in Game 2.
The Clippers, meanwhile, seem to have settled down and are playing some of their best ball, as they've settled into the series. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have just become one of only a handful of duos in NBA history to score 30-plus points each in consecutive games. The Clippers have been the definition of inconsistent this postseason, but they have shown they can play as well on the road as at home. And with Conley's availability still in question, they have as good a chance as the Jazz to win this game.
Despite both teams being strong defensively, points haven't been hard to come by this series. In the four games, the teams have totaled 221, 228, 238 and 222 points scored, respectively. Given the over/under line at 222, those scores would tend toward the over.
Pick: Clippers +2.5, over 222
June 15 best bets
Milwaukee Bucks (-3, 219) at Brooklyn Nets
Game 5: Nets 114, Bucks 108 (Nets lead series 3-2)
Snellings: This series matched the top two scoring offenses in the NBA in terms of points per game, but thus far this series has been more about physical play and defense than easy scoring. With Kyrie Irving (ankle) joining James Harden (hamstring) on both out, it's possible that two of the better playmakers in the NBA could be sidelined for Game 5. In the last three games, these two teams have averaged 187.7 combined points per game and at least one of the teams has been held under 90 points three times during that stretch. It seems unlikely that the scoring will dramatically uptick for Game 5.
Pick: Under 219
Fulghum: Since Game 1, these two teams have averaged a meager 194.3 combined points per game. The production is just not matching the firepower that both teams usually have. Of course, Brooklyn's offense is severely hampered by the injuries to Harden and Irving. Milwaukee has found success in this series by playing as physically as the refs will allow, and I don't expect them to change that strategy as the series shifts back to Brooklyn.
Despite my belief that this game goes under, I can only bet Kevin Durant over his point prop because, 1) he's the greatest, most effortless scorer the universe has ever seen, and 2) where the hell else are buckets gonna come from for the Nets?
Pick: Under 219, Durant over 33.5 points
June 14 best bets
Game 4: Philadelphia 76ers (-3, 225.5) at Atlanta Hawks
Game 4: Hawks 103, 76ers 100 (Series tied 2-2)
Kezirian: I am going back to the well with Ben Simmons, but oddsmakers are now forcing us to pay some juice. We started this trend with plus money, but it still makes sense at -140. Simmons has not surpassed six rebounds in any of his five meetings with Atlanta this season and even both meetings last year. However, it's more about the defensive adjustment Doc Rivers made for the last two playoff games, assigning Simmons to guard Trae Young. In theory, Simmons is now farther away from the basket and often engaged on defense, limiting his rebounding potential. Additionally, the Hawks and Sixers have other capable rebounders to prevent Simmons from dominating the glass.
Pick: Simmons under 7.5 rebounds (-140)
Utah Jazz at LA Clippers (-4.5, 223.5)
Game 4: Clippers 118, Jazz 104 (Series tied 2-2)
Snellings: The Jazz have missed Mike Conley Jr. in this series, and in Game 3 it finally bit them. Donovan Mitchell's scorching series had been masking how much they miss Conley, who is their main floor general whose job it is to create offense for all of the other Jazz finishers besides Mitchell. In Games 1 and 3, the non-Mitchell Jazz combined to shoot 43-for-116 (37.1%) from the field. Mitchell still scored 30 points in Game 3 but wasn't the cheat code he had been in Utah, and that was enough for the Clippers to really get a handle on the Jazz at home. There has been no word on if Conley will play in Game 4. Mitchell is expected to play despite tweaking his injured ankle at the end of Game 3, but if Conley is out again and Mitchell is slowed, it seems likely the Clippers' defense should have another strong outing. And the Clippers have made a tradition now of going down 0-2 then roaring back, so this is their opportunity to get the series back on serve.
Pick: Clippers -4.5, under 223.5
June 13 best bets
Game 4: Brooklyn Nets (-1.5, 228.5) at Milwaukee Bucks
Game 4: Bucks 107, Nets 96 (Series tied 2-2)
Fulghum: Milwaukee's best chance of evening up this series is to follow a similar script to what worked in Game 3 -- physicality. The Bucks put pressure on the refs to determine how much contact was going to be allowed in Game 3, and the refs chose to let them play. Milwaukee would be smart to lean into that again versus dynamic scorers like Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. I think positive regression is coming for both teams shooting, no doubt, but I'm not sure it will be enough to account for the style of play we'll see.
Pick: Nets team total under 115.5
Phoenix Suns (-2, 222) at Denver Nuggets
Game 4: Suns 125, Nuggets 118 (Suns win series 4-0)
Fulghum: The Suns are 7-0 this postseason when Devin Booker cashes this prop. They're 0-2 when he does not. Monty Williams is playing Booker 40-plus minutes a night, which is crucial to racking up counting stats. The Suns want to land the kill shot and Booker is the guy to throw the punch.
Pick: Booker over 9.5 rebounds + assists
Snellings: The Suns have been consistently and clearly better than the Nuggets through the first three games, and there is little reason to expect that to change in Game 4. In Game 3, NBA MVP Nikola Jokic exploded for 32 points, 20 rebounds and 10 assists, and the Suns still controlled the game from start to finish and won by double figures. Michael Porter Jr. is reportedly hampered by a back injury and has gone 8-for-26 from the field in the last two games. The Suns' defense is strong top to bottom and has consistently been able to prevent the non-Jokic Nuggets from hurting them. The Suns are hungry, and with Chris Paul having fought through his shoulder injury, they would surely like to get this series completed so they could have the chance to heal up before the conference finals.
Pick: Suns -2, under 222
June 12 best bets
Game 3: Clippers 132, Jazz 106 (Jazz lead series 2-1)
Jazz lead series 2-0
Snellings: The Jazz played inspired basketball behind Donovan Mitchell to take their 2-0 lead, but the Clippers were very competitive in both games. Headed home, where their role players should do better and the Jazz's worse, I could agree with them having a good chance to get a win. But the current 4.5 spread seems a bit too large. According to ESPN BPI, the Jazz are still slight favorites on the road, with a 54.5% chance to win outright, in a game with a projected total of 220.1 points. I expect the Clippers to really ratchet up the defensive pressure in what should be a low-scoring, competitive contest.
Pick: Jazz +4.5, under 223
Kezirian: Despite battling injuries to two of their All-Stars all season, Utah finished with the NBA's best record and is the Western Conference betting favorite for good reason. The Jazz have demonstrated as much so far in this series, answering every challenge and knocking down key shots. However, a playoff series has an ebb and flow, and this situational spot screams for a Clippers win and cover. It's an angle all NBA bettors have learned over the years: The team trailing 2-0 is desperate, and the team with the series lead approaches the game with some complacency. Plus, we saw this very scenario in the last round against the Dallas Mavericks. Obviously the Jazz are better than Dallas, but the concept still applies. I believe in the Clippers' star power to make the necessary plays, and this is only accentuated if Mike Conley misses another game.
Pick: Clippers -4.5
June 11 best bets
Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5, 224.5) at Atlanta Hawks
Game 3: 76ers 127, Hawks 111 (76ers lead series 2-1)
Kezirian: I posted this pick for Game 2 and I am going right back to the well, although we no longer have plus money. Ben Simmons has not surpassed six rebounds in any of the four meetings with Atlanta this season. On Tuesday, he only grabbed three rebounds because his defensive assignment of Trae Young, which presumably keeps him farther away from the basket. Not only is Joel Embiid manning the paint for Philly -- as Clint Capela does not force him to the perimeter on offense -- but the Hawks have plenty of capable rebounders in Capela, John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic. I realize Simmons averaged 6.9 rebounds during the regular season, but this particular matchup skews to fewer than that.
Pick: Simmons under 7.5 rebounds (-115)
Snellings: The 76ers roared back to take Game 2, but the Hawks took several strong punches and kept coming back for more the entire game. Even with Trae Young having a pedestrian outing, the Hawks were right there until a fourth-quarter run put the game away. This bodes very well for them as they return to Atlanta, where they've won 13 straight games by an average of 14.4 points per game, including two playoffs wins. Embiid has been a monster, and the 76ers can score, but the Hawks have shown the offensive diversity to produce against even the toughest defenses.
Pick: Hawks +1.5, over 224.5
Marks: The 76ers won Game 2 in blowout fashion, shooting 53% from the field and making 12 of their 26 3-point shots. Embiid had a monster game, posting 40 points and 13 rebounds (not bad for a guy with a torn meniscus). When Embiid has nights like that, it opens looks up for everyone else, including Seth Curry, who is having a great postseason. Curry was 5-for-6 from 3-point range in 29 minutes Tuesday.
The Hawks needed role players to step up in Game 2 and will need more of the same in Game 3, so my money is on Kevin Huerter to deliver yet again, especially with De'Andre Hunter out for the rest of the postseason.
