Overs are still on fire, and I investigated a few reasons that we shouldn't expect an immediate correction in Week 4 in my first-look piece Sunday night. It doesn't look like the immediate market reaction is too skewed one way or the other either, with six totals moving to the over, four games moving to the under and six more that have been fairly stagnant.
Here is a deeper look at three of the biggest movers:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 49)
Last week in our market watch, we noted that the Dolphins-Jaguars total had moved from 44 to 47.
We're talking about a total, so let's start with the pace metrics in this matchup first. You might look and see that the Bengals are the fifth-fastest team in the NFL, running 24.57 seconds between plays. Well, that doesn't always paint the truest picture. Remember that game in Cleveland that saw Joe Burrow throw 61 times and Cincinnati run 88 plays? The Bengals were trailing for the majority of that contest. They actually rank 18th in the league in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. You know who is finally a favorite in a football game in Week 4? The Bengals. We can expect Cincinnati to be leading or for this to at least be a relatively close game. Fun fact: The Jaguars rank dead last in the NFL in situation-neutral pace, at 34.15 seconds per play.
I have another surprise. The Bengals have graded out as sneaky-awesome defensively through three weeks -- particularly against the pass. The defense ranks ninth in DVOA, seventh in opponent pass yards per attempt (6.3) and second in success rate against the pass. I'm not leaving out their rush defense because it skews the narrative; they have been nearly league average in that regard. It just surprised me how elite they have been in defending the pass. Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz aren't quarterbacks who will get anybody too excited, but Gardner Minshew II and the Jacksonville passing attack that could be missing DJ Chark Jr. for the second consecutive week isn't either.
This is pushing 49.5 at some shops after opening at 46.5 early. I project the opener closer to the fair number, so at this point, I would look to be betting only under in the matchup.
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (+3, 52)
This is a move up from 49.5 that I think is every bit deserving. We have seen how much more efficient the Buffalo offense has been passing more heavily on early downs and utilizing play-action. Ranking sixth in DVOA and third in yards per play is no joke. Adjusting for strength of opponent hinders the projected ceiling for the time being, but the Raiders defensively aren't anything to write home about. Las Vegas is No. 31 of 32 teams in defensive DVOA, and the Raiders aren't much better in other metrics.
What surprised me most after diving into this matchup was that the Bills' defense ranks dead last in the NFL in success rate against the run, despite having faced the Dolphins and Jets in two of their three games. Josh Jacobs and the Raiders should find success in the ground game, and their passing attack is No. 5 in success rate.
There isn't anything too disingenuous about their underlying pace metrics, either, and the total of 52 looks spot-on. There's a chance that we see Buffalo totals open a tad low for a few more games before the market completely catches up, so keep an eye out for that in Week 5.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 58)
The total line of 58 might look high at first glance, but I project the game fairly close to the market at 57.0. The Packers grade out as a bottom-five defense in DVOA, and they currently rank last in the NFL in opponent yards per play. They are 3-0 despite the lack of defense because they are scoring 40.7 points per game behind a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers. That shouldn't change much against a Falcons defense that has been struggling mightily on their end as well.
The look here that intrigues me is the side moving from Packers -6.5, through the key number of seven, to -7.5. We just witnessed quite possibly the two biggest meltdowns in back-to-back games in the history of the league when Atlanta lost to Dallas and Chicago the past two weeks. How will the Falcons respond? Everybody is calling for Dan Quinn's job. He could be fired by the time this article is published Wednesday morning!
Despite all of that, a move from -6.5 to -7.5 is too significant to disregard. I have the Falcons covering +7.5 56.7% of the time in this matchup. Even at the price of -120, I expect this to be a profitable proposition long-term. At +7, however, it isn't worth a look. As a few books push toward the +7.5, I think the only play on Monday is to hold your nose and back the underdog.