The 2021 NFL draft takes place April 29-May 1, which gives us an opportunity to look at some betting futures for the incoming class. Our betting experts -- Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks, Tyler Fulghum, Mike Clay and Seth Walder, as well as Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz -- offer their best prop bets as draft day approaches.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill unless noted otherwise.
Jump to:
Position Props | Player Props | Team Props
Position Props
Over 5.5 QBs in first round (+375)
Fulghum: We know five quarterbacks will be taken in the first round -- likely within the first 15 picks. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones are slam-dunk first-round picks in the upcoming draft. While not quite having the same draft prospect profile as those five QBs, players like Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills and Jamie Newman have projectable NFL skills that could attract NFL teams.
How does one of them end up in the first round? In recent years we've seen smart teams take advantage of the rookie CBA and extra fifth-year option that first-round picks get attached to their rookie deals. The Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson) and the Green Bay Packers (Jordan Love) are two teams that have traded back into the late first round to select a "QB of the future" and attach an extra year of control to his valuable rookie deal.
Teams like Denver, New England, Atlanta, and Chicago might find themselves trying this tactic if they don't have a QB they want available with their initial first-round pick or can't move up to acquire one. The great value (+375) also makes it an enticing wager.
Marks: Quarterbacks we know will go in the first round are Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Lance and Fields. The incentive for a team to take a QB in the first round is the additional year a club gains on his rookie deal; therefore I believe a team or teams will trade back into the bottom of the first round and select Mond and/or Mills.
Over 18.5 offensive players in first round (-115)
Fallica: The best numbers are gone here, but 19 is still the number I keep coming up with at minimum. We know for sure there will be five quarterbacks, one tight end, six offensive linemen and five wide receivers. That's 17 right there. We're very likely to get at least one more receiver and O-lineman, bringing us to my predicted number of 19. It's still possible that running back Najee Harris could go in Round 1, and you never know what team might really reach on a quarterback for that contract control. Congrats to those who were able to get a 17.5 or an 18, but I think you're still OK at 18.5.
Over 4.5 WRs in first round (-210)
Fallica: I'd probably have little hesitation in laying that price over 5.5 wide receivers as well. There are seven wideouts I've seen mocked in the first round: DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, JaMarr Chase, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Terrace Marshall Jr. and Rashod Bateman. And that doesn't even include guys like Rondale Moore, Dyami Brown and Tutu Atwell, who have been projected near the top of the second round. In today's NFL, it's all about getting weapons on the field, and it seems like over 4.5 wide receivers is almost free money.
Under 1.5 TEs in first round (-475)
Fallica: Look, laying big juice isn't for everyone. But what tight end other than Kyle Pitts is going in the first round? Hunter Long from BC? I'd be shocked if that happened, and if it does, I'll just have to tip my cap to the team that selects him.
Under 6.5 offensive linemen in first round (-130)
Walder: This might be the strongest the Draft Day Predictor feels about any prop on the board. We can lock Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater, Christian Darrisaw, Alijah Vera-Tucker and probably Teven Jenkins into the first round. But that means the over still needs two of Alex Leatherwood, Jalen Mayfield, Liam Eichenberg, Samuel Cosmi and Dillon Radunz. They each have a chance, but those numbers are small. It gives Leatherwood a 7% shot, Mayfield a 6% shot, etc. But here's the key: Those are also not independent from one another. If Leatherwood gets picked in the late first, that makes Mayfield less likely to go in the first round because a spot -- and likely even an OL-needy spot -- went to the Alabama tackle.
Over 0.5 safeties in first round (-210)
Walder: This is basically just asking: will TCU's Trevon Moehrig be drafted in Round 1? Though since we're on the over, we get a little gravy with a slim chance that Jevon Holland or Richie Grant slip into the end of the first round, too. Given the range of outcomes for all three safeties, our model puts the cumulative chance of at least one of them going in the first at a whopping 92%. That might feel scarily different from the market, but even if the model is a little off, there's a lot of room between 68% (the rate needed to break even on this bet) and 92% to be at least directionally correct.
