The Big 12 football championship game has rarely lived up to the conference's long-standing reputation as a points haven. From 2002 through 2010, before the title game went on hiatus for seven years, it topped 55 total points only twice; it featured only one truly prolific affair (Oklahoma's 62-21 victory over Missouri in 2008, the Sooners' sixth straight game scoring at least 58 points) and half of one in 2005 -- Texas scored 70, poor Colorado scored three.
Granted, missing out on a potential Baylor-TCU championship game in 2014 and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State games in 2015-16 certainly kept the scoring averages down. Still, this hasn't been nearly as high-scoring a game as you would probably imagine.
It would be a surprise if that changes on Saturday. The over/under for Iowa State-Oklahoma opened at 58 points, per Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill; that's the second-lowest point total among the five power-conference title games, dwarfed by that of the surprising new home of killer offenses, the SEC (74.5).
In this case, it's not the game's offenses, or its history, keeping the point total low -- it's the defenses. Iowa State is ranked 11th in defensive SP+ (the Cyclones have finished higher than that only once, in 1920), and after sinking as low as 50th early in the season, Oklahoma has jumped to 21st in recent weeks. The league actually has five defenses in the top 25, its most since 2013, and it's hard to make the case that any are hotter than these two.
Sure, the offenses are also good -- Oklahoma is fourth in offensive SP+, Iowa State 14th -- but that's to be expected. Let's take a closer look at the more surprising units.
Iowa State
After allowing 30-plus points in each of its first three games, Iowa State has allowed more than 24 points just once in its past seven. The Cyclones stop the run beautifully, generate pass pressure without blitzing, and defend very well in the red zone.
The key statistical strengths:
• 20th in rushing success rate allowed, 10th in rushing marginal explosiveness (a measure of the magnitude of an offense's successful plays, adjusted for field position)
• 17th in sack rate but 123rd in blitzes per dropback
• Ninth in defensive line havoc rate (tackles for loss, passes defensed and forced fumbles divided by total plays)
• Second in goal-to-go touchdown rate allowed, fifth in points allowed per scoring opportunity (first downs inside the 40)
Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock's scheme, combined with an exciting collection of players up front, has allowed the Cyclones to have the best of both worlds. They line up with no more than six defenders in the box 90% of the time, most in FBS, which just screams out "RUN THE FOOTBALL" to opposing offensive coordinators. But then they swarm to the ball and stop the run as well as just about anyone.
Meanwhile, if you pass, your quarterback will struggle to make the right read. Iowa State can drop at least five defensive backs into zone coverage (its man-to-zone ratio is only 15%, fourth lowest in FBS), and if the QB doesn't make a quick decision on where to go with the ball, either JaQuan Bailey, Will McDonald or both will soon be in his face. That duo has combined for 15.5 sacks, 42 pressures, three forced fumbles and 16 forced incompletions or interceptions. Tackle Latrell Bankston occasionally contributes to the pass rush, too (2.5 sacks, 12 pressures).
Heacock's defense makes offensive coordinators uneasy in their playcalls and quarterbacks uneasy in their reads. In Iowa State's 37-30 victory over Oklahoma in Norman on Oct. 3, the Cyclones confused Sooners quarterback Spencer Rattler enough to mostly take away Oklahoma's most dangerous weapon: the downfield passing game.
On passes thrown at least 10 yards downfield in 2020, Rattler has had as much success as we've come to expect from Oklahoma QBs. He's completed 58% of these passes and generated a raw QBR of 97.3, fifth among those with at least 100 such throws. (Those ahead of him: Alabama's Mac Jones, Ole Miss' Matt Corral, Florida's Kyle Trask and North Carolina's Sam Howell. Lofty company.)
Against Iowa State, though, Rattler completed just 44% of these passes (8-for-18) with a 54.5 QBR. The Cyclones forced Rattler to settle for shorter throws and to slowly work the ball down the field; once into scoring position, the Sooners stalled out, as most do against Iowa State. In eight trips inside the Cyclones' 40-yard line, Oklahoma scored three touchdowns but settled for four field goals (missing one) and, on its final possession, threw a pick.
