The 2020 college football season has been more Royal Rumble than Battle Royal. Instead of the season beginning with a deluge, we've welcomed teams to the party in batches -- among the Power 5 conferences, the Big 12 and ACC went first, followed by the SEC.
Now the Big Ten joins the fray for Week 8, and it will be followed by the Pac-12. From a rankings standpoint it's awfully hard to track -- how do you judge a 1-0 Ohio State against a 6-0 Clemson? But it's also be pretty fun. Fourteen more power-conference teams will make their season debuts over the course of seven games this weekend, so let's talk about the matchups.
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday.
Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers (-19.5, 51.5), Friday, 8 p.m. ET
SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 23.5 (37.3-13.9)
Illinois covers if ... the defensive line holds up. The Illini are replacing last year's top four up front, and while end/tackle Jamal Woods and 300-pound South Carolina State transfer Roderick Perry could be exciting playmakers, starting out with Wisconsin's absurd offensive line is one heck of a test. The Badgers lost some starters up front, too, but still have tackles Cole Van Lanen and Logan Bruss and guard Jon Dietzen, a 2.5-year starter who missed 2019. Average size among Wisconsin starters: 6-foot-5, 321 pounds.
Wisconsin covers if ... Graham Mertz is ready. Wisconsin fans have been pining to get a look at the redshirt freshman blue-chipper, but it took an injury to starter Jack Coan to make that happen. (Coan's absence is likely why SP+ likes the Badgers more than the oddsmakers. Because he's not officially out for the season, I didn't remove him from the projections.)
We know the Badgers are going to lean on the run, but the quarterback still has to make some throws. If he looks the part -- and if a Quintez Cephus-less receiving corps also does its job -- the Badgers will roll.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-26, 67.5), Noon ET
SP+ projection: Ohio State by 22.8 (41.3-18.5)
Nebraska covers if ... Adrian Martinez is finally ready to beat a good defense. Thanks to circumstance -- he took over a Scott Frost offense as a true freshman in 2018 -- Martinez was hyped as the next McKenzie Milton, and while he's had his moments, he hasn't been that. And he has been mostly dreadful against good teams.
In seven games against ranked foes, Martinez has produced a 113.5 passer rating with nine interceptions. (Against everyone else: 145.3 rating.) Nebraska is almost certainly not going to beat Ohio State, but if Martinez is ready to do some damage with a remodeled receiving corps, the Cornhuskers can at least score enough to keep it close for a while.
Ohio State covers if ... the Buckeyes' defensive line looks the part. It's hard to doubt Ohio State's defensive front because it regularly produces NFL talent, but it might be the closest thing to a question mark on the roster this year, with three of four starters gone. Nebraska's offensive line is strong and experienced, and we'll quickly find out if the Buckeyes are up to snuff there. They will have too much offense for the Cornhuskers regardless, but we'll quickly learn what we need to know about Ohio State in the trenches.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans (N/A), Noon ET
SP+ projection: Michigan State by 16.7 (30.2-13.5)
Rutgers covers if ... the new guys provide some surprises. Take your pick of who I mean by "new guys." New coaches? Absolutely. Head man Greg Schiano, offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson and defensive coordinator Robb Smith need to channel their inner Arkansas staff and create some early energy and surprising tactics. New players? That too. Schiano signed a boatload of transfers, and four of them -- former Wisconsin receiver Aron Cruickshank, West Virginia tight end Jovani Haskins, Michigan D-tackle Michael Dwumfour and Ohio State safety Brendon White -- are listed as immediate starters.
Staying within two touchdowns of a rebuilding Michigan State is a pretty low bar. If the newbies surprise, at least a cover could be in the works.
Michigan State covers if ... the Spartans' defense remains the Spartans' defense. Retired head coach Mark Dantonio fielded a top-15 D for the majority of his time in East Lansing, and new coach Mel Tucker made a nice coordinator hire in Scottie Hazelton. Depth could be an issue, but the first string has quality. It wouldn't be a shock if Michigan State's offense started slowly, but if the defense is reining in Rutgers' new offensive pieces, the Spartans should still earn an easy win.
No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 59) at Indiana Hoosiers, 3:30 p.m. ET
SP+ projection: Penn State by 9.9 (32.6-22.7)
Penn State covers if ... a young receiver or two is ready. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is outstanding, and junior Jahan Dotson returns, but to run former Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca's system the way it needs to be run, at least one more receiver -- be it sophomore Daniel George, junior Cam Sullivan-Brown or a freshman -- has to present an immediate threat.