Picks: 76ers money line (-120), Curry over 2.5 3-pointers, Huerter over 11.5 points
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-1.5, 223)
Game 3: Suns 116, Nuggets 102 (Suns lead series 3-0)
Kezirian: Let's revisit a play I had in the first round. Michael Malone ripped his team after an embarrassing Game 4 loss in Portland. The players echoed that sentiment in the off day. Sure enough, the Nuggets responded and led by about 20 points in the first quarter. Well, here we are again. Denver just laid an egg in Phoenix and is returning home. So let's roll with the Nuggets in the first quarter. The Suns have been phenomenal this season in the first quarter, ranking fifth in point differential. However, the situational handicap necessitates a play on the Nuggets.
Pick: Nuggets -.5 first quarter (-120)
Snellings: The Suns controlled the final three halves played in Phoenix to take a 2-0 lead -- Nuggets head coach Michael Malone has called out his team's effort after each of the first two games -- leading to a win-or-else Game 3. Nikola Jokic was the only Nuggets player to play well offensively in Game 2, but he wasn't nearly enough. The role players that were so strong against the Trail Blazers last round have been largely invisible against the tougher Suns defense. If the Nuggets are to make this a series, that has to change for Game 3, and the home-court advantage makes it possible. Role players tend to play better at home, and if the Nuggets listen to their coach and play more aggressively, they'll have a better chance to get to the line at home after shooting a total of only 12 free throws in the first two games. The Suns have shown they can score against the Nuggets, and that is likely to continue. If the Nuggets get in gear, Game 3 could have a high scoring total.
Pick: Nuggets -1.5, over 223
Marks: Heading into this series I thought the Suns would be compromised because of Chris Paul's shoulder injury. Not only was I wrong, but now the Nuggets look like a shell of themselves due to a back injury Michael Porter Jr. is dealing with. Talk about a huge turn of events. Paul is balling as if he never suffered a shoulder injury, Deandre Ayton is dominating in the paint, jae Crowder is draining 3s, and there is no defensive answer for Devin Booker. The Nuggets defense has been slow to get going this season, and they can't afford that in this series. I wouldn't be surprised if the Suns end up sweeping, especially with Porter injured.
Picks: Suns +1.5 first half, Suns money line (+105), Ayton double-double (-125), Paul over 9.5 assists, Crowder over 2.5 3-pointers, Porter under 18.5 points
June 10 best bets
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks (-3, 234)
Game 3: Bucks 86, Nets 83 (Nets lead series 2-1)
Snellings: After the debacle that was Game 2, it's almost shocking to see the Bucks as the favorite in Game 3. But, like a shooter that misses his first few shots, we have to forget the misses and have the confidence to lean on the technique. The Bucks offense still matches up well against the Nets defense, with a distinct advantage in the paint and shooters that can knock down volume from behind the arc. The Bucks led the NBA in scoring, were second in rebounding and top-5 in both 3-pointers made and pace this season. Playing at home, with their backs to the wall, they have to play to their level in this game or the series is over.
The Nets, meanwhile, are riding high even without James Harden (he and Jeff Green have already been declared out for Game 3). Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are scoring at will, as you'd expect, but Blake Griffin has jumped out of the time machine and is playing like an All-Star again. Their team offense was able to get their role players open shots on almost every possession in Brooklyn, and those role players are very confident right now.
I expect both teams to put points on the board and for the Bucks to finally play to their level.
Pick: Bucks -3, over 234, Griffin over 10.5 points (-125), Griffin over 20.5 PAR (-120), Khris Middleton over 22.5 points (+100), Jrue Holiday over 19.5 points (+100)
Fulghum: Durant is just too good a scorer. He scored 32 in Game 2 (also without Harden) in just three quarters of work. Harden is out again and the Bucks are more likely to keep this game close in desperation mode at home, meaning Durant will likely get closer to his full allotment of minutes. Durant is pretty much a point-per-minute scorer, so I'll go over the number, assuming he plays 35 minutes or more.
Pick: Durant over 32.5 points
LA Clippers at Utah Jazz (-3, 221)
Game 2: Jazz 117, Clippers 111 (Jazz lead series 2-0)
Fortenbaugh: Just like the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 at Colorado, the Clippers commenced Round 2 on the road off a grueling seven-game series and had every reason in the book to lay an egg. Instead, despite Donovan Mitchell scoring 45 points on 16-of-30 shooting while Paul George shot 4-of-17 from the field and Marcus Morris shot 1-for-9 from deep, the Clippers only lost the opener by three points. I think that bodes very well for Game 2, which is why I'm backing the 'dog in this spot.
Pick: Clippers +3
Snellings: Game 1 was a tale of two halves, both of which fit with the narratives. The Clippers were fresh off a highly competitive Round 1 series that had them used to playing at their peak and therefore started faster, while the Jazz were rusty and had to get up to level. But since the Clippers were off the grueling Game 7, they lost steam down the stretch and the Donovan Mitchell-powered Jazz energized to the win. Fair enough. Now we're in Game 2, though, and they're back on the same plane.
The Clippers actually had the more effective team offense and defense in Game 1, but the main difference was that they were missing shots they typically make while Mitchell was making everything for the Jazz. I expect Mitchell to stay at superstar level but for Kawhi Leonard, George and Morris to play closer to level. I look for another competitive game, with more points on the board on both sides.
Pick: Clippers +3, over 221
June 9 best bets
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (-6, 221)
Game 2: Suns 123, Nuggets 98 (Suns lead series 2-0)
Fortenbaugh: Look at the first half vs. second half box scores from Game 1 and you'll notice that Phoenix figured something out at halftime that turned a one-point deficit into a 17-point win. The Suns went from bombing 3-pointers (7-for-21 in the first half vs. 6-for-13 in the second half) to attacking the rim and, as a result, saw their field goal percentage surge from 45.7 percent in the first half to 64 percent in the second half. Denver is weak on defense and the Suns found a way to efficiently exploit their vulnerabilities. Additionally, Phoenix clamped down on defense, slowed the pace and held the Nuggets to just 40 percent shooting from the field in the second half after permitting Nikola Jokic and company to convert 53 percent of their attempts in the first half. I think those adjustments carryover to Game 2 and the Suns fire from the gate with more success.
Pick: Suns -3 first half
Fulghum: Phoenix proved to be the step up in class we expected for the Nuggets in Game 1. While I have tremendous respect for Michael Malone, Jokic -- the league's MVP -- and the Nuggets' general tenacity, I don't think they can win this series because of the injuries. Phoenix is just too deep. Deandre Ayton is blossoming. Devin Booker arrived a long time ago. Chris Paul is a stud at point. Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder play their roles as well as anyone in the league. Denver may steal a game, but I doubt it happens in Phoenix.
Pick: Suns -6, Suns team total over 114.5, Ayton over 14.5 points
Snellings: This game is the first moment of truth for the Nuggets. They were competitive for much of Game 1, then got their doors blown off late. My anticipation is that they'll make some adjustments and return with a bang in Game 2, just as they did after losing the first game last round against the Trail Blazers. I expect a much more aggressive Jokic, putting more pressure on Ayton to come out of the paint and then punishing him when he does. I think the Suns are the better team, but I expect the Nuggets to make them work much harder on Wednesday than they did on Monday. And the Suns' defense can be excellent, but both offenses can put points on the board when they have it going, so I'm looking for a high score.
Pick: Nuggets +6, over 221
Marks: The Nuggets defense played better in the first half of Game 1 than I expected, but I'm not counting on that to be the case the second time around. Since losing Jamal Murray, Denver's defense has not been stellar, especially in the first half. Not only defensively, but offensively as well -- where Murray dominated the Suns defense in two of the three games they played in the regular season.
Aaron Gordon put up 18 points on 57% shooting in Game 1 and has scored 12 or more in four of his last five games. Bridges played 34 minutes and scored 23 points on 66% shooting, and I expect much of the same from both players.
Pick: Suns -3 first half, Suns first to 20, Gordon over 12.5 points, Bridges over 12.5 points
June 8 best bets
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5, 223)
Game 2: 76ers 118, Hawks 102 (Series tied 1-1)
Fulghum: It's abundantly clear that the 76ers will need role players like Seth Curry to rise to the occasion in order to beat this VERY deep Hawks team. Curry has played the Hawks three times this season (Game 1 included). On April 30th against Atlanta, he had an off night (7 pts, 1/7 FG). However, in the other two games Curry has combined to go 9-of-16 from three while averaging 20.5 PPG. Keep in mind both of the regular season games saw Curry play less than 26 minutes. In Game 1 of this series, however, Curry was on the floor for 36 minutes. If that's the case again in Game 2 -- which I expect it will be -- Curry should get off 7-10 attempts from deep and knock down at least 3 of them.
Pick: Curry over 14.5 points, over 2.5 3-pointers
Snellings: Game 1 was a tale of...not even two halves. More like a tale of 3.5 quarters to 0.5 quarters. The Hawks were the dominant team for most of the game, racing out to a 25+ point lead in the first half and then repelling every run to maintain a strong double-digit lead until late. But the 76ers put it all together at the end, making yet another surge that the Hawks barely beat back to hold on for a close victory. So...what happens in Game 2?
