Despite posting the league's best record in each of the past two seasons, making key additions in Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker and posting the No. 2 net rating in the league, the Milwaukee Bucks remain at least somewhat underrated as true NBA title contenders, overshadowed by teams such as the Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers. The Bucks are tied for the fifth-best championship odds, per Caesars Sportsbook, and they're less often discussed as one of the true top-tier teams compared to a year ago.
Part of that is understandable: This Milwaukee group has been unable to translate past regular-season success into Finals trips. But the Bucks continue to place among the top teams in the league in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), currently ranking third overall, with the fifth-best playoff-adjusted BPI (behind the Jazz, Nets, Lakers and 76ers).
Why is BPI so high on the Bucks? Even with some superteams standing in the way, let's explore the case for Milwaukee as the East's best team -- one with a much better chance to break through in the postseason this time around.
The case for Milwaukee
The Bucks have made a series of fundamental changes to their team since getting torched by the Miami Heat in the second round of the 2020 playoffs -- all with the express purpose of becoming more formidable in the postseason.
That starts with Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP and reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Last season, the Bucks built their entire offense and defense around Giannis. Offensively, he used more possessions than any other player in the NBA with a league-leading 37.5% usage rate, and his plus-7.2 offensive real plus-minus (ORPM) ranked No. 1 overall. Defensively, the Bucks funneled opponent drives directly to Antetokounmpo and their other bigs, who locked down the paint.
This approach paid dividends in the regular season, when the Bucks turned in the NBA's best defensive rating and the sixth-best offensive rating. However, the Heat were able to take advantage of weaknesses in the Bucks' approach, just like the Toronto Raptors did in 2019. The Giannis-centric offense was too predictable for postseason defenses that could wall off the paint with strong defenders. Without Giannis as the creator, the other Bucks were unable to generate enough team offense to keep up. And at the other end of the court, the Bucks' defense was susceptible to 3-point shooting and creative playmaking, particularly from teams utilizing on-ball picks with big men capable of taking advantage of the Bucks' non-switching scheme.
The Bucks have reconfigured their approach this season. Giannis' usage rate is down 5 percentage points to 32.5% as the Bucks have ceded more playmaking responsibilities to their perimeter players. The more dynamic offense has already made the MVP's life easier. According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Bucks are running more on-ball picks for Giannis this season and he's producing at a much more efficient clip in those sets (1.2 points per chance, up from 0.95 points per chance last season). In fact, per Second Spectrum, Giannis is scoring more efficiently in sets featuring picks, isos, post-ups and handoffs this season compared to last.
The Bucks' backcourt also has been much more productive. Holiday and Donte DiVincenzo are averaging a combined 26.6 PPG, 8.1 APG and 3.8 3s per game (while converting 39.2% of those attempts). That's up across the board from the 22.3 PPG, 6.9 APG, 2.8 3PG and 35.4 3P% posted by last season's starting duo of Eric Bledsoe and Wesley Matthews. DiVincenzo has been a revelation this year, ranking seventh among shooting guards with an RPM of plus-3.5 points.
In the postseason, the Bucks are hoping that Holiday will prove more reliable and productive as a secondary offensive engine than the man he was traded for. During his three seasons with the Bucks, Bledsoe's production dropped consistently and dramatically in the playoff rounds. Holiday's most recent playoff experience with the Pelicans demonstrated the exact opposite trend, as his 2018 averages increased from 19.0 PPG on a 57.0 true shooting percentage (TS%) to 23.7 PPG with a 58.1 TS%. Holiday will be relied upon to step up his game yet again when teams wall-up against Giannis.
Khris Middleton, the third All-Star in the Bucks' starting lineup, has also increased his playmaking and improved his 3-point shooting. He is averaging more than 20 PPG and flirting with the 50/40/90 club for the second straight season, but he is quietly averaging a career-best 5.4 APG, which is more than a full assist per game higher than his previous best.
Defensively, the Bucks have joined the leaguewide trend by switching more instead of funneling everything to the middle. This takes defensive pressure off of Giannis and Brook Lopez, distributing responsibility more evenly among the perimeter players while helping them defend the 3-point line.
The 6-foot-5 Tucker, known as one of the toughest and most reliable playoff defenders in the NBA, has made his living as a small-ball big man and 3-and-D stalwart for the past few years. As Kevin Pelton pointed out when evaluating the pre-deadline Bucks-Rockets trade, Tucker has switched the second-most picks of any big man in the NBA since signing with Houston in 2017-18. This gives the Bucks a strong defensive rotation up front, featuring Giannis and either Tucker for switching situations or Lopez for more traditional paint-defending situations.
The Bucks have had some growing pains in implementing their new approach, currently sitting at the No. 3 in the East, but they have dealt with an extended COVID-19 absence from Holiday in the middle of the season. With Holiday in the lineup, the Bucks have won 71% of their games (24-10) with a plus-8.3 scoring margin, both of which would rank as tops in the conference. And the outcome of this approach is a more playoff-friendly style that will make them a tougher out.
The much-improved 76ers are on top of the conference and the Nets are loaded with All-Stars, but Milwaukee has the talent and scheme to take either team in a seven-game series. Previous iterations of the Bucks couldn't get it done, but there's compelling evidence that this is a different -- and better -- team than before.