Player Props
Mac Jones is third overall pick (-360)
Marks: I was all over Jones early, even before the 49ers traded up to No. 3. I believe he is the second-best quarterback in this class. He processes the game better than most, is one of only two coming out this year who are pro ready, and did more with less at Alabama than Tua. More importantly, he fits Kyle Shanahan's system the best and can step in and start for the 49ers Week 1.
Travis Etienne first RB drafted (+160)
Clay: Etienne is a big underdog to Najee Harris (-145), but there is no consensus among draft analysts as to how the "big three" RBs (Etienne, Harris, Javonte Williams) should be ordered, and that surely applies to front offices as well. That being said, the large gap in juice is surprising. If, for example, Pittsburgh (picking 24th) is the first to select a back and prefers the speedy Etienne to Harris, this is a winner at a very nice profit. We don't know whom the running back-needy teams prefer, and acknowledging that can be advantageous here. Williams is obviously riskier, but his extremely efficient 2020 and age (one year younger than Etienne and two years younger than Harris) makes him interesting at +475.
Jaycee Horn first CB drafted (+300)
Fallica: Obviously Patrick Surtain II is a big favorite here, but Horn is a little quicker, a little more explosive and can play all the corner spots. There are teams out there that like him more than Surtain. Whether it's the right team to make him the first cornerback off the board, we'll see. But at this price, I'm going to take a nibble. Remember, too, Alabama cornerbacks often come into the league almost at their peak because of the high level of play, coaching and teammates they had in Tuscaloosa.
Rashawn Slater first OL drafted (+280)
Clay: Penei Sewell is the heavy favorite at -750 and very well could be picked by the Bengals fifth overall. However, the book also has Sewell at -190 to go after the fifth pick, which opens up a ton of possibilities. One of them is certainly Slater, whom some teams reportedly prefer, coming off the board first. It's enough of a possibility that it's worth considering at +280.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah first LB drafted (+600)
Marks: I love Micah Parsons. He is hands down the best linebacker in this draft class. Parsons has rare athleticism and is a good athlete, but he has a lot of off-the-field issues and teams have major concerns with his maturity level. Parsons will fall, but how far? Due to Parson's red flags, Owusu-Koramoah will be the first linebacker selected. I do expect over 4.5 LBs to be take in Round 1 (+150)
Micah Parsons first defensive player drafted (+450)
Walder: It's very easy to dot-connect Patrick Surtain II to the corner-needy Cowboys at No. 10, which is presumably why he's the odds-on favorite here. But don't we know the draft isn't always that easy? Teams don't always draft for need, and trades can really end up shaking things up. And Parsons? He's only Scouts Inc.'s top-rated defender in the draft. And he's available ... at +450. Just saying.
Richie Grant first safety taken (+650)
Marks: This safety class is a weak one. Many believe Trevon Moehrig will be the first safety selected, but UCF's Grant is sneaking up the board and might not get past the Raiders at 17. Therefore, I'm also taking Vegas as the first team to grab a safety at 10-1.
Kyle Pitts draft position under 5.5 (-170)
Clay: It has become apparent that Pitts is viewed by analysts and teams as perhaps the best player in this draft aside from Trevor Lawrence, and that is reflected in the fact that he's the favorite to be the first non-QB selected at -110. And it's certainly safe to assume the first five picks won't all be quarterbacks (it has never happened). Add those sentences up and Pitts has a very good shot to go to Atlanta at fourth overall or Cincinnati at fifth overall. The juice isn't great at -170, but it's also hard to imagine Pitts slips any further than fifth.
Pitts first non-QB drafted (-135); draft position under 5.5 (-170)
Fortenbaugh: The first three selections will be quarterbacks followed by Florida tight end Pitts to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 4, cashing both of these propositions. I fully understand the fact that Atlanta needs to think about finding Matt Ryan's eventual successor, but Ryan's contract runs for three more seasons and has a dead cap charge of $70.9 million in 2021, $40.5 million in 2022 and $15.6 million in 2023. That means if Atlanta were to cut or trade Ryan prior to the start of the 2022 campaign, he would still count for $40.5 million toward the Falcons' salary cap that year, which would be an unprecedented number. Does Atlanta really want to draft a rookie quarterback and then sit him for two seasons? Draft Pitts and play him alongside wide receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Ryan has plenty left in the tank.