76ers by 20? I could believe it. But, by now the Hawks have earned their respect. They've got one of the best records in the NBA since Nate McMillan took over as head coach, they demolished a respectable Knicks team in the first round, and they seemed very comfortable in playing their game to steal the opener. As such, it just seems wrong for them to be such a big underdog in Game 2. Their track record says they should at least keep it close, with a legitimate chance to grab control of the series. And in Game 1, both sides showed they could score on the other in bunches, so I'm looking at the over here as well.
Pick: Hawks +5.5, over 223 points
Kezirian: Ben Simmons recorded just four rebounds in Game 1 and while I expect the Sixers to play with more urgency, I do not anticipate his doubling that output. Atlanta's Clint Capela grabbed 10 boards and Joel Embiid finished with nine. I do not expect Tobias Harris to duplicate his 10-rebound performance but Simmons has yet to top six rebounds in any single meeting this year. A reason for that is limited minutes due to regular season blowouts so it's a bit misleading. Ultimately, I think Doc Rivers will need to use Simmons guarding Trae Young, rather than the Game 1 plan of Danny Green. Second, I believe Atlanta at full strength offers more size and thus limits Simmons' opportunities. Simmons needs to guard Young and run the offense. Rebounding is not his top priority in Game 2.
Pick: Simmons under 7.5 rebounds (+105)
LA Clippers at Utah Jazz (-3.5, 221.5)
Game 1: Jazz 112, Clippers 109 (Jazz lead series 1-0)
Fortenbaugh: Utah lost the first half of Game 1 against the Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points. Donovan Mitchell then returned from injury and in the four games that followed, the Jazz smoked the Grizz by an average of 15 points per game during the first half. This outcome wasn't an anomaly, as Utah concluded the regular season ranked first in the Association in both first half scoring differential and first half scoring differential when playing at home. As for the Clippers, please excuse me if I don't have an abundance of faith in a club that needed seven games to get past a one-man act in Luka Doncic, who played on a team that ranked 21st in defensive rating, 18th in 3-point shooting and 15th in free throw shooting during the regular season.
Pick: Jazz first half -2
Snellings: The Jazz are the top seed and, according to ESPN BPI, have been the team to beat for months now. The Clippers are coming off a series against the Mavericks where they were on the ropes from Game 1 until Game 7. There are even more contrasts stylistically, where the Jazz play a new-aged perimeter-shooting attack on offense with a traditional center-anchored defense while the Clippers are built around a core of multi-purpose wings and forwards on both sides of the ball. Health is another key factor, as the Clippers seem to finally be at or near full strength while the Jazz continue to have injury issues in the backcourt, now with Mike Conley Jr. day-to-day as the series begins. Both teams can put the ball in the basket, though, especially from the perimeter, so I expect there to be some high-scoring games this series.
For today, I'll lean on several factors that I think could tilt it towards the Clippers for both Game 1 and the series. They should already be playing near their peaks, fresh off such a huge first-round challenge, while the Jazz might still have to build up to their edge. The Conley injury shouldn't be minimized, because he's the floor general on offense. The Jazz don't really have an answer for Kawhi Leonard or Paul George, while at least on paper the Clippers should be able to make life difficult on Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic. And the Clippers have a potential secret weapon in Ivica Zubac, whose size worked against him against the Mavericks but that should get the chance for quality minutes against the center-oriented Jazz.
Pick: Clippers +3.5, over 221.5 points
Kezirian: Since Donovan Mitchell returned from injury, Utah has looked like the 1-seed, covering four straight games, and understandably, is the Western Conference favorite. I expect the Jazz to start strong and continue to play with energy and hunger. We might see a bit of a relaxed performance from the Clippers, coming off a Game 7 win. I like Utah in the first quarter, especially since the altitude is felt most when players first reach full speed. Also, Ty Lue deserves credit for making the right adjustments against Dallas but let's not assume his optimal rotation will start this series.
Pick: Jazz first quarter -.5 (-120)
June 7 best bets
Game 2: Nets 125, Bucks 86 (Nets lead series 2-0)
Fortenbaugh: The Game 1 total closed at 239.5 for a matchup that concluded with only 222 points being scored. As a result, the Game 2 total has been adjusted south to 233.5 points, which I believe presents an opportunity to play the over. Take a look at Milwaukee's Saturday night box score and you'll notice that the NBA's fifth-best 3-point shooting team from the regular season (38.9 percent) shot just 20 percent (6-for-30) from downtown in Game 1. Additionally, the Bucks shot only 57.9 percent from the free throw line despite shooting 76 percent from the charity stripe during the regular season. Throw in the fact that Brooklyn attempted just nine free throws all game (down from 22.5 per game during the regular season) and I believe that some positive regression will lead to a more explosive output in Game 2.
Pick: Over 233.5
Kezirian: The entire NBA has yet to figure out how to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Brooklyn in particular is at a disadvantage. During the regular season, Jeff Green played at least 33 minutes in every meeting with Milwaukee. He missed Game 1 with an injury and is expected to miss Game 2. The Greek Freak scored 34 points in the series opener and should continue to thrive.
Pick: Antetokounmpo over 33.5 points (-105)
Snellings: Joe has an excellent point about how down the Bucks' shooting was in Game 1. As I pointed out during the game, the Bucks were visibly playing out of character. They were playing too fast, attempting desperate tips instead of securing easy rebounds, making hesitant reads that led to turnovers and, yes, missing a lot of shots that they normally make. It reminded me a lot, in fact, of Game 1 of their first round series against the Heat. The Bucks won that game, but they played similarly poorly on offense. They then settled in and played to level in the next three games and produced.
If they did have some extra nerves in Game 1, the loss may make them even nervier in Game 2. However, at some point, they have to revert to their actual level -- which should lead to more points scored, as well as another good chance to steal a game on the road, especially with James Harden not expected to play. These conditions should also lead to the individual Bucks stars putting big numbers on the board for Game 2, as the Nets' "big two" shoulder a monster load in order to try to hold home court without their floor general.
Pick: Bucks +2, over 233.5 points, Antetokounmpo over 33.5 points (-105), Khris Middleton over 21.5 points (-115), Jrue Holiday over 19.5 points (-125), Kyrie Irving over 28.5 points (-110), Kevin Durant over 31.5 points (-120)
Game 1: Suns 122, Nuggets 105 (Suns lead series 1-0)
Fortenbaugh: Along with the Jazz, the Suns are the only team in the Association to conclude the regular season ranked in the top four in both offensive and defensive rating when playing at home. Speaking of home-court advantage, ever since the Suns weathered a three-game home losing streak at the end of January, the franchise has gone an astounding 26-6 straight up and 22-10 against the spread when playing at Phoenix Suns Arena (what a name!) while outscoring the opposition by an average of 10.6 points per game. After what I witnessed during the Portland series, it's extremely difficult for me at this current juncture to feel any semblance of confidence whatsoever when it comes to Denver's defense. Remember, Phoenix ranked seventh in the NBA in 3-point shooting during the regular season (37.8 percent), and I'm not sure I saw the Blazers attempt a single contested 3-pointer in their entire six-game series with the Nuggets.
Pick: Suns -4.5
Snellings: The Suns have a lot in common with the Nuggets' first round opponents, the Trail Blazers ... on offense. The Devin Booker/Chris Paul backcourt compares well with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, Deandre Ayton's offensive game is comparable with Jusuf Nurkic's, and both teams have a slew of forwards that can knock down the 3-pointer. The difference is on defense, where the Trail Blazers couldn't stop a nosebleed, whereas the Suns are actually good.
With that said, Nikola Jokic is a different animal and will be as challenging to the Suns as he was to the Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers could only compete when Nurkic held his own, because they didn't have any other size with defensive ability. The Suns are in a similar predicament, without a lot of size behind Ayton, so if he gets into foul trouble it could be a problem. The Suns do have several strong 3-and-D forwards, heavy on the defense, which could make it harder for Michael Porter Jr. to get off like he did. Plus, their backcourt is strong defensively, which will be key against the Nuggets' multi-headed guard group that all took turns shining against the Trail Blazers.
Pick: Suns -4.5, under 219.5 points
June 6 best bets
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 220.5)
Game 1: Hawks 128, 76ers 124 (Hawks lead series 1-0)
Marks: Joel Embiid dealing with a knee issue is a huge concern for me heading into this series. Let's be honest, he is the straw that stirs that Sixers' drink, and without him at 100 percent I have the Hawks winning the series. The 76ers are 10-11 without Embiid on the court and score considerably less points. Trae Young has been tremendous in the postseason, averaging 29 points and eight assists per game against a very good Knicks defense. The Hawks offense ranks 10th in the NBA since Nate McMillan has taken over as head coach.
