Week 4 of the NFL season wraps up with a rescheduled game featuring two of the AFC's finest, plus an NFC tussle.
The 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs will host the 2-1 New England Patriots at 7:05 p.m. ET, in a game originally scheduled for Sunday.
The regularly scheduled Monday Night Football matchup has the 3-0 Green Bay Packers at home against the 0-3 Atlanta Falcons, at the slightly later than usual time of 8:50 p.m. ET (on ESPN).
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed up to offer their best bets on the two games.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 50)
Chiefs -11
Fortenbaugh: I was a huge fan of backing the Patriots +7 entering the weekend for two reasons. First, the Chiefs were operating on a short week following their Monday night blowout of the Ravens in Baltimore. Well, that advantage has been negated due to the postponement. Second, I thought Cam Newton & Co. -- ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per rushing attempt -- would be able to grind down the clock, control the tempo and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline against a Chiefs defense ranked 28th in the league in opponent yards per rushing attempt. Well, now that Newton has been ruled out, I have little faith that journeyman Brian Hoyer can effectively execute the same game plan. No need to overthink this one.
Mahomes over 2.5 touchdown passes (+160)
Marks: Mahomes is coming off a game in which he dismantled the Ravens' defense, including one of the best secondaries in the NFL. In three career games against the Patriots, Mahomes has eight touchdown passes. And the past two weeks, this Pats secondary has allowed seven TD passes -- two of those to Derek Carr, along with 261 passing yards.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 56.5)
Falcons +7 or better
Fortenbaugh: The last time we saw the Packers they were burying the Saints in New Orleans in a nationally televised Sunday night matchup. That image is still fresh in the minds of the betting public. The last time we saw the Falcons they were blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead for the second week in a row to move to 0-3 on the season. That image is equally fresh in the minds of the betting public. What I'm getting at here is rather simple: I believe there is value backing the Falcons, since this will be one of the most lopsided ticket counts of the weekend. Plus Green Bay currently ranks dead last in the NFL in opponent yards per play (6.6).
Bearman: This game will go one of two ways. Either the Falcons quit on head coach Dan Quinn and he doesn't make it back to Atlanta, or they put up a fight for three and a half quarters and then blow another lead. The early line was 7.5, which is a lot of points considering the Packers have decided to play Big 12 football this season. Regardless of the end result, Atlanta has scored no fewer than 25 points, and led the past two games by double digits in the fourth quarter. The Falcons are getting crushed in the media, and rightfully so, but they do have a dynamic offense and have played decent defense in the first three quarters of the past two games.
As for the Packers, their offense has been even better, to the tune of a league-high 122 points (40.6 PPG) through three games. But their defense has been almost as bad, allowing over 28 PPG in wins over the Vikings, Lions and Saints. Green Bay's pass defense is 28th in the league, allowing 7.9 yards per play, and its rush defense is 29th, allowing 5.5 yards per run. Matt Ryan and the Falcons' offense should be able to keep up in this expected shootout in a virtual must-win situation, but you can't trust them, so moving from 6.5 to 7.5 is a comfortable cushion. Hopefully you got it earlier in the week when Preston Johnson mentioned the 7.5, but even at 6.5/7, it's good value.
Packers -6.5
Marks: It's going to be difficult for Atlanta to come back from not just one, but two crushing losses. The Dan Quinn hot-seat chatter has to be a distraction, and the Falcons' defense is just awful, allowing opposing teams to score a touchdown on 40% of their offensive possessions. Aaron Rodgers is playing like a man possessed, he gets his favorite target back in Davante Adams, and this Packers offense is scoring at will. Lay the points.
Ryan over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-200)
Schatz: The Packers have given up seven passing touchdowns in three games, and Ryan himself has seven passing touchdowns in three games. Plus the Packers rank 28th in defensive DVOA so far this season. Even if the Falcons are behind because they're giving up a lot of points, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Ryan, and it does now look as though both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will play.