Marks: The Falcons are getting a gift from the football gods if Pitts falls to them at 4. Make no mistake about it, Pitts is the best player in this draft. I will go so far to say that Pitts has the ability to be one of the best tight ends to ever play the game. Atlanta would be making one of the biggest mistakes in franchise history if it were to pass on Pitts. Any defense in the NFL would be hard pressed to stop the Falcons in the red zone with both Pitts and Jones on the line. I also like the Falcons as the first team to take a tight end at -120.
Kezirian: I have bet Pitts to be the first non-QB taken a few times with lower juice and I still think it has value at -135. I would not go above -160. He probably would have won the Heisman Trophy over DeVonta Smith, if he had played in all of Florida's games. Mel Kiper Jr. has rated him higher than any other tight end in his career. Pitts can make an immediate impact next season and could go as high as #3 to San Francisco, although that is a longshot. Do you really think a front office can justify taking a WR over a guy like Pitts, who can also line up outside?
I also like Pitts at under 5.5 as he is the best non-QB in the draft and thus will not drop that far. The juice may seem pricey at -170 but I think it should be near -300. I do not think Pitts will fall past the Bengals at #5, if he even gets there. The Atlanta Falcons could easily pull the trigger at #4, if they truly believe Matt Ryan and the new offense can make a run next season.
Pitts over draft pick 5.5 (+140)
Schatz: I am going to disagree with my esteemed colleagues here, based on the importance of quarterbacks in the modern NFL. It's hard to imagine that the Falcons in the fourth overall selection will pass up on the opportunity to either (a) add the heir apparent for Matt Ryan or (b) trade down with a quarterback-needy team and get a substantial haul of picks to help a team with holes across the roster. Then we just suppose Cincinnati drafts either Penei Sewell or a wide receiver, probably Ja'Marr Chase, and there you go -- Pitts has fallen past 5.5 despite the fact that he is probably the best talent in the draft relative to the average player at his position. The Guiding the Mocks final mock draft suggests Pitts will go sixth and that sounds about right.
Penei Sewell draft position under 5.5 (+155)
Fulghum: Sewell and Rashawn Slater are clearly the top two offensive tackle prospects in this class (with Sewell having the slightly better prospect profile due to age, size/strength, agility).
Cincinnati already has capable receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but its offensive line can improve in three spots by drafting Sewell to protect Joe Burrow's blind side -- LT, RT (Riley Reiff), OG (Jonah Williams) -- and can draft a wide receiver with 38th overall pick in second round; Terrace Marshall Jr. (LSU), Rondale Moore (Purdue). Kadarius Toney (Florida) and Rashod Bateman (Minnesota) all might be available.
Clay: The Bengals pick fifth overall and are a very popular landing spot for Sewell in mock drafts across the industry, including the latest by Mel and Todd. It's very possible the Bengals end up with a wide receiver (Ja'Marr Chase) or tight end (Kyle Pitts), especially considering their propensity for three-plus-WR sets, but the key here, of course, is the +155 juice. The Bengals have a major need along the offensive line, Sewell is one of the best players in the draft and there's a near-100% chance he'll be available when they pick at No. 5. There's a good possibility this connection happens, so with that juice, it's a solid bet. Also, if you expect the Bengals to go O-line but you want to hedge on Sewell vs. the underdog Rashawn Slater, you can also get OL as the Bengals' first drafted player exact playing position at +125.