Pick: Young over 25.5 points, Clint Capela over 25.5 points+rebounds, Hawks win series (+160)
Fortenbaugh: Philly's offensive rating plummeted from 117.8 when Joel Embiid was on the court during the regular season to 106.6 when the MVP candidate was on the bench. For perspective, that's the difference between ranking first in the NBA in offensive rating and 28th. Even if Embiid is able to play on Sunday, I think we can all agree he won't be anywhere close to 100 percent due to a recently sustained lateral meniscus tear in his right knee. Bottom line: Philly's offense won't be the same. Conversely, take note that the Hawks ranked 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating prior to hiring Nate McMillan as head coach and 12th after bringing McMillan on board. That's a significant improvement.
Pick: Under 220.5 points
Snellings: As Anita and Joe pointed out, the questions surrounding Embiid's health are the dinosaur in the room. It's possible that, if the meniscus damage is small enough and in the right place, Embiid may be able to play at near capacity on Sunday after almost a week off. But, it's possible that it's not. No way for us to really know until tip-off, so let's concentrate on what we do know:
Since Nate McMillan took over as the Hawks coach, they have one of the best records in the NBA. Very similar, over those months, to the 76ers. If we knew Embiid was 100% it would be enough to favor the 76ers, but even if that were the case the Hawks would still be a formidable opponent. With the uncertainty, I give the Hawks a good chance to come out and try to steal Game 1 in Philly. The Hawks are just coming off a series where they showed they can be effective against a strong defensive team and win relatively low-scoring games because they play defense themselves.
Pick: Hawks +2.5, under 220.5
Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers (-6.5, 211.5)
Game 7: Clippers 126, Mavs 111 (Clippers win series 4-3)
Snellings: This series has been maddening to predict. It's officially the first series in NBA history where the road team has won all of the first six games. The Mavericks franchise also enters this series with an undefeated 5 - 0 playoffs record in the Staples Center, an odd bit of lore. The questions to consider here are: what have we learned in the six previous games that could predict what might happen here?
Well, first, the Mavericks were able to punch the Clippers in the mouth with a healthy Luka Doncic leading the way earlier in the series. In the last two games, though, even with Luka playing at a high level the Clippers had a chance to win Game 5 late and actually pulled out Game 6. This indicates to me that they have figured out how to compete even when Luka is on a tear. Relatedly, the free-wheeling shooting of earlier in the series has been curtailed, and the last two games have been defensive struggles. And, in each of the last two games, the action has been close and competitive well into the fourth quarter.
This game shapes up to be a low-scoring toss-up, so to me a 6.5 point spread in either direction is too large.
Pick: Mavericks +6.5, under 214.5 points
June 5 best bets
Game 1: Bucks, 115, Nets 107 (Nets lead series 1-0)
Fortenbaugh: Milwaukee's postseason misfires in 2019 and 2020 came against the Raptors and Heat, respectively, two clubs that operated at a slow pace while playing elite defense. This year's iteration of the Nets is the antithesis of those previous playoff adversaries, which is why I believe the Bucks have a chance to thrive in this series. Brooklyn wrapped the regular season ranked 22nd in defensive rating and 11th in pace, attributes Milwaukee can no doubt have success exploiting. And let's not forget the fact that the Bucks bring a top-10 defense to the table, something that could prove pivotal in the final stages of tightly contested matchups against the likes of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving.
Picks: Bucks +4, over 239.5 , Bucks team total over 118.5, Bucks +180 to win series, Bucks to win series in 7 games +650
Snellings: As Joe alluded to, this game and series shapes up to have a lot of points scored and should look nothing like the Bucks' last two playoff battles against future NBA finalists. The Bucks led the NBA In scoring this season at 120.1 PPG, and they're considered the lesser offense in this matchup. In three matchups this season, none of which included all three of the Nets' Big Three playing simultaneously, these two teams averaged a combined 240.3 PPG.
With that said, while the Nets' strategy will certainly be to outscore, the Bucks seem to have ratcheted up the defensive intensity to 11 for the postseason. They can't be expected to stop the juggernaut Nets offense or even to truly slow them, but there is a reasonable chance they make it harder on the Nets defensively than they did in the regular season. And with the over/under line set so high, this pushes me toward the under for the combined score. For the individuals, though, especially for the Bucks but also including Kevin Durant, I'm expecting a lot of points and overs. I'm expecting the Bucks to win the series, so I think they have a good chance to steal Game 1.
Pick: Bucks +4, under 239.5, Giannis Antetokounmpo over 32.5 points (-105), Khris Middleton over 21.5 points (-120), Jrue Holiday over 20.5 points (+100), Durant over 28.5 points (-125)
Marks: I think this series goes the distance and will be a ton of fun to watch. As for the first game, Giannis should have his way with the Nets, especially when they go small ball -- the loss of Jeff Green is a huge advantage for Antetokounmpo. Durant has a juicy matchup against P.J. Tucker, one he should dominate, and Joe Harris should continue to get open looks, especially with Donte DiVincenzo out with a foot injury.
Pick: Over 239.5, Nets money line (-165), Giannis over 51.5 PAR, Durant double-double (+140), Harris over 14.5 points+assists, Harris over 2.5 3-pointers
June 4th picks
LA Clippers (-2, 216.5) at Dallas Mavericks
Game 6: Clippers 104, Mavericks 97, series tied 3-3
Fortenbaugh: There are two excellent reasons for why the Mavericks have lost two games in this series: Luka Doncic's injury and 3-point shooting regression based on a white-hot start to the series in Games 1 and 2. I don't see either of those as an issue for Game 6, which is why I'll gladly take the points with Dallas. Luka looked incredible, dropping 42 points on Kawhi Leonard and company Wednesday night and the Mavericks shot a pedestrian 41 percent from the floor, so there's little reason to believe that either the Doncic injury or a shooting regression will dog the underdogs Friday night. Additionally, haven't the Mavericks been the better team in this series? If you agree, ponder the fact that the Clippers have been the favorites in all six games, assuming the line holds up prior to tip-off. I think this should be closer to Dallas -1.
Pick: Mavericks +2.5
Snellings: This is one of the odder series in recent memory. The road team has won every game so far, only the third time that's ever happened through five games. But one thing has been consistent throughout: when Doncic is healthy and playing at a high level, the Mavericks have controlled the action. He looked like he could barely lift his head in Game 4, and the Mavericks got smoked, but in Game 5 he looked more like his usual self in a victory. If he's healthy, at home, the Mavericks should not be the underdog. Closing out a good team is one of the hardest things to do, but the Mavericks have a good chance to do just that on Friday. And as this series gets more competitive, the defense seems to get tighter and the shots harder to come by. Thus, I'm playing the under here.
Pick: Mavericks +2.5, under 216.5
Kezirian: This one is pretty simple. Four of the five games have hit the first quarter over. The only under was Game 4, when Doncic was visibly pained by the nerve issue in his neck. Otherwise, offense is the focal point and the number is relatively low. This series has skewed to the second half under and the oddsmakers have adjusted, but I still it's worth riding the scoring trend before halftime.
Pick: First quarter over 55.5, first half over 110
June 3rd picks
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-5, 227.5)
Game 6: Nuggets 126, Blazers 115 (Nuggets win series 4-2)
Fortenbaugh: "Pace" is the number of possessions a team uses per game. The more possessions a team uses, the more opportunities it has to score. Therefore, it's reasonable to assume that the higher the pace metric, the higher the score. Case in point: the Wizards ranked first in pace during the regular season and third in scoring. Conversely, the Knicks ranked 30th in pace and 26th in scoring. The average pace of the five games played between Denver and Portland is 94.3, which ranks slightly behind the aforementioned Knicks, who finished dead last in the NBA at 96.3. So let's take this information and combine it with the fact that these two teams have combined to shoot a ridiculous 40.6 percent from 3-point range during this series. To put that number into perspective, the Clippers led the NBA in 3-point percentage during the regular season at 41.1 percent. What does it all mean? A slow pace combined with a predicted regression in 3-point shooting leads to an under.
Pick: Under 227.5
Snellings: This series keeps delivering high quality, memorable basketball. Game 5 will forever be known as the Damian Lillard game, even though likely MVP Nikola Jokic tossed in a casual 38 points, 11 boards and nine assists himself. If ever there were a series that seemed destined for seven games, this feels like the one. The Trail Blazers will have to pick themselves up off the canvas after absorbing an excruciating loss, but they're a veteran team with a lot of playoff experience, and they're returning home with their backs against the wall. According to ESPN BPI, the Trail Blazers have a 57.1% chance to win, and I agree that they should be favored. The question is, by how much? Well, these teams have now played eight times overall this season, and when the Trail Blazers have won it hasn't been particularly close (average 16.7 point margin in three wins).
