It is the ultimate sign of the times in college football: the survive-and-advance shootout. From 2000 through 2010, no top-five team won a game while allowing 600-plus yards, as the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide did against the Ole Miss Rebels last weekend. Since 2011, though, it's happened 12 times. While this used to be a guarantee of impending doom, it now might simply be one of the hurdles you have to clear on your way to a national championship.
Oct. 29, 2011: No. 3 Oklahoma State 59, Baylor 24
What happened: The best Oklahoma State team ever moved to 8-0 by bending and bending but not breaking until the game was out of hand. Baylor's Robert Griffin III threw for 425 yards, but OSU forced five turnovers and stopped the Bears twice on fourth-and-1. Incredibly, OSU held a 49-3 lead after three quarters despite a yardage margin of only plus-60 yards.
What happened next:
Nov. 3, 2012: No. 2 Oregon 62, No. 18 USC 51
What happened: In their hunt for a second BCS title game appearance in three years, coach Chip Kelly's final Oregon team bolted to a 21-3 lead, watched its advantage wither to three points on two occasions, and then eventually put the game away. USC's Matt Barkley threw for 484 yards and five touchdowns, but three first-half turnovers and a 321-yard rushing performance from Oregon's Kenjon Barner proved too much to overcome. Head coach of those 2012 Trojans, by the way? Lane Kiffin. He'll become a recurring character.
What happened next: Two weeks later, Oregon lost to USC's stylistic opposite. The Ducks created six scoring chances but managed just 14 points in an overtime loss to Stanford. They finished 12-1 with the top-ranked offense per SP+ and the No. 17 defense.
Sept. 14, 2013: No. 1 Alabama 49, No. 6 Texas A&M 42
What happened: A long Vinnie Sunseri pick-six gave the two-time defending national champions a 35-14 lead against Johnny Manziel and A&M, but the Aggies refused to go away. They scored touchdowns on four of their last five possessions, and Manziel finished with 464 passing yards and five touchdowns, including a 95-yarder to Mike Evans. Alabama recovered an onside kick in the final seconds and ran out the clock.
What happened next: For a while, things proceeded as normal. The Tide allowed only 5.6 points per game over their next nine contests before getting sucked under by the Kick Six at Auburn, then getting lit up by Oklahoma's spread in the Sugar Bowl. This was the year we all decided Nick Saban had a problem with spread offenses. (Alabama finished first in defensive SP+ for each of the next four years.)
Nov. 30, 2013: No. 3 Ohio State 42, Michigan 41
What happened: Urban Meyer moved to 24-0 as Ohio State's coach, but it required a Tyvis Powell interception on a late two-point conversion. Carlos Hyde and Braxton Miller combined for 379 rushing yards, but Michigan's Devin Gardner (451 passing yards and four scores) enjoyed a career day. Ohio State took a 14-point lead into the fourth quarter, but three Gardner touchdown passes, the last to Devin Funchess, gave Michigan a shot at the win before Powell saved the winning streak.
What happened next: The streak ended the next week. The Buckeyes eased to a 24-17 lead over Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game, but behind Connor Cook's 304 passing yards and Jeremy Langford's 128 rushing yards, the Spartans scored the game's last 17 points. The Buckeyes lost the Orange Bowl to a prolific Clemson as well and finished second in offensive SP+ but 44th on defense.
Nov. 29, 2014: No. 1 Alabama 55, No. 15 Auburn 44
What happened: Auburn took a 36-27 lead late in the third quarter before a 28-0 Crimson Tide run put the game away. Still, Auburn's Nick Marshall threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns, and only solid red zone defense -- Auburn had to settle for five field goals, all under 35 yards -- saved the day. Alabama's top-ranked defense was suddenly showing cracks.
What happened next: Alabama was too strong for Missouri the next week in the SEC title game, but in the inaugural College Football Playoff semifinals, the Crimson Tide fell victim to 537 yards from Ohio State -- 243 from Cardale Jones' arm and 230 from Ezekiel Elliott's legs -- and watched a 21-6 lead turn into a 42-35 loss.
Sept. 26, 2015: No. 3 TCU 55, Texas Tech 52, and Oct. 3, 2015: No. 5 Baylor 63, Texas Tech 35
What happened: Patrick Mahomes happened, basically. In back-to-back losses to top-five conference rivals, the eventual Super Bowl hero completed 57 of 95 passes for 807 yards and five touchdowns. His 50-yarder to Justin Stockton looked like it might sink TCU, but Aaron Green caught a deflected fourth-and-goal touchdown to put the Horned Frogs back in front. The game ended with one of the most spectacular lateral fests you'll ever see, but it came up 10 yards short.
The next week featured similar fireworks but far less drama. Mahomes had injured his knee against TCU and was at less than full strength, throwing two picks before succumbing to Davis Webb late in the game. Granted, Mahomes and Webb still combined for 530 passing yards, but four Tech turnovers and 221 rushing yards from Shock Linwood gave Baylor all the cushion it needed.
What happened next: Both Baylor and TCU remained unbeaten into November, but their defensive flaws caught up to them. TCU fell 49-29 to Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State on Nov. 7, then Baylor lost at home the next week to Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma, 44-34. After starting a combined 16-0, they finished 5-5. Baylor finished third in offensive SP+ but 44th on defense; TCU was 13th and 32nd, respectively.
