March Madness enters its final weekend with the Final Four and title game, which means plenty of betting opportunities, both on individual games and in futures. Our experts -- ESPN analysts Doug Kezirian, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Joe Fortenbaugh and Dalen Cuff -- are here to give their best bets for the final weekend.
Through Final Four
Kezirian (11-9)
Fortenbaugh (6-10)
Cuff (8-8)
Fallica (7-5)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
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Championship
1. Baylor Bears vs. 1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4.5, 159.5)
Monday, 9:20 p.m. ET
Over 159.5
Fortenbaugh: Gonzaga is averaging 86.8 points per game in regulation through five March Madness showdowns thanks to a combination of the country's top-ranked offense and seventh-ranked tempo. But the Bulldogs are just 2-3 to the over in those five aforementioned showdowns because the opposition has, at times, found itself so far behind that Gonzaga could grind the game down to a halt in the second half. Enter Baylor, which is more than up for the challenge of going toe-to-toe with the tournament's top seed. The Bears rank first in the NCAA in 3-point shooting but just 120th when it comes to 2-point defense. This is a critical stat to consider because the Bulldogs generate 57.7% of their scoring from 2-point range (26th in the NCAA). I believe that Baylor will be more willing to engage at Gonzaga's tempo than the other way around, which should pave the way for a shootout.
Baylor +4.5
Cuff: This is the championship game everyone wanted since December. These teams truly match up well. They are the top two teams in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and are creative both individually and collectively. This will be an up-tempo game with shot-makers everywhere. The offenses are dynamic, but the defenses are underrated. Baylor's physicality and ability to guard on the perimeter is something Gonzaga has not seen much of this year. This game will come down to who can string together three or four stops and dictate the game in short bursts. I'm not sure who's going to win. I think this could easily be a one-possession game either way. Because of that, I'm going to go with the Bears and the points.
Gonzaga -4.5; Gonzaga -200 ML
Fallica: The narrative has been set after Gonzaga's OT winner over UCLA -- "if UCLA did that to Gonzaga, what will Baylor do to the Bulldogs?" I think its a little unfair to Gonzaga, as it played really well offensively. The Bulldogs had 25 assists on 37 field goals and made 30 of 42 2-point shots (71%). What we saw was an historic, high level game Saturday night, and I think Gonzaga will come out better on the other end. The Bulldogs learned a lot about themselves; they were a huge favorite, took UCLA's best shot with an undefeated season on the line and survived. In a sense, the pressure is off now. They are here in the game everyone expected we would see, and now its time to just go out and play ball. I expect to see them rise to the occasion and finish off their perfect season.
Matthew Mayer over 8.5 points -125
Cuff: Matthew Mayer is a pro and maybe the most underrated talent in the country. Just ask teammate and fellow stud Davion Mitchell, who has said Mayer is the best offensive player on the team. He comes off the bench looking to score. He only plays 39% of the minutes but gets up 26% of the shots when he's on the floor, which is second-highest on the team. With so many great guards, his teammates find him for open 3s (40% 3-point shooter), and he also has the ability to create off the bounce. This is going to be a high-possession game and Mayer as always will come in looking to get shots up. I think he exceeds his season average of 8.3 points per game, which puts us in the money.
Baylor team total over 77.5
Kezirian: I lean to Baylor and the points but the wager that carries the most confidence for me is Baylor over the team total of 77.5. Gonzaga's most glaring issue is defensive athleticism around the rim. I think the Bears will lean on their superb athletes and attack the rim with ease. UCLA pretty much had its way in that regard, although they made several tough shots. Plus, the Bears led the nation in three-point shooting at 41.8%. As long as they avoid a brickhouse, that will play a large role. Scott Drew will likely look to maintain a fast pace so we should have an up-and-down game. Gonzaga is a special team and may emerge victorious to cap off an undefeated season. If it does, its offense will lead the way but I would not be shocked if Baylor pulls off the upset. I think the Bears will reach 80 points and prefer avoiding worrying about who covers.
Final Four
2. Houston Cougars vs. 1. Baylor Bears (-5, 134)
Over 134 points
Fortenbaugh: Virtually every conceivable metric suggests that Houston boasts one of the country's premier defensive units. I'm not disagreeing with the analytics, but I would like to raise the point that the Cougars, for as good as they've been, have not faced an offense anywhere close to Baylor's explosiveness. The key to this bet comes on the glass, as both teams rank inside the top seven in offensive rebounding but outside the top 150 in defensive rebounding. So either the buckets are falling, which helps our over, or they aren't falling, but both squads are working the offensive glass and providing us putback after putback. Either way, I expect this to be a higher-scoring game than the total indicates.
Baylor -5
Kezirian: I am a little uncomfortable with how much everyone is penciling in a Baylor-Gonzaga title game. Frankly, most are writing it with a Sharpie. I have been backing Houston a lot and caution anyone who is dismissing the Cougars. Do realize they rank 2-3 in KenPom's rankings. Houston is a live 'dog, but ultimately I do believe in Baylor and its ability to maintain more consistency in this national semifinal. I love how the Bears can bleed clock with Davion Mitchell and his ability to get to the rim regardless of the defender. The Bears also make their free throws, as they demonstrated against Arkansas. I think it's a tough game, and Houston could even lead at halftime. But ultimately, Baylor grinds out a win. However, I would not lay 5.5. This is the most I would lay.
Cuff: Houston is a great defensive team and offensive rebounding team (second in the nation in offensive rebound rate). Congratulations on getting to the Final Four, but this is a massive step up in class for the Cougars. They've played one top-30 team in KenPom's rankings all year; that was Texas Tech in a November win. The American conference lacks many good teams or dynamic offensive players. The Cougars imposed their will physically on most opponents, and in the tournament it's been more of the same, without playing one single-digit-seed opponent. The Bears can match the physicality on both ends, will make an already average offense struggle even more to get good looks, and on the offensive side have the best group of guards in recent memory to break down the Cougars. The Bears will clean up their defensive glass enough and I think turn in an impressive performance en route to the final.