The other major question is, how many points will be scored? Joe has a great point about pace and the extreme level of shooting these teams have exhibited thus far. On the other hand, the track record of these two teams is pretty well established. In their last six meetings, all within the last three weeks, these two teams have combined for more than 227 points in five of them. They were at 242 combined points on Tuesday even before the overtime periods, and ultimately ended up at 287 points. I look for another high-scoring game on Thursday.
Pick: Trail Blazers -5, over 227.5
Fulghum: Is a 34.5 point prop too low for Lillard at home in a game that could be the last of the Blazers' season? Yes, yes it is. Whether Portland prevails or not, Dame Time will be activated.
Pick: Lillard over 34.5 points
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (-3, 208.5)
Game 6: Suns 113, Lakers 100 (Suns wins series 4-2)
Snellings: Once again, the questions about health hang over any predictions one could make. Will Anthony Davis play Thursday? If so, how much can we expect from him? Same question about Chris Paul, who seemed to re-injure his shoulder Tuesday. And LeBron James, who we've seen dig into the well and go into cyborg mode in past playoffs series with his back to the wall...he isn't that far removed from his own major injury, so is it even possible he can reach that level right now?
So many questions. But what we've seen thus far is that the Lakers have only been able to win in this series when Davis not only plays, but dominates. Davis has averaged 34 points and 10.5 rebounds in their two wins vs. a pro-rated 12.7 PPG and 7.3 RPG in the 1.5 games that he played in that the Lakers lost. It is difficult to imagine Davis playing at his peak level so soon, if he's able to play at all. Paul's shoulder is a concern in the other direction, but he was at least able to return to the court briefly after he banged into Wes Matthews on Tuesday. Plus, the Suns have been playing with an attenuated Paul all series and should maybe be more accustomed to it at this point. And the defenses have been stifling all series, so I expect more of the same.
Pick: Suns +3, under 208.5
Fulghum: Especially with Davis on the shelf (or compromised, if he's able to suit up), the Lakers offense goes from decent to pretty bad, especially in the half court. Neither of these teams are particularly fast in terms of pace, and both are excellent defensively. The under has hit in four of the five games played thus far in the series, with the highest total of any game being 211. I'll keep riding the trend.
Pick: Under 208.5
June 2nd best bets
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers (-7, 230)
Game 5: 76ers 129, Wizards 112 (76ers win series 4-1)
Kezirian: When discussing the total, Joel Embiid's availability is not that much of a factor for me. He's outstanding on both ends of the court, so it's essentially a wash in that regard. If Embiid is unable to go, Doc Rivers will keep Dwight Howard coming off the bench. Either way, I think Washington will continue to push the pace, as it wants to avoid trying to score in the half court against Philly's outstanding length. I also think the Sixers will still be able to score at will against a poor Wizards defense. Losing Embiid during a game is a lot different than preparing to play without him. Philly scored plenty in the games Embiid missed. The injury to Washington's David Bertans is more of a concern for me, but I still think we hit another over.
I am opting for the first half over, as all four have hit so far in this series. If Philly wins a blowout, then this game could die in the fourth quarter like it has earlier in the series. However, if Washington hangs around, we could see the intentional fouling again of Ben Simmons, which creates more possessions for the Wizards and thus helps the over. However, I just feel more comfortable with the first half over instead of the full game.
Picks: First half over 117
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (-1.5, 208)
Game 5: Hawks 103, Knicks 89 (Hawks win series 4-1)
Fortenbaugh: One of the most bankable bets so far this NBA postseason has been to ride the Hawks in the first half over the Knicks, which is currently a perfect 4-0 ATS for their first-round series. Trae Young and friends have outscored the orange and blue by an average of 8.2 points per first half thanks, in large part, to a +21 point differential in the second quarter. We spent the entire regular season heaping praise upon New York's defensive prowess, but it has been Atlanta's defense that has stolen the show in the opening round after holding the Knicks to just 99 points per game on 40.2 percent shooting from the field and 32.7 percent from deep through four contests.
Pick: Hawks +1 first half
Snellings: The Knicks are a very proud team, are one game away from elimination and are playing in front of a home crowd, so there are reasons to think they could pull this one out. Before the series, I predicted the Hawks to win in six, which would require a Knicks win. But I have been watching this series throughout, and the Hawks are just a better team. They have a more dynamic offense, with a brilliant scorer/playmaker in Young who creates mismatches that the Knicks defense isn't equipped to handle. Then, the rest of the lineup is full of high-efficiency finishers from either behind the arc or at the rim. And with the defensive intensity that coach Nate McMillian has the Hawks delivering, it's difficult for me to see the Knicks as the favorites in this game. I'm looking for another low-scoring contest, and the Hawks have a very good chance to close this series out.
Pick: Hawks +1.5, under 208
Game 5: Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz (-9.5, 226)
Game 5: Jazz 126, Grizzlies 110 (Jazz win series 4-1)
Fortenbaugh: Utah entered the postseason leading the Association in first-half scoring differential (+5.3) and first-half scoring differential when playing at home (+7.7). But all that was turned upside down in a Donovan Mitchell-less Game 1 that saw the Grizz outscore the Jazz 49-43 in the first half and 112-109 for the game. The good news for Utah fans is that Mitchell returned in Game 2 and, since that time, the Jazz have outscored Memphis in the first half by an average of 12 points per game while putting the series in a 3-1 stranglehold. Memphis is cooked after dropping both games at home.
Picks: Jazz -5.5 first half
Fulghum: Mitchell is activating playoff mode like we saw in the bubble last year. In Game 2, he scored 25 points in 25 minutes. In Game 3, he scored 29 points in 29 minutes. Finally breaking the 30-minute barrier in Game 4, Mitchell predictably scored 30 points. Now that he's ready to play his full allotment of minutes, we should expect 30 points to be the floor for his scoring output.
Pick: Mitchell over 27.5 points
Kezirian: All four games in this series have gone over the total. Consequently, the number has climbed from 216.5 in the opener to 226 in Game 5. I still think we see points. Utah ranks among the top teams in offensive efficiency, and while their defense is also strong, Memphis has found ways to push the pace and score. Utah pulled ahead in Game 4 and took the air out of the ball in the fourth quarter, so I am focusing on the first half.
Picks: First half over 111
Game 5: Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers (-7, 217)
Game 5: Mavericks 105, Clippers 100 (Mavs lead series 3-2)
Snellings: This is another series that has swung on health, and the murkiness of Luka Doncic's physical abilities makes this one difficult to predict. But here is what we know: the Mavericks dominated the first five halves of this series behind a healthy Luka, then they've struggled in the three halves since we started seeing Luka on the bench in a shoulder harness. When I hear "nerve damage," it suggests something more lingering than a couple days off could fix. But the team is saying that he's already showing signs of improvement.
We've just seen 30-something Chris Paul bounce back from almost missing a game to instead playing close enough to his norm for his team to win. Luka is young, and my father always said that young people heal fast. I'm looking for Luka to be well enough to make this a competitive game, which means the Mavericks should put some points on the board as well. The Clippers have gotten all the rust out of their own offense, so if Luka is able to go this could be a fun game.
Pick: Mavericks +7, over 217
Marks: The Clippers went small ball last game and it worked. Nicolas Batum started for Ivica Zubac and it gave the Clippers more options on defense, and they were able to challenge Luka on fast breaks. I expect much of the same, with Batum playing over 30 minutes. He put up 10 points last game and has averaged two 3-pointers per game over his last five.
Pick: Batum over 8.5 points (-105), over 1.5 3-pointers (+100)
June 1st picks
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets (-12, 231.5)
Game 5: Nets 123, Celtics 109 (Nets win series 4-1)
Kezirian: Closeout games are difficult, and as we observed in Game 4, Boston refuses to just let garbage time play out conventionally. The Celtics played to the final whistle, cutting a 24-point deficit with 5:45 remaining to 15 with 1:34 left. Boston finally relented and inserted the end of its bench, but laying this many points is just too risky. I think the Nets will advance, but I am going to press with the first half and game over.
Boston has demonstrated it will take the fight to Brooklyn and attack on offense, trying to exploit the poor Nets defense. The Celtics are going to force Brooklyn to hit all their shots because the Celtics believe they can score at will. The Celtics scored 60-plus points before halftime in each of the last two games. Kemba Walker's availability is uncertain, but I still think Boston can score enough without him, and obviously the Nets are an offensive juggernaut.
Pick: First half over 115, game over 231.5
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets (-1.5, 226)
Game 5: Nuggets 147, Blazers 140 (2OT) (Nuggets lead series 3-2)
Snellings: This has quietly been the best series of the first round, with two evenly matched teams playing at a high level and each taking turns in controlling the action. The Trail Blazers took Game 1 on the road pretty convincingly, but the Nuggets stole it back in Game 3 based in part on a surprising effort from Austin Rivers. Game 5, therefore, shapes up as the crucial pivot point. And I think the Trail Blazers rise to this occasion as the more balanced team with more perimeter firepower that has started getting positive contributions from Jusuf Nurkic and their frontcourt. The Nuggets won't make it easy, especially at home in the Mile High City, and I expect both teams to put points on the board, but the Trail Blazers head back home with a 3-2 advantage.
