Week 3 of the NFL season wraps up with a potential AFC Championship Game preview on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes leads his 2-0 Chiefs into Baltimore to face reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson and the 2-0 Ravens.
The Ravens fell to the Chiefs in Kansas City last season in Week 3, 33-28. Who has the edge this time around?
ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, fantasy expert Mike Clay and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 54.5)
Ravens -3.5
Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to lay points against Patrick Mahomes, but if I am going to do it, I want to roll with the Ravens. They've won 14 straight regular-season games, and there is some logic behind that. Their unique offense, with Lamar Jackson presenting a dual threat, forces opposing defenses to invest maximum preparation and effort. Truthfully, teams do not usually commit the max until the playoffs. On top of that, the Chiefs' defense is a significant issue. Kansas City caught a few breaks to win the Super Bowl, including New England losing as a double-digit favorite in Week 17 to give the Chiefs a playoff bye. Plus, the Chiefs never had to face the Ravens in the playoffs. I do think Baltimore is the better team, and will cautiously lay points against Mahomes.
Fortenbaugh: I'd be wary about laying points in this spot if it were the playoffs, given the recent track records of both John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. But considering it's only September, I'll be backing Baltimore. The Ravens have the personnel required to execute the blueprint in terms of limiting Mahomes: steady, consistent pressure with four or fewer pass-rushers, while dropping seven men into coverage to cut off any and all throwing lanes. Further, the Ravens have a first-class offense tailor-made to control tempo via a ground-and-pound attack that eats up both clock and yardage in bunches. Throw in the fact that Kansas City is on the second half of a back-to-back road trip, and Baltimore should assert itself as the class of the AFC.
Marks: So much could be riding on this game, like eventually the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Baltimore is the better team at the moment. The addition of Calais Campbell to the Ravens' defense will help slow down Mahomes, who had issues against the Chargers last week. On the flip side, the Chiefs' rushing defense has not been stellar, allowing both Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert to run for touchdowns. Just imagine what Lamar Jackson will do on Monday night.
Patrick Mahomes under 295.5 passing yards
Schatz: Yes, Mahomes had 374 passing yards when these two teams faced each other a year ago. But the Ravens are third in the league in passing DVOA through two weeks and lower opposing passing yards by 13%, which ranks third in the NFL.
Marquise Brown over 51.5 receiving yards
Clay: Brown is averaging 50.2 receiving yards in 17 career NFL games, so it's not too surprising to see a line of 51.5 receiving yards for the young receiver. Of course, that number includes a rookie season in which Brown played 60% of the offensive snaps (61% of pass plays), handled a 17% target share and saw 22% of the air yards. Through two games in 2020, Brown has played 63% of the snaps (72% of pass plays), while handling 25% of the targets and 39% of the air yards. The heavy usage led to 101 yards on six targets in Week 1, and 42 yards on six targets in Week 2. Lamar Jackson has needed to drop back to pass only 49 times during the first two games, with Baltimore comfortably ahead in both. That is unlikely to be the scenario this week against the high-scoring Chiefs, who have already allowed 564 passing yards this season. Brown's projection checks in at 64 yards.