Tom Brady has lost a couple of Super Bowls to the New York Giants, but Brady's 5-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are big favorites over the 1-6 Giants on Monday (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
ESPN betting experts Doug Kezirian and Anita Marks and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday (unless otherwise indicated).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13, 45) at New York Giants
Buccaneers -13
Kezirian: Laying double-digit points on the road is not a long-term recipe for success in betting the NFL. However, certain situations call for it, and this is one of them. These two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Bucs have covered two straight games and have their eyes on the conference's top seed following Green Bay's loss to Minnesota. The Giants also have been brutal in this situation, failing to cover in seven straight games as home underdogs since the beginning of last season and going 1-12-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2018 season.
Buccaneers -7 (first half)
Marks: Tampa Bay's defense is so good that I don't see how Daniel Jones and the Giants will be able to score many points. The Buccaneers seem to get better every week, and the Giants continue to turn the ball over and lose close games. The Giants also will be without running back Devonta Freeman, and Wayne Gallman is a far cry from Saquon Barkley.
Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions
Schatz: Jones has seven interceptions this year, with only one game in which he didn't throw one. Tampa Bay has nine interceptions on defense. Interceptions are more likely when a team is behind and trying to come back, which is probably going to be the script of this game. This is a good pick (no pun intended), even at -180.
Tyler Johnson over 3.5 receptions and 35.5 rec yards
Marks: Chris Godwin will be inactive, and Mike Evans is playing with an ankle injury. Evans should draw the James Bradberry assignment, which is always a tough one. Johnson will play out of the slot and should receive a few looks from Brady in the red zone.
Leonard Fournette over 2.5 receptions and 19.5 rec yards
Marks: Fournette played more snaps than Ronald Jones last week. More importantly, Fournette ran passing routes on more than 50% of Brady's dropbacks, finishing the game with seven targets and almost 50 receiving yards. I see the same kind of thing happening Monday against the Giants. This number is way too low as this is my favorite bet on the board.