11. UCLA Bruins vs. 1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-14, 145.5)
Under 145.5
Kezirian: I do believe that UCLA has the right DNA for a relatively low-scoring game. First of all, Gonzaga exploited USC's weakness and pressed the Trojans. The guards were overwhelmed, and that led to fast-break points right from the tip and the Bulldogs' offense was off and running. However, Mick Cronin has a true point guard in Tyger Campbell, who will maintain UCLA's game plan and maintain composure. The Bruins will also implement a methodical half-court approach, trying to lean on Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. on each possession. Let's not forget about Gonzaga's defense, which ranks fifth in efficiency at KenPom.com. I envision measured UCLA possessions, somewhat limited Gonzaga fast-break points and low turnovers.
Gonzaga-UCLA first half over 69 points
Fortenbaugh: Gonzaga first-half overs have been money, as evidenced by the fact that the Bulldogs are averaging a healthy 45 points per game in the first half during their current tournament run. To put into perspective how impressive that truly is, keep in mind that UCLA beat Michigan in the Elite Eight with just 51 points total. Not only is Gonzaga holding up its end of the bargain, but so are its opponents, as Gonzaga's games during March Madness are averaging 75.2 points in the first half. The Bruins play at a slow pace, but the Bulldogs will force them to run or die like they have everybody else. Ride the train.
Gonzaga -8 first half
Cuff: We still haven't seen the best of Gonzaga in this tournament, but that's because the Bulldogs haven't had to play at their best for 40 minutes. They've been so dominant in their first halves that by the second half they spend 10-plus minutes playing in second gear. That puts the spread and the over/under in jeopardy because you just have no clue what you are going to get. However, in the first 20 minutes, we've seen all tournament you get everything they have to offer. That's been a theme all season. They've trailed only twice at halftime this season. Couple all that with how good they are closing halves to create separation or demoralize opponents and I love this bet.
UCLA has been a great story and the Bruins will try to grind the pace down like they always do (bottom 30 in the nation in tempo) -- but to no avail. Teams just cannot respond to Gonzaga's pace, space, ability, flow on offense and very underrated defense (top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency). I think the Bruins are no different and will trail significantly going into halftime.
Gonzaga -220 to win title
Fallica: We're down to a two-game money-line parlay for the Zags to win the title, and really it's a one-game money-line bet on Gonzaga vs. the Baylor-Houston winner, as I simply cannot see Gonzaga losing as an $11 favorite to UCLA. So if you figure Gonzaga will be around an 8-9-point favorite in the title game, that equates to around a -380/-400 money-line favorite in that one game. So I'd rather lay the -220 on a two-game parlay -- which is really more of a one-game bet -- than -380 in just the title game alone. Oh, the Bulldogs also are the best team and it will take a herculean effort by anyone at this point to beat them.
Elite Eight
1. Michigan Wolverines vs. 11. UCLA Bruins under 137 points
Fortenbaugh: 52.8 percent of UCLA's offense comes via the 2-pointer, which ranks 79th in the nation. I felt this tidbit was worthy of our opening sentence because Michigan is elite, with a capital E, when defending the rim this season, allowing the opposition to shoot just 42.6 percent from 2-point range (third in the NCAA). Throw in the fact that UCLA's defense is nothing to scoff at (55th) and that both teams rank well below the national average in terms of tempo (Michigan is 247th, UCLA 337th) and you've got a recipe for a tight, low-scoring affair.
6. USC Trojans (+9.5) vs. 1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Fortenbaugh: We're in unchartered waters here with a USC program that has closed as an underdog just five times in 32 games this season, never by more than than +3.5 points. Granted, Gonzaga is the best team in the nation, but the Bulldogs have yet to face a defense like USC's, which currently ranks fourth in the country. The Trojans are allowing opponents to shoot a paltry 41.5 percent from 2-point range this season, which is tops in all the land. Keep that aforementioned tidbit in mind, as Gonzaga generates 57.3 percent of its offense via the 2-pointer, which ranks 29th in the country. The 9.5 is too many points to lay here, in my opinion.
Gonzaga (-5 first half) vs. USC
Cuff: Gonzaga has trailed only twice at half time all year. The Bulldogs trailed by four to West Virginia and by12 to BYU. Obviously, they came back to win both games. USC will be the most physically imposing team the Zags have played since WVU, although with a different style. WVU then was more physical; USC is extremely long and athletic. The Zags could struggle to create as many easy looks and points in the point, but on the flip side the Zags' defense (seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency) is always overlooked.
USC is playing its best basketball right now, but everyone who has played the Zags always has an adjustment period on both ends of the floor. This Zags team is just different and always closes halves well to take the lead or create separation. I don't like laying 9.5 for the game, but I do think the Zags can take a lead into the break.
2. Houston Cougars (-8) vs. 12. Oregon State Beavers
Fortenbaugh: Apparently, the hill I'm willing to die on is affectionately known as "Mount Fade Oregon State," as I've bet against the Beavers -- and lost -- in each of their past four matchups, dating back to the Pac-12 tournament. Why, you ask, would I continue to partake in such foolish endeavors? Excellent question. The primary reason is that I simply refuse to believe that this program can continue to enjoy such ridiculous good fortune when it comes to the 3-point line.
Case in point, Oregon State has now played six games since the start of the Pac-12 tournament:
Oregon State is 50-for-120 from deep (41.7%)
Oregon State's opponents, 30-for-142 (21.1%)
Houston currently ranks ninth in 3-point defense. But more importantly, I'm going to fade the Beavers until they lose ... or right into an unexpected national championship victory.