Marks: Burrow might be lobbying for the Bengals to draft his ex-LSU teammate (WR Chase), but after Burrow injured his knee last season, the Bengals have to go offensive line with the fifth pick. Burrow didn't just tear an ACL, he tore much more inside his knee, and if he is able to play when the season starts, he will be wearing a knee brace. The Bengals need to protect the face of their franchise, and Sewell should be available when their number is called. A few scouts I have spoken with believe that Alijah Vera-Tucker (I like the under on 16.5 at -115) and Landon Dickerson are better linemen than Sewell, and I don't believe Vera-Tucker gets past the Chargers at 13 (I'm also taking the Chargers to go O-line at -130). I expect six offensive linemen to go in the first round, so I'm taking under 6.5 at +100.
Penei Sewell draft position over 5.5 (-170)
Kezirian: I would keep an eye on this juice and pull the trigger if it drops to -150 or below. Personally, I bet it a few times between -105 and -130. I understand Cincinnati's need for an offensive lineman and Sewell may be the guy but I just think the allure of Kyle Pitts or Ja'Marr Chase will be too tempting. Plus, if other teams start to trade up for one of those studs, then this is an easy winner. I get the attraction of plus-money on the under but just think about what needs to fall your way in order to cash the ticket.
Ja'Marr Chase draft position over 5.5 (-115)
Marks: Assuming Pitts is off the board at No. 4 with Atlanta, I believe the Dolphins go WR with the sixth pick. I spoke with a few scouts who do not believe Chase is the best wide receiver in this draft, but I believe his size sets him apart from both Smith and Waddle. The Dolphins are all-in on Tua, and they'll provide him another weapon to work with on offense.
Trey Lance draft position over 6.5 (+115)
Fortenbaugh: I'm predicting Lawrence to Jacksonville as the first overall selection (shocker), BYU signal-caller Zach Wilson to the Jets at No. 2, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones to San Francisco at No. 3, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts to Atlanta at No. 4 and either Oregon OT Penei Sewell or LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase to the Bengals at No. 5. Miami is drafting at No. 6 and the Dolphins don't need a quarterback after selecting Tua Tagovailoa out of Alabama at No. 5 last spring, so that would mean Lance falls outside of the top six selections. My only concern is a team trading up with Miami to nab Lance, but that worry is worth the price of doing business at +115.
Patrick Surtain II draft position under 10.5 (-145)
Marks: Surtain is the best defensive player in this draft. His father taught him well, and Nick Saban coached him up to be pro ready from day one. Surtain is a three-year starter at Alabama who plays big, long and fast. Dallas will be fortunate to grab him at 10, and he should be the first defensive player selected (-130). Some scouts feel Jaycee Horn is the best corner in this draft, and if he is still on the board at 11, I believe the Giants select him in a New York minute (I like him under 12.5 at +100 and the Giants to take a CB at +550 or defensive player at -110). I anticipate Surtain, Horn, Eric Stokes, Greg Newsome II and Caleb Farley all to go in the first round, so give me over 4.5 cornerbacks at -130.
Alijah Vera-Tucker draft position over 16.5 (-115)
Walder: This is a pick with conviction from our Draft Day Predictor, which forecasts the range of draft outcomes for prospects based on mocks, team needs and Scouts Inc. grades. Our model thinks there's an 80% chance Vera-Tucker makes it to pick No. 17, a strong value against the current line. That many expect Vera-Tucker to be a guard cannot help his chances of going in the first half of the first round, either. That being said, our model does expect him to go off the board quickly after the line, with a 60% chance he's selected within the first 21 picks.
Caleb Farley draft position over 20.5 (-150)
Schatz: At one point, Farley was in competition with Patrick Surtain II to be the first cornerback drafted. The announcement of a surgical procedure on his back has pushed him down mock drafts, and mock drafts are surprisingly accurate when it comes to predicting what NFL teams will do. A number of mock drafts have linked Farley to the Indianapolis Colts at No. 21, but he's an even better scheme fit for a team that's even more needy at cornerback, the division rival Tennessee Titans at No. 22.
Caleb Farley first CB drafted (10-1)
Kezirian: This is when you have to remind yourself that mock drafts are performed by connecting dots and filtering misinformation. All these moneylines and odds are based on speculation and potential facts. So, it is dangerous to lay significant lumber and a few longshots do make sense. Farley has the talent to be the top defensive player drafted. However, injuries have hampered his career and draft stock - and he could even fall to the second round. But all it takes is one team to fall in love with the talent and potential. At 10-1, I recommend taking a small piece. Personally, I already bet this at 14-1.
