The 11-2 Pittsburgh Steelers will host the 2-10-1 Cincinnati Bengals to wrap up Week 15 on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
ESPN betting expert Doug Kezirian and ESPN Analytics' Seth Walder have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 40) at Cincinnati Bengals
Steelers -14
Kezirian: Did the Steelers peak too early, or is it just that they had to play three games in 12 days? I think it's the latter and expect a recharged Pittsburgh team to blow out Cincinnati. The Bengals began the season with promise, but that vanished with Joe Burrow's injury. Backup quarterback Brandon Allen is out, too, so second-year man Ryan Finley takes over, which is even worse. I think Mike Tomlin pushes all the right buttons and Big Ben picks apart a defense that just allowed Andy Dalton a passer rating of 122.6.
Tee Higgins over 40.5 receiving yards
Walder: Higgins would have covered this line in nine of 13 games so far this season, and three of the four in which he fell short were his first three games of the season. Excluding the first game, when he wasn't targeted, Higgins' expected completed air yards per game -- based on NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion percentage -- is 42.7, which is more than the prop line without including any YAC! And that includes other early-season games in which Higgins was on the field less than he has been recently.
Although Higgins has caught passes at a rate slightly above expectation thus far, it's reasonable to think that it will be lower than that with Finley starting at QB. But still, it's rare to find situations in which a player's air yard opportunity per game exceeds the prop line, and I think that justifies the over, even with Finley.