Houston vs. Oregon State under 130.5 points
Cuff: Houston could move on to the Final Four without playing one single-seeded team, which would be unprecedented. I think the Cougars will win, but I don't know if they will cover because both these teams are bottom 50 in the nation in tempo. Possessions will be at a premium, and Houston is top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars will make it difficult for Ethan Thompson and Jarod Lucas to score. That said, Houston hasn't been very efficient scoring in this tournament, and I think Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle will mix man and zone to keep the Cougars out of rhythm. If the Beavers can limit second-chance points, I think this game will be played in the high 50s/low 60s.
1. Baylor Bears vs. 3. Arkansas Razorbacks over 148.5 points
Fortenbaugh: One of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation (40.8%, second in the NCAA), Baylor should find plenty of success from long range against an Arkansas squad that ranks 138th in 3-point defense. Pay particular attention to the fact that the Bears are scoring a healthy 72.3 points per game so far during the NCAA tournament despite having faced a Villanova squad that ranks 336th in tempo, a Wisconsin team that ranks 329th in tempo and a Hartford program that ranks 243rd in tempo. Arkansas? Well, Eric Musselman's crew loves to get out and run, ranking 17th in tempo. We'll hopefully enjoy a handful of fast-paced runs in this showdown.
Baylor vs. Arkansas first half over 70 points
Kezirian: Scoring has been difficult, and games have trended under, particularly this weekend. However, I expect both offenses to perform better in this matchup. Arkansas only made one 3-pointer in its comeback win over Oral Roberts. After a sluggish start, the Bears managed to find their groove in the second half against Villanova. There's no travel between games, and the players will have a familiar routine for a night game. I respect each defense, as both rank top 30 in KenPom.com, but I am optimistic for positive regression and some made shots.
Sweet 16
Sunday's results
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. 5. Creighton Bluejays over 158 points
Cuff: This game will have the largest collection of talented offensive players on the floor we have seen in this tournament. The Zags are first in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Creighton is 24th. Both have multiple players who can create for themselves, their teammates and make shots. Gonzaga loves to play up-tempo; Creighton doesn't play with its hair on fire, but the Jays aren't scared to get up and down. I don't think Greg McDermott is going to try to just grind this into a half-court game. You have to still play to your guys' strengths, and flowing into the offense from their secondary break is where the Bluejays can really excel. The Zags win, and maybe they cover, but I definitely think this game finds its way to a total of 160+ points.
Kezirian: I am with Dalen. Gonzaga might be one of the most talented teams in college basketball history, but every team has a weakness. The Zags allow points at the rim and sometimes concede points just to start their fast break. They're just fine in an up-and-down game and often prefer allowing a bucket to avoid foul trouble. After all, the nation's top-ranked offense can get buckets at any time. Oklahoma led by eight points early in the round of 32 and the Zags ultimately led by double digits at halftime. They force teams to play their game. Creighton will be comfortable in a fast-paced game, so I expect this to surpass the total.
4. Florida State Seminoles (+2.5) vs. 1. Michigan Wolverines
Fortenbaugh: Florida State is one of the most well-balanced teams in the country, ranking 14th in offense and 31st in defense entering Sunday's showdown with Michigan. But the Seminoles do bring one glaring weakness to the table: turnovers. The good news? Shockingly, Michigan is one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing opponents into turnovers (337th out of 357 teams). The Wolverines restored some of their recently lost hype following the program's impressive 86-78 win over LSU in the round of 32, but keep in mind that Michigan shot 54% from the field and 40% from deep in that contest. That's not going to happen against a Seminoles squad that ranks in the top 10 in 2-point defense.
11. UCLA Bruins vs. 2. Alabama Crimson Tide under 145.5 points
Kezirian: At first glance, this feels like a ton of points, and I become even firmer on the under the more I dive into the matchup. The Crimson Tide own the third-most efficient defense, based on KenPom.com rankings. UCLA brings the 63rd-ranked unit, but Mick Cronin is not about to allow his Bruins to get exploited. He has nearly a full week to scout Bama and will do everything he can to prepare his squad. He knows he has two weapons in Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Johnny Juzang and will lean on both for his offense, avoiding a track meet at all costs. I do not see how this is a fast-paced game, even though Alabama will try to push the pace.
7. Oregon Ducks vs. 6. USC Trojans under 139 points
Fortenbaugh: Two quality defenses led by offenses that play at a pace well below the national average. This one has all the makings of an under, if you ask me. Additionally, USC is a shaky free throw shooting team (328th out of 357 teams) that generates 55.8% of its offense via 2-point shots (40th in the NCAA). Not that it matters much at this point in the season, but when these two programs got together back on Feb. 22, they combined to score just 130 total points.
6. USC (-2) vs. 7. Oregon
Fallica: One could argue that the Trojans have been the most impressive team in the tourney so far, and now they face an Oregon team they blew out in the one meeting this year. Good shots are so hard to come by against USC, and while Oregon will play with no fear -- like it did against an Iowa team it ran off the court -- it's hard to see the Ducks getting good looks here in what will likely be more of a half-court game. I like the Trojans to advance to the Elite 8.
Money line parlay
Gonzaga -950/Alabama -270 ($100 returns $51)
Fallica: I'm going to take "Point spread Plinko" out of play here with the two favorites I think are least likely to lose on the money line and take roughly 50 cents on the dollar. I'd still consider laying the 6.5 with the Crimson Tide, as defensively they are fantastic, and I worry that UCLA's run has been aided by a Michigan State collapse in the play-in game, facing the most overseeded team in the tournament in the first round (BYU) and getting an offensively inept Abilene Christian team in the second round. You can only play and beat who you put in front of you, but this is a huge step up in opposition for the Bruins.