Pick: Trail Blazers +1.5, over 226
Kezirian: This series is the epitome of playoff betting. Handicapping a team's performance is tricky in any sport, and obviously the postseason adds another wrinkle. As for Game 5, I expect a strong start from the home team. Michael Malone called out his team after an embarrassing Game 4 loss. It had nothing to do with strategy or adjustments; rather, it is tough to maintain high energy after back-to-back playoff wins. The Nuggets were relaxed, and Portland was the more desperate team. Denver will respond with sharp play, and that's how I am betting this game.
Pick: Nuggets -.5 first quarter
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (-5.5, 208.5)
Game 5: Suns 115, Lakers 85 (Suns lead series 3-2)
Snellings: This is the most difficult series to predict because it's about health at least as much as it is about basketball. With Chris Paul and Anthony Davis in particular, we just don't know from game to game what caliber either team will be able to play on a given night. With that said, Paul is coming off an inspirational Game 4 in which he talked himself onto the court and played well. Davis was last seen with an aggravated groin issue that has him considered day-to-day moving forward.
With the game back in Phoenix -- and this as possibly their last best chance to grab hold of the series -- I say the Suns play their best basketball and hold home-court advantage moving into Game 6. This series has been defense-first throughout, and I think both teams default to more defensive pressure when questions about health arise. Thus, I'm looking for another low-scoring affair.
Pick: Suns -5.5, under 208.5
May 30th picks
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-4.5, 209.5)
Game 4: Hawks 113, Knicks 96 (Hawks lead series 3-1)
Snellings: Thus far, the Hawks have just been the better team in this series. The Knicks had a strong second-half comeback in Game 2 to get a win, but for the other five halves the Hawks have been in control. The Knicks win with a stout defense, but they don't have dominant defenders and Trae Young is able to find the weak spots in their system and exploit them. Playing at home again, I expect the Hawks to take care of business and go back to New York up 3-1. However, I do expect the Knicks to give a better effort than in Game 3, which means putting more points on the board. Julius Randle, in particular, has been ice-cold through the first three games to the point he hasn't been trusted in some key fourth quarter situations. I look for him to wake up, and the Knicks to put up a better offensive performance, but to ultimately come up short.
Pick: Hawks -4.5, over 209.5
Kezirian: I agree with Andre in that Atlanta is the better team. The Knicks surpassed all expectations this season but Atlanta is finally living up to the preseason hype. During the season, they replaced their head coach and also started to get much healthier. Since the All-Star Break, Atlanta is 20-2 straight up and 18-4 ATS at home. They have much better scoring punch than New York and while I expect a strong effort from the Knicks, the Hawks seem to have all the answers.
Pick: Hawks -4.5
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (-7, 210)
Game 4: Suns 100, Lakers 92 (Series tied 2-2)
Fortenbaugh: The first three games of this series produced grand totals of 189 points, 211 points and 204 points, respectively. But take note that Game 2's 211-point "explosion" was aided by a ridiculous 68-second stretch to close the game that featured an astounding 19 points. Since it's extremely rare to witness 19 points in 68 seconds, I'm willing to go out on a limb and suggest we may have experienced an outlier performance in that instance. What's even more comforting is that despite rising pace metrics in every game this series, the defense remains stellar and the scoring remains hard to sustain on a consistent basis. Back to the well for another spin with the under.
Pick: Under 210 points
Snellings: Moment of truth time. The Lakers have shown that they are healthy and looking a lot like last year's juggernauts, which makes them the favorites to come out of the West. On the other hand, the Suns were one of only two teams in the NBA this season to win more than 70% of their games, and their +5.8 point scoring margin was also among the league leaders. Said another way, this year's Suns measured out as a better team than any of the Lakers' postseason opponents last season on their way to the championship. Thus, the Lakers can be themselves and still be in for a battle.
A lot of it comes down to how well Chris Paul can play. He's played, but in a limited capacity, in each of the last two games since injuring his shoulder in Game 1. If the extra time has been enough for him to approximate his normal self, the Suns should be competitive in this game. If he just can't do it, we could be running back Game 4. I say Paul and the Suns have it in them to make this game a battle. And, like the rest of the series, the game should be physical and defensive-minded.
Pick: Suns +7.0, under 210
LA Clippers (-2.5, 222) at Dallas Mavericks
Game 4: Clippers 106, Mavericks 81 (Series tied 2-2)
Snellings: The Clippers played just about perfectly on Friday. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to shoot 24-for-35 from the field for 65 points, the team itself shot 57.9% from the field, 41.9% from downtown and 94.4% from the line, and the defense held the Mavericks to a very pedestrian 38.3% from 2-point range. But despite that, the Mavericks were right there with a legitimate chance to win that game in the fourth quarter. I think the Mavericks tightened up a bit last game while the Clippers played as though it were Game 7. I expect the Mavericks to return to their level, still at home, and make it extremely difficult for the Clippers to wrestle home court advantage back. And I expect there to be points put on the board, because the Mavericks have shown they can score on this team when they play to their level.
Pick: Mavericks +2.5, over 222
Kezirian: Rather than play Game 4, I am opting to take Dallas for the series. If the Mavericks bounce back at home, then I obviously like their chances with a 3-1 series lead. If the Clips are able to deliver again, I still have faith in Rick Carlisle to make the right adjustments. I am not convinced this Clippers team has a healthy locker room and Dallas is unafraid, if they have to steal back home-court advantage.
Pick: Mavericks to win series (-120)
May 29th picks
Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 221.5) at Miami Heat
Game 4: Bucks 120, Heat 103 (Bucks win series 4-0)
Fortenbaugh: This is a spite bet, plain and simple. I liked Miami to win this series as well as to cover the first half line in Game 3 and both bets are in transit to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. Ever since that tightly contested battle in Game 1, the Heat have been run out of the gym by Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. to the tune of a 34-point annihilation in Game 2 and a 19-point rout in Game 3. If the Heat couldn't muster the fortitude to put up a fight at home down 0-2 in the series, what makes us think they will do so in Game 4? I'm honestly surprised this line isn't higher.
Pick: Bucks -4.5
Snellings: I picked the Bucks to win this series in six games or fewer, and their advantages in the series have played out much as I expected. They are a team that has generally played at championship level for the past two seasons, but they had two very specific weaknesses that the 2019 Raptors and 2020 Heat used to defeat them: overreliance on Giannis on offense and inability to effectively switch on defense. They brought in Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker this offseason and completely closed those loopholes. They've played up to level thus far, but the next step in their championship maturation process is to learn to put away opponents when they have the chance.
The Heat are a prideful team, and they should be at their best with their backs against the wall -- which should mean this will be a physical, defensive-minded game akin to Game 1. But, if they're serious, the Bucks should find a way to pull this one out.
Pick: Bucks -4.5, under 221.5
Marks: I would imagine the Heat are ready for this series to be over. I expected the Heat to put up more of a fight in Game 3, but that was not the case -- only seven offensive boards will not get the trick done.
Giannis gets all the attention, but Holiday (shot 70% in Game 3) and Khris Middleton (shot 50% in Game 3) have been major factors in this series. This game will be over before it even begins.
Pick: Bucks -4.5, Holiday over 23.5 points+rebounds (-120), Middleton over 26.5 points+assists (-105)
Fulghum: The addition of Holiday has proven to be just what the Bucks needed to truly become champion contenders. They're dismantling Miami in an impressive fashion. Whether it's a natural sweep or a Gentlemen's sweep, I'm going to continue to ride this Giannis prop. Five of the seven playoff games against Miami have netted the two-time MVP less than 28 points, including Game 1 of this series, which went to OT.
Pick: Antetokounmpo under 27.5 points
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-4, 228)
Game 4: Trail Blazers 115, Nuggets 95 (Series tied 2-2)
Snellings: This series has been an offensive slugfest thus far, and I look for more of the same in Game 4. The Nuggets took home-court advantage back in Game 3 on the strength of a stellar effort from Nikola Jokic and an irrationally confident fourth-quarter shooting exhibition from Austin Rivers. They are a strong road team and will look to press the advantage to return home for Game 5 with a chance to close out. I don't believe the Trail Blazers will let them.
Damian Lillard was outshot by Rivers in the crucial moments of the fourth quarter of Game 3. I don't see that happening again, and I think the Trail Blazers bounce back to tie the series and return to Denver on serve. It's another shootout.
Pick: Trail Blazers -4, over 228
Marks: The Nuggets won Game 3 with unexpected heroics from Austin Rivers. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers struggled from behind the arc, converting just 14 of their 45 attempts. I don't expect the same in Game 4.
Lillard had been otherworldly in this series from downtown but was only 5-of-16 in Game 3. I love the volume of attempts, and he will need to convert more than five in this game to keep up with Jokic's offensive firepower. Jusuf Nurkic has been unstoppable on the boards, so I will keep playing the over.
