College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
In Week 13, we dissect yet another historically massive spread, issue our annual reminder about the November phenomenon of "scoreboard watching" and rally around an elite coach and top program having a down season.
All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.
Openers
First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-19, 59.5)
Noon ET Saturday (FOX)
Since James Franklin arrived in Happy Valley, the Lions have covered four of five against the Buckeyes, and all four have been instant classics. There was an overtime loss to the eventual national champion in Franklin's first season in 2014 and an upset win two years later as 18-point underdogs against the unbeaten and second-ranked Buckeyes. That was followed by two one-point losses, both of which involved Ohio State rallying from double-digit fourth-quarter deficits. This is a big number against that backdrop.
BYU Cougars (-42, 68.5) at UMass Minutemen
Noon ET Saturday
UMass dropped a 45-6 decision to Northwestern, coming in just under the 40-point number, and next the Minutemen are ready to help another school make point-spread history. Unlike the Wildcats, BYU has laid six touchdowns before, but this is the first time the Cougars will offer that sort of price to an FBS team and their first time doing so on the road. It's hard to believe that UMass won this matchup as a 3.5-point 'dog just two years ago. BYU got its revenge last season with a 35-16 win, a game in Amherst that saw the Minutemen jump to a 10-0 lead before the Cougars rattled off five straight touchdowns.
BYU is familiar with the long road trip and venue, and the Cougars are fresh off a victory that allowed them to be the first team to accept a bowl invitation (2019 SoFi Hawaii Bowl). It isn't hard to see the Cougars over-celebrating their upcoming Hawaiian Christmas, especially because the victory over Idaho State came with the athletic director in the locker room wearing a popular T-shirt designed to support head coach Kalani Sitake, who is now certain to receive the extension for which his supporters have been clamoring. That's especially true after a 2-4 start because now there's a bit of "we did it!" finality around the season (always beware the fait accompli attitude) and a bigger game against San Diego State on deck.
It's also worth noting the misleading final scores from Saturday. BYU was sloppy despite basically dominating in a 42-10 win over Idaho State, and UMass was outgained at Northwestern by only 100 yards. Home field is worth more with travel to the other side of the country, even with BYU's familiarity, and it isn't hard to see UMass feeling disrespected by the six-touchdown spread in what has been a competitive matchup the past two years. You don't have to back the only team in America bad enough to fail to beat Akron by double digits, just like you didn't have to back the Minutemen or Rutgers last week, but you cannot rationally lay this historic weight.
Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers (-46, 59)
7 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
Befitting a historically awesome offense is the laying of historically large prices. LSU has never offered another Power 5 school more than 40 points, let alone an SEC foe. The Tigers might not cover, but it's probably safe to say they'll do better than last season's 359 yards and 24 points.
Miami Hurricanes (-18.5, 49) at Florida International Panthers
7 p.m. ET Saturday (CBSSN)
Butch Davis has been a thorn in the side of his former school (and its backers). Davis faced Miami four times as head coach of North Carolina, winning three, all as underdogs. Last season, in his first meeting with the Canes as FIU boss, Davis ran his ATS record against his old school to 4-1 with a 31-17 loss as 26.5-point underdogs.
Championship races and scoreboard watching
You want to have a clear understanding of all the conference championship scenarios and upcoming schedules, as November provides opportunities for teams to participate in the annual distraction known as scoreboard watching.
That's the term handicappers use to describe the phenomenon whereby teams that need "help" in their conference races are nearly as attuned to the results of other games as they are to their own. Fans have that luxury, but for players, it's an unwelcome distraction that can take their focus away from the task at hand.
Often the timing is the critical element, so be aware when players are likely to see the results of their rooting interests. Most FBS stadiums have some form of score reporting now, and sometimes news from elsewhere breaking at halftime can have a dramatic effect on the rest of a game. Sometimes the timing renders scoreboard watching impossible. USC, for example, needs a Utah loss to regain control of the Pac-12 South, but the Trojans play UCLA on Saturday afternoon, and the Utes' road game at Colorado isn't until later that night, so there is no game-day distraction in play for USC.