You could argue that Oklahoma is better suited to do damage this time. Rattler now has experience against this defense, and more experience in general. Plus the reintroduction of running back Rhamondre Stevenson, suspended for the first five games of the season, has made a massive difference. In 82 intended touches (rushes and pass targets), Stevenson has gained 557 yards (6.8 per intended touch) and scored six times.
You could argue, however, that Iowa State's defense is also performing at a higher level than it was in early October. It's fair to assume that Heacock has a few more tricks in store for Rattler this time around.
Oklahoma
Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch makes his intentions pretty clear: He wants to attack, and attack, and attack. What's the opposite of a bend-don't-break defense? Break-don't-bend? That's the Sooners.
The key statistical strengths:
• Seventh in success rate allowed, second in passing-downs success rate allowed
• Seventh in overall havoc rate, third in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), third in blitz-down sack rate
• 14th in completion rate allowed
The Sooners are also 107th in marginal explosiveness, of course. If they don't burn you, you burn them.
Against Kansas State in September, Oklahoma allowed only 16 "successful" plays all game -- plays gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth -- and a 32% success rate, well below the national average. But among those 16 successes were gains of 17, 23, 35, 38, 39, 77 and 78 yards. Up 28-7 in the third quarter, Grinch and the Sooners kept attacking, and they started getting carved up. K-State scored on five consecutive drives to steal a 38-35 upset.
Like the offense, the defense found a key midseason reinforcement: defensive end Ronnie Perkins, who was, like Stevenson, suspended for the start of the season. Perkins is Grinch's philosophy personified -- in just four games, he has four sacks and has generated pressure on 16% of his pass-rush attempts. (For reference, Ohio State's Chase Young was at 18% last season.)
With Perkins, Oklahoma has achieved unblockability. Rush end Nik Bonitto and tackle Isaiah Thomas have combined for 14.5 sacks, 60 pressures, two forced fumbles and 29 forced incompletions and interceptions. After allowing 40 points per game in their first three conference games, the Sooners have allowed 15.6 per game since.
Thanks in part to star running back Breece Hall, Iowa State was far more efficient against Oklahoma than Kansas State was -- the Cyclones had a 47% success rate, and Hall rushed 28 times for 139 yards and two scores. In addition, they also found ways to open the big-play spigot: Brock Purdy went only 12-for-24, but six of those completions went for 20-plus yards, two for 40-plus. A 65-yarder to Xavier Hutchinson gave Iowa State the lead in the third quarter, and with the game tied late, a 36-yard run by Hall set up the winning points.
Because of the big plays, it was easy to paint the Iowa State and Kansas State losses as similar, but the Cyclones had far more consistent success. And this was only the start for Hutchinson, who began the season poorly as Purdy's new No. 1 target but picked up the pace -- he had a combined 14 catches for 200 yards in blowouts of K-State and West Virginia. Between Hutchinson and tight end Charlie Kolar, the Cyclones can create matchup problems.
This is a run-first team, however. Iowa State runs on run downs (37th in standard-downs run rate) and passes on passing downs (15th in passing-downs pass rate), and since Oklahoma's run defense has also improved since early October, it will be interesting to see how well the Sooners can corral Hall. If Hall is getting caught more behind the line, Purdy will be throwing a lot on third-and-long, and that's a very bad place to be against Perkins, Bonitto, Thomas and a dynamite pass defense.
The projections
SP+ projection: Oklahoma 32.2, Iowa State 28.1 (OU by 4.1)
Assumed Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill projection: Oklahoma 31.8, Iowa State 26.3 (OU -5.5, 58 total points)
I guess it says something about modern college football that a game projected at 32-26 or so is a pretty mediocre point total, but here we are. Both defenses are hot, and it wouldn't be surprising if both had more success than they did back in October. But there are playmakers on every single unit in this game, and that makes it one of the most interesting of the championship week slate.
If we had the eight-team playoff of my dreams, whoever won this game would be more than hot enough to throw a serious scare into a top-four seed. As it stands, this probably doesn't have College Football Playoff implications, but oh well. We'll have to settle for watching two really good teams playing for stakes that are still awfully high.