Overs continued to be very successful in Week 3. In fact, overs were 7-0 when the Bengals and Eagles went into overtime needing just one point to push the game over the total. Neither team scored, and a few more unders came in later, but overs are still the big story once again.
I mentioned last week that I wouldn't be blindly looking to bet overs or unders in Week 3. I don't think we are necessarily ripe for a correction in Week 4, either. Beyond the unique offseason and the lack of preseason games, there is at least one other likely reason that scoring is up so much.
Through the first two weeks of this season, the average amount of time between plays was 26.69 seconds, according to Football Outsiders. That's nearly a full second faster than in 2019 (27.63), which saw an increase in pace of play, compared to 28.05 in 2018. There are situation-specific factors when it comes to seconds per play; Football Outsiders accounts for those with its situation-neutral pace metric. That shows seconds per play being 1.3 faster in 2020 than in 2019.
This isn't groundbreaking, but if teams are playing at a faster pace, more plays will be run. More plays equal more points. Until we see a significant shift in the market with extraordinarily high totals or see a shift from offenses stylistically, I don't see any reason to expect a significant correction in Week 4.
There isn't much that stands out to me after a first look at the spreads and totals this week. The last thing we want to do is force early action, so I am looking at only one matchup right now. But come back for my market watch piece on Wednesday as the numbers move and we take a deeper dive into more games.
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (+7, 54.5)
I have been conducting the Russell Wilson and the Seahawks train since they showed their pass-heavy hand in Week 1 against the Falcons. A more analytically-savvy approach to calling offensive plays, with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, is going to lead to good results. The Seahawks are 3-0 now, and the media hype will likely be as high as ever after Wilson set an NFL record with 14 touchdown passes through three games to start the season.
Let's watch the hype play out in our favor. My raw projection in this matchup is Miami +6.4, and the Dolphins have a rest advantage in their back pockets after beating the Jaguars on Thursday. This number is pushing from Seattle -7 to -7.5 at other markets globally. This is an absolute buy on the Dolphins, whether it be +7 at plus-money or getting the full hook.
EARLY WEEK 4 LINES (as of 1 a.m. ET Monday, via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)
Thursday
Denver Broncos (-2.5, 40) at New York Jets
Sunday
Indianapolis Colts (-3, 44) at Chicago Bears
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 45)
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 56)
New Orleans Saints (-3.5, total not available yet) at Detroit Lions
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks (-7, 54.5) at Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 45)
Baltimore Ravens (-14, total not available yet) at Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 51.5) at Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-4, 51.5)
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-12, 48.5)
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, total not available yet)
Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 49.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 43)
Monday
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7, total not available yet)