Saturday's results
8. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (-7) vs. 12. Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State 65, Loyola Chicago 58
Fortenbaugh: At some point Oregon State's incredible run of good fortune has to come to an end, doesn't it? In five games since the start of the Pac-12 tournament, the Beavers have shot an out-of-this-world 42% from deep. To put that into perspective, Baylor led the country in 3-point shooting this season at 41%. Throw in Oregon State's incredible 32-for-35 performance from the free throw line against Oklahoma State in the round of 32 and you can't help but think regression is right around the corner. Loyola Chicago brings the country's best defense to the Sweet 16 and has an offensive mindset of pounding the ball inside. That's an approach that should work well against a Beavers defense that ranked 238th in 2-point defense this season.
1. Baylor Bears (-7 and -3.5 first half) vs. 5. Villanova Wildcats
Kezirian: Jay Wright is as good as they come and will have his undermanned team ready. However, without point guard Collin Gillespie, Nova can do only so much against this high-powered Baylor attack. The Bears seem to have rediscovered their groove that a COVID-19 hiatus disrupted. Remember, this team was once considered in the same class as Gonzaga, which is why Caesars William Hill posted a yes/no prop on whether either of those two schools will win the national championship. I think the Bears have too much firepower and will push the pace. Villanova prefers a slower tempo and thus will be taken out of its comfort zone. I know Wright has several days to prepare, but I still think Baylor is just too much.
11. Syracuse Orange (+6.5) vs. 2. Houston Cougars
Cuff: I have faded the Orange most of the season, to my benefit the first few months and to my peril in the past month. Well, now I'm on the bandwagon, but for good reason. Defensively, they have been much more engaged, connected and effective in their zone. That has been evident in the tournament, especially as unfamiliar opponents have struggled. I think Houston will take some time to adjust and not excel against the zone. Offensively, Buddy Boeheim has been out of his mind. Over his past four games, he is averaging 28 points per game while shooting 60% from the field and 55% from 3-point range. Houston is a very good defensive team, and how the Cougars guard Boeheim will be critical. However, the key will be if Cuse can clean up its defensive glass. Houston is second in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. If the Orange can manage well in that area, I think they will cover and potentially can win this game.
Futures bets
Loyola +170, Syracuse +550 to win Midwest Region (heading into Sweet 16)
Fallica: I was surprised to see Houston as the favorite to win this region. I know the Cougars have a two next to their name, but one could make a case they have been the least impressive team in the region among the four remaining teams, and they have injury concerns. I'll take potentially two shots at beating them at plus money with the Ramblers and Orange.
Texas Longhorns +850 to win East Region
Fortenbaugh: Red-hot Texas lands in the region with the most vulnerable No. 1 seed due to the late-season foot injury sustained by Michigan wing Isaiah Livers. People went to sleep on this Longhorns team after it dropped three straight games following a January COVID-19 pause, which has created a favorable buy-low opportunity for us believers entering the Madness. This is a well-coached squad under Shaka Smart that can shoot from deep and play quality defense. Just ask Oklahoma State, which was the darling of the Big 12 until the Longhorns upended the Cowboys in the Big 12 title game.
LSU Tigers 20-1 to win East Region
Kezirian: Maybe I am a sucker of recency bias, but I am bullish on the Tigers. At 20-1, they are a legitimate threat to win the region. First of all, their offense is outstanding -- the fifth-most efficient offense in the entire country, according to KenPom.com. Defense has been their kryptonite, where they rank 125th. However, they have athleticism and speed but just did not commit the proper amount of effort. That changed in the SEC tournament, and they fell just short of winning it, falling to Alabama in the closing seconds. On top of these reasons, they could face a short-handed Michigan squad in the second round. The top-seeded Wolverines will miss Isaiah Livers at some point in this tournament.
Purdue Boilermakers +850 to win South Region
Fortenbaugh: The Boilermakers rank in the top 25 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense and emerge from a battle-tested Big Ten Conference with victories over Ohio State (twice), Wisconsin and Michigan State (twice). Had the Boilermakers landed in the Gonzaga or Illinois region, I would have passed on this wager, but Baylor has shown itself to be mortal since coming off its COVID-19 pause.
Ohio State Buckeyes +400, Purdue Boilermakers +1150 to win South Region
Fallica: I'm going to take a two-pronged approach against the 1-seed Baylor here. The Bears have not been the same team we saw prior to their COVID shutdown. Maybe they can turn the switch on here, but I'll potentially have two swings at them -- in the Sweet 16 with Purdue and the Elite Eight with Ohio State.
Oregon Ducks +350 to reach Sweet 16
Fallica: The Ducks got their bad game out in the Pac-12 tourney against Oregon State and typically outperform their seed in the tournament. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Dana Altman's team do it again.
Oregon 40-1 to win West Region
Kezirian: The implied odds of 40-1 is 2.4%, which sure feels like an auto-play. The Ducks are favored by 5.5 points over VCU in their opener. 2-seed Iowa likely awaits in the next round. The Hawkeyes have a potent offense and a squad that is battle-tested in the mighty Big Ten. However, many of their players, including stud Luka Garza, have limited athleticism. Oregon is more than capable of pulling off the upset. A short-handed Kansas or USC likely awaits in the Sweet 16. I trust Dana Altman this time of year, as he demonstrated in 2017 when the Ducks defeated 1-seed Kansas to reach the Final Four. Obviously Gonzaga is the top-ranked school and will likely emerge from the region but this is March Madness. I have to grab Oregon at 40-1.
