Every Thursday during the college football season, Doug Kezirian (2-0 last week, 3-1 overall), Bill Connelly (1-2, 6-4), Preston Johnson (0-2, 1-5), Seth Walder (0-1, 3-2) and David M. Hale (1-2, 5-4) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 5 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday afternoon.
Virginia Cavaliers at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-28, 55)
Hale: Let's look at Clemson's first two games. In the opener, the Tigers left a ton of points on the field against Wake Forest, putting up 561 yards but just 37 points.
Pick: Over 55
Kezirian: Clemson is the nation's best team, and I'm unsure what to make of Virginia. The Tigers began the 2019 campaign with apathy, but I like what I am seeing so far this season. It's only two games, but Clemson has yet to allow a single point in the first half. Trevor Lawrence looks much sharper, and the team seems to realize a smaller margin for error exists in a shorter season.
Pick: Clemson -17 first half
South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 3 Florida Gators (-18, 57.5)
Johnson: Florida's 51 points were impressive, but allowing 35 points and 613 yards to Ole Miss is worrisome. The Gators gave up 13.4 yards per pass attempt. South Carolina and coach Will Muschamp will give the Gators a better fight defensively in this matchup, and with my projection coming in at Gamecocks +16, I'm happy to back a South Carolina team that hung with Tennessee in a 31-27 loss despite a pick-six and a minus-two turnover differential.
Pick: South Carolina +18
No. 7 Auburn Tigers at No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, 44.5)
Johnson: This is more of a sell on Auburn for me than it is a buy on UGA (although I like that former USC quarterback JT Daniels was cleared to play for the Bulldogs this Saturday). The Tigers benefited from a Kentucky fumble near its own red zone to set Auburn up for a touchdown, and a failed fake punt near its own red zone for another Auburn touchdown. My takeaway was that outside of those situations, Kentucky was the better team. Everyone remembers that Georgia was trailing in the middle of the third quarter to Arkansas as a four-touchdown favorite. I think this is a sneaky buy-low spot on the home favorite in an offense that showed it is going with more spread this year.
Pick: Georgia -6.5
Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to take the under in a 2020 football game, and it takes an even stronger one when the number is this low. However, Georgia owns one of the nation's best defenses and an offense that had difficulty against Arkansas. I anticipate a conservative game plan for the Bulldogs, given the shaky QB play in their opener. This has all the makings of a field position battle with field goals and conservative playcalling.
Pick: Under 44.5
No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (-14, 54.5) at Boston College Eagles
Kezirian: The Tar Heels started slow offensively in the opener, but then we started to see why fans had such optimism entering the season, and they also held Syracuse without a touchdown. On paper, Boston College had a convincing 26-6 road win over Duke, but watching the game and diving deeper into the box score tells a different story. The Blue Devils tallied nearly the same amount of yards, but five turnovers cost them the game. Give BC some credit for the turnovers, but let's also not assume the Eagles have a dominant defense. A truer version of BC showed in its next game, needing a fourth-quarter rally to barely beat a weak Texas State team at home. UNC should eventually pull away for a solid win.
Pick: UNC -14
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-18, 69)
Johnson: I loved the Bulldogs as much as anybody last week against LSU, and even despite the outright victory, I can't get my projection for this matchup higher than two touchdowns. I'm not even talking letdown spot; while we might see one here, the numbers and data I use for both schools shows 18 is too many points. For Arkansas, Florida transfer QB Feleipe Franks will feel some relief going up against the Mississippi State defense after facing UGA in the opener. He wasn't spectacular, but the Razorbacks hung around for the majority of that contest, and we should see improvement enough to keep this within 18 points against much weaker competition.
Pick: Arkansas +18
No. 17 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-21.5, 54) at Kansas Jayhawks
Connelly: Oddsmakers tend to catch up to teams' true quality levels after a few weeks, but I don't think they're quite there yet with Kansas. They were three touchdowns off in Week 2 when the Jayhawks were favored by six against Coastal Carolina and lost by 15. They were 16 points off in Week 3 when Baylor was strangely favored by only 17 and won by 33 despite a slow start. In both instances, my SP+ rankings were far closer to the final result -- while still underselling Kansas' awfulness a bit.
After picking Baylor in last week's best bets, then, we're letting it ride until the Jayhawks prove the lines have caught up to them. SP+ says this should be more of a 26-point OSU win, and that doesn't take into account the fact that Cowboys starting quarterback Spencer Sanders might be healthy enough to play for the first time since early in OSU's first game. The Cowboys haven't looked amazing so far, but you don't have to look amazing to beat Kansas by a decent amount.
Pick: Oklahoma State -21
No. 20 LSU Tigers (-20, 48.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
Hale: I have written some very dumb things in my career, but last week's explanation of my LSU pick might be the dumbest. "We'll look back at this line in two months and wonder why anyone thought this would be a remotely competitive game," I wrote. I should have to do a few hundred hours of community service to account for being that brutally wrong. Instead, I'll do what any good bettor does -- double down.
Vandy does not have Mike Leach calling plays or K.J. Costello throwing the ball. In fact, you'd have to add up the past five Vanderbilt games to get as many passing yards as Mississippi State had last Saturday. And while 20 is a big line, LSU has all the reasons in the world to run the score up in this one and shake off the last remnants of the championship hangover. And if I'm wrong, let us never speak of it again.
Pick: LSU -20
Kezirian: LSU is headed for a disappointing season, and we caught a glimpse in the opening loss to Mississippi State. But give Mike Leach, K.J. Costello and the Bulldogs some credit. They played extremely well, and that performance should not be an indictment of the Tigers. I fully expect LSU to respond favorably against a bad Vanderbilt team that had a regular season win total of one. The Tigers should be able to name the score.
