The 2019 NFL regular season is winding down, and we're here with a betting preview for Monday night's game on ESPN between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings.
Both teams are playoff bound, but the NFC North is still up for grabs, with the Packers on top at 11-3 and the Vikings right behind their rivals at 10-4.
Fantasy's Mike Clay offers his best bets for the Week 16 finale.
Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday evening, unless otherwise noted.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5, 45)
Aaron Rodgers over 249.5 pass yards (-110)
Clay: Rodgers has reached 250 passing yards in only four games this season, but a major reason for that has been game script, as the Packers are operating a pass-heavy offense but have also been ahead on the scoreboard on 54% of their offensive snaps (fourth highest in the league). Green Bay has called pass 59% of the time during its 11 wins but 74% of the time during its three losses. The Vikings, meanwhile, have faced the fifth-most pass attempts and have allowed the fourth-most completions this season. They also rank in the upper half of the league in passing yards and completion percentage (65%) allowed. The Packers are 4.5-point underdogs at Minnesota this week, so we should anticipate more throwing than usual from Rodgers. He projects for 276 yards.
Davante Adams over 75.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay: Adams has reached 76 yards in only four of his 10 games this season, but one of those came last week when he posted a 7-103-1 receiving line on 13 targets against Chicago, and another was back in Week 2 against the Vikings when he managed a 7-106-0 line on nine targets. Minnesota has struggled badly against wide receivers and specifically perimeter receivers this season, which is where Adams aligns 74% of the time. Of the 13 wide receivers who have reached 76 yards against Minnesota this season, 10 have aligned primarily on the perimeter. Minnesota has faced the 10th-most wide receiver targets but has allowed the fourth-most receptions, 10th-most receiving yards and a 68% catch rate. Adams is enjoying a career-high 30.1% target share (9.9 targets per game) and has been targeted at least nine times in eight games. His projection comes in at 85 yards.