Florida State Seminoles +900, UConn Huskies +1150, Maryland Terrapins +2500 to win East Region
Fallica: This is a play against Michigan. I think the UConn-Maryland winner has a great shot of knocking off Alabama in the second round, so I have to include both the Huskies and Terps. Florida State is a matchup problem for so many teams at this point in the season, and if Michigan is short-handed, that could be a big problem when/if they face the Noles. FSU can also be had at -118 to reach the Sweet 16, which would mean beating UNC Greensboro and either Colorado or Georgetown.
Second-round picks
2. Iowa Hawkeyes (-4) vs. 7. Oregon Ducks
Cuff: I really like Oregon's team and their offensive versatility, but I don't like the Ducks in this situation. The Ducks moved on to the round of 32 after VCU had a COVID-19 outbreak and could not play the opening-round game. The Ducks last played on March 12th in the Pac-12 semifinal, and they played poorly on both ends of the floor and fell to rival Oregon State. I don't like the long layoff, and their opponent is second in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Hawkeyes are anchored by soon to be national player of the year Luka Garza, whom the Ducks really don't have an answer for on the interior. Also, the Hawkeyes' defense has improved; through their last 10 games before the NCAA tournament, they held teams to 66 points per game. That's down from 76 PPG in the previous 19 games. It's a bad spot for the Ducks, a good matchup for Iowa. I'll lay the points.
Iowa -3 first half
Kezirian: One thing we have witnessed so far in this tournament is that a team with one game under its belt looks sharper than its opponent. I will lay the short number with Iowa in the first half (-3). I think Oregon is solid and has the capability to pull off an upset, but I think the Hawkeyes have an edge in the first half. Plus, Iowa's offense features some movement and misdirection. While the Ducks will prepare properly, it is still tough to simulate. I think Oregon will take some time to adjust.
8. Oklahoma Sooners (+14.5) vs. 1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Cuff: I have Gonzaga winning the national title. The Bulldogs' offense is historically good. Watching them is balletic in how they make the incredibly complex and difficult look so simple and aesthetically pleasing. That said, laying 14.5 points to a quality, high major opponent that has beaten teams like Alabama, Kansas, Texas, West Virginia and Missouri is a lot. Even without De'Vion Harmon, this Sooners team is still formidable. They've won big games this year, and some of the aforementioned wins came when they were missing key players. As always, Austin Reaves will be critical in creating for himself and his teammates but most importantly helping the Sooners control pace. They are most comfortable in a half-court game and have to make shots to keep it within the number. I think they lose, but by around 10, not 15. Give me the points.
11. UCLA Bruins vs. 14. Abilene Christian Wildcats under 133.5 points
Kezirian: As we witnessed on Saturday night, the Wildcats' defense is legit. They make you earn every point and will also force you into uncomfortable situations that lead to turnovers. UCLA has guys who can get buckets in Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Johnny Juzang. However, I still trust this Abilene Christian squad that KenPom ranks 20th in defensive efficiency. And I am not convinced the Wildcats will be able to generate many points.
13. Ohio Bobcats (+6) vs. 5. Creighton Bluejays
Fortenbaugh: Creighton had no business beating UC Santa Barbara, which flushed a win in the opening round down the toilet in the final minute of Saturday's showdown. But let's look at this from a positive perspective -- it gives us another opportunity to fade the Bluejays. Ohio is legit. The Bobcats upset 4-seed Virginia despite shooting only 7-for-23 from deep and enter this matchup with a decisive edge when it comes to both free throws and rebounding. I'm taking the points and playing the Bobcats on the money line as well.
5. Colorado Buffaloes (+1) vs. 4. Florida State Seminoles
Fortenbaugh: The first round of the tournament did wonders in both exposing the mediocrity of the ACC while highlighting the surprising strength of America's favorite punching bag, the Pac-12. And what do you know, here's a second-round showdown between the ACC and Pac-12. It's always dangerous to say this, but I think the wrong team is favored in this game. Florida State, for all the hype, has been inconsistent down the stretch, losing to North Carolina, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech in their final five games before the tournament. Meanwhile, Colorado can shoot the lights out from deep and is the second-best free throw shooting team in the nation. My money is on the boys from Boulder.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide vs. 10. Maryland Terrapins under 137 points
Kezirian: Alabama owns the nation's top defensive ranking, according to KenPom.com, and Rutgers sits 16th. Both schools possess respectable offenses, and Bama will look to push the pace a bit. But ultimately, given the tournament stage, I anticipate measured possessions in the second half. I do not think both teams will reach 70 points, so I think we sneak under the total.
6. USC Trojans (-1) vs. 3. Kansas Jayhawks
Cuff: Both teams are top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency, are average shooting the ball, and neither plays at a particularly quick pace. The Jayhawks are still working back to full strength from their COVID-19 issues, but Jalen Wilson, their best rebounder and one of their better players overall, reportedly will be available for this game. But they didn't look great in their 93-84 win against Eastern Washington, especially on the defensive end. over the last six weeks of the season, playing through David McCormack on the block has been the key to their offense. However, he just got back from COVID-19 himself and came of the bench against EWU to limit his minutes. He ended up dominating in a game that featured little defense. USC is a completely different animal with tremendous length across their team and a top-three pick in June's NBA draft on the interior in Evan Mobley. The Trojans' defense will make everything difficult for an already limited Kansas offense. I think the under is in play for sure in this game, but I like the Trojans to win by more than two.
Fallica: The SC defense stifled Drake in the first round and while it will have a tougher test here, the size and athleticism of the Trojans will likely give KU fits. Eastern Washington shot 50% from the field against KU - and 19-32 from 2-point range. If SC can get the same good looks as the Eagles, it should be enough to send the Jayhawks home and advance to the Sweet 16.
