Are the 2019 Buckeyes as good as the 2001 Canes? Maybe ...

Over the past 40 years, a team has been favored by at least two touchdowns over a top-10 team in November just nine times. If the early market is any indication, Ohio State-Penn State will end up No. 10.

The Ohio State Buckeyes opened as an 18- to 18.5-point favorite over the ninth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions, and the number has yet to move all that much. The Buckeyes have yet to win a game by fewer than 24 points this year, and early indications are that bettors and bookmakers don't see an upgrade in competition making that much of a difference.

Penn State is a rock-solid team. James Franklin's Nittany Lions have given up a few too many big pass plays over the past couple of weeks -- something that cost them dearly in a Week 11 loss to Minnesota and nearly did against last week against Indiana -- but top to bottom, they're still excellent. They're seventh overall in SP+, and they're the only team to rank in the top 15 in the offensive, defensive and special teams SP+ ratings. They are balanced, athletic and dangerous.

This line, however, is far more about Ohio State than Penn State.

Ryan Day's Buckeyes have been historically dominant so far

Ohio State's current SP+ rating is plus-37.2, meaning the Buckeyes are 37.2 points better than the average FBS team at the moment. They are 4.2 points ahead of even the No. 2 team; this 37.2 rating grades out in the 99.5 percentile.

The 99.5 percentile is "elitist of the elite" territory. The 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers were at 99.5, the 1993 FSU Seminoles and 2001 Miami Hurricanes were 99.4. The Buckeyes are fourth in offensive SP+, and the defense, so justifiably maligned last season, ranks first.

Ohio State's success thus far has been due to the perfect marriage of talent and scheme. The Buckeyes' run game is built around your standard read-option structure, and it works because the offensive line is excellent, the running backs are J.K. Dobbins and Master Teague III (combined: 297 rushes, 2,033 yards, 17 touchdowns), and the quarterback is Justin Fields (six to seven non-sack carries per game, 7.4 yards per carry). The passing game, meanwhile, is built around a ton of interchangeable parts (five wideouts have between 15 and 37 catches) all capable of running crisp hitches or explosive go routes. They have strength across the board, they locate where you don't and they ruthlessly exploit the mismatch.

Defensively, Ohio State is built to stop the things the generic college football offense of 2019 is built to execute: inside-zone rushing, RPOs and quick-hitting slants and crossing routes, etc. They are first in rushing success rate allowed and second in passing success rate allowed.

Actually, let's just back up and list Ohio State's weaknesses. It'll be quicker than listing the strengths.

1. Fields takes too many sacks.

2. ... The kick-return game is only average?

That's really about it. This team is damn near bulletproof, and its schedule has been harder than you might think. While Penn State is Ohio State's first opponent ranked in the SP+ top 10, the Buckeyes have already dispatched of many other teams that could give an elite squad a challenge on the right day: No. 15 Wisconsin (38-7), No. 20 Indiana (51-10), No. 29 Cincinnati (42-0), No. 40 Michigan State (34-10). Their SP+ strength of schedule ranking (which I defined in more detail earlier this week) is currently 59th -- not as high as LSU's (15th), Georgia's (24th) or Alabama's (39th) but ahead of Oklahoma's (70th) or Clemson's (93rd).

It bears noting, of course, that excellence through mid-November is not the same as excellence through early January. As good as Ohio State has been, it has to continue being this good. The 2018 Alabama Crimson Tide were another 99.5er, after all, and their final act was, shall we say, disappointing.

Being heavily favored against a top-10 team is rare (and usually justified)

I could only find seven instances of a team being favored by 18 or more points against a top-10 team:

• Oct. 21, 1995: No. 8 Kansas State at No. 2 Nebraska (-23.5)

• Nov. 11, 1995: No. 1 Nebraska (-25) at No. 10 Kansas

• Nov. 29, 1996: No. 5 Colorado at No. 4 Nebraska (-18)

• Sept. 11, 1999: No. 10 Georgia Tech (-18) at No. 1 Florida State

• Nov. 4, 2000: No. 10 Clemson at No. 4 Florida State (-19.5)

• Nov. 2, 2013: No. 7 Miami at No. 3 Florida State (-21.5)

• Oct. 22, 2016: No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama (-18)

If the line is that big, there's probably a reason. All seven of heavy favorites above won, and five covered; only 1999 FSU (beat GT 41-35) and 1996 Nebraska (beat CU 17-12) were threatened.

Even if we lower the bar to teams favored by 14 or more against top-10 teams, the same general trends apply: The heavy favorites went 16-12 against the spread and 24-4 straight up. The only losses: Florida (-17) to Auburn in 1994, Kansas State (-17.5) to Texas A&M in 1998, Florida (-17.5) to Tennessee in 2001 and Ohio State (-14) to Michigan State in 2015. All four games are classic moments for the victorious fan bases -- and, in at least a couple of instances, classics for the vanquished, too -- in part because of how unlikely the wins were.

This is a test the 99th-percentilers usually pass

To help establish what to expect, I wanted a healthier sample size than seven games played in a 24-year span. So let's revisit the 99th-percentile concept to add a few more examples to the pile.