We've heard it so many times in our lives that we probably don't even hear it when we hear it anymore: "You can throw out the records when [insert any two rivals] get together."
Remember the Kick Six? Or those times Oklahoma State upset Oklahoma out of nowhere? Remember last season, when Minnesota was a nearly two-touchdown underdog against Wisconsin but won by three TDs? Remember those years when contender-level Oregon teams struggled to put away Oregon State? Expect the unexpected in Rivalry Week!
That all makes for good promo material, but generally, we can expect ... the expected.
In the years sandwiching the Kick Six, after all, Alabama beat Auburn by a combined 104-44. Despite the shock of upsets including the ones in 2001 and 2014, Oklahoma leads the Bedlam series with a record of 88-18-7. As jarring as Minnesota's win over Wisconsin was last year, the Paul Bunyan Trophy has resided in Madison for 21 of the past 24 years. And while the Civil War was a back-and-forth rivalry in the 2000s, Oregon has won 10 of the past 11 meetings by an average score of 50-26.
College football's richness, the sheer volume of noteworthy games, assures us some wacky results and wild rides. But does Rivalry Week give us anything wilder than the typical college football weekend? Or do we just think it does because of the importance of the games involved?
To answer those questions, I looked at the past 40 years of betting lines for 20 noteworthy rivalries being revisited this week -- 746 total games -- and compared the results to the past 40 years of lines overall.
What did I find out?
As it turns out, the existence of a hardcore rivalry might be worth an extra point or two to the underdog -- but not much more.
To compare this batch of capital-R rivalries to the normal college football experience, I separated games based on the closing lines. Let's look at each category separately.
Spread is 1-2.5 points
For all college football games from the past 40 years: Favorites win about 54% of the games in this range, with an ATS record of 50% and an average scoring margin of +1.
For the sample of rivalries (there were 107 games in this sample): Favorites win straight up 47% of the time and go 42% ATS with an average scoring margin of -1.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range (early market in parentheses): Ole Miss at Mississippi State (-2.5), Virginia Tech (-2) at Virginia, Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota
Conclusion: This was perhaps the most jarring set of comp data. In 107 rivalry games, teams that are tiny favorites are 50-56-1 overall and 45-62 ATS. The most common rivalries in this range were Arizona-Arizona State, Florida-Florida State and Ole Miss-Mississippi State, and sure enough, the Egg Bowl is once again in this range.
Spread is 3-6.5 points
All college football games: Favorites win 62% of the time straight up and 49% ATS. Average scoring margin: +5.
Rivalry Week sample (214 games): Favorites win 66% of the time straight up and 51% ATS. Average scoring margin: +5.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range: Iowa (-4.5) at Nebraska, Washington State at Washington (-6.5), Indiana (-6.5) at Purdue, Iowa State (-3) at Kansas State, Alabama (-4) at Auburn
Conclusion: For this range, there really isn't much, if any, difference between rivalry performance and regular performance.
Spread is 7-9.5 points
All college football games: Favorites win 72% of the time straight up and go 49% ATS. Average scoring margin: +8.
Rivalry week sample (115 games): Favorites win 72% of the time straight up and go 47% ATS. Average scoring margin: +8.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range: Texas Tech at Texas (-9), UNLV at Nevada (-7.5), North Carolina (-8) at NC State, Ohio State (-9) at Michigan
Conclusion: Again, nothing interesting in this range.
Spread is 10-13.5 points
All college football games: Favorites win 79% of the time and go 46% ATS. Average scoring margin: +12
Rivalry week sample (102 games): Favorites win 78% of the time and go 36% (37-65) ATS. Average scoring margin: +10.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range: Missouri (-11.5) at Arkansas, Appalachian State (-12) at Troy, Northwestern at Illinois (-10.5), Oklahoma (-12) at Oklahoma State, Arizona at Arizona State (-12.5)
Conclusion: This batch is particularly weird. Home teams in this rivalry sample are 20-44 ATS (31%) with a straight-up win percentage of 67%. The sample here isn't enormous, so maybe this is an oddity, but it's an impressive oddity.
Spread is 14-16.5 points
All college football games: Favorites win 86% of the time and go 51% ATS. Average scoring margin: +16.
Rivalry week sample (75 games): Favorites win 86% of the time and go 53% ATS. Average scoring margin: +16.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range: Notre Dame (-14) at Stanford, Texas A&M at LSU (-16)
Conclusion: Nothing to see here, apparently.
Spread is 17-20.5 points
All college football games: Favorites win 91% of the time and go 50% ATS. Average scoring margin: +20.
Rivalry week sample (55 games): Favorites win 89% of the time and go 54% ATS. Average scoring margin: +19.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range: Oregon State at Oregon (-18.5)
Conclusion: Moving right along ...
Spread is 21-27.5 points
All college football games: Favorites win 95% of the time and go 53% ATS. Average scoring margin: +24.
Rivalry week sample (39 games): Favorites win 92% of the time and go 46% ATS. Average scoring margin: +22.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range: Ohio (-27) at Akron, Clemson (-25) at South Carolina
Conclusion: The favorites' edges start to soften a bit here because of either sample sizes, short-term bursts from the underdog rivals or unexpected garbage-time leniency from the favorites.
Spread is 28-plus points
All college football games: Favorites win 98% of the time and go 48% ATS. Average scoring margin: +35.
Rivalry week sample (just 20 games): Favorites are 20-0 and 9-9-2 ATS. Average scoring margin: +28.
Noteworthy 2019 games in this range: Georgia (-28) at Georgia Tech
Conclusion: Again, the winning margins aren't nearly as high as normal, but the team expected to dominate wins handily. The closest we've come to an upset in this sample: Illinois' 28-23 win over Northwestern as a 30.5-point favorite in 1990, Tennessee's 12-7 win over Vanderbilt as a 37.5-point favorite in 1995 and Tennessee's 17-10 win over Vanderbilt as a 28-point favorite in 1997. Peyton Manning was strangely lackluster against the Commodores, apparently.
Overall gambling relevance: What has this exercise taught us? Rivalry games don't lend too much difference with the spread when compared to the rest of college football games. If there's anything significant here, it's that toss-up games are even more toss-up-worthy, with a slight edge to the underdog, when rivalries are at play, and that heavy favorites are less likely to win by enormous margins. You could convince me that rivalries are worth an extra point or two to the underdog on average, but we would need a couple more decades' worth of data to know for sure.