The running game should still be solid with or without star Journey Brown (who might miss the 2020 season), but you have to punish defenses for loading up against the ground game. Plus Indiana cornerback Tiawan Mullen is one of the nation's best, and you might need to attack with whomever he isn't covering.
Indiana covers if ... last year's passing-downs magic remains. Indiana stayed within seven points of Penn State in Happy Valley last year thanks to serious success on passing downs (second-and-8+, third- or fourth-and-5+). Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey was 11-for-15 for 214 yards on such downs, and Penn State's Sean Clifford was 5-for-14 for 62 yards. Penn State's defense was prone to random breakdowns on passing downs, and Indiana took advantage better than most.
It's like break points in tennis -- even if you aren't quite as good down for down, if you're winning the key plays -- the get-off-the-field plays -- you're going to stay pretty close on the scoreboard.
Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5, 54.5) at Purdue Boilermakers, 3:30 p.m. ET
SP+ projection: Iowa by 4.6 (29.1-24.4)
Iowa covers if ... a good secondary can contain a great receiving corps. The return of Purdue's Rondale Moore not only gives the Boilermakers star power, it also means other intriguing players including sophomores David Bell, Milton Wright and Amad Anderson Jr. get attention from cornerbacks further down the pecking order.
Iowa's secondary appears to be rock solid -- corner Matt Hankins is sturdy and experienced, and junior Riley Moss was incredible in a small sample last season. But the Hawkeyes will have to be more than merely solid in this one.
Purdue covers if ... the pass rush gets home. Nate Stanley, Iowa's 2019 quarterback, was good at fending off blitzers and making solid (if short) throws on obvious passing situations. New starting QB Spencer Petras is about as big as Stanley, but we don't know how he'll stand up to a pass rush.
We also don't know if Purdue has a pass rush. The Boilermakers were 101st in sack rate last year. Derrick Barnes and George Karlaftis each had 7.5 sacks, but almost no one else got involved. If Petras has time, his receivers should be good enough to get open.
No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (-3, 55) at No. 21 Minnesota Golden Gophers, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)
SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 (29.6-26.8)
Michigan covers if ... the kids are ready. Michigan's offense improved dramatically in the second half of 2019, from 66th to 21st in offensive SP+, but quarterback Shea Patterson and basically every primary wideout after top target Ronnie Bell are gone. Since SP+ projections heavily value continuity in the passing game, this likely accounts for much of the difference between spread and SP+ projection.
Sophomore Joe Milton takes over behind center, and a trio of sophomore WRs -- Mike Sainristil, Giles Jackson and Cornelius Johnson -- will have to come through immediately. Milton has a massive arm, and those sophomores combined for 349 yards in just 21 catches last year. The big-play potential is obvious, and Minnesota's defense is breaking in a couple of new starting safeties. But relying on sophomores often backfires for obvious reasons.
Minnesota covers if ... it still has a strong No. 2 receiver. The Gophers got a huge boost when Rashod Bateman opted back in for 2020. They had a devastating offense last year by combining steady running with big passes against wrong-footed defenses, and while leading wideout Tyler Johnson is gone, Bateman remains a phenom.
He needs a dance partner, though, especially against what should be a strong Michigan secondary. Chris Autman-Bell was excellent in a complementary role last year, but now he's going to be facing cornerbacks higher on the pecking order. After that, the receiving corps is almost totally green. Does Minnesota have the same ability to punish whatever decision a defense makes?
Maryland Terrapins at Northwestern Wildcats (-11, 54.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
SP+ projection: Northwestern by 9.8 (26.9-17.1)
Maryland covers if ... early-2019 Maryland makes another appearance. Mike Locksley's Terps were incredible out of the gate last year, outscoring their first two (bad) opponents by a 142-20 margin, but then they faded miserably.
Maryland will be led by either of two young blue-chip quarterbacks -- Taulia Tagovailoa or Lance LeGendre -- and the receiving corps has the potential for a fast start. But the running back corps and both lines are getting rebuilt, and Northwestern's defense can usually handle a one-dimensional offense.
Northwestern covers if ... it has an offense. Period. The Wildcats had one of the worst offenses in recent Power-5 history last year, especially during the first nine games of the year. Pat Fitzgerald brought in a new offensive coordinator (Mike Bajakian) and new quarterback (Indiana transfer Peyton Ramsey), and his skill corps and line are both pretty experienced. We should absolutely see improved competence across the board. But how much?
Maryland is thin up front and inexperienced at cornerback. Whatever changes Bajakian wants to install, the Terps are a pretty good first opponent for trying things out. If Northwestern can't move the ball on them, that's a pretty big red flag.