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Mike Clay's favorite prop bets for NFL wild-card weekend

The regular season is over, but there is still plenty of action to be had during the expanded NFL playoffs. That's especially the case this super wild-card weekend with six teams set to battle it out for a spot in the final eight.

With a smaller field comes a larger assortment of player props for each game, so included here is a full box score projection for all 12 teams in action during wild-card weekend. Click here to access the PDF, which includes the offense, defense, special teams and point total projections you'd normally see in our fantasy game.

Speaking of fantasy, if you enjoy the WR vs. CB matchup sheet we deliver each week of the regular season, you can access that PDF for the six Wild Card games here.

Finally, below are a few intriguing player props (all via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill) that looked attractive to me this weekend. Of course, you're certainly welcome to ignore those and pick your own poison by comparing the projections in the PDF to the props you come across.


Josh Allen over 2.5 pass TDs (+140)

Allen has thrown three or more touchdown passes in six games this season, including three of his past four. His 37 passing touchdowns during the regular season were fifth-most in the NFL. The Bills operated the game-script-adjusted No. 2 pass-heaviest offense during the regular season, and their 46 throws into the end zone ranked fifth in the league. Buffalo is averaging 3.5 offensive touchdowns per game this season (fifth-highest), and 71% of them have been passes (eighth-highest). The Colts, meanwhile, have allowed at least two passing scores in four consecutive games and have allowed three or more in four games this season. Allen's projection checks in at 2.5 passing touchdowns on 40 attempts, so at +140 this one is well worth a shot.

Logan Thomas over 39.5 receiving yards (-115), over 3.5 receptions (-155)

Thomas' props are egregiously low for a player who has cleared these marks in four of his past five games, averaging 9.8 targets, 7.6 receptions and 68.4 receiving yards per game during the span. Thomas exited the regular season ranked No. 1 in pass routes among tight ends. He ranked fourth in targets, third in receptions and seventh in yardage. He has peaked in recent weeks, with 15 targets in Week 15 and 12 targets in Week 16. The Tampa Bay defense, meanwhile, has allowed 86 receptions (seventh-most), 832 yards (17th-most) and a 72% catch rate (seventh-highest) to tight ends this season. The Buccaneers allowed at least 40 yards to the position in 12 of their 16 regular-season games. Thomas shows a projection of 5.9 receptions for 57 yards on 8.8 targets, so he's worth a look even with the ugly juice.

Lamar Jackson over 1.5 pass TDs (+130)

Tennessee has been atrocious against the pass this season, allowing the fourth-most yards and second-most touchdowns (36) through the air. The Titans have allowed at least two passing TDs in 11 of 16 games this season, though Jackson only managed one against them in the divisional round last season and in Week 11 earlier this season. Of course, Jackson reached two passing scores in nine of 15 regular-season games after hitting the mark in nine of 16 total games in 2019. Jackson's projection checks in at a nice round 2.0 on 26 pass attempts, so the over at +130 is crazy attractive.

Ryan Tannehill over 1.5 pass TDs (-105)

Tannehill tossed 33 touchdown passes during the regular season, which included at least two in 11 of 16 games. In fact, tracing back to when Tannehill took over as the Titans' starter in Week 7 last season, he has thrown two-plus touchdowns in 22 of 29 games, including the playoffs. He threw two against Baltimore in Week 11 and two against them in the playoffs last season. Speaking of the Ravens, their defense has allowed at least two passing scores in seven games this season. The Titans operate a run-heavy offense, but their status as a home underdog suggests game script will dictate more passing than usual. At near even money, the over is attractive.

Others to consider

J.D. McKissic over 30.5 receiving yards (-120); Projection: 45

Lamar Jackson over 0.5 INTs (+115); Projection: 0.6

Marquise Brown over 47.5 receiving yards (-115); Projection: 59

David Montgomery under 3.5 receptions (+120); Projection: 3.4

Cairo Santos over 1.5 field goals made (+120); Projection: 1.7

Drew Brees over 0.5 interceptions (+185) ; Projection: 0.6