College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
In Week 14, we continue the discussion of the November phenomenon of "scoreboard watching" as it relates to the unresolved conference title races and preview both Thanksgiving night's Egg Bowl and a Saturday Lone Star showdown with circumstances that favor the home team.
All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.
Openers
First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-9.5, 54) at Michigan Wolverines
Noon ET, Saturday (FOX)
Rich Rodriguez went 0-3 straight up and ATS versus Ohio State as Michigan head coach, disappointing Wolverines backers while taking 20.5, 10 and 17 points from the Buckeyes. Apart from RichRod's tenure, however, teams getting a touchdown or more in this series have covered nine of the past 10 meetings.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Eastern Michigan Eagles (-5.5, 65)
Noon ET, Saturday (ESPN+)
This number moved quickly from Circa's opener of EMU -3. The Flashes are playing for bowl eligibility, while 6-5 Eastern Michigan is probably playing for its postseason life as well, given that there are shaping up to be more bowl-eligible teams than spots and 6-6 MAC teams are among the first ones left off the invitation list. Kent State has covered four straight in the series, and EMU hasn't managed 400 yards against a Kent State team since 1998.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers (-9, 56)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
Another big early line move saw this one fall from Memphis -12 at opening. These teams haven't played since 2016. Point-total players should know that there haven't been fewer than 58 points scored in a Memphis game since a Week 3 blowout of offensively inept South Alabama.
Indiana Hoosiers (-7.5, 56.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
Noon ET, Saturday (ESPN2)
Each of the past two seasons have ended with 5-6 Purdue beating 5-6 Indiana in the Old Oaken Bucket Game to clinch a bowl berth for the Boilermakers and send the Hoosiers home. This year Indiana is bowling for sure with a 7-4 record, while the Boilers are already out of the postseason at 4-7. That hasn't stopped early bettors from pouring it in on the Hoosiers, who moved from a five-point choice all the way past the key number of seven in less than an hour Sunday afternoon.
Championship races and scoreboard watching
Last week we introduced the phenomenon of scoreboard watching, where teams that need "help" in their conference races are nearly as attuned to the results of other games as they are their own. There are a few opportunities to apply this concept in the final week of the regular season.
Four league title game matchups are already set:
SEC: LSU versus Georgia
Big XII: Oklahoma versus Baylor
MWC: Boise State versus Hawaii
SBC: Appalachian State versus Louisiana
Three more are almost set, with one division winner awaiting the outcome of a single game to determine the other:
ACC: Clemson versus the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner
Big Ten: Ohio State versus the Wisconsin-Minnesota winner
Pac 12: Oregon versus either Utah (if Utah beats Colorado) or USC (if Colorado beats Utah)
The last three are more complicated, with teams playing this week needing help from other teams. Here are the opening lines, kickoff times and scenarios for the relevant games:
AAC: Memphis (-10) vs. Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m. ET Friday; Navy (-7.5) at Houston, 7 p.m. ET Saturday
Cincinnati has clinched the East and plays at Memphis (-9) this week. With a win, Memphis would clinch the West and an immediate rematch with Cincinnati in the title game. If Cincinnati wins, the Bearcats would play Navy for the championship next week, provided Navy beats Houston. If Cincinnati beats Memphis and Houston beats Navy, Memphis wins the West. But Cincinnati and Memphis play Friday, while Navy doesn't visit Houston until Saturday. That means that Navy will be a very interested spectator for Friday's game and that the Midshipmen's game at Houston may or may not be a championship-stakes affair.
If the Mids get the help they need in the form of a Bearcats victory Friday, you'll want to more strongly consider backing Navy on Saturday in what would then be a de facto championship semifinal, and perish any thought of backing Houston. If Memphis wins, understand that the Midshipmen will be naturally disappointed and might not have quite as much juice for Saturday night's matchup.
MAC: Western Michigan (-7.5) at Northern Illinois, 7 p.m. ET Tuesday; Toledo at Central Michigan (-10), noon ET Friday
Miami has won the East and awaits either Western Michigan, who would clinch the West with a win at Northern Illinois on Tuesday, or Central Michigan, who, with a WMU loss Tuesday, would then be in position to clinch the West by beating Toledo on Friday. Naturally the Chippewas will be rooting for NIU on Tuesday. If the Huskies win, the Chips are suddenly playing a championship play-in game Friday, whereas if WMU wins and clinches Tuesday, Central will naturally be disappointed.
Note that this scenario is similar yet very different from the one playing out in the AAC. In that league, Navy is scoreboard-watching a Friday game ahead of its own game on Saturday. That means that by the time the Mids are spectators, they'll have completed the week or practice and preparation for Houston.
Central Michigan, on the other hand, will know its fate Tuesday night. If the WMU-NIU result knocks the Chips out of the race, Jim McIlwain's team must then swallow its disappointment not just in time to play the game, but in time to prepare, which is much more difficult. A Western win on Tuesday could create a very downbeat mood around the CMU facility all week as the Chips try to prepare for Toledo. You should be ready to pounce on Toledo if that scenario unfolds and should expect the current price of CMU -10 to drop the instant the Broncos wrap up the Huskies on Tuesday night.