Pick: Blazers -4, Lillard over 4.5 3-pointers (-115), Nurkic over 11.5 rebounds (-105)
Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5, 227.5) at Washington Wizards
Game 3: 76ers 132, Wizards 103 (76ers lead series 3-0)
Fortenbaugh: Philly finally looks like a championship contender. Granted, the opposition is a middling Wizards team, but after escaping with a seven-point victory in Game 1, the Sixers trashed the Wizards by 25 in Game 2. That's what an elite club is supposed to do to an inferior opponent.
With the series heading to Washington and Russell Westbrook banged up alongside an ailing Bradley Beal, the time has arrived for "The Process" to take the next step in its evolution. Close out the running-on-fumes Wizards and get ready for the Hawks-Knicks winner. But before that can happen, cover the 5.5 in Game 3.
Pick: 76ers -5.5
Snellings: I agree with Joe that the 76ers appear to be playing up to level and they have the Wizards on the ropes. And this was before Westbrook tweaked his ankle in Game 2. With all of the controversy swirling around the way Westbrook was treated, I expect the Wizards to come out at home and play at their best. But if the 76ers are truly ready, the Wizards' best shouldn't be enough to win.
It should be enough, though, for the Wizards to put some points on the board. And since the 76ers routinely drop 120-plus points against the porous Wizards defense, this game should be a high-scoring one.
Pick: 76ers -5.5, over 227.5
Marks: Westbrook did not practice Friday because of a right ankle injury, and even if he does play, he will not be 100 percent. And as great as Bradley Beal has been, unless all hands are on deck for the Wizards, plan on pulling out the broom.
Washington had no answer last game for the 76ers, who shot 56% for the game. Ben Simmons was a huge factor with 22 points and nine rebounds and shot a ridiculous 73% from the floor. I expect much of the same in Game 3.
Pick: 76ers -5.5, Simmons over 31.5 PAR (-105)
Fulghum: The Wizards are such a perfect matchup for a player with Simmons' skillset. He's a great rebounder and loves to push pace with his length and great passing ability. Simmons has played the Wizards four times this season and is averaging 9.8 RPG and 10.5 APG in those contests.
Pick: Ben Simmons over 16.5 assists + rebounds
Utah Jazz (-5.5, 224) at Memphis Grizzlies
Game 3: Jazz 121, Grizzlies 111 (Jazz lead series tied 2-1)
Fulghum: Donny Boy is just getting started. Clearly upset over his absence in Game 1, Donovan Mitchell immediately caught flames in Game 2, scoring 25 points and making five threes in just 25 minutes of action. As his minutes climb, so too will his production. Don't forget this guy averaged 36.3 PPG in last year's epic series vs. Denver -- including three games of 44, 51, 57.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell over 24.5 points, Donovan Mitchell over 3.5 3-pointers
May 28th picks
Brooklyn Nets (-7, 228) at Boston Celtics
Game 3: Celtics 125, Nets 119 (Nets lead series 2-1)
Fulghum: The Celtics are on borrowed time. Brooklyn, the Las Vegas favorite to win it all, will have to wait until later in the postseason to find a truly worthy opponent. Right now, all the Nets can do is dismantle the team in front of them. Led by efficient scoring and far better health, the Nets take Game 3 on the road.
Pick: Nets -7, Kevin Durant over 27.5 points
Marks: The Nets' Big 3 are just too good. It doesn't matter whether it's Boston or Brooklyn, the Celtics have no chance, so pull out the brooms. I am teasing the Nets with the Mavs to avoid the backdoor cover against the Nets, I and love Dallas getting seven (with the teaser) at home, where I expect Luka Doncic to do Luka Doncic things.
My favorite prop bet is Joe Harris over 2.5 3-pointers. Even with the Nets' Big 3 on the court, Harris is still averaging 33 minutes and was 7-for-10 from downtown his last game. Every championship team needs a sharp shooter, and Harris is the Nets'.
Pick: Nets -2 in teaser with Mavs +7 (-130), Harris over 2.5 3-pointers (-120)
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-4.5, 211)
Game 3: Hawks 105, Knicks 94 (Hawks lead series 2-1)
Snellings: This series has lived up to its competitive billing thus far, but it should be noted that even in the Knicks' Game 2 victory at home, the Hawks were winning by 13 points at the half. The Knicks scrapped back and won late, but it required a nightmare 35-point second half effort from the Hawks and second-leading scorer John Collins going scoreless.
With the series returning to Atlanta, the Hawks should expect better supporting cast production and fewer dry spells, even against a tough Knicks defense. And a Hawks team that's playing well produces points, so the Knicks will have to try to outscore them to have a shot to stay in it.
Pick: Hawks -4.5, over 211
Marks: The Knicks have started slow in both games thus far, and I'm banking that won't be the case in Game 3, especially on the road in Atlanta. I'm also counting on Julius Randle to not have a subpar first half either. The Knicks bench has been keeping them in the game; if the starting five could begin the first quarter with some intensity, they could very well be 2-0. Derrick Rose is the straw that is stirring this Knicks postseason drink, hence getting the start in the second half of Game 2. He played 39 minutes last game, and Tom Thibodeau knows how important Rose's veteran leadership has been.
As for the Hawks, De'Andre Hunter played 32 minutes in Game 2 and posted 18 points and six rebounds. I expect a lot of the same in Atlanta on Friday.
Pick: Knicks +4.5, Rose over 18.5 points (-125), Hunter over 15.5 points+rebounds (-125)
LA Clippers (-2, 219.5) at Dallas Mavericks
Game 3: Clippers 118, Mavs 108 (Mavericks lead series 2-1)
Fortenbaugh: Contrarianism at its finest, as I'd have to imagine very few of you are interested in siding with the Clippers after what they've shown in the postseason dating back to last year's 3-1 choke job against the Nuggets. Just keep in mind the following: there's no way on Earth the Mavericks can continue to shoot like they have through the first two games in this series, as Dallas is knocking down a ridiculous 54.4 percent of its shots from the floor and 50 percent of its attempts from downtown. As a result, we're only laying two points with the Clippers rather than the six or more Los Angeles was laying through the first two games of the series. Value!
Pick: Clippers -2
Snellings: As Joe points out, it seems unlikely that the Mavericks would stay scorching hot like they've been on their jump shots thus far. That said, I think we're past looking at reputations at this point. The Clippers entered this series as favorites and title contenders, which is why they've been favored in each game, but the Mavericks have been dismantling them on the road despite getting only a pedestrian 17 PPG and 4 RPG thus far from Kristaps Porzingis (20.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG in the regular season).
The Mavericks are returning home, and in five games against the Clippers this season, the Mavericks are 4-1 with a net +73 scoring margin. Even if 51 of those points came in a single-game drubbing, it just seems wrong for the Clippers to actually be favored given what they've actually done on the court against the Mavericks this season. Similarly, the Mavericks are averaging 113.5 PPG against the Clippers this season, and at home their role players should be at their best. The Clippers are going to have to score to have a chance not to fall behind 3-0 in this series.
Pick: Mavericks +2, over 219.5
May 27th picks
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5, 210)
Game 3: Lakers 109, Suns 95 (Lakers lead 2-1)
Snellings: This series always projected to be close and competitive, hinging strongly upon player health. The concern entering the series was the health of the Lakers, but right now the shoe is on the other foot. Chris Paul's shoulder obviously limited him Tuesday and kept him out for much of the second half. With such quick turnaround, there is legitimate worry as to what Paul will be able to contribute Thursday. Add in that the Lakers seemed to be jolted by their Game 1 loss -- similar to how they reacted last season after the Trail Blazers won Game 1 in the first round -- and the expectation is that the Lakers should put on a show for their home crowd Thursday. And when the Lakers play well, their defense is dominant, suggesting this game should be low scoring.
Pick: Lakers -6.5, under 210.5
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-4, 228)
Game 3: Nuggets 120, Blazers 115 (Nuggets lead 2-1)
Kezirian: Betting the NBA playoffs often requires one to forget what they last saw. After all, these are not simulated games, and the human element matters. Players tend to respond to adversity -- unless you're the Clippers, but I digress. We saw Denver respond emphatically in Game 2, and even Portland relaxed, as TNT analyst Greg Anthony indicated during the broadcast. Naturally, I expect the Blazers to bounce back in Game 3. Denver is more than capable of winning this series and Nikola Jokic has been absolutely fantastic all season, but I do not expect Denver's role players to perform as effectively as they did in Game 2. The Blazers should get this one decisively at home.
Pick: Blazers -4
Fortenbaugh: Game 2 featured a healthy 237 total points courtesy of Denver and Portland combining to shoot 50.9% from the field and 45.9% from 3-point range while converting a ridiculous 47 of 58 free throws. What's the likelihood not one but both teams continue to shoot the lights out in Game 3? I'm betting the chances of that happening are quite small.