Jaelan Phillips draft position under 22.5 (-115)
Marks: Phillips will fall due to a number of concerns -- injuries (he was actually hit by a car), he has quit football a time or two -- but when defensive coordinators watch his tape, they salivate. There will be defensive-minded head coaches who won't allow him to fall below 22. In fact, I have a hard time seeing him get past the Vikings at 14. I expect four defensive linemen to go in the first round, so I'm taking under 4.5 at -150.
Najee Harris draft position under 28.5 (-130); first RB taken (-145)
Marks: The running back selected first between Harris and Etienne will depend on a team's offensive philosophy. I favor Etienne more than Harris because he has more juice and reminds me of Alvin Kamara, but I believe Harris will be the first back drafted, either to the Dolphins at 18 or the Steelers at 24. Many teams are falling in love with Javonte Williams but think he will still be available in the second round.
Kadarius Toney draft position under 29.5 (-115)
Marks: This year's wide receiver class is extremely deep. There are many teams that feel they will be able to get a great pass-catcher in the later rounds. We know Chase, Smith and Waddle will go in the first round. One receiver moving up the board is Toney, and I hear there are several teams in love with him -- the Saints being one (I like the Saints +350 to take WR with their first pick and +140 to take an offensive player with their first selection). Toney can be utilized in a number of ways, and I believe he will be the fourth wide receiver taken Thursday night. The fifth could be Rashod Bateman, but I believe he will fall to the top of the second round. Therefore, I also like under 4.5 wideouts taken in the first round at +230.
Team Props
Dallas Cowboys' first player exact position: Tight end (+2000)
Clay: Okay, sometimes you want to have some fun and put a few bucks on a long shot, right? Here's your chance. There are rumors that Dallas is interested in Kyle Pitts, and we know Jerry Jones isn't afraid to be aggressive. Pitts is likely to come off the board early, but if he slips even a little (a possibility if teams trade up for a QB), Dallas could then trade up a few spots and pull off the shocker by grabbing Pitts. Yes, defense should be the priority for Dallas, but it's not crazy to think Jones will try to create a super offense by adding Pitts to Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Ezekiel Elliott as weapons for Dak Prescott. And, of course, this is worth a look only because it's +2000 (a cool five bucks makes you $105).
Carolina Panthers' first player exact position: QB (+425)
Marks: Many are predicting the Panthers draft an offensive lineman with their first pick, and chances are Rashawn Slater will still be on the board. I'm hearing that even though they traded for Sam Darnold, they would still consider drafting Trey Lance with the eighth pick, if he is still on the board. I expect the 49ers to draft Mac Jones at No. 6, Trey Lance to fall and the Dolphins, Lions and Panthers to receive a lot of calls from teams that want to move up to draft Lance. I would not be shocked if Carolina turns them all down and selects the North Dakota State QB.
Detroit Lions' first player exact position: Wide receiver (+125)
Clay: The Lions pick seventh, and while a trade down could really mess this one up on you, it seems very likely that selecting a star wide receiver is their priority here. Of the seven WRs who played a snap for Detroit last season, only one remains on the roster: 2020 fifth-round pick Quintez Cephus. Otherwise, it's oft-injured Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams (missed all of 2020), Geronimo Allison (2020 opt-out) and Kalif Raymond (return man with 30 career targets). All four veterans are on one-year deals. It's hard not to like this one at +125.
