Best bets for Monday Night Football: Saints at Raiders

Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season will wrap up with the debut of the Raiders' new home, as they host the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, Seth Walder of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders have teamed up to offer their best bets.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 48.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Saints -5.5

Marks: Would it be a sin to lay the 5.5 without wide receiver Michael Thomas active for the Saints on Monday night? I say no. The Saints have a plethora of offensive firepower with Alvin Kamara being utilized in the passing game and Jared Cook in the red zone, in addition to the creativity Taysom Hill offers in Sean Payton's playcalling. This matchup will come down to defense, and the Saints looked good last week against a loaded Buccaneers offense. The Raiders' defense is promising, but it's young and still developing. The Saints' offense without Thomas will still be too much to handle in Sin City. The best offensive weapon on the Raiders' roster is running back Josh Jacobs, and the Saints' defense hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher since November 2017.

Raiders + 6 (at time of bet)

Walder: It flew under the radar, but the Raiders (1-0) actually had the fifth-most-efficient offense last season -- just one spot below the Saints. They're off to a nice start this season, too -- albeit in a win over the lowly Panthers -- and going forward, ESPN's Football Power Index has Las Vegas as the seventh-best offensive unit. It's not New Orleans level, but it's something for defenses to tangle with. The Raiders will be at a larger disadvantage on defense Monday, according to the FPI, but all in all, it makes the Saints 5.3 points better than Las Vegas. That's 5.3 points on a neutral field, with no knowledge of the Michael Thomas injury. Add in the Allegiant Stadium debut and the absence of the Saints' superstar receiver, and you can see why I like the Raiders plus the points.

Alvin Kamara over 0.5 rushing TDs (+190)

Schatz: This bet is all about the odds. Kamara has scored 28 rushing touchdowns in 46 career games, or just over 0.5 touchdowns per game. Football Outsiders has him projected for 0.52 rushing touchdowns against Las Vegas, which overall has a below-average defense (22nd in Football Outsiders' DAVE ratings). The over/under of 0.5 is basically a 50/50 proposition. Except you aren't getting 50/50 odds; you're getting nearly 2-1 odds at +190. Play the odds and there's value here.

Drew Brees under 264.5 passing yards (-110)

Fortenbaugh: Michael Thomas is out, which means 35% of New Orleans's receptions and 38% of the team's receiving yards from last season won't be on the field. That's a significant blow to an aging quarterback in Brees, who already isn't being asked to do as much as he's done in the past. Brees threw for just 160 yards in last Sunday's win over Tampa Bay -- a game in which New Orleans led for the majority of the afternoon. That could be the same game script we see in Week 2, for a signal-caller who doesn't take nearly as many deep shots down the field now. Case in point: Brees averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt in Week 1. For context, Mitchell Trubisky averaged 6.1 YPA last season and ranked dead-last among starting quarterbacks.