For our market watch this week, we are going to take a look at the NFL's playoff yes-no futures market. There is still a handful of teams in each conference vying for playoff spots. I spotted three that I believe are mispriced and worth betting. I'll jump right into those, and then I will update my top 10 power ratings and compare them to ESPN's new Week 14 list.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Baltimore Ravens make the playoffs YES -140
After taking care of the Dallas Cowboys on Tuesday night, my new projection for the Ravens to make the playoffs is now 61.4%. At -140, they only need to make the playoffs 58.3% of the time for this to be a profitable proposition. Baltimore faces Cleveland this week followed by games against the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals to finish the season. That's the easiest strength of schedule remaining in the league. They're going to be favorites in all four of these contests, and significant ones in those final three. At 11-5 or even 10-6 they're very likely to make it in. I expect the price to change pretty dramatically after the Browns game this week where the Ravens are only a short favorite, so I'm hopefully getting ahead buying this playoff bet now.
I also took a shot on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at +4000 this past weekend. It's rare that we ever get a top-five team at that price, but we are because they aren't a shoo-in to actually make the playoffs yet. If -- and hopefully when -- they do, anything in the 30-1 or better range will be considered a steal.
San Francisco 49ers make the playoffs YES +400
I expect the 49ers to sneak into the playoffs in the NFC 22% of the time, or a true price of +355. +400 now in Week 14 offers some value thanks to the San Francisco loss Monday night to Buffalo. It was interesting to see that the betting markets valued the 49ers two points better than the Bills on a neutral field. Regardless of the result, it's useful information. I personally thought the San Francisco love had gone a little too far and had priced the game an exact PK -- and I still think there is value here on the 49ers to make the playoffs.
Games against the NFC East these next two weeks are critical to our cause (Washington and Dallas), and divisional games against Arizona and Seattle round out the remaining schedule. Look, this is a bet that will lose more often than not, but I expect it to be profitable long-term. The 49ers still rank 10th in the entire NFL in adjusted EPA despite battling injuries on both sides of the ball the entire season. There aren't too many coaches I trust more than Kyle Shanahan, and while it's easy to point to that Bills game and say they don't have a real shot, that's the very reason we are getting such a good price here.
A record of 8-8 will give us a shot, but even a 9-7 finish to the season isn't out of the question. With Washington and Dallas on deck first, I have San Francisco sitting 7-7 more often than not. Once again, I'm trying to get out ahead of the likely scenario, and at that point the prospects of +400 will be looking really strong.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs YES -650
I know that most people aren't comfortable laying this kind of juice. I don't really look at things in that sort of context. I see -650 and I see roughly a 2% edge. I price this closer to -800. If somebody offered you an extra 2% flipping a coin on heads or tails, you'd take that every time.
Tampa Bay is solidified as the sixth seed in the NFC with a 7-5 record. They are going to be a favorite in all four of their remaining games, which equates to the 12th-easiest schedule in the league. The Buccaneers rank No. 2 in the NFL in adjusted EPA despite their "disappointing" record. Only the Saints and Packers have a better point differential in the NFC. This is surprisingly mispriced in my opinion, and if you don't have it in you to lay the hefty juice, at the very least I wouldn't be looking to bet against Tom Brady making the playoffs at the measly price of +450.
ESPN Power Rankings
Chiefs (11-1)
Steelers (11-1)
Saints (10-2)
Packers (9-3)
Bills (9-3)
Seahawks (8-4)
Rams (8-4)
Browns (9-3)
Buccaneers (7-5)
Titans (8-4)
Preston's power rankings
Chiefs
Saints (+2.2)
Steelers (+2.5)
Packers (+3.1)
Ravens (+3.1)
Rams (+3.9)
Buccaneers (+4.3)
Seahawks (+4.7)
Bills (+5.1)
Colts (+5.3)
The biggest news in the ESPN Week 14 power rankings is the Browns jumping into the No. 8 spot. I imagine that they looked at their road win over Tennessee on Sunday and decided that they had to rank them ahead of the Titans. As bettors, we don't look at things as what have you done for me lately. In fact, we oftentimes find value in the recency bias and overreactions we see from week to week. The truth is, the Titans were a four-point favorite before kickoff on Sunday. Just because they wound up losing that single-game event doesn't mean it was a bad line.
I have had Tennessee in my top 10 for the last few weeks, and while I did downgrade them slightly for their performance, the credit goes to the Bills ultimately for jumping into the list. The Titans are No. 11, though, and the Browns come in at No. 13. The fact of the matter is, despite their 9-3 record, Cleveland has been outscored this season by 15 points. It's unsustainable to win 75% of your games if you're being outscored, on average. The Browns rank 22nd in the NFL in adjusted EPA (Tennessee is eighth by the way). They are 28th defensively in success rate against the run, and 21st against the pass. They have a league-average offense.
It's easy for me to look past their win-loss record, but that isn't the case for others. Their underlying metrics on the season, however, don't have them anywhere near the eighth-best team in the NFL. The Browns deserve credit for pulling off these wins, don't get me wrong, but the conversation of them being legitimate Super Bowl contenders needs to slow down.