Pick: LSU -20
No. 25 Memphis Tigers (-3, 74.5) at SMU Mustangs
Johnson: Memphis will not have played a game since its opener in early September when its faces off against SMU. The Tigers have had COVID-19 issues and were forced to cancel a few games that they would otherwise have played to this point. I would typically line the Mustangs 1.5-point underdogs, but the added advantage of having played more games and practicing under normal circumstances is a worthwhile bonus. SMU's offense has been hitting on all cylinders to the tune of 49 points per game. With an improved rushing attack (6.0 yards per carry) and Shane Buechele under center, I'm grabbing +3 against a Memphis team dealing with off-the-field variables under a first-year head coach.
Pick: SMU +3
Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (-6, 61.5)
Connelly: Last week's games left us with a couple of key questions about these two teams: 1. Is Ole Miss' defense really bad, or is Florida's offense just really good? 2. Is Kentucky's offense really bad, or is Auburn's defense just really good?
The answer is almost always "something in between," of course, but while SP+ mostly saw what it expected to from Ole Miss, it's probably worth noting that it dropped UK considerably (from 24th to 43rd) after the Auburn loss. The Wildcats were able to hang in third-and-manageable and move the chains at times, but they also went three-and-out on nearly half their possessions. Red zone turnovers made a big difference in the game, but SP+ seems to think UK was lucky to be close enough for those turnovers to matter.
We might soon find out that Auburn is just that good, but I'm a lot more uncertain about the Wildcats than I was a week ago; meanwhile, I'm all but certain that Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the conference. SP+ sees this as basically a toss-up (Kentucky by 1.7), and I think I agree.
Pick: Ole Miss +6.5
Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 54) at Duke Blue Devils
Connelly: This one is a pure connect-the-dots pick. 1. SP+ reacted very strongly to Virginia Tech's performance against NC State last week, bumping the Hokies from 34th to 17th despite the fact that it's designed not to overreact to a team's first game. 2. Duke has already lost to ACC teams ranked 33rd and 58th by an average score of 32-13. 3. SP+ doesn't even know that Tech was without a ton of players last week, including its starting QB, and still projects a 33-13 win, nearly double the -10.5 line.
Even if Tech isn't quite as good as SP+ suddenly thinks, and even though -10.5 is not a great line for picking the favorite, that's a huge difference. And since SP+ is 61% against the spread this year so far, I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt and ride this Hokie love.
Pick: Virginia Tech -10.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-7, 54) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Hale: One of the safer ways to approach betting college football is to understand the difference between a bad team and a horrendous one. There's usually at least one point spread that doesn't suitably match this distinction, and this week, it's the game between a below-average Hilltoppers team and a train wreck at MTSU.
WKU's losses came in a semi-competitive game against Louisville and in a six-point defeat to the uber-talented Malik Willis and Liberty. MTSU, meanwhile, was boat-raced by both Army and Troy before losing by two to UTSA (the fourth-worst team in the country by FPI). Western Kentucky is middling. MTSU is awful. That adds up to more than seven points in this one.
Pick: Western Kentucky -7
Baylor Bears (-3, 53.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers
Johnson: The 47-14 final score in Baylor's win over Kansas last week was misleading. The Bears outgained the Jayhawks by only 24 yards, but they benefited from two kick-return touchdowns and a safety in the game. West Virginia, on the other hand, lost to Oklahoma State by 14 but was better offensively. A long fumble return for a touchdown swung the game to the Cowboys' side. We're getting a merging sell-high spot on Baylor and a buy-low spot on WVU. I have this projected exactly PK, so I'm thrilled with +3 on the home team that kept it close last season in coach Neal Brown's first year against a Baylor squad that won 11 games and made a trip to the Sugar Bowl.
Pick: West Virginia +3
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats (-2.5, 64)
Johnson: As great of a story as KSU's outright win over Oklahoma after trailing by 21 in the third quarter was, it wasn't something that my game grades put much stock in. The Wildcats gave up 28 first downs to the Sooners and gained just 10 themselves. Big plays and a plus-four turnover differential kept them hanging around. They deserve credit for stealing it, but not to the tune of being a 2.5-point favorite to Texas Tech. It wasn't too long ago that KSU lost as a 15-point favorite at home to an Arkansas State team that was missing nine starters. Give me the team that just dropped 56 on the Longhorns in regulation and took them to overtime despite quarterback Alan Bowman throwing three interceptions.
Pick: Texas Tech +2.5
Navy Midshipmen (-6.5, 46.5) at Air Force Falcons
Johnson: At first glance, this number is curiously high. When we piece together that Air Force had 40 players opt out of football this season after the Mountain West Conference canceled it, it starts to make more sense. They wanted to swap eligibility for when football returns next year. Now with the MWC potentially making an earlier return, the football situation for the Academy is a mess. It was already losing most of its starters from last year's team, and QB Donald Hammond III left the team in July. As bad as Navy looked for six quarters this season, the Midshipmen looked just as good for their last two against Tulane. I'm willing to lay the 6.5 points against what looks to be a C-squad for Air Force.
Pick: Navy -6.5
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3.5, 64.5) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Johnson: Think back to geometry class for a minute. Remember the transitive property? If a = b and b = c, then a = c. So, if Arkansas State beat Kansas State and Kansas State beat No. 3 Oklahoma, then Arkansas State would ... stop! That's not how it works in college football, but we're getting some transitive-property market value here. This is another game that I project nearly PK, yet we are getting +3.5. It's worth mentioning the Red Wolves haven't actually played a game since the KSU upset. They've been dealing with COVID-19-related issues with players and coaches. CCU has graded impressively in its two wins to date, and freshman quarterback Grayson McCall (seven total touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 0 sacks and a 213.5 QBR) looks like the real deal.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +3.5