Week 8 in the NFL was a moneyline parlay guy's dream. The Chargers were the one true underdog that won outright (the Eagles were technically underdogs most of the week too, but that game ended up closing as a pick 'em at a few spots before kickoff). If you were parlaying any of the other favorites on the moneyline, you scooped. Underdogs still went 8-7 ATS, so I wouldn't assume there will be an overreaction either way in Week 9.
I have a team I'm buying on in terms of a make-the-playoff prop, and I'll go over the early line moves that I agree and disagree with. Let's dig into it.
Portfolio checkup
Buy/Sell
I'm buying the Cleveland Browns. What? You remind me that they're 2-5 (and that they're still the Browns). Fair points. I'm buying on their price to make the playoffs more than anything, and I'm selling their opponents for the next seven weeks. You can get as high as +410 on this proposition in the current market, and I think it's an excellent time to bet it.
OK, hear me out. Cleveland opponents so far this season are 36-17. The Browns have already faced five of the top 10 teams in the league. Their remaining opponents have a combined record of 21-45-1. Cleveland has faced the second-toughest schedule to date -- and faces the second easiest going forward. The Browns actually played well in New England outside of the three turnovers on three consecutive snaps in the first quarter. They gained 310 yards to the Patriots' 318, but they actually did it on fewer plays and won the yards-per-play battle (5.3 to 4.8).
Would +410 sound as ridiculous if the Browns were 6-5? They are now 3-point favorites in Denver thanks to the mysterious Joe Flacco injury that gives Brandon Allen, who was claimed off waivers Sept. 1 from the Rams, the start under center for the Broncos. Cleveland then hosts the Bills (we know how I feel about them after last week), the Steelers and the Dolphins in three straight home games. Reaching 6-5 is very achievable. At that point, it's a road game in Pittsburgh, a home game against the Bengals and then a road game in Arizona before facing the Ravens (a team the Browns already beat this year) and then the finale in Cincinnati. Would 9-5 going into the Baltimore rematch surprise anybody? Even at 8-6, the Browns would be favorites in their final two games with a shot at finishing 10-6 and in a good position to snag a playoff spot. Even sitting at 9-7 would put them in the playoff mix. I'm taking a shot.
I also wanted to revisit the San Francisco 49ers division bet we made in Week 6 at +165. Although the Niners have won every game they have played since and have a matchup against the Cardinals on deck as 10-point favorites, prices of -177 and -180 are still available in the market. After a likely win versus Arizona this Thursday night, the 49ers will get extra days to prepare for a home game against the Seahawks (currently 6-2). They will be favorites (I project -3.7), and a win would strengthen their lead in the division even more. The 49ers have outscored their opponents this season by 130 points. Seattle has outscored opponents by only 12. The 49ers rank No. 1 in DVOA; their results are no joke. Seattle grades out to have the most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL. There is still incredible value on the 49ers to win the division, and if you missed it in Week 6, I would grab it now.
Early line moves: Week 9
Agree
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening spread: Eagles -3
Current: Eagles -4.5
The Eagles opened in some places at -3 at home against the stumbling Bears. Chicago has dropped three straight and has shown major deficiencies on the offensive side of the football (30th in the NFL in yards per play; only the Dolphins and Jets are worse). The Eagles were my biggest bet in Week 8 in Buffalo, and while some of that was selling high on the Bills, Philly has certainly been undervalued in the market after a slow start to its season. I still grade the Eagles as the eighth-best team in the league, while the Bears grade 16th. The move to -4.5 and -5 in this matchup was certainly warranted, and I don't anticipate we will see it coming back down. At this point, the main takeaway is that I wouldn't consider the Bears after the move on the Eagles. If it looked too extreme and you were considering hitting the submit button on Chicago, I think the move was fair and I'd stay away.
Pick: Pass
Agree
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Opening spread: Patriots -4
Current: Patriots -3.5
The Ravens were sitting as high as +5 at some sportsbooks on Sunday coming off of their bye week for their home game against the Patriots. They appear to be everybody's trendy Week 9 home underdog, but the move to +3.5 is the correct one. My personal projection for this matchup is Baltimore +2.6, and I've been as generous as possible grading New England throughout the season. The Patriots' offense ranks only 23rd in yards per play, and while their defense is setting records, a team like Baltimore that has the ability to run the football and limit mistakes and turnovers is the perfect opponent to give New England its first loss. The Patriots are giving up 4.6 yards per rush (ranks No. 21), and the Ravens are gaining 5.5 yards per rush on the ground (No. 2). Only the Browns have been more efficient in the run game, and that's because they just gained 7.2 yards per carry against the Patriots. I'm not sure how long the hook on the key number will last, and I still think the matchup sets up perfectly for the Ravens. I'd still take the +3.5s at this point.
Pick: Ravens +3.5
Disagree
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Opening spread: 49ers -8.5
Current: 49ers -10
The 49ers were as low as 6.5-point favorites both in and outside of the United States earlier this week. They didn't last very long, nor did the -7s. With the current market as high as San Francisco -10 in Arizona on a short-week Thursday night game, I'd be inclined only to back the Cardinals at this point. Arizona's game in New Orleans this past Sunday was a little closer than the final score would lead on. The Cardinals were trailing by just four points late in the third quarter facing a fourth-and-1 on their own 29-yard line. Kliff Kingsbury decided to go for it -- which was the right call -- and they failed. It set up the Saints for an easy touchdown, and the game unraveled at that point. Arizona had just won three straight games going into Week 8, so I'm somewhat surprised to see a line move this big.
Pick: Cardinals at +10 or more