Week 11 brought us the NFL's first official playoff elimination of the 2020 season -- the New York Jets, naturally -- as well as a fun series of events that shook up the standings in both conferences. Here's a glimpse from Sunday afternoon:
4:15 p.m. ET: The Titans walked off with a 30-24 overtime victory over the Ravens, pulling Tennessee a half-game ahead of the Colts in the AFC South.
4:18 p.m. ET: The Browns completed a 22-17 victory over the Eagles, allowing them to leapfrog the Ravens in the AFC North standings.
7:52 p.m. ET: The Colts beat the Packers in overtime, pulling them even with the Titans to set up a massive Week 12 game. Oh, and the Packers' loss puts the Saints in control of the NFC.
It's now pretty clear that the league is competitively tilted toward the AFC, where nine teams have winning records. The NFC has six winning teams, and four three-win teams are pillow-fighting it out for the NFC East lead. Let's take a closer look at the current playoff landscape, using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) for context where appropriate.
AFC
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.9%
FPI chances to win division: 96.8%
We're starting to get into historic territory with these Steelers. After Sunday's win over the Jaguars, they became the 18th team since 1966 to start a season 10-0. Of the previous 17, nine reached the Super Bowl, and six of them won it, most recently the Saints in 2009. They'll have a chance to complete a season sweep of the Ravens on Thanksgiving as they near the AFC North title.
Up next: vs. Ravens
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.9%
FPI chances to win division: 98.9%
A wild win on Sunday night in Las Vegas put the Chiefs in a commanding position in the AFC West. The FPI now gives them a 99% chance to win it for the fifth consecutive year. After absorbing the best game the Raiders could possibly play, the Chiefs will put enormous pressure on the Steelers to keep winning -- or else give up the No. 1 seed.
Up next: at Buccaneers
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 89.9%
FPI chances to win division: 85.0%
On their bye, the Bills got some breathing room as all three AFC East rivals lost. In addition to officially ridding themselves of the winless Jets, the Bills moved a full game ahead of the Dolphins and three ahead of the Patriots. There is still work to be done, potentially as late as Week 16 (against the Patriots) and Week 17 (Dolphins). But the Bills are in great position for their first division title since 1995, when their coach was Marv Levy and their quarterback was Jim Kelly.
Up next: vs. Chargers
4. Indianapolis Colts (7-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 71.2%
FPI chances to win division: 48.3%
Sunday's massive comeback against the Packers allowed the Colts to keep pace with the Titans in the AFC South, and it set up a huge rematch between the teams in Week 12. A Colts victory would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker and, in essence, give them a two-game lead in the division with five games left to play. They've now won four of their past five games.
Up next: vs. Titans
5. Tennessee Titans (7-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 84.8%
FPI chances to win division: 51.4%
It's hard to know what to make of the Titans. They started 5-0, then lost three of their next four before Sunday's overtime victory. If they lose in Week 12 to the Colts, they'll effectively be two games out of the AFC South race with five games to play. And with the way the AFC is shaping up, it could take 10 wins to secure a playoff spot, even with an expanded seven-team field. You can't win more than one game per week, but their matchup with Indianapolis is a big one for the Titans.
Up next: at Colts
6. Cleveland Browns (7-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 57.5%
FPI chances to win division: 0.7%
Would you look at this? The Browns are off to their best start through 10 games since 1994. No matter how they're winning, or whom they are beating, the Browns have staked themselves to a decent playoff position as Thanksgiving approaches. It's true that the Browns have defeated only one team (Indianapolis) that currently has a winning record. But with the Jaguars, Jets and Giants representing half of their remaining schedule, it might not matter.
Up next: at Jaguars
7. Las Vegas Raiders (6-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 71.0%
FPI chances to win division: 1.1%
Sunday night brought quite a turn of events for the Raiders. A victory over the Chiefs would have given them a season sweep, guaranteeing that the head-to-head tiebreakers would fall their way, and thus pull them within one game of the AFC West lead. Instead, they are three games behind with five left to play and appear destined to fight it out for a wild-card spot.
Up next: at Falcons
Also in the AFC mix
Baltimore Ravens (6-4): They've lost three of their past four games after a 5-1 start and are looking up at two teams in the AFC North. The good news is they'll play both of those teams, the Steelers and Browns, in the next three weeks.