Georgia Southern needs Appalachian State to lose to pass the Mountaineers atop the Sun Belt East. App State kicks off a home game with Texas State a half-hour earlier than Georgia Southern at Arkansas State, and though a Texas State upset seems unlikely, score announcements of a tight game in Boone could ignite Georgia Southern in its game
There will probably be more scenarios next week, but for this week, the heaviest scoreboard-watching activity is in Conference USA. Southern Miss needs Louisiana Tech to lose, and both teams play at 3:30 p.m. ET this week. Florida Atlantic needs Marshall to lose, but while the Herd visit Charlotte for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff, the Owls don't play at UTSA until 6 p.m. ET that evening. If the 49ers manage to knock off Marshall, you can bet the FAU players will know it by halftime, and that would have a positive effect on their second-half performance in the Alamodome.
We write about this concept every November because it's such a valuable one. It is magnified in the season's final week when it's the trailing teams' last chance to get the "help" they need, so check back next Monday for the full breakdown of conference races yet to be decided -- and where certain teams' attentions might lie.
Portfolio checkup
Which teams we're buying or selling and why.
Buy: Washington Huskies
A down year has last season's top program in the Pac-12 fielding maybe the third-best team in the league this season, but this bunch is too well-coached to not rally down the stretch after a late-season open date. Program momentum is still high, as evidenced by the top-ranked incoming recruiting class in the league. A 6-4 ATS record shows that adjustments have been made for the uncharacteristically poor season, and the 300-yard margin versus Oregon State the latest time out shows that this team is still capable of dominating weaker foes.
Plan of action: Weaker foes are all that's left, with Colorado, Washington State and a lesser bowl game on the horizon. The Huskies have owned Colorado since the latter joined the league, winning all seven meetings and covering six, with this week's price of 14.5 points right in line with the 15.3-point average weight the Buffs have taken from Washington in that span. Chris Petersen is one of the nation's top coaches following a bye week, and after Colorado comes the Apple Cup, in which Petersen is 5-0 straight up and ATS, having crushed Mike Leach and the rival Cougars by an average of more than 24 points per game. Then there's the bowl game, an affair the Huskies will be hungry to win after three straight postseason losses in competitive games against favored top-10 teams Alabama, Penn State and Ohio State. We'll probably back this team the rest of the way.
Sell: Houston Cougars
A late-season open date yielded a solid first half for Houston at home versus Memphis, but the Tigers pulled away, putting the game -- and a winning season -- out of reach for the Cougars. A road trip to AAC outpost Tulsa and Dana Holgorsen's staff's first look at Navy's option do not make for an ideal closing sequence unless you're fading this team. It will be tough for Holgorsen and his staff to get this team to prepare hard for the final two games, considering that the season was unofficially over after four games and the final nail has just been delivered in the form of a seventh loss.
Plan of action: It's disappointing to see Tulsa giving more than a field goal already, but there's probably still value in backing an outfit that has run for a total of 387 yards on Houston the past two years. This week's road trip and the home date with the Midshipmen will be challenging for the Cougars in different ways, and after three straight losses to some of the AAC's best teams secured a losing season, it's time to fire away.
Around the slate
Akron stands alone. After Rice and New Mexico State won this weekend, the Zips are not only the only team winless at the betting window; they're also the only team winless on the field. If you're a glutton for this sort of thing, this week might be your week to move in. The Zips haven't cracked 300 yards against Miami-Ohio in any of the past three meetings, and the nation's worst scoring offense figures to have a tough time versus a Redhawks defense that has allowed more than 24 points just once in MAC play. Still, last season marked the first time in seven meetings that Miami has beaten Akron by more than a touchdown, and this season, the Zips catch Miami fresh off clinching the MAC East.
Vanderbilt and Nebraska are the only schools with just one cover this season. One coach is probably about to be fired, and the other just received an extension. No team has fewer than two ATS losses, with two-loss Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Louisiana the season's best bets so far.
"Over" king SMU was off last week and remains 9-1 to the over, while "under" darling San Diego State delivered another masterpiece with a 17-7 win over Fresno to move to 9-1 to the under on the season.