Pick: Under 228
Snellings: The Trail Blazers earned their road split and now return to Portland with home-court advantage. Damian Lillard was stellar in those first two games, but his supporting cast had some struggles on the road with Norman Powell, Carmelo Anthony, Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Covington and Enes Kanter underperforming on offense. Typically, supporting casts perform better at home than on the road, especially when "the road" is the altitude of Denver. I expect a strong team performance from the Blazers at home, and in a series with little defense played, a well-played game would indicate a lot of points scored.
Pick: Blazers -4, over 228
Game 3: Milwaukee Bucks (-1, 226.5) at Miami Heat
Game 3: Bucks 113, Heat 84 (Bucks lead series 3-0)
Fortenbaugh: It's a do-or-die situation for Miami, which heads back to American Airlines Arena down 0-2 following a 34-point drubbing Monday night. I'm not confident the Heat have the goods to outlast Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. over the full 48 minutes, but I do think Miami fires from the gate and gives us an impressive 24 minutes to open the game. Take note that the Heat shot a pathetic 28.6 percent from deep in Game 2 (8-of-28), while the Bucks knocked down a franchise playoff record 22 3-pointers, 15 of which came during the first half. Regression is our friend in this instance.
Pick: Heat +1 first half
Kezirian: We often see this situation in the NBA playoffs. The lower-seeded team looks helpless at times and trails 2-0 in the series, needing some home cooking. And more often than not they get it, especially to start the game. The Bucks are legitimate title contenders, but I do not expect Miami to lay down. In fact, I expect a strong start, and usually oddsmakers force bettors to pay a tax for this handicapping angle. However, right now, it's not too steep. I will back Miami to begin the game with more urgency and desperation.
Pick: Heat PK first quarter (-118 at DraftKings)
May 26th picks
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz (-8.5, 218)
Game 2: Jazz 141, Grizzlies 129 (Series tied 1-1)
Fortenbaugh: Down 0-1 to eighth-seeded Memphis with two-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell set to return from a sprained right ankle, I'm betting the Jazz commence throwing haymakers from the opening tip Wednesday night. Utah ranked first in the NBA in both first-half scoring differential (+5.0) and first-half scoring differential at home (+7.4) during the regular season, while the Grizzlies ranked 17th in first-half scoring differential (-0.1).
Go deep inside the Game 1 box score and you'll notice the Jazz shot just 42 percent from the field (down from 46.8% during the regular season) and a pathetic 25.5% from downtown (down from 38.9% ). Some positive regression from the floor should no doubt help us cash this ticket.
Pick: Jazz first half -5.5
Fulghum: Mithcell will be back for Game 2 and apparently is salty about missing Game 1. The Jazz need to tie this series up -- and I think they will. However, it may take a quarter or two to get used to having Mitchell dominate the ball again. Because of that, I will bet the Jazz to win this game in the second half after settling in and evening up the series against an inferior team.
Pick: Jazz second half -3.5
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers (-8, 230.5)
Game 2: 76ers 120, Wizards 95 (76ers lead series 2-0)
Snellings: The 76ers and Wizards opened their seasons against one another and have played four times overall, including the playoffs. Outside of the very first game of the season, the 76ers have consistently scored major points (average 131; minimum 125 in last three meetings). The Wizards kept it close with large scoring outputs of their own in two of those three meetings, with their star backcourt as the bellwether. In the two close games, Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal averaged a combined 64.5 PPG and 18.5 APG, while in the lopsided loss they combined for 44 points and nine assists.
Thus, this game swings on the Wizards' backcourt. If they show up and show out, we're looking at another high-scoring thriller. On the other hand, if they don't, the 76ers could easily post a lopsided win akin to what we saw from the Bucks on Monday. I'll bet on Westbrook and Beal coming in with urgency and making this another competitive track meet.
Pick: Wizards +8, over 230.5
Fulghum: The 76ers are superior to the Wizards in every way. Westbrook is still a magician, but Philadelphia has all kinds of bodies to throw at him on the perimeter, not to mention Joel Embiid lurking in the paint. Washington shot 56% from the field in Game 1 and 40% from deep. I think those numbers come down as Doc Rivers asks his team to demoralize and bury this opponent.
Pick: 76ers second half -3.5, Wizards team total under 111.5
Marks: Beal is certainly over his hamstring issue and has been balling out, averaging over 30 points per game over his last five games. He put up 33 points on 56% shooting while playing 41 minutes in Game 1. Ben Simmons is no match for a healthy Beal. And Tobias Harris is going to play a huge role in this series, especially if the refs keep Embiid in foul trouble. Harris put up 37 points (shooting 52%) and had six boards in Game 1. How is this line only 28.5?
Pick: Beal over 30.5 points (-115), Harris over 28.5 points + rebounds (-120)
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (-2, 213.5)
Game 2: Knicks 101, Hawks 92 (Series tied 1-1)
Snellings: This shaped up as one of the closest series of the first round, and I picked the Hawks to win in six at home. However, after stealing Game 1, the Hawks have the opportunity to make this a short, lopsided series if they take the first two games in New York. Therefore, I'm expecting the Knicks to give their best punch in this game and really grind out a Knicks-style victory. That means lots of defense -- particularly against Trae Young, who shushed their home crowd in Game 1 -- and a physical game all-around.
The Hawks have the game to take this one as well, but if they do then we'd be looking at a potential sweep. I think the Knicks step up and even the series heading back to Atlanta.
Pick: Knicks -2, under 213.5
Kezirian: Did everyone watch Denver's performance in Game 2? I think the Knicks will follow a similar script and even up this series. We routinely witness these situations where a more desperate playoff team wins the 50-50 balls and sees its role players perform much better. Meanwhile, the road team relaxes after accomplishing its main objective -- win one of the first two games.
This is by no means an automatic win, but it's a narrative that certainly has produced positive results when betting the NBA postseason. And that's good enough for me, especially because I know I will get maximum effort from the Knicks.
Pick: Knicks -2
Marks: Young poked the bear in Game 1, and that is the last thing you want to do at the Garden! Knicks fans are going to be brutal in Game 2. Not to take anything away from Trae's floater -- it was a beauty -- but the Knicks should have won that game. I expect New York to shoot better than 33% from downtown this time around.
I do like Clint Capela dominating the boards with Nerlens Noel's ankle issue; he should own the paint.
Pick: Knicks -2, Capella over 15.5 rebounds (+105)
Game 1 picks
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks (-5, 227)
Game 1: Bucks 109, Heat 107
Fulghum: Milwaukee was bounced by the Heat in last year's postseason, and although the Bucks are a better team with the upgrade to Jrue Holiday at point guard, Miami is still a miserable matchup for Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. Bam Adebayo is the most capable Giannis eraser in the world. The two-time NBA MVP played Miami three times this season, averaging just 16.7 PPG. That was even worse than the 21.8 PPG he was held to in last year's playoff loss. Miami can defend; it can shoot the 3; and Jimmy Butler fears absolutely nothing.
Pick: Heat (+240) to win series, Antetokounmpo under 29.5 points (Game 1), under 227 (Game 1)
Fortenbaugh: My apologies to the great people of Milwaukee, but I don't trust your Bucks. I do, however, greatly trust Butler, who has led Miami to an exceptional 33-19 record when he has played this season. Take note that the Heat have gone just 7-13 in games without Butler this year, so his impact is very, very real. Throw in Miami's improved road record (19-17 this season) as well as the club's distinct coaching advantage (Erik Spoelstra vs. Mike Budenholzer) and you've got both a Game 1 and series bet I'm interested in making.
Pick: Heat +5 in Game 1, Heat to win series (+240)
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (-3, 212.5)
Game 1: Suns 99, Lakers 90
Kezirian: The Lakers escaped Wednesday's play-in game with the Warriors, but I do not think they will be as lucky in this series opener. James posted a triple-double, but he still seems limited as he recovers from an ankle injury that forced him to miss 20 straight games. Anthony Davis also still looks bothered by the various injuries he has battled this season. Additionally, I think Phoenix is a very good team at full strength. The Suns finished the regular season ranking fifth in offensive efficiency and average scoring margin. I do think the Suns have what they need to win this series, but I am going to start with Game 1, which is where LeBron typically struggles, seemingly using it to feel out his opponent. The Lakers lost Game 1 in each of their first two playoff series last year.
Pick: Suns -3
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (-1, 215)
Game 1: Hawks 107, Knicks 105
Fortenbaugh: Playoff basketball returns to Madison Square Garden for the first time since 2013 and the Knicks are scorching hot, having won 16 of their final 20 games of the regular season. New York's defense ranks first in points allowed and fourth in defensive efficiency and should benefit greatly from a full week of rest, considering how hard this team plays night in and night out.
I expect this to be the most competitive series of the first round. But keep in mind the fact that the Hawks went just 16-20 on the road this season.
Pick: Knicks -1 in Game 1, Knicks win series in 7 games +450