Happy Thanksgiving, everybody! We are breaking down some of the early moves this week one day sooner than usual. We don't have the ESPN power rankings public yet for me to compare my numbers to, but we'll get back at that routine next week. Spoiler alert for the rambunctious Twitter crowd after the Ravens lost to the Titans on Sunday: We have a new No. 2 this week, and it won't be a surprise (until they lose to the Ravens on Thursday).
We have three matchups set for Thanksgiving Day, but I will leave those games to be broken down by my colleagues (and myself) in other articles we publish throughout the week. There are four other games on the card Sunday that have already seen significant movement in the market anyway, and each one stands out to me for a range of reasons. Let's dive into these Week 12 matchups, and we'll pick up with our usual schedule again next week.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Tuesday.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 55) at Atlanta Falcons
Life for the Falcons after Dan Quinn's firing had been going pretty well leading up to their bye week. The Falcons had won three of four games, and their only loss was by one point to the Lions after Todd Gurley II tried to go down at the goal line but accidentally scored a touchdown, giving Detroit a chance to win the game in the final minute, which Matthew Stafford did with a touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson as time expired.
Why are the Falcons being so penalized here for losing to a Saints team that had won six in a row? This opened PK, and now they're getting three points? The New Orleans defense has been otherworldly of late, too. Remember that 38-3 drubbing of the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay? Not to mention, the Falcons were preparing for Jameis Winston for the majority of the week before the Saints announced that Taysom Hill would be the starter. I know the Raiders looked good Sunday against the Chiefs (in a loss), but I disagree pretty heavily with this move. My projection is Atlanta +0.9, and though Julio Jones aggravated a hamstring Sunday and is a game-time decision this week, this is still too drastic of a move on Las Vegas.
Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 48.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Fun fact: The Browns haven't played a game away from home since Oct. 25. More fun facts: The three games they played at home since then were all in severe weather conditions, and all finished well below the market totals. What happens as soon as the market opens the game in Jacksonville at 46.5? It gets bet up. There's even some rain in the early forecast, and the market didn't care.
Don't let the previous three Browns results fool you, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Even with the blessing of these weather conditions, the Browns' defense ranks 21st in the NFL in success rate against the pass and 26th against the run. The Jaguars' three-point showing Sunday against the Steelers' defense likely played a role in the low opener as well, but this was still the right move in this matchup on the total.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 54.5)
I nearly skipped this game for its straightforwardness, but it isn't often that you see the market opening up a total in Week 12 of the NFL season that is 3-3.5 points too low. The 51.5 was just a bad number. I'll eat crow if someone smashes this back down during the week, but 54.2 is my projection between these two teams, and I don't think anybody is shocked to see this in the mid-50s in a game between this 2020 Bills offense and a rookie in Justin Herbert who is setting rookie records through the air. I wouldn't try to get cute playing against the move in this one.
Miami Dolphins (-7, 44) at New York Jets
Before we all get up in arms over Brian Flores' decision to bench Tua Tagovailoa for Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday in Denver, Flores has already made it clear that Tua will be the quarterback for Miami in Week 12. What's interesting about how the offense struggled was that it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Humble brag here, but I was preaching it all week. In Tua's first two starts against the Rams and Cardinals, the Dolphins were outgained by nearly 500 yards, despite going 2-0. Do you know how hard it is to win games despite being outgained so massively? It's not sustainable. Tua showed flashes in those three weeks, but the offense was far from effective. The Dolphins followed with a game against the Chargers in which they started six of their possessions in Chargers territory.
Now it seems like the market is catching up, and because it's Joe Flacco and the Jets on the other side, everyone rushed to bet the under 46 down to 44. I'm not sure it's the right side, however. For starters, it's still the Jets on defense. If Tua is going to find success, a defense that ranks 31st in success rate against the pass is a great candidate. On the other hand, as much as I hate to put some stock into this, Flacco led this Jets offense to 27 points against the Patriots and 28 in Los Angeles against the Chargers. The Jets' pass protection has improved, and Flacco has taken advantage of opportunities through the air, especially with the deep ball (hashtag things I didn't think I would type this season).
The weather looks to be good, and my projection is spot-on with where the market opened this one at 46. With 44 and 45 being relatively key landing spots for game totals in this range, at this point, I'd look to play against the move only over the total of 44.