Philadelphia Eagles' position of first player: Defense (+120)
Clay: The Eagles have a need at wide receiver, so DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle would be a logical fit at 12th overall. However, Philadelphia took a wideout in the first round in 2020, and that's notable, as no team has selected a wide receiver in the first round in back-to-back drafts in 15 years. If the Eagles don't go WR (because they choose not to or because Waddle and Smith aren't available), it's extremely likely they lean defense. If not WR, their biggest need is CB (Patrick Surtain II or Jaycee Horn could be available), LB could be an option (Micah Parsons) and they have a history of preferring edge rushers (Kwity Paye). At +120, this one is well worth a look. That applies to a lot of the "playing position of first drafted player" props available for teams selecting in the mid-to-late rounds, including the Titans +130 to go offense (WR is a good possibility) and the Colts +110 to go defense (QB, RB, WR seem unlikely, a TE isn't in range and OL is possible, but also a strong point on the roster). You can also get CB at +190, LB at +800 and DL at +1000 for "Eagles' first drafted player exact playing position," with the first one the most attractive.
Baltimore Ravens' position of first player: Offense (-110)
Fortenbaugh: Did you notice how many free-agent wide receivers turned down more money with the Ravens in order to sign elsewhere for less this past offseason? It happened with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who went back to Pittsburgh, as well as T.Y. Hilton, who stayed in Indianapolis. The working theory is that Baltimore is a run-first offense with an inconsistent passing attack that will lower a wide receiver's statistical ceiling. Well, guess what? Rookies can't sign elsewhere. So this is how the Ravens will upgrade their receiving unit, unless they look to draft an offensive lineman after trading Orlando Brown to the Chiefs last week.
Tennessee Titans' position of first player: Defense (-160)
Marks: Tennessee lost Adoree Jackson in free agency and has a very weak secondary. The Titans should draft for need, and that need will be cornerback. I expect Greg Newsome II to fall to them at 22, but if Christian Barmore is still on the board, that will be an interesting draft room conversion. I'm also taking Tennessee at +225 to go cornerback with its first pick.
Washington's position of first player: Defense (+180)
Marks: Many are expecting Washington to take a quarterback in the first round, but I hear the team also loves LB Jamin Davis from Kentucky. Davis had three interceptions in 2020 and is long and lean, which is what defensive coordinators look for these days. I'm also in on Washington taking a linebacker with its first pick at 3-1.
Los Angeles Chargers to draft Offensive Lineman with first pick (-130)
Kezirian: The Chargers just hired Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley as their next head coach but I would not make any assumptions of defense being his focus. This team absolutely needs to draft a left tackle after overhauling the entire offensive line this offseason. Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater figure to be gone by time the Chargers draft at #13. Christian Darrisaw should be available. If not, Alijah Vera-Tucker is on the table due to his athleticism. Justin Herbert won Rookie of the Year and the team needs to protect his blind side with its first pick. At -130, the odds reflect a 57% chance and I feel it is much higher than that.
Minnesota Vikings to draft Offensive player with first pick (-110)
Kezirian: I am very surprised by this line. The Vikings addressed their secondary issues through free agency and now must address the offensive line. There are four quality first-rounders and one should fall to the Vikes at #14. Remember, there will be a run of wide receivers in the top 10. When you factor four quarterbacks and four pass-catchers (Pitts, Chase, Smith, Waddle), then that leaves five picks before Minnesota. Obviously defensive players will start to go so I think Minnesota will be safe. I would bet this all the way up to -150. Plus, you can always bet Offensive Lineman for Minnesota's first pick at +120.
Total ACC Players Drafted In Round 1: Over 5.5 (+110)
Walder: Our Draft Day Predictor absolutely loves this one. The key here -- and we checked with Caesars William Hill on this -- is that Notre Dame does count in this prop. Given that, there are three locks to go in the first round: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Darrisaw and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Then we've got two players that aren't certainties but are very likely to hear their name called on Thursday: Caleb Farley and Jaelan Phillips. That puts us at 5. There's no one particularly likely player to be selected in the first after that, but there's a host of players who could. Travis Etienne, Gregory Rousseau, Asante Samuel Jr., Javonte Williams, Dyami Brown, Liam Eichenberg. Together, there's a really strong chance at least one of them is.
I'm almost afraid to say our number because it's so different from the market but here goes: the Draft Day Predictor thinks there's an 83% chance that the over hits here, given all that information above. Can't say it doesn't have strong takes.