Miami Dolphins (6-4): Their five-game winning streak came to an end in Denver, but they have a good chance to get back on track in Week 12 against the Jets.
NFC
1. New Orleans Saints (8-2)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.7%
FPI chances to win division: 89.1%
Sunday's win over the Falcons, combined with the Packers' overtime loss to the Colts, put the Saints in control of the NFC. They've won seven consecutive games since a Week 3 loss to the Packers, finishing the last two without starting quarterback Drew Brees. And now the Saints move to one of the weirder parts of their schedule. They'll play three consecutive road games, but all of them are against very beatable opponents: Denver, Atlanta and Philadelphia.
Up next: at Broncos
2. Los Angeles Rams (7-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 94.8%
FPI chances to win division: 48.6%
Monday night's rousing win in Tampa allowed the Rams to overtake the Seahawks in the NFC West entering Week 12. The temporary tiebreaker is their Week 10 victory in the teams' first matchup. What the win really meant is that the division is totally up for grabs and might not be decided until the end of next month, when the Rams finish their season with consecutive games against the Seahawks and Cardinals.
Up next: vs. 49ers
3. Green Bay Packers (7-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 97.1%
FPI chances to win division: 92.6%
You'll be pardoned if you saw the Packers leading the Colts 28-14 at halftime on Sunday and pinned them to the top of the conference. In 99 previous games with a 14-point lead, Aaron Rodgers' teams had won 96 times. But the Packers lost in overtime, giving the Saints a leg up in the conference and sending the Packers tumbling down to the third spot.
Up next: vs. Bears
4. Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 44.2%
FPI chances to win division: 44.1%
It's pretty incredible that the Eagles remain atop the NFC East, albeit barely, after failing to win Sunday for the seventh time in 10 games. It'll be miraculous if they can hold on for more than a couple more weeks. Philadelphia will face four consecutive playoff-caliber teams -- Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans and Arizona -- over the next month. The real question is whether the Eagles will be in last place at the end of that run. All three NFC East rivals are within a half-game of the lead, but for now, the FPI still favors the Eagles in the division.
Up next: vs. Seahawks
5. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 96.0%
FPI chances to win division: 39.6%
Thursday night's victory over the Cardinals accomplished two things for the Seahawks. First, it eliminated the Cardinals' chance to win a head-to-head tiebreaker against them. Second, it put the Seahawks back in (at least temporary) control of the NFC West. But the Rams' victory on Monday night in Tampa Bay returned them to the wild-card race.
Up next: at Eagles
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 92.0%
FPI chances to win division: 10.9%
The Buccaneers sure didn't look like a Super Bowl contender on Monday night. Tom Brady threw a pair of interceptions, but more importantly, the offense he is leading looked disjointed and physically overmatched by the Rams. With that said, the Buccaneers have staked themselves to a strong wild-card position and now have two more home games (against the Chiefs and Vikings) to try to get themselves stabilized. If the Bucs can get through that stretch, they'll finish the season with three very winnable games: two against the Falcons sandwiched around one at the Lions. This will be a fun one to watch.
Up next: vs. Chiefs
7. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 63.0%
FPI chances to win division: 10.9%
Even after Thursday night's loss to the Seahawks, the Cardinals remain on track to be one of three NFC West teams to earn a playoff spot. It would be their first playoff appearance in six seasons and third in 11 seasons. For those who want to see the Cardinals challenge for the division title, keep in mind that they still have both games remaining against the Rams.
Up next: at Patriots
Also in the NFC mix
Chicago Bears (5-5): In these rankings, the Bears are knocking at the door. But the reality is they are going in the wrong direction, having lost four consecutive games while displaying little evidence they can play effectively on offense. It won't get any easier in Week 12 at Green Bay.
New York Giants (3-7): The Giants watched their fortunes improve during the bye, but keep an eye on a COVID-19 outbreak that included four players last week.
Washington Football Team (3-7): Washington beat the Bengals to collect its third win, but its upcoming schedule isn't much better than the Eagles' slate. Three consecutive road games -- at Dallas, Pittsburgh and San Francisco -- will make it difficult to keep up in the division.
Dallas Cowboys (3-7): A bye week, and the return of quarterback Andy Dalton, suddenly has the Cowboys back in the race. They'll get an opportunity to make another move if they can defeat Washington on Thanksgiving.