CUSA: FIU at Marshall (-9), noon ET Saturday; Southern Miss at Florida Atlantic (-9), 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday; UTSA Louisiana Tech (-19), 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday; UAB (-1) at North Texas, 4 p.m. ET Saturday
Both divisions are still up for grabs. In the East, Marshall needs a win to stay alive, but control of the division is in the hands of Florida Atlantic, which can clinch by beating Southern Miss at home. If Marshall loses to FIU earlier in the day, FAU would clinch regardless of its own result. That means that news of an FIU win (and an FAU championship game berth) would reach FAU's stadium around the time the Owls are kicking off. This could cause 9-point chalk FAU to relax a bit and maybe indulge in some internal celebrating of the news, which would be good omens for a visiting Southern Miss team that needs a win to stay alive in the West.
The West is currently a three-way tie between Southern Miss, UAB and Louisiana Tech, none of which control its own destiny, all of which kick off separate games within 30 minutes of each other Saturday afternoon, and each of which is 1-1 versus the other two this season. Two of those teams losing would hand the title to the third, while one of them losing would mean that the Saturday afternoon winner who owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the other winner would take the division. If all three win or all three lose, Southern Miss would take the West on the basis of the sixth tiebreaker in the league's tiebreaking procedure.
The opportunities to capitalize on scoreboard watching are not as strong here as they are in the AAC or MAC, where the relevant games are played on different days, but still, be aware of which results would help or hurt each team, especially if you're dialed into halftime or live betting for these games.
A Louisiana Tech loss to UTSA puts Southern Miss in control of its destiny. A Southern Miss loss at FAU puts UAB in control. And a UAB loss at North Texas does the same for Louisiana Tech. Also know that UAB's game starts at 4 p.m. ET and the other two a half hour earlier, and that UAB is in the best shape because the two results the Blazers need are actually favored, with FAU -9 over USM and UAB -1 at North Texas. News of an FAU win (or big lead) could reach UAB in time to galvanize the Blazers as they try to close out North Texas, while news of a USM win, which would eliminate UAB, could deflate the Blazers late.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying or selling and why.
Buy: Ole Miss Rebels
Mississippi State has the home field, the better record by a game and the incentive of playing for a bowl berth and chance at a winning season. Ole Miss has essentially the same résumé (wins over all FCS and Group of Five teams plus Arkansas and a win over Vandy compared with State's win over Kentucky). Ole Miss also has more competitive losses, to each of LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn.
The 4-7 Rebels are off an open date and have momentum on their side, even more so than a State team still in the bowl hunt. While State fans largely see the season through the lens of disappointment in the coaching staff, Ole Miss fans are excited about what the Rebels' two new coordinators have brought. State figures to lose its starting quarterback and running back after the season, while Ole Miss freshmen John Rhys Plumlee and Jerrion Ealy are just getting started.
The Rebels have rushed for more than 400 yards three times in the seven games since Plumlee first took the field at quarterback, along with 279 versus Alabama, 250 versus A&M and 204 versus Missouri. State's defense has been gashed on the ground by quarterbacks and running backs alike. Both A&M's Kellen Mond and Auburn's Bo Nix hurt the Bulldogs on the ground, and State hasn't seen a real run-first quarterback like Plumlee.
The Ole Miss defense has been pretty solid against the run; it's been a ghastly pass defense that's gotten the Rebels in trouble. State, though, can't boast the quarterbacks and receivers that Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M or even Missouri used to light up the Rebels. It's not hard to see the visitor keeping Kylin Hill under wraps, while it's very difficult to see the Bulldogs suddenly becoming the first team with the answer to Plumlee and Ealy, who should already be drawing comparisons to the dynamic duo coordinator Rich Rodriguez coached long ago at West Virginia: Pat White and Steve Slaton.
Plan of action: With just this game left in the Rebels' season, this is obviously a one-game buy, but provided the school retains Rodriguez, expect the Plumlee/Ely duo and the Ole Miss offense to get a lot of well-deserved hype this offseason. They'll certainly be a hot topic among opposing coordinators, as so far none has found the answer to this revamped Rebels attack.
Buy: Texas Longhorns
As we've written many times in this space, more accomplished coaches than Tom Herman have tried and failed to win championships with Tim Beck at offensive coordinator, and we won't get excited about the Longhorns' potential as an elite team until the offensive brain trust is overhauled. The shortcomings of that unit were on full display in a loss at Baylor, and right now Texas is embarrassed and angry about that performance.
That's bad news for 9.5-point underdog Texas Tech, as the Horns will likely be in redemption mode in front of their fans. Tech, meanwhile, just suffered the seventh loss that keeps the team home for the holidays. It's fair to question how much the visitor has left in the tank, traveling on a short week after spirited comebacks fell short in two straight home losses by a field goal or less.
Plan of action: Herman is taking plenty of heat right now, but this team has solid intangibles and not much is going wrong in this program besides the glaring lack of offensive identity. Embarrassed and mad is a good way to be heading into a football game, and Herman will get his bunch rallied up for this one and probably coax a third straight good bowl showing out of them as well.