Bonus pick for Women's NCAA Tournament
4. Arkansas Razorbacks (-11.5) vs. 13. Wright State Raiders
Kezirian: This should be a lopsided game and the line movement certainly indicates such. It opened Arkansas -8.5 and I agree with the line move. The Razorbacks have a high ceiling and demonstrated that earlier this season by defeating UConn. They can be inconsistent at times and tend to lack focus a bit too much for my liking but this is a special circumstance. The NCAA Tournament brings out the focus and the Razorbacks are led by senior Chelsea Dungee, who I expect to get this team ready to make a legitimate run.
As for this particular matchup, Wright State is a mediocre Horizon League team that will not be able to compete with the Hogs' explosive offense. Arkansas ranks top 10 in three-point attempts and three-point shooting percentage, while the Raiders rank 319th with four made threes per game. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Raiders rank 116th and Arkansas ranks 11th.
8. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (+9, 133.5) vs. 1. Illinois Fighting Illini
Kezirian: Loyola has been a great story recently as a mid-major and with 101-year-old Sister Jean. Somewhat lost in that hoopla is the fact that the Ramblers are a quality basketball team. KenPom.com ranks them as a third-best defense, which adjusts for the quality of opponents. Illinois may be the nation's best team but Loyola is no pushover. I expect the Ramblers to enter this matchup genuinely believing they can win. That's a big part of trying to take down Goliath. I expect Loyola to hang around and will grab the points.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (+6.5) vs. 1. Baylor Bears
Kezirian: Wisconsin played as well as it possible could have in its beatdown of North Carolina. With that being said, I do expect the Badgers to give Baylor a good run. They are not a fun offense but they still rank 27th in efficiency at KenPom.com. The best version of Baylor will cover this number but how likely are we to get that from the Bears? They have been so shaky since returning from the COVID-19 layoff. I'll ride with the 'dog.
Fallica: The Bears were able to overcome a slow start Friday and beat outmanned Hartford, but this will be a much tougher task. Baylor shot just 11-33 from 3-point range and now face a team that may be able to control tempo. The Badgers were clinical vs a UNC team that doesn't like to play defense (51% FG, 48% 3-pt FG, 83% FT). It's unlikely they will reach those thresholds here, but these guards can hold their own and I expect Wisconsin to have a great chance to pull the outright upset.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks (+1) vs. 6. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Cuff: Both these teams are top 20 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but go about their offense in very different manners. Texas Tech, one of the slowest tempos in the nation, run true motion offense but can struggle to score at times. Outside of Mac McClung, not many Red Raiders can go get you a bucket. Conversely, Arkansas plays a pace and space offense at a top 15 tempo in the nation, have a future lottery pick in Moses Moody, a versatile big in Justin Smith and a number of guys that can make shots. I think Arkansas is the better, more complete team and will be able to grind out a win in what Tech will most likely make a half court game.
Kezirian: I am with Dalen on this. The Red Raiders looked strong in their opener against Utah State, but Mountain West teams have routinely flamed out in the big dance. This is a major step up in class. Additionally, since seeding began, there have been seven previous instances of a 6-seed favored over a 3-seed in the second round. The 3-seed has won five times outright in that underdog role. Let's not overreact to one game. The Razorbacks are the better team and have an excellent coach in Eric Musselman, although Chris Beard is great too. It's just way too hard to trust this Red Raiders offense against an Arkansas defense that ranks 10th in efficiency on KenPom.com.
7. Florida Gators (-8) vs. 15. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Fortenbaugh: All praise to 15-seed Oral Roberts for giving the boot to Ohio State on Friday, but be sure to note that the Buckeyes shot 15 percent below their season average from deep and 25 percent below their season average from the free throw line in that game. Do we really expect Oral Roberts to experience that type of good fortune for a second time this weekend? Remember, Ohio State entered the tournament ranking 181st in 3-point defense. Florida, meanwhile, is outstanding when it comes to guarding the perimeter, as the Gators rank 29th in 3-point defense. Throw in Florida's edge on the glass and I see the Gators bringing down the curtain on the Golden Eagles Sunday.
13. North Texas Mean Green (+6.5) vs. 5. Villanova Wildcats
Cuff: I stuck with Villanova to beat Winthrop in the first round as they are figuring out how to play without Colin Gillespie. I think they can still win vs. the Mean Green but I'm not sure and I love getting 6.5 points here. Both teams are bottom 20 in the nation in pace. This will be a slow, slog of game with minimal possessions. North Texas is a top 40 team in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and put that on display as they took Trevion Williams out of the opener vs. Purdue. Javion Hamlet is a clutch guard that can get himself or a teammate a bucket in big moments. Nova may win but I don't think they cover in this rock fight.
5. Villanova Wildcats (-6.5) vs. 13. North Texas Mean Green
Fallica: Historically, betting against 13-seeds and lower that pull upsets in the first round is a winning proposition. Over the last 4 tournaments, 13 seeds have failed to cover any of their round of 32 games and lost by an average of 18.8 PPG and were on average a 7.5 dog. Villanova overcame a lengthy scoring drought in the first half and making just 32% of its threes to pull away in the 2nd half. I suspect the Cats will be a bit crisper all around in the 2nd round against a North Texas team that can go into scoring droughts of its own and got a lot of help from Purdue in its upset win over the Boilermakers.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6) vs. 12. Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State 80, Oklahoma State 70
Fallica: The Beavers have been good to me in the last couple of weeks, but Oklahoma State got past Liberty despite a 3-14 game from Cade Cunningham and making only 3 of 15 3's. One would have to expect the Cowboys to get a better performance from their star and a better performance from three. Tennessee shot itself out of the game early vs Oregon State and if Oklahoma State doesn't help Oregon State here, it will likely be tough for the Beavers to stick around here.
