We hope our first-look piece for Week 2 paid dividends for everybody. I had referred to the 2011 lockout season, in which teams went without practices for more than five months during the offseason, and how overs hit at a 72% clip in Weeks 1 and 2 that season. We saw overs hit last Sunday at a similar rate. And heading into Saints-Raiders on Monday night, overs in Week 2 are 10-4-1. (Ravens-Texans closed at 48.5, 49 or 49.5 depending on the sportsbook, but I called it a push.)
I chose that particular angle because of all the speculation that offenses wouldn't be in sync early this season, and that points would be at a premium. When we're betting, we can't stop there. It's going to be really difficult to win long term by betting on assumptions. The argument that defenses would be rusty and suffer from communication issues certainly had merit as well.
Going into Week 3, I don't have anything specific I am looking to bet on, or avoid. Here are a few of the early lines that stood out:
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 45)
I'm surprised by the disrespect the Rams are getting in the market after two wins over expected playoff teams. The Bills have two wins as well, but I'm not getting too excited about victories over the Jets and Dolphins. I project this game as Rams +2.3, which makes the +3.5 significant considering the amount of value the key number of 3 provides.
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 46)
People gave the Eagles a pass after they blew a 17-0 lead to Washington in Week 1. But now that a healthy Philadelphia just got blasted at home by the Rams, everybody will be counting the Eagles out; this is when we buy. Folks, the Rams are good. I'm forgiving enough to give the Eagles another pass.
The Browns were laying -6 to the Bengals on Thursday. Cincinnati was short on preparation time and will have extra rest and prep time going into Week 3, but these point spreads imply that the Eagles and Browns are equals -- I disagree, and make this number -7. Despite the backdoor cover in Cleveland, the Bengals still averaged only 4.0 yards per play on 88 plays -- that's far from efficient. I'm not anointing them for that performance, but it seems the early market has.
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5, 51.5)
We took advantage of the injuries the Lions suffered in their secondary against the Bears by backing the Packers in Week 2, and there's no reason to think MVP candidate Kyler Murray and the Cardinals won't have the same kind of success here. On the flip side, Lions coach Matt Patricia said Sunday that wide receiver Kenny Golladay is close and could play in Week 3, which would boost a capable Detroit offense. And while the Cardinals' defense appears improved, I'm not making significant adjustments yet after they benefited from the 49ers' injuries and San Francisco's 2-for-13 performance on third and fourth downs in Week 1 (and playing against Washington in Week 2).
If Detroit fields the same defense it did in Green Bay against Arizona, then I project this total at 53.5. I can look only to the over in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 52)
This total for next Monday night's game is too low -- I would anticipate it moving up to 54 or 54.5. The Kansas City defense just let rookie quarterback Justin Herbert (311 yards passing) and the Chargers' run game (183 yards rushing) exploit them repeatedly. On the other side, quarterback Lamar Jackson is taking the Ravens to another level.
It took some time on Sunday, but Patrick Mahomes eventually figured out what the Chargers were throwing at him and led the Chiefs on a miraculous comeback. I expect a bounce-back performance overall in a matchup that totaled 61 points last season. I can see this total only going up, so I'd grab the over now, or wait until Monday night before kickoff if you prefer to bet the under.
EARLY WEEK 3 LINES (as of Monday at 1 a.m. ET, via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill)
Thursday
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 45)
Sunday
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47)
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46.5)
Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 44.5)
Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 45.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (not available yet)
San Francisco 49ers (-4, 42) at New York Giants
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 46)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 45)
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5, 44)
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers (not available yet)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6, 43.5) at Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 53)
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (not available yet)
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-4, total not available yet)
Monday
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 52)