Nov. 4, 2017: No. 5 Oklahoma 62, No. 11 Oklahoma State 52
What happened: Mayfield threw for 598 yards and five touchdowns, but the combination of Rudolph's 448 passing yards and Justice Hill's 228 rushing yards kept OSU in it until the end. The Cowboys had a chance to take the lead in the final minute, but turned the ball over on downs in OU territory. One play later, Trey Sermon's 53-yard touchdown run put the game away.
What happened next: OU made Georgia look like a Big 12 offense. In one of the greatest Rose Bowls ever, the Sooners -- who had won out to win the conference title again -- bolted to a 17-point first-half lead, gave up a 24-0 run, took the lead back, and then the Bulldogs forced overtime and eventually won, 54-48. After ranking 17th in defensive SP+ in 2015, OU finished 43rd in 2017, and then fell to 84th in 2018.
Nov. 24, 2018: No. 2 Clemson 56, South Carolina 35
What happened: Another rivalry game got weird. Clemson had allowed 237 yards per game over its past nine contests, but Gamecocks QB Jake Bentley completed 32 of 50 passes for 510 yards and five TDs, and Deebo Samuel's 75-yard score meant the Tigers were up just 28-21 at halftime. The yards continued after halftime, but Clemson eventually took control with a 21-0 run.
What happened next: To date, such a game was a sign of a fatal flaw, one that would eventually catch up to the offender and wreck its title bid. This wasn't the case for Dabo Swinney's Tigers. They would allow just 13 points to Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, and while Alabama would gain well over 400 yards in the College Football Playoff final, the Crimson Tide scored only 16 points thanks to turnovers and red zone stops. Clemson finished third in defensive SP+ and claimed its second national championship in three years.
Nov. 16, 2019: No. 1 LSU 58, Ole Miss 37
What happened: In Rich Rodriguez's shining moment as Ole Miss' offensive coordinator, the Rebels' John Rhys Plumlee rushed for 212 yards and threw for 123 more. Unfortunately, most of that came after LSU had already taken a 31-7 halftime lead. Ole Miss scored 30 points and gained 405 yards after the break, constantly crawling back to within two scores and forcing the Tigers to keep their starters in. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 49-yard touchdown put the game away for LSU, but it was exhausting.
What happened next: LSU's banged-up defense had struggled for much of the season, allowing 28+ points in five of 10 games to date. But this turned out to be a turning point -- the Tigers held their next three opponents to 12 points per game, and held both Oklahoma and Clemson under 30 points on their way to the national title.
Sept. 26, 2020: No. 5 Florida 51, Ole Miss 35
What happened: New Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin unleashed hell on Dan Mullen's Gators, with Matt Corral throwing for 395 yards and three touchdowns and the Rebels averaging 7.9 yards per play. Unfortunately for Kiffin, Kyle Trask did a heck of a Joe Burrow impression, throwing for 416 yards and six scores, and after going up 21 early in the second half, Florida's lead never shrank below 15.
What happened next: It turned out that Florida's defensive efficiency issues weren't limited to Ole Miss. Two weeks later in College Station, Texas A&M's Kellen Mond and Isaiah Spiller picked the Gators apart -- the former threw for 338 yards and three scores, and the latter rushed for 174 and two more. Down 11 late in the third quarter, A&M surged back and won via a last-second field goal.
Oct. 10, 2020: No. 2 Alabama 63, Ole Miss 48
What happened: Let the record remain on the books forever: Nick Saban, maybe college football's best defensive coach of the 21st century, was involved in the SEC's most prolific game ever. Corral threw for 365 yards, and running backs Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy combined for 248 more. Alabama had to keep its offense in fifth gear to finally break a tie and finish the game on a 21-6 run. The damage: 111 combined points, 1,370 total yards.
What happens next? There's evidence for both Crimson Tide optimism and pessimism moving forward.
Optimism: Surviving a wild scoreboard explosion has been a rite of passage for each of the past two national champions. These are boom times for college football offenses, and you're going to get sucked into a track meet here and there.
Pessimism: This isn't an elite Alabama defense at the moment. The Crimson Tide haven't finished lower than seventh in defensive SP+ since 2007, Saban's first year in charge, but they were projected 19th this year because of extreme turnover in the secondary, and that secondary got its butt kicked last Saturday in Oxford.
The Crimson Tide are now down to 22nd in defensive SP+. They have forced three-and-outs on only 9% of their opponents' possessions, third worst in FBS, and they can't get off the field when opponents are behind schedule -- they're 71st in success rate allowed on passing downs, and 73rd in third-and-long success rate. The problems began before Ole Miss.
Could they turn things around? Of course. LSU's defense made a full 180-degree turnaround after Ole Miss, and Alabama's next three games are against two offenses that are talented but stodgy by the SEC's new standards (Georgia and Tennessee) and a Mississippi State offense that set a new land speed record by completely losing its way in about a week.
Alabama's struggles could simply be a sign of the times, but it's still a pretty big red flag until the Tide prove otherwise.