First-round picks
8. LSU Tigers (-1.5) vs. 9. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Cuff: The Tigers almost pulled off the SEC title at +450, losing by a point to Alabama. This team is arguably the most gifted offensive team in the nation. It boasts the nation's leading scoring trio in Cameron Thomas, Javonte Smart and Trendon Watford. These guys can score in a multitude of ways, and Thomas and Smart in particular are tough shot-takers and makers. The Bonnies are top 20 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they've played zero teams from the big six conferences. The Atlantic 10 was not what we thought it would be this year, and the Bonnies haven't seen scorers like this. LSU's transition defense can be abysmal at times, but the Bonnies are bottom 30 in the nation in pace and have their own issues scoring. The Tigers cover the small number.
12. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (+7.5) vs. 5. Creighton Bluejays
Creighton 63, UC Santa Barbara 62
Fortenbaugh: This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, as UCSB enters the tournament having won 18 of its last 19 games, while Creighton has dropped three of its past six outings, with two of those wins coming against a below-average Butler team. Santa Barbara plays at a glacial pace -- something that has given Creighton trouble at times this season -- and can knock down its free throws and 3-pointers. Covering 7.5 points won't be easy for a Bluejays team that shot just 64.2% from the charity stripe this season (329th in NCAA).
Kezirian: UCSB will likely be a popular pick, given the tournament's history of 12-seed upsets. There's a lot to like with the Gauchos. They have a stingy defense that has helped them win 18 of their last 19 games, including the Big West regular-season and tournament championships. Creighton can easily cover this if it plays one of its better games, given that all five starters average double digits in scoring. But it's an unreliable squad, so I will grab the points with the underdog.
12. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (+7.5, +245 ML) vs 5. Creighton Bluejays
Fallica: I don't want to fall too much into looking at recency bias, but one can really not like what they saw from the Jays in the Big East tourney. Now they are laying a healthy number vs. an experienced, big team that might cause some matchup problems? I'll be on the Gauchos here.
15. Iona Gaels (+17) vs. 2. Alabama Crimson Tide
Kezirian: The discussion starts with Rick Pitino, and for good reason. Overshadowed by all the hoopla surrounding his career is the fact that he is an excellent basketball coach. He will push all the right buttons to get this game inside the number. Alabama is a solid team, but the Tide have had some difficulty against teams that play harder.
13. Ohio Bobcats (+7.5) vs. 4. Virginia Cavaliers
Cuff: When I played in college, if I went more than a day without touching a ball it just felt odd, and I was little off when I got the ball back in my hands. The Cavaliers are currently in quarantine in Charlottesville, Virginia and will not arrive in Indianapolis until Friday. Saturday at 7:15 a.m. will be the first chance they have to practice on a court since they beat Syracuse at the buzzer last Thursday. That layoff is brutal from a conditioning, chemistry and feel standpoint for a team that this season was primarily an offensively geared team. The Cavaliers generate 37.2% of their offense from 3-point range, which is 38th in the nation. They are 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, the lowest they've been under Tony Bennett since 2011. Couple the COVID-19 issues and how this team is constructed with the fact that Ohio has a future NBA point guard in Jason Preston and that could be a huge problem. I think the Bobcats, who lost by two to Illinois early in the year, win outright, but I'll take the points.
Kezirian: Do I love that 97% of the handle at Caesars William Hill is on the underdog? Absolutely not. However, the line has at least moved with the action, so I am not as concerned. This situation is just really tough for Virginia. The players have been isolated in their rooms and not practicing. They could not even travel to Indiana until Friday and won't get reps in the gym until Saturday. Ohio, led by stud guard Preston, is a trendy underdog pick, but I am still riding with the Bobcats.
14. Abilene Christian Wildcats (+9) vs 3. Texas Longhorns
Abilene Christian 53, Texas 52
Fallica: Texas is on my "Do Not Trust" list. And while I don't think the Longhorns will lose here, I don't think this will be a complete blowout, Abilene Christian fared OK vs. Arkansas, and Texas Tech's Kolton Kohl has the size to handle himself on the interior vs Jericho Sims.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. 11. Utah State Aggies under 132 points
Cuff: Occasionally I'll look at a matchup and immediately, without knowing the number, just say take the over or take the under. Well this is a take the under situation -- and when I saw the number, I thought it would have been lower. Both teams are in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Tech plays at a bottom-30 pace, while Utah State doesn't try to push it much. This will be a physical, defensive game, and it lacks a lot of players who can take and make contested shots. If you love points, avert your eyes. But if you like money, play the under.
Kezirian: This has all the makings of a rock fight with at least one team unable to reach 60 points. We are certainly familiar with Chris Beard and the Tech defense. The Red Raiders are rocking the nation's 25th most efficient defense, according to KenPom.com. Utah State is actually eighth, anchored by seven-footer Neemias Queta. I also think the Aggies will struggle scoring, now that they're facing better athletes than they usually see in Mountain West play.
Utah State +5, +175 ML vs Texas Tech
Fallica: I think this Texas Tech team is living a little off the reputation of Chris Beard and the 2019 team that lost to Virginia in the championship game. This Tech team is just 5-10 vs. top-50 teams and 2-12 ATS in those games. Tech has the second-worst ATS record in the tournament, which tells me they have been overvalued all season. Queta will be a matchup problem, and I like the Aggies to win the game on the court. I also look at a small flier on Utah State to reach the Sweet 16 at +600 (at DraftKings)
2. Ohio State Buckeyes vs. 15. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles over 156 points
Oral Roberts 75, Ohio State 72 (OT)
Fortenbaugh: As fantastic as Ohio State has been as of late, the Buckeyes still struggle to defend the perimeter, where opponents are shooting 34.1% from deep on the season (191st in NCAA). That could spell trouble against an up-tempo Golden Eagles club that generates 41.1% of its offense from long range (ninth in NCAA) while shooting an astounding 38.8% from deep (11th in NCAA). One of the top offenses in the country, Ohio State should have no trouble whatsoever scoring with consistency against this Oral Roberts club that ranks 285th in adjusted defense.
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +5.5, +200 ML vs 8. Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Loyola Chicago 71, Georgia Tech 60
Fallica: Many people are wondering why Loyola isn't a higher seed, but I think it is seeded appropriately given that the Valley was a bad league this year and the Ramblers just don't have any notable wins. I like Tech here -- while I'm not sure where Loyola is going to get points outside of Krutwig, Tech has options even without Wright in Alvarado, Devoe and Usher. The ACC champs are peaking and being overlooked here, as quite often teams can overperform for a game, even without a star player.
5. Tennessee Volunteers vs. 12. Oregon State Beavers under 132 points
Fortenbaugh: Regression is coming for the Beavers, who shot a ridiculous 43.9% from deep during their improbable three-game championship run through the Pac-12 tournament. That regression commences in the opening round of March Madness, where a Tennessee squad that ranks 233rd in tempo and an ultra-impressive fourth in adjusted defense is waiting. For those who thought the Volunteers played slow, allow me to introduce you to a Beavers team that currently ranks 315th in adjusted tempo out of 357 total schools.
12. Oregon State +8, +300 ML vs 5. Tennessee
Fallica: The young Vols have a tendency to go into scoring slumps at times, and we still don't know the status of John Fulkerson. Oregon State can shoot the 3 and hang around here, if not pull the outright upset.
13. Liberty Flames (+7.5) vs. 4. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Cuff: Oklahoma State is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Cowboys have won eight of 10 in the brutal Big 12 and fell just short to Texas in the Big 12 tournament title game. Cade Cunningham and Isaac Likekele have led this team, and players such as Avery Anderson have emerged. But despite their form, this is a very young team that is bottom 30 in the nation in experience. It's the first tournament for the vast majority of this team and its coach. Meanwhile, the Flames are more experienced, have an effective field goal percentage of 54.7% (seventh in the nation) and play at a pace that is among the 10 slowest in the nation. Coach Ritchie McKay used to be at UVa with Tony Bennett. The Flames employ a pack line defense that will make you work for opportunities in the half court. Lastly, the Flames were able to test themselves this year against major competition, defeating South Carolina and Mississippi State and falling to Purdue, Missouri and TCU. That experience will be invaluable here. To paraphrase a historic and inspirational Virginian ... Give me Liberty, and give me the points.
9. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5) vs 8. North Carolina Tar Heels
Wisconsin 85, North Carolina 62
Fallica: This bucks the trend of Roy Williams never losing a first-round game and UNC's run of 17 straight first-round wins. But I worry about UNC's guard play and ability to deal with defense and tempo here. I also think Wisconsin will be well served getting out of Big Ten play, where the Badgers lost a bunch of close games against teams that are 1- and 2-seeds.
2. Houston Cougars (-20.5) vs. 15. Cleveland State Vikings
Houston 87, Cleveland State 56
Kezirian: I understand the American was not as strong as in recent years, but Houston is a legitimate threat to make a run. Don't dismiss a school just because it is not a traditional power. Plus, the Cougars have the firepower to truck an inferior team like Cleveland State. The offense ranks eighth in adjusted efficiency, which accounts for the quality of an opponent. That's ahead of schools like Villanova, Florida State and West Virginia. Cleveland State ranks 199th. The Cougars will be out for blood, and I expect a beatdown.
3. West Virginia Mountaineers (-12.5) vs 14. Morehead State Eagles
West Virginia 84, Morehead State 67
Fallica: While this isn't a typical "Press Virginia" defensive team, I still wonder where points are coming from for Morehead State. The Eagles scored 45 vs. Kentucky, 44 vs. Ohio State and 51 vs. Clemson. One would also have to think the Mountaineers will enjoy not playing Oklahoma State and Baylor, as it seems they have for the last couple of weeks. At DK, WVU is -118 to reach the Sweet 16, which is a bet I would make.
12. Winthrop Eagles (+6.5) vs. 5. Villanova Wildcats
Fortenbaugh: Villanova's 12-point redemption win over Creighton on March 3 came with a heavy cost, as senior guard Collin Gillespie (14.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.6 APG) was lost for the season with a torn MCL. Since then, the Wildcats suffered a two-point loss to Providence despite closing as a 4.5-point favorite and a one-point loss to Georgetown despite closing as a six-point favorite. It's possible that the Gillespie injury hasn't completely sucked the life out of this Nova team, but I'll gladly grab the 6.5 points with a rocket-fast Winthrop squad that is one of the best rebounding teams in the country.
First Four
11. Michigan State Spartans (-2) vs. 11. UCLA Bruins
UCLA 86, Michigan State 80 (OT)
Cuff: I can't believe the Spartans, with five Quadrant 1 wins, are in the First Four, just like I can't believe they are favored by only two points against UCLA. In the last month, Sparty has defeated Illinois, Michigan and Ohio State -- three of the eight best teams in the country. They are a different team today than they were six weeks ago. Aaron Henry has emerged as a dominant force on both ends, Rocket Watts has been much better with the ball in his hands and other players have continued to improve. The Bruins are a good offensive team but don't have a lot of individual talent to manufacture points. They are a bad defensive team (86th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and have rarely shown the toughness and fight that is synonymous with second-year coach Mick Cronin. Additionally, the Bruins have lost four straight coming into the tournament, and some of those were not competitive. I think this line holding all week at -2 is almost